国际能源署-大非洲之角的清洁能源转型（英）-2022.10-145正式版.doc

Clean Energy Transitions in the Greater Horn of Africa每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYThe IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement andmuch more. Throughits work, the IEAadvocates policies thatwill enhance thereliability, affordabilityand sustainability ofenergy in its31 member countries,11 association countriesand beyond.Please note that thispublication is subject tospecific restrictions that limitits use and distribution. Theterms and conditions areavailable online atwww.iea.org/t&c/This publication and anymap included herein arewithout prejudice to thestatus of or sovereignty overany territory, to thedelimitation of internationalfrontiers and boundaries andto the name of any territory,city or area.Source: IEA. All rightsreserved.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.orgIEA memberIEA associationcountries:countries:AustraliaArgentinaAustriaBrazilBelgiumChinaCanadaEgyptCzech RepublicIndiaDenmarkIndonesiaEstoniaMoroccoFinlandSingaporeFranceSouth AfricaGermanyThailandGreeceUkraineHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEAClean Energy Transitions in the Greater Horn of AfricaAbstractAbout this reportThe future of Africas energy sector is important globally. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is actively supporting evidence-based energy policy making in African countries with the aim of achieving affordable and clean energy, in line with United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7. This includes ensuring universal access for all, promoting increased energy security and affordability, and accelerating the development of clean energy systems across Africa, through a sustainable and accelerated regional energy system transformation.The IEA is committed to developing clean, reliable and affordable energy systems, which are essential for achieving sustainable development objectives. It is also committed to helping African countries use energy sector transformation to cope with and recover from crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian Federations (“Russia” hereafter) invasion of Ukraine, which have destabilised economies and energy systems. This can be done by improving data, informing decision making and guiding policy implementation, in collaboration with local, regional and international institutions.This report focuses on the eight countries in the greater Horn of Africa region, here defined as Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda. It recommends pathways to accelerate clean energy transitions and analyses energy trends across the region. It also highlights policy-relevant best practices for accelerating energy access, energy sector development and transition to cleaner energy sources. The report includes key policy recommendations and identifies opportunities that can help policy makers design clean, cost-effective and efficient energy systems for the future.The IEA will present the findings of this report at an event in October 2022, with participants from the eight countries. Participants will have the opportunity to discuss clean energy transition pathways, best practices, success stories, lessons learned and recommendations. The aim is to spur political will for accelerated transitions to clean energy and robust interregional stakeholder dialogues, to help country policy makers make effective, high-impact policies.This report is part of an IEA initiative to promote clean energy transitions in Africa through enhanced regional energy collaboration. The initiative focuses on three regions (North Africa, the Sahel and the greater Horn of Africa), and includes technical workshops and reports that assess energy sector conditions and propose pathways for accelerated transformation. A financial contribution by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs made this study by the IEA Clean EnergyTransitions Programme possible.reserved.All rightsIEA.PAGE | 3Clean Energy Transitions in the Greater Horn of AfricaAcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsThis report was prepared by the Africa desk team at the office of Global Energy Relation, in co-operation with cross-agency directorates and offices of the International Energy Agency (IEA). It was designed and directed by Rebecca Gaghen, Head of Division for Europe, Middle East, Africa and Latin America at the office of Global Energy Relations, and Laura Cozzi, Chief Energy Modeller. It was