2020年度全球天然气报告.docx

ContentsExecutive summary41 /Recent global gas trends7Highlights8Global gas market: 2019 overview9The impact of Covid-1914Cost-competitiveness17Sustainability21Security of supply252/Looking ahead29Highlights30The post-pandemic recovery31The role of natural gasin the future energy mix32Demand: Gas demand and infrastructure outlook34Supply: New discoveriesand supply expansion38Markets: Growing trade, hubs and derivatives41Sustainability: toward a low-carbon gas industry443 /Decarbonization opportunities for gas: focus on hydrogen47Highlights48Decarbonizing gas: the opportunity49The basics and benefits of hydrogen52Current trends and potential54The economics of hydrogen57The role of infrastructure62The need for policy66The U.K., France and Spain had the largest gains. This resulted in higher import terminal utilization in 2019 than the previous year (Figure 5). LNG demand in the Americas and the Middle East contracted, as domestic production curbed the need for imports. Similar dynamics played out in both regions; Egypt resumed LNG exports and pipeline exports to Jordan, while Argentina began LNG exports and resumed pipeline exports to Chile.Growth in LNG supply came on the back of new production trains commissioned in the U.S. Gulf Coast (Table 2).Australian and Russian LNG production continued to grow by 11% and 57%, respectively. Qatar retained the top export spot in 2019 but its share in the global supply market is now tied with Australia at 21-22%.Figure 5: Regasification terminal utilizationTable 2: LNG supply projects commissioned in 2019 and year-to-date 2020PROJECT (COUNTRY)Cameron LNG (U.S.)Corpus ChristiLNG (U.S.)Elba Island(U.S.)Freeport LNG(U.S.)Prelude FLNG (Australia)Tango FLNG (Argentina)Vysotsk LNG (Russia)CAPACITY(BCM/year)18.512.32.720.54.90.70.9Pipeline tradePipeline trade fell 4.3%, or 25 billion cubic meters, in 2019 (Figure 6)9.Africa and Europe saw the largest reduction in pipeline exports. Tough competition with cheaper LNG in 2019 squeezed Algerian pipeline exports, leading to a 30% fall from a year earlier. A decline in gas production and planned maintenance work lowered Norwegian pipeline exports by 5.8% in the year. In North America, Canadian exports were down by 12.9% year on year (y/y). U.S. pipeline exports increased by 12% in the year on higher flows to Mexico. In the CIS countries, major exporters that saw lower pipeline exports include TurkmenistanFigure 6: Pipeline trade 2019Pipeline gas exports - 2019Asia Pacific-0.3Pipeline gas imports - 2019Middle EastBCMSource: Cedigaz.9 The Global Gas Market-2020 Edition, CedigazAsia PacificMiddle EastAfricaC.I.S.EuropeLatin AmericaNorth America+0.2+3.7-22.9-2.5-2.9-20-15-10-50BCMSource: Cedigaz.Table 3: New LNG import terminals, 2019 & 1Q 2020PROJECTCAPACITY(COUNTRY)(BCM/year)Bahrain LNG8.4Ennore (India)Fangchenggang (China)Gibraltar0.80.14Jeju Island (South Korea)Kaliningrad(Russia)Mundra (India)Old Harbour (Golar Freeze) (Jamaica)Sergie (Golar Nanook) (Brazil) Shenzhen Gas(China)Summit LNG (Bangladesh)Source: BloombergNEF. IGU Worid LNG Report 2020.(-10% y/y) and Uzbekistan (-23% y/y). Russian pipeline gas exports declined only marginally, slipping 0.5% despite competition from LNG. Azerbaijani exports were up by 42% on higher gas production. Pipeline exports in the Middle East grew by 10.6% in 2019 as Iran raised its supply. Latin America and Asia saw their pipeline exports decline by 16.3% and 1.1%, respectively.On the pipeline imports side, Europe saw the biggest decline among all regions as they fell 6.5% in 2019 from the previousRecent infrastructure buildoutRegasification terminalsSince the beginning of 2019, some 11 new LNG import terminals have been commissioned, bringing total regasification capacity to 844MMtpa, or 1,148Bcm per year (Table 3)10. New import terminals are a mix of onshore terminals, floating storage and regasification units (FSRU) and small- scale facilities, mostly supporting existing import markets.Roughly half of the new regasification capacity addition in 2019 happened in Asia, led by India. The Americas came second as Jamaica and Brazil added FSRU capacity to supply gas to power plants. A further 473MMtpa (643Bcm/ year) of regasification capacity is either under construction or proposed, with Asia accounting for 70% of the projects.Pipeline developmentsThere were a number of important gas pipeline developments in 2019, including the commissioning of new pipelines carrying Russian gas to China and Europe, and further takeaway capacity from the U.S. Permian Basin.Russia commissioned Power of Siberia, its largest pipeline project in the east, in December 2019. The pipeline runs