德勤+2022年能源转型趋势报告-31正式版.doc

A report in collaboration withEnergy Transition Trends Report 2022每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。Energy Transition Trends Report 2022ContentsIntroduction4Methodology6Delivering net zero8Governance, society, people14Markets, finance and investment17Clean technology and electrification21The industry transition25Outlook and conclusions29References30Energy Transition Trends Report 2022ForewordThis decade is our chance to stand up and play our part in creating a net-zero future.While theres still much uncertainty around how we will achieve this, we know it is going to take collaboration from leaders across all countries, sectors and societies to make it happen. Companies from the energy and industrials sectors are at the forefront of this change and their investment in technology and innovation will be critical.This survey of more than 2,800 executives from a broad range of industries shines a light on the biggest challenges and opportunities facing industry leaders over the next 12 months as they plan and execute their decarbonisation strategies.The overall results indicate theres a positive sentiment among executives that their businesses will achieve net-zero operations by 2050. The outlier is the industrials sector, where a quarter of respondents had doubts over whether this industry would be able to cut emissions to zero by 2050.Beyond governments, the survey found energy companies are seen as having a high or very high impact on the energy transition by almost 89 percent of respondents, but nearly 81 percent placed emphasis on the financial sector to drive the process.The question of how we fund a just energy transition is top of mind for executives and strategies on how to couple their environmental, social and governance (ESG) responsibilities with this could lead to some innovative solutions.Id be delighted to speak to you about the results and potential impact for your business in more detail.Julian Small, UK Energy, Resources & Industrials Leader, Deloittejsmalldeloitte.co.ukEnergy Transition Trends Report 2022IntroductionThe worlds energy sector enters 2022 having seen both the best and worst of possible transition outcomes. Despite a clear consensus now that global temperature rises must be kept within 2 degreesand preferably 1.5 of pre-industrial levels, it took the coronavirus pandemic and resultant restrictions on national and international travel to, albeit temporarily, curtail the worlds carbon emissions.The pandemic also helped demonstrate the value of clean energy sources, which proved more resilient to the supplychain and workforce challenges brought about by COVID-19. By the end of 2021, an economic bounce-back was firing demand for fossil fuels, driving up energy prices around the world and contributing to a watering downof coal phase-out language at the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26). At the start of 2022, the scale of commitment towards the energy transitionis stronger than ever before, with approximately 21% of the worlds largest 2,000 companies now committed to net zero targetsi. At the same time, the climate challenge facing society continues to grow.Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the burning of fossil fuels for energy and cement production.35 Billlion t30 Billlion t25 Billlion t20 Billlion t15 Billlion t10 Billlion t5 Billlion t0175018001850190019502020Source: Global Carbon Project.ii Note: Land use change is not included.Energy Transition Trends Report 2022IntroductionCO2 emissions are measured on a production basis, meaning they do not adjust for emissions embedded in traded goods.Hopes that this positive trend might continue into 2021 were initially borne out as a growing move towards the adoption of ESG policies led many corporationsto increase investments in clean energy procurement. But hopes that the world was on a clear path to decarbonisation were short lived. Global demand for coal is expected to reach record highs this year.iiiAnd the consequences of continuing carbon emissions are the starkest they have ever been, with last year seeing the hottest ocean temperatures in historyiv and warming permafrost even putting Arctic pipelines at risk.v At thiscrucial point in time, Reuters Events and Deloitte have teamed up to carry out a major study into corporate attitudes and initiatives relating to the energy transition.This report covers a broad range of industries and provides insights into our ability to reduce net emissions to zero and keep global warming to within 2 degreesof pre-industrial levels, as stipulated in the 2015 Paris Agreement. It covers five key themes:1. Delivering Net Zero2. Governance, Society, and People3. Markets, Finance, and Investment4. Clean Technology and Electrification5. The Industry TransitionEnergy Transition Trends Report 2022MethodologyThis report is based on research carried out in late 2021, drawing 2,800-plus responses from professionals within the Reuters Events energy transition and Deloitte network communities. The respondents were predominantly fromEurope, North America and Asia and were drawn from a range of industries, with a focus on energy production, analysts and consultancy.Breakdown of survey respondents by location.0%10%20%30%40%Energy Transition Trends Report 2022MethodologyMore than 76 percent of the respondents held managerial or higher posts within their organisations, and more than 55 percent were director level or higher. The sample included more than 450 board-level or C-suiterespondents. Where appropriate, the study includes specific analyses of the responses from this group, for comparison with those from the sample overall.Breakdown of survey respondents by primary business type.0%10%20%30%40%Energy Transition Trends Report 2022xxxxxxBreakdown of survey respondents by job title0%10%20%30%DisclaimerThis report contains general information only and Reuters Events and Deloitte are not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax or other professional advice or services.This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any investment decision or action that may affect your business.Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. Reuters Events and Deloitte shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this publication.Energy Transition Trends Report 2022xxxxxxDelivering Net ZeroKey finding: While governments are stillexpected to provide leadership on net-zero targets, companies are increasinglyseizing the initiative in implementingdecarbonisation pathways.Energy Transition Trends Report 2022Delivering net zeroA growing scientific consensus around the reality of global warming,vi along with clear signs of climate change, such as worsening wildfires, storms, and floods, have helped galvanise actions designed to reduce carbon emissions. The last year, especially, has seen hundreds of companies pledging to become net-zero carbon emitters, with many aiming to achieve the target by 2040vii, a decade ahead of the Paris Agreement date.These companies include energy companies such as Fortescue, UrbanX Renewables Group and Zenergi.viii The increasing sense of urgency regarding emissions reduction is reflected in our survey findings, with almost 65 percent of respondents saying their organisations were highly committed to the energy transition and/or achieving net-zero emissions.A further 19 percent said these issues were being discussed at corporate level, and only 2 percent claimed their organisations were silent on the energy transition. The implication is that thousands of organisations are now planning and implementing pathways. But companyleadership teams do not see themselves as leading this transition.Company leadership teams do not see themselves as leading this transition.Of course, an arguably more interesting and alarming finding is that a third of the energy industry respondents do not have a commitment.Instead, 93 percent of the sampleand a similar percentage of C-suite respondentsbelieve that national governments will have a high or very high impact on driving the energy transition. Beyond governments, energy companiesof which there were roughly 900in the surveywere seen as having a high or very high impact on the energy transition by almost 89 percent of respondents. Nearly 81 percent of respondents placed emphasis on the financial sector to drive the process.Energy Transition Trends Report 2022Delivering net zeroAnswers to the question: What impact do you think the following actors will have on driving the energy transition forward?Very HighHighLowVery LowNationalGovernmentEnergy CompaniesCorporatesFinancial SectorNo ImpactConsumersSocietal Activists0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Corporates were seen as having high impact by 56 percent of the sample, and a very high impact by less than 22 percent. The very high ranking is only a little higher than that attributed to consumers, at 20 percent. Further proof of the importance of governments in leading moves to decarbonisation came from a question in the research where almost 92 percent of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that public sector leadership would be crucial for the energy transition.Somewhat worryingly, almost 71 percent of the sample (and nearly 76 percent of C-suite respondents) alsosaid the public sector is failing to drive the transition at the rate required. Nevertheless, government actions do appear to be influencing corporate plans, with more than 56 percent of respondents saying the outcome of COP26 would have a direct impact on business strategy within the next five years. The exact nature of that impact remains unclear. On the issue of what types of emissions should be covered by decarbonisation plans, there is a wide range of views. Over a third of the sample said energy and industrial sectors should take primary responsibility for their Scope 1 emissions, which are those arising directly from owned or controlled sources such as power plants.Energy Transition Trends Report 2022Delivering net zeroAnswers to the question: To what extent do you agree with these statements?QuestionStrongly AgreeAgreeUnsureDisagreeStrongly disagreeStrong public sector64%28%5%2%1%leadership is crucialto achieving asuccessful energytransitionThe public sector is28%44%19%9%1%failing to drive theenergy transition atthe rate neededThe outcomes from19%38%31%10%3%COP26 will directlyimpact on mybusiness strategywithin the next fiveyearsJust under another third believed responsibility should cover Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, which come from energy that is purchased as part of business operations. And roughly another third thought companies should also be responsible for all other indirect emissions that occur in a companys value chain, known as Scope 3 greenhouse gases.Regardless of Scope, there is growing confidence that companies may be able to deliver on net-zero strategies.It is unclear if this disparity of views reflects differing levels of ambition or is a consequence of the range of decarbonisation challenges facing different industries, since some companies will likely find it easier than others to eliminate Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions. Regardless of Scope, there is growing confidence that companies may be able to deliver on net-zero strategies.Almost 74 percent of the overall sample, and nearly 81 percent of C-suite respondents, said the necessary actions were being put in place in their organisations. There is reasonable confidence among survey respondents in being able to achieve net-zero status well ahead of 2050. More than 10 percent of respondents said their companies had already cut net emissions to zero. Among companies that are putting the right actions in place, a further 20 percent were expecting to be net zero by 2025.Energy Transition Trends Report 2022Delivering net zeroEmissions Scopes that energy and industrial sectors should take primary responsibility for.Scope 1Scope 2Scope 3None0%10%20%30%40%50%Answers to the question: Are you confident that your company is putting the necessary actions in place to deliver its net zero strategy?YesNo0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Of those respondents that feel their companies are putting the necessary actions in place, almost 65 percent believe their organisation should be net zero by 2030, the sample optimistically predicts. Less than 5 percent believed the process would last beyond 2050.Energy Transition Trends Report 2022Delivering net zeroWhen companies that are putting the necessary actions in place expect to become net-zero.It already is20252030