2022年商业地产趋势报告（EN）.pdf

2022 Trend Report forCommercial Real Estate Uneven Recovery and Pandemics Lasting Effects MARCH 2022 TRENDS OUTLOOK REPORTPARTNERSHIPSERIESAuthorsZane Doyle,Phoenix American Zane Doyle is the Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer for BusinessDevelopment at Phoenix American.Before joining Phoenix American,heserved as Vice President of Client Services at Cole Capital and Executive VicePresident of Operations for Everest Financial Advisors.Ned Montenecourt,Phoenix American Ned Montenecourt,CRCP,is Senior Vice President and Chief Risk andCompliance Officer at Phoenix American.Previously,he was the ChiefCompliance Officer for BlackRocks Distribution and Execution entities.Hehas tenure in financial services through executive roles at Bank of AmericaMerrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank.Joseph Penner,Founder,Hill Street Realty,HSR Management Joseph Penner has worked in nearly every facet of the real estate industry,including lending,investment management,acquisition,ground-up development,value-added re-development andleasing,land development,asset management and even hands-on onsite property management.He founded Hill Street Realty and HSR Management Inc.(HSR)in 2001.Together they provide a fullsuite of real estate investment and management services focusing on apartments,office,retail,development and land entitlement.Mr.Penner has served as an executive for many of the realestate industrys most noteworthy institutions backed by many of the worlds largest institutionalinvestors to execute a variety of real estate investment strategies.James Sprow,Senior Vice President,Research,Blue Vault PartnersJames Sprow is an Associate Professor of Business,teaching corporate finance,investments,managerial accounting,business statistics,international business and entrepreneurship in bothundergraduate and MBA programs for over 20 years.Mr.Sprow was President and owner of aprecision machine parts manufacturing firm,has provided consulting to small businesses,writtencourses in finance and economics,and has published articles on finance and investments.He hastaught courses in international finance,international economics,and globalization in Singaporeand Indonesia.Mr.Sprow has a Ph.D.in Finance from Washington State University.ContributorsThe U.S.economy and real estate markets are reopening following the biggest economic shock in U.S.history.Although Covid-19 cases are subsiding from recent Omicron variant-fueled highs,the outlook is far from certain.Rental apartments are one of the hottest sectors coming out of the pandemic,marked by surging demand and alow risk of oversupply.During the pandemic,secondary cities in the South and West have significantly outperformedthe coastal gateway metros in occupancy and rent growth.Doom-and-gloom predictions of an eviction tsunamiappear to have been vastly overstated.The office market has been hit hard by the pandemic with a dramatic slowdown in new leasing activity and atorrent of new sublease space coming to market.Many major employers planned to reopen offices in the late summerand early fall;however,rising case numbers prompted delays.The work-from-home effect will continue to unfold as70%of large office occupiers plan to reduce their office footprints by 10%to 30%in the next three years.The pandemic and the sudden shutdown of large swaths of the economy in 2020 caused an explosion in warehousedemand across the country as spending moved online.While the e-commerce revolution pre-dates the pandemic,this sudden shift accelerated the trend by 3 to 5 years,virtually overnight.Performance in the retail property sector varies widely by region,submarket,and retail property subtype.Secondary cities like Phoenix and Austin have outperformed gateway cities like New York and San Francisco.Suburban retail properties have tended to outperform main street retail in major cities.The e-commerce revolution,along with changing shopping habits and shifting consumer preferences,are blurring the line between brick-and-mortar retail and logistics real estate.The U.S.hotel sector is fresh off a surprisingly strong peak summer travel season,marked by significant increasesin occupancy and record-high average daily rates.Despite the strong peak season,the hotel market is not out of thewoods yet.With the peak leisure travel season now over and business travel still weak,industry observers expectperformance to continue to soften.Real estate investment activity is bouncing back with$177 billion in transactions during the latest quarter,anincrease of 151%year-over-year.Total return for core,institutional-quality real estate jumped 5.2%,the largestquarterly total return since 2005.Environmental,social,and governance(ESG)factors are coming into sharper focusat all stages of the investment process.Investors have started to move back out on the risk spectrum as low interestrates and heavy competition in highly liquid markets squeeze cap rates.PHOENIX AMERICANMARCH 2022Executive