about 3,000km from the Chayandinskoye field in Russia to the Chinese border, and is expected to be a major contributor to China5s pipeline gas import growth in the 2020s.year. U.K. pipeline imports dropped 35%, France and Belgium imported 26% less pipeline gas and Spain's imports were down by 15%. Pipeline imports also fell 5.2% in North America on lower flows to the U.S. from Canada, and in Latin America slipped 16.3% as Argentina and Brazil cut imports. Pipeline imports by the CIS countries were up by 10% as Ukraine imported more gas. Middle Eastern and African countries saw pipeline imports rise by 7.8% and 2.2% in 2019. Asia imported less pipeline gas on lower flows to China and Thailand.The bulk of new pipeline capacity from Russia to Europe comes from two projects, TurkStream and NordStream 2. TurkStream completed commissioning work in 2019 and started gas supply in January 2020. The pipeline, which runs roughly 930km offshore, connects Russia to Turkey and Europe. NordStream 2 crossed a major hurdle in October 2019 when Denmark approved construction through its national waters. The 1,200 km pipeline, with a capacity of 55 Bcm, will connect Russia to Europe, crossing the Baltic Sea. It is now due to be completed between 4Q 2020 and 1Q 2021. One other important pipeline development in Europe is the Trans Adriatic pipeline (TAP), which will supply Caspian natural gas to Europe and help to diversify Europe's supply options. Commissioning of TAP, which is 878 km long and will have 10 Bcm capacity, began in November 2019 with a target start within 2020.In the U.S., the Gulf Coast Express began operations, as did the Valley Crossing-Sur the Texas pipeline system. The Sur de Texas pipeline brings U.S. gas across the border to Mexico, in turn displacing LNG imports into the east of the country. The next wave of pipelines to alleviate the Permian basin bottleneck are not expected to enter the market until 2021: the Pecos Trail and Permian Highway projects have delayed their target start dates to 1Q 2021 and mid- 2021, respectively.10 LNG import and export project database 1Q2020, BloombergNEF.The impact of Covid-19The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic created an unprecedented shock to the global energy system, and gas consumption across the world was significantly impacted. Gas demand declined in the power sector due to lower electricity use, and in the industrial and commercial sector due to shutdowns of factories and businesses.Residential gas demand held firm as people stayed at home.These impacts varied by region. In Europe, gas demand declined by 7% y/y over the first five months of 2020 Gas 2020, IEA. In the first quarter, the fall was driven by a mild winter and higher renewable generation. However,Figure 7: Italy and Spain's power demand and industrial gas demand (average load)ItalySpainPower demand (GW)Power demand (GW)5035No impact forecast2020Jan.Jun.Jan.Jun.Jan.20192019202020202019Jun.2019Jan.2020Jun.2020Industrial gas demand (MCM/d)10Jan.2019Jun.201930Jun.Jan.Jun.201920202020Jan.Jun.Jan.202020202019Source: ENTSO-E, TERNA, SNAM, Enagas, BloombergNEF.Note: "No impact'* demand forecasts are based on historical data, temperatures, cyclical factors, and take into consideration weekends and national public holidays, but not the impact of Covid-19. The solid blue series represents a 70% confidence interval, the light blue is 95%.12iart on industrial demand in Spain shows daily pipeline flows that meet industrial and residential/commercial gas demand. In 2017 and 2018, industrial demand accounted for approximately 76% of these pipeline flows.lockdown measures started to impact gas demand from March, and May consumption was 11 % lower than March. Gas use in power plants was down by 11% in Italy and Spain in the last week of May, compared to business-as-usual (Figure 7).Industrial gas demand also declined by 11% in Italy and by 14% in Spain compared to expected demand.In the U.S., the impact was limited, despite lower economic activity. Consumption fell by 2.8% y/y over January-May 202012 13. The main effect was on industrial gas demand from March onward due to factory shutdowns. Gas demand in power, on the other hand, went up during this period, due to low gas prices resulting in more coal-togas switching. Residential gas demand was also higher.In China, the impact of the virus on gas consumption was largely contained to early 2020. Lockdown measures slowed down demand growth to 1.6% y/y in 1Q 2020 compared to 14% in 1Q 2019. Industries restarted gradually in 2Q 2020, which revived demand growth. April demand was 3.8% higher y/y. China's LNG imports are also recovering (Figure 8), and