co-ordinated by Syrine El Abed, Africa Programme Officer.IEA Deputy Executive Director Mary Warlick provided essential guidance. The main authors were Syrine El Abed, Africa Programme Officer, Emma Gordon, Energy and Investment Policy Analyst, and Arnaud Rouget, Africa Programme Manager.Key contributors included Zakia Adam (statistics), Yasmine Arsalane (macroeconomic and power), Amel Ahmed Boudouda (research), Olivia Chen (employment), Trevor Criswell (renewables), Darlain Edeme (electricity prices), Tae-Yoon Kim (oil and gas, minerals), Martin Kueppers (geospatial analyses), Luca Lo Re (climate), Rita Madeira (investments), Taylor Morisson (statistics), Ksenia Petrichenko (efficiency), Hugo Salamanca (efficiency), Gianluca Tonolo (access) and Daniel Wetzel (drafting). Historical energy data came from the IEA Energy Data Centre teams, projections were developed with support from Enerdata, and some drafting was conducted by Bethy Belay and Hind Couzin, independent consultants. Other contributors included: Regina Asanyo, Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil, Tim Gould, Maximilian Jarrett, Charlotte Kürsten, Ermi Miao, Shawn Munanga, Brian Owino, Jasmine Samantar and Gabriel Saive. Thanks go to Jad Mouawad, Head of the IEA Communications and Digital Office, and colleagues Astrid Dumond, Clara Vallois, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin and Therese Walsh for their expertise producing this report. Caren Brown edited the report.Special thanks go to the country focal points and government teams of each focus country. All their comments and suggestions were of great value.Yasir Abdalla SaiedSudan - Ministry of Energy and MiningAbdullahi Ahmed AliSomalia - Ministry of Energy and Water ResourcesRichard BarisorSouth Sudan - Ministry of Energy and DamsIsmail Bashir HajiSomalia - Ministry of Energy and Water ResourcesMohamedMesfin Dabi SebokaEthiopia - Ministry of Water and EnergyAbdourahman DaherDjibouti - Ministry of Energy and Natural ResourcesYiheyis EshetuEthiopia - Ministry of Water and Energyreserved.rightsAllIEA.PAGE | 4Clean Energy Transitions in the Greater Horn of AfricaAcknowledgementsDesbeleEritrea - Ministry of Energy and MinesGebrezgiabher HagosTesfai GhebrehiwotEritrea - Ministry of Energy and MinesUsamah KaggwaUganda - Ministry of Energy and Mineral DevelopmentGouled MohamedDjibouti - Ministry of Energy and Natural ResourcesFrancis Ngare NderituKenya - Ministry of EnergyPaul OkudiUganda - Bureau of StatisticsTom RemisSouth Sudan - Ministry of Energy and DamsSafia TageldeinSudan - Electricity Holding Company LimitedAbdallahPeter ThoboraKenya - Ministry of EnergyMwangiMany officials and international experts provided input and reviewed preliminary drafts of the report. They include:Hary AndriantavyClub EREdi AssoumouMinesParis TechWondwosen BogaleAddis Ababa University Institute of TechnologyThed BrouwerThe Netherlands - Ministry of Foreign AffairsKimball ChenGlobal LPG Partnership (GLPGP)Nicolas CoentInternational Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)Rebecca CollyerEuropean Climate FoundationEmanuela ColomboPolitecnico di MilanoNadia DeniseUnited Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)OuedraogoSaliem FakirAfrican Climate FoundationNiklas ForsellInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA)Elias GabisaBahir Dar Institute of TechnologyJean-Yves GarnierFormer IEA EDC headFalchetta GiacomoInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA)Raymond GilpinUnited Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)Niokabi GitahiAgence Française de Développement (AFD)IEA. All rights reserved.PAGE | 5Clean Energy Transitions in the Greater Horn of AfricaAcknowledgementsJose Ignacio Perez- Comillas University Massachusetts Institute of Technology ArriagaThomas Jang KanSouth Sudan - Ministry of Water Resources & IrrigationMax JarrettIndependent ConsultantOluseyi JosephInternational Finance Corporation (IFC)AdeyemoAnthony KamaraFormer UN Sustainable Energy for All (SEforAll) StaffMichael KellyWorld LPG Association (WLPGA)Shehu KhaleelSADC Centre for Renewable Energy & Energy EfficiencyIbraheem(SACREEE)Franklin Koffi GbedeyAfrican Development Bank (AfDB)Anibor KraghaAfrican Refiners & Distributors AssociationGlada LahnChatham HouseMatthew LeachEnergy ConsultantPedro LiberatoPortugal - Ministry of Environment and Climate ActionElzen Loes-vandenThe Netherlands - Ministry of Foreign AffairsWilliam MadaraUnited States Agency for International Development(USAID)Senatla