SummaryPHOENIX AMERICANMARCH 2022IntroductionAs the fund administrator for non-traded REITs,privateplacements,securitizations and a wide variety of realestate debt and equity funds,Phoenix American has aunique perspective on the ongoing impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on commercial real estate(CRE).Operating at the crossroads of fund managers,investors,financial advisors and data aggregators,ourvantage point allows us to observe trends and offerinsights into the dynamics of various CRE sectors.In this report,we look at the state of CRE as the countryemerges from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.Nearly two years after the Covid-19 shutdowns and oneyear after the beginning of the vaccine rollout,fundmanagers are looking for signs of a post-pandemicenvironment.But for commercial real estate,thesignals are decidedly mixed.With 64%of Americans fully vaccinated,the rate ofincrease continues to slow even while the countryemerges from the unprecedented spike in Covid-19cases from the Omicron variant.Commercial real estate markets have,in many cases,been irretrievably altered by the pandemic.Rapidlychanging conditions led tenants,operators andinvestors to adapt in ways and at speeds unimaginablein normal times.New sectors were born,stagnatingsectors plummeted,pre-pandemic trends accelerated.Sectoral shifts that once appeared temporary are nowintegrated into a new equilibrium.This paper looks atthe major commercial property sectors and highlightsthe significant shifts within each,including which could fade as the economy reopens,and which ones arehere to stay.Vaccine hesitancy,mandates andquestions around how long vaccine immunity lastscloud the picture further.The atmosphere is havingvastly disparate effects on different CRE sectors.Here,we examine some of the major trends.As the outline of an exit from the pandemic crisis startsto take shape,fund managers are looking at the risksahead,the opportunities that have emerged and theoverall prospects of the various CRE sectors through theCovid-19 era and beyond.Vaccine hesitancy,mandates andquestions around how longvaccine immunity lasts are havingvastly disparate effects ondifferent CRE sectors.The U.S.economy and real estate markets are nowreopening following the biggest economic shock in U.S.history.Employment is bouncing back,with new hiringramping up over recent months and the unemploymentrate falling.If the current pace of hiring keeps up,payroll jobs could return to their pre-pandemic peak byJuly 2022.The outlook,however,is far from certain.Covid-19 case numbers in the U.S.are declining fromOmicron-driven highs at the time of this writing,but thepossibility of new variants adds to ongoing uncertainty.PHOENIX AMERICANMARCH 2022Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22200MM 150MM 100MM 50MM 0MM Source:U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics(Based on 6-month average of 508,000 per month)Payroll Jobs Are Bouncing BackIn November,President Biden signed a bipartisan billauthorizing$550 billion in new spending for roads,bridges,rail,broadband internet,public transit,cybersecurity and environmental restoration.Although the funds will take time to find their way to theprojects that will stimulate the economy,the legislationrepresents a significant step toward the largest newpublic investment in infrastructure in decades.Roads,Bridges,Major Projects26.8%Passenger,Freight Rail16.1%Broadband Infrastructure15.8%Modernizing Water Infrastructure13.4%Disaster Resiliency,Cybersecurity11.4%Public Transit9.5%Environmental Restoration5.1%Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure8%$550B in New Infrastructure ProjectsSource:ReutersPHOENIX AMERICANMARCH 2022Rental apartments are one of the hottest sectorscoming out of the pandemic,marked by surgingdemand and a low risk of oversupply.Apartment market analysts report the strongestdemand in 30-plus years.RealPage notes that netdemand for market-rate apartments increased by673,000 in 2021,which exceeds the previous peak from2000 by 66%.This sent the occupancy rate to an all-time high of 97.5%.Not surprisingly,rent growth hasalso reached new heights effective asking rents grew14.4%in 2021,surpassing the previous record from2000-2001,according to RealPage.While new supply may be elevated in some regions,national multifamily housing production has notadjusted upwards in response to skyrocketing rents.Looking ahead,an increase in new supply appearsunlikely.According to the National Association of HomeBuilders,high building material prices,productionbottlenecks and labor shortages are constraining thesupply response that might otherwise have happenedin response to surging demand and accelerating rentgrowth.In the vast majority of regions and submarkets,multifamily housing is undersupplied.MultifamilyQ1 2003Q4 2003Q3 2004Q2 2005Q1 2006Q4 2006Q3 2007Q2 2008Q1 2009Q4 2009Q3 2010Q2 2011Q1 2012Q4 2012Q3 2013Q2 2014Q1 2015Q4 2015Q3 2016Q2 2017Q1 2018Q4 2018Q3 2019Q2 2020Q1 202175 50 25 0 