small LNG buyers are taking the opportunity to buy cheap spot LNG.In other Asian countries, Covid-19 started to impact gas demand from March onward. Japan's LNG demand fell by 5% y/y over the first five months in 2020 due to various factors, including a mild winter, a lower share of gas in the power sector and Covid-19 impacts. In contrast, South Korea's LNG demand rose by 13% y/y over January- May 2020 despite reduced economic activity - thanks to temporary shutdowns of coal plants to control pollution. In India, gas demand increased by 10% in 1Q 2020, as the country raised LNG imports to take advantage of low spot prices. However, demand was down by 25% y/y in April 2020, mostly in the industrial and transport sectors. Gas consumption recovered in May once businesses reopened after lockdown measures were eased - particularly in the fertilizer sector, which consumes much of the country's imported gas.Global gas demand could decline by 4% y/y in 202014. This would be the largest- ever recorded decline in gas demand since the development of the gas industry in the second half of the 20th century. To compare, gas demand fell by 2% in 2009 due to the global financial crisis. Around 75% of the demand loss is likely to happen in the developed gas markets across Europe, North America, CIS and Asia due to lower power demand, a fall in industrial activity and lower space heating needs in the commercial sector. Gas demand in power is likely to see the largest drop, with consumption falling by 5% y/y in 2020.The pandemic's impact on the supply side has been more muted, and preliminary estimates suggest gas production was relatively resilient. In the U.S., gas15 Jan 12 Feb 11 Mar 08 Apr 11 May 10JunSource: Bloomberg TerminaPs AHOY JOURNEY <GO>, BloombergNEF.production was actually 5.3% higher in January-May 2020 compared to last year15. In China, government estimates show that domestic production went up by 10.4% y/y in 1Q 2020, growing even faster than the same period last year. Russian gas production, however, declined 9% y/y in the first five months of 2020, due to lower pipeline exports to Europe.Global LNG exports increased by 5.2% y/y in January-June 2020 due to a surge in supplies from the U.S. (Figure 9)16. LNG exports from the U.S. were up by 58% y/y in 1H 2020 as production from new projects was ramped up. Supplies from Russian LNG projects were higher by 5.7% and Australian projects exported 5.3% more LNG over January-June 2020.Figure 9: Global monthly LNG imports in 2020 versus 2019Cost-competitivenessGas continues to demonstrate its cost-competitiveness in the global energy landscape, and events of the last 12 months have served to make gas even more affordable.Spot market development and historic low pricesCommodity price benchmarks have taken a big hit this year in the fallout of Covid-19 (Figure 10). But even before this, gas prices had started to drop on an LNG supply surge and lower demand. Asia's spot LNG benchmark price, the Japan-Korea marker (JKM), fell to a record low - from an average $5.6/MMBtu in 2019 to $2.1/MMBtu in May 2020. Contracted LNG, most of which is linked to oil prices such as Brent (shown by 13% slope/multiplierto Brent in Figure 10), averaged around $8.3/MMBtu in 2019 and fell to $4.2/MMBtu in May 2020, as oil prices collapsed due to unprecedented demand loss brought on by the pandemic.By late April 2020, global gas markets had entered uncharted territory, with the U.S. Henry Hub gas price benchmark surpassing Europe's Title Transfer Facility (TTF) index-Henry Hub averaged $1.8/MMBtu in May 2020 and TTF trading at an average of $1.7/ MMBtu over the same period.On the upside, the new low gas prices have bolstered the competitive position of gas, and unlocked purchasing potential by more price-sensitive LNG buyers, such as those in India. Again, this has been happening since before the pandemic. Global spot volume, defined as cargoes delivered within 90 days of transaction date, rose to 27% of total LNG trade in 2019 compared to 25% in 2018, Total spot and short-term volume, defined as cargoes delivered under a four- year contract or less, reached 34% last year, compared to 32% in 2018 (Figure 11).Figure 10: Futures prices$/MMBtu1210862Source: ICE, CME - via Bloomberg Terminal.JKMMay 2018Jan 2018Jan 2019May 2019Sep 2018-TTFMay201920202020Figure 11: Futures prices17 Annual Report 2020, GIIGNL.Source: GIIGNL.Figure 12: Spot LNG activity in 2019Middle EastU.S.Atlantic basinAustraliaPacific basin2%region regionMiddle East & Africa AmericasEuropeOther AsiaNorth AsiaFigure 13: EU carbon allowance priceMuch of the spot supply came from the U.S., a function of the free-destinatio