MamahlokoCouncil for Scientific & Industrial ResearchReginald MaxTBD GroupEmi MizunoSustainable Energy for All (SEforAll)Amos MwangiUnited Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)Antony NjeruAfrican Development Bank (AfDB)KarembuTowela Nyirenda-African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD)JereBrian OmenyiSustainable Energy Access Forum Kenya (SEAF-K)Andrew PurvisWorldsteelElisa PuzzoloUniversity of LiverpoolVenkata RamayyaJimma UniversityAnchaOlivier ReynoldsGOGLAEbisa RegassaEthiopia - Ministry of Water and EnergyCamilla RoccaMo Ibrahim FoundationAna RovzarRES4AfricaIEA. All rights reserved.PAGE | 6Clean Energy Transitions in the Greater Horn of AfricaAcknowledgementsClaudia SchwartzUnited States Agency for International DevelopmentPower Africa (USAID PA)Setu PelzInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA)Rebekah ShirleyWorld Resources Institute (WRI)Kristina SkierkaPower for AllRobert StonerMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyDinesh SurroopUniversity of MauritiusMario TotInternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)Harry VerhoevenColumbia UniversityDavid VictorUC San Diego School of Global Policy and StrategyIEA. All rights reserved.PAGE | 7Clean Energy Transitions in the Greater Horn of AfricaTable of contentsTable of contentsExecutive summary9Introduction15Chapter 1. Regional overview191.1. Regional context201.2. Energy drivers251.3. Energy trends331.4. Climate change401.5. Social factors: Employment and gender45Chapter 2. SDG 7.1 Ensuring universal energy access492.1. Electricity access status502.2. Clean cooking access status582.3. Energy access outlook62Chapter 3. SDG 7.2 Accelerating deployment of renewables673.1. Renewable energy status683.2. Renewables deployment outlook77Chapter 4. SDG 7.3 Making progress in energy efficiency834.1. Energy efficiency status844.3. Energy efficiency outlook93Chapter 5. Energy investment985.1. Investment overview995.2. Extractives sector investments: Hydrocarbons and minerals1025.3. Clean power, access and end-use investments1085.4. Sources of finance113Annex A - Region & country profiles117Annex B - Data references134IEA. All rights reserved.PAGE | 8Clean Energy Transitions in the Greater Horn of AfricaExecutive summaryExecutive summaryThe greater Horn of Africa is growing rapidly, but secure, affordable, and sustainable energy development lagsThe greater Horn of Africa defined in this report as Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda represents nearly a quarter of sub-Saharan Africas GDP, and is home to some of the fastest growing economies, but also many areas that face ongoing conflict and instability.Energy consumption has grown at 3% per year over the last decade, but the region remains energy-deprived. Half the regions population lacks access to electricity and only one in six people have access to modern cooking fuels. However, averages mask large disparities in the region Kenya has one of the highest access rates in sub-Saharan Africa, while other countries lack centralised grid infrastructure altogether. Total energy demand in the region was 120 Mtoe in 2020 less than the combined energy consumption of Belgium and the Netherlands but with ten times the number of people. Bioenergy often in the form of gathered firewood and agricultural waste meets around 80% of demand.Most modern energy demand is met through oil products, largely for transport, and electricity, largely in households and industry. The regions power sector has doubled its output over the past decade, and is one of the worlds most renewable systems today, with over 85% of generation coming from renewables. Large hydropower projects in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Kenya dominate the power mix today; the region has massive, under-utilised potential for solar, wind, and geothermal as well. Many of the regions smaller countries, historically dependent on imports, are installing their first large-scale solar PV projects, such as the Juba PV farm in South Sudan.Energy infrastructure has struggled to keep pace with the regions growth grids remain unreliable, many countries remain dependent on costly fuel imports, and utilities are in financial duress. Adequate energy planning has been undermined by a lack of data a challenge addressed in part by IEA training programmes in the region, and this reports unprecedented detail and analysis on the regions energy system.Future economic growth will rely on expanding