Rental Apartments Continuously UndersuppliedSource:National Association of Home Builders Multifamily Production IndexDuring the pandemic,high-cost gateway cities withdense urban cores saw an increased outflow ofhouseholds.This includes San Francisco,New York,LosAngeles and Washington,D.C.Conversely,migrationflows accelerated toward lower-cost secondary cities inthe South and West,including Austin,Charlotte,Dallas,Houston and Atlanta.Not surprisingly,secondary citiesof the South and West have significantly outperformedthe coastal gateway metros in occupancy and rentgrowth since the beginning of the pandemic.One significant unknown in the apartment market is theeffect of the end of the Federal Eviction Moratorium,which was struck down by the Supreme Court in August2021.The Center on Budget Policy reported 11 millionAmericans were behind on rent payments and riskedeviction once the moratorium ended,while the UrbanInstitute reported 4 million facing possible eviction.The reality seems likely far less dire.As Jay Parsons ofRealPage points out,doom-and-gloom predictions ofan eviction tsunami appear to have been vastlyoverstated,with most analyses based on anexperimental dataset from the US Census BureausHousehold Pulse Survey,which has a very small samplesize and severe problems with data collection methods.More accurate data on actual rent collections from theNational Multi-Housing Council show that 93.1%ofprofessionally-managed apartment units paid rent ontime in November 2021,comparable with NovemberDoom-and-gloom predictions ofan eviction tsunami appear tohave been vastly overstated.2022 Phoenix American Financial Services,Inc.Commercial Real Estate in 2022PHOENIX AMERICANMARCH 2022Apr-19May-19Jun-19Jul-19Aug-19Sep-19Oct-19Nov-19Dec-19Jan-20Feb-20Mar-20Apr-20May-20Jun-20Jul-20Aug-20Sep-20Oct-20Nov-20Dec-20Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21100%75%50%25%0%Rental Collections Running in Mid-90%RangeSource:National Multi Housing Council2019s rent collection rate of 95.2%.While there may bepockets of the apartment market where rent collectionshave declined significantly,broadly speaking,rentcollection rates in the apartment market continue to berobust.Student Housing Heats UpWhile the Covid-19 pandemic hit the student housingsector particularly hard,students are returning tocampus after a year of mostly remote learning,sendingstudent housing demand surging upward.Studenthousing pre-lease activity for Fall 2022 is off to a strongstart,as 31.5%of all beds across 175 universities arealready accounted for,as of December 2021,accordingto RealPage.This is nearly equal to the Fall 2020 pre-leasing level two years ago of 31.7%.Rent growth is picking up accordingly.According toRealPage,annual effective rent change reached 3.1%,easily exceeding the 0.2%growth in December 2020 anddouble the December 2019 and December 2018 rates ofabout 1.5%annual effective rent growth.Senior Housing Recovering At A Measured PaceThe pandemic caused both a wave of move-outs and aslowdown in move-ins,leading to a sharp reduction inoverall occupancies among all three subsectors of thesenior housing market independent living,assistedliving and nursing care.However,as the latest available data show,occupancies are starting to recover.Overall seniorhousing occupancy increased 1.4%in Q3 2021 to 80.1%and 1%in Q4 2021 to 81%.The independent livingoccupancy rate increased to 83.6%,the assisted livingoccupancy rate increased to more than 78%and thenursing care occupancy rate increased to 77.2%.In terms of investor interest in the sector,CBREs SeniorHousing&Care Investor Survey indicates that theassisted living subsector garnered the most investorinterest(33%),followed by independent living(22%)and active adult(15%).Broadly speaking,rent collectionrates in the apartment marketcontinue to be robust.The assisted living subsectorgarnered the most investorinterest.PHOENIX AMERICANMARCH 2022PHOENIX AMERICANMARCH 2022The office market has been hit hard by the pandemicfrom a dramatic slowdown in new leasing activity and atorrent of new sublease space coming to market.Newdemand was effectively frozen throughout the countrythrough much of 2020.As of Q4 2021,the office market is beginning to thaw.Leasing velocity improved by 9.4%with the full-yearleasing volume 14.6%,placing it above 2020 levels.However,landlord concessions rose to record levels inmany markets,according to CBRE.The quarter was thefirst since the start of the pandemic to experiencepositive net absorption.The overall vacancy rate stoodat 16.7%,with a 22%availability rate across major cities.All eyes are on the future of office work.Will the greatmajority of workers return to the office once thepandemic is behind us?Or has traditional office workbeen permanently decoupled from actual office space?The answer has monumental implications for the officespace in the country.One thing does appear certain office workers nowexpect an unprecedented level of flexibility over how,where and when they work.And employe