关注9月央行资产负债表的两个要点.docx

2020年10月16日，中国人民银行公布9月金融机构资产负债表：从资产负债表规 模来看，9月央行资产负债表规模扩张了约9675亿元，延续上个月的扩张；从资产负债表 结构来看，资产端“对存款类公司债权”项依旧占据最大权重，但负债端结构变动较大，非 银机构准备金以及财政存款项也都有很大变动。那么什么因素驱动了央行资产负债变化？对 后续银行间流动性有何指引？本篇将对此加以解析。I关注央行资产负债表结构变动财政+货币”双投放，商业银行准备金总量上升。当前我国法定准备金率环比持平， 每个月新增存款缴准的影响也仅在10002000亿元左右，因此商业银行准备金池子总规模 的放缩基本可以直观地解释银行间资金面的波动。从商业银行准备金总量来看，9月银行 准备金总量继续扩张，单月大幅度增加了约1.3万亿元（与此对应，9月DR001中枢环比 直接下降了大约30Bp,从实际感受来看银行间资金基本呈现跨季无虞的情况）。从影响银行准备金总量的几个因素看：近期央行资产负债表中“国外资产”项变动 并不明显，虽然当前我国出口情势表现良好，但是由于近期人民币持续升值的影响，商业 银行更多的选择不向央行结汇，使得央行资产端国外资产并没有增加（反而减少大约150 亿元）；根据央行信贷收支表估计的9月初银行超储率仅有大约1.1%左右水平，随着 跨季考核时点的逐渐到来，央行也增加了主动投放的力度，”对其他存款性公司债权”项 大幅增加了大约9850亿元；季末往往是财政支出较为集中的时点，9月财政存款环比 减少了约8000亿（考虑到8月财政库款反季节性的增加了约5000亿元，9月财政加力投 放可能更多呈现“补偿性”特征）。国库库款以及货币政策工具共计投放了约1.7万亿元 的准备金，上一次“财政+货币”双投放还需要追溯至今年3月。图1：准备金变动拆解（亿元）150001000050000-5000-10000 2020-09 2020-08 2019-091314银行准备金央行投放国库库款其他准备金其他项资料来源:Wind, &&现金与支付机构备付金的增加能否持续：预计影响逐渐消弭。从外表看，9月流动性 格局由央行投放以及财政行为主导，但是央行负债结构变动仍然隐藏着很多细节：9月央 行负债端“非金融机构存款”以及“货币发行”两项都增加明显。“非金融机构存款”主 要指各类支付机构缴存在央行的客户备付金存款，而“货币发行”那么是商业银行库存现金 以及居民手中持有M0二者之和。名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）113516.SH苏农转债107.99-0.060.89123002.SZ国祯转债121.00-2.895.93123004.SZ铁汉转债107.61-1.632.24123007.SZ道氏转债117.330.37195.84123010.SZ博世转债111.00-1.601.87123011.SZ德尔转债109.63-3.0713.87123012.SZ万顺转债156.60-4.5136.62123013.SZ横河转债393.01-4.5694.81123014.SZ凯发转债163.80-1.46333.77123015.SZ蓝盾转债404.308.391083.75127003.SZ海印转债107.31-0.570.56127004.SZ模塑转债198.000.00105.57127005.SZ长证转债125.60-1.062.75127006.SZ敖东转债107.10-0.770.20127007.SZ湖广转债109.00-1.270.48128010.SZ顺昌转债106.35-0.540.81128012.SZ辉丰转债100.570.000.00128013.SZ洪涛转债107.11-0.861.60128014.SZ永东转债103.84-1.250.83128015.SZ久其转债101.05-0.310.94128017.SZ金禾转债137.00-4.874.35128018.SZ时达转债104.35-0.310.47128019.SZ久立转2133.70-2.118.24128021.SZ兄弟转债121.55-4.068.15128022.SZ众信转债112.370.081.17128023.SZ亚太转债96.670.020.65128025.SZ特一转债108.02-3.848.39128026.SZ众兴转债104.01-1.320.85128028.SZ赣锋转债151.50-0.858.17128029.SZ太阳转债160.450.2255.32128030.SZ天康转债200.00-5.6619.54128032.SZ双环转债103.59-1.340.24128033.SZ迪龙转债101.70-0.490.54128034.SZ江银转债110.29-0.640.29128035.SZ大族转债110.48-0.562.58128036.SZ金农转债150.49-5.2426.95128037.SZ岩土转债98.23-0.120.29128039.SZ三力转债133.24-4.1374.93128040.SZ华通转债121.00-4.7215.98名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）128041.SZ盛路转债269.003.46172.77128042.SZ凯中转债110.21-3.7518.19128044.SZ岭南转债100.80-0.630.42128046.SZ利尔转债124.85-1.301.10113520.SH百合转债232.801.54110.37128048.SZ张行转债120.20-0.921.66113519.SH长久转债113.00-3.572.12113521 .SH科森转债202.06-3.9010.19110047.SH山鹰转债111.40-0.880.08113020.SH桐昆转债128.68-1.819.00128049.SZ华源转债115.50-2.680.73123017.SZ寒锐转债129.30-5.7416.62127008.SZ特发转债283.000.38181.08128050.SZ钧达转债121.00-4.7241.12110048.SH福能转债113.62-0.551.20113524.SH奇精转债110.08-3.194.40128051.SZ光华转债119.25-3.0545.59113525.SH台华转债112.87-1.520.49128052.SZ凯龙转债303.002.7895.78123018.SZ溢利转债241.80-6.0347.56113526.SH联泰转债152.18-5.663.46113527.SH维格转债91.23-1.610.86128053.SZ尚荣转债182.00-3.1956.21113021 .SH中信转债106.20-0.355.85113528.SH长城转债106.980.112.19128056.SZ今飞转债121.50-2.8913.58110051.SH中天转债123.74-1.091.41110052.SH贵广转债108.10-0.500.26128057.SZ博彦转债121.30-1.502.71110053.SH苏银转债111.50-1.193.45127011.SZ中鼎转2122.34-0.541.74110055.SH伊力转债121.50-3.083.78128058.SZ拓邦转债156.00-3.297.56123022.SZ长信转债164.30-5.1510.15110056.SH亨通转债112.60-0.350.66123023.SZ迪森转债109.00-6.2824.39123024.SZ岱勒转债123.70-8.4240.81113530.SH大丰转债103.84-0.510.30123025.SZ精测转债122.00-1.1725.78名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）113532.SH海环转债106.80-1.040.20128063.SZ未来转债107.50-2.455.33128062.SZ亚药转债77.95-1.386.80113024.SH核建转债104.31-0.190.38127012.SZ招路转债103.98-0.260.63110057.SH现代转债114.72-0.920.59113534.SH鼎胜转债107.39-1.101.20113025.SH明泰转债119.41-1.493.00128064.SZ司尔转债108.81-2.371.14113026.SH核能转债102.02-0.263.94110058.SH永鼎转债124.82-0.940.55128065.SZ雅化转债143.25-1.6531.23128066.SZ亚泰转债115.60-0.791.06127013.SZ创维转债107.46-1.140.30113535.SH大业转债102.06-0.840.26113536.SH三星转债123.70-2.815.83123026.SZ中环转债125.90-5.6612.53123027.SZ蓝晓转债193.00-1.17184.47113537.SH文灿转债131.94-0.5726.08113027.SH华锌转债113.74-0.602.04128069.SZ华森转债112.80-3.3120.00123028.SZ清水转债116.33-3.322.91128070.SZ智能转债149.00-8.8769.58113541 .SH荣晟转债122.59-1.190.71113542.SH好客转债115.76-1.670.30113543.SH欧派转债171.50-2.753.11123029.SZ英科转债1109.99-1.5159.14128073.SZ哈尔转债136.66-2.39214.22123030.SZ九洲转债193.40-6.1286.94128071 .SZ合兴转债120.50-2.492.79128072.SZ翔鹭转债104.20-1.232.21123031 .SZ晶瑞转债288.516.42524.21128074.SZ游族转债115.90-0.092.89123032.SZ万里转债285.00-4.04195.14128075.SZ远东转债135.70-3.007.07113545.SH金能转债121.980.302.72128076.SZ金轮转债111.30-4.7919.22128078.SZ太极转债129.800.623.55110059.SH浦发转债102.26-0.2622.61名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）113546.SH迪贝转债106.60-3.772.58127014.SZ北方转债107.60-1.420.49128079.SZ英联转债144.30-8.0938.75113548.SH石英转债131.26-3.298.47123033.SZ金力转债117.51-1.0754.06110060.SH天路转债119.09-1.390.98123034.SZ通光转债244.55-0.55185.64110061 .SH川投转债122.541.263.18123035.SZ利德转债122.40-1.022.41113549.SH白电转债109.22-0.850.33113550.SH常汽转债162.29-3.6617.96128081.SZ海亮转债105.15-1.360.29110062.SH烽火转债118.50-0.190.21128083.SZ新北转债109.70-0.680.59110063.SH鹰19转债111.58-0.700.27128082.SZ华锋转债111.53-2.163.30113029.SH明阳转债136.31-1.9518.74113553.SH金牌转债135.60-1.993.60128085.SZ鸿达转债107.99-0.951.46113556.SH至纯转债131.240.7249.91123036.SZ先导转债151.000.93129.25113557.SH森特转债110.21-1.140.33113559.SH永创转债116.55-1.920.36110065.SH淮矿转债120.00-1.760.78113555.SH振德转债524.74-2.7522.22110064.SH建工转债104.11-0.620.33128087.SZ孚日转债101.21-1.160.56128091.SZ新天转债159.00-2.6073.82113030.SH东风转债113.65-0.980.47128093.SZ百川转债109.50-0.460.50123038.SZ联得转债144.10-6.5141.90123039.SZ开润转债116.50-3.4011.84128090.SZ汽模转2115.80-1.462.00127015.SZ希望转债136.61-3.383.51113562.SH璞泰转债133.283.2534.29113561 .SH正裕转债120.60-4.001.54123042.SZ银河转债185.70-4.77195.61128094.SZ星帅转债122.99-6.6557.51113563.SH柳药转债119.01-0.410.56名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）128095.SZ恩捷转债152.991.3220.40113565.SH宏辉转债114.86-2.411.75113564.SH天目转债123.16-0.633.82128096.SZ奥瑞转债129.03-3.204.73128097.SZ奥佳转债141.861.2617.19113032.SH桐20转债123.10-2.290.63128098.SZ康弘转债120.00-3.134.08123043.SZ正元转债207.00-9.21247.67113566.SH翔港转债112.78-3.875.19110066.SH盛屯转债128.50-1.040.81113571 .SH博特转债132.61-4.951.63113568.SH新春转债108.61-3.351.04113567.SH君禾转债114.86-2.200.92113569.SH科达转债103.00-0.610.53113570.SH百达转债108.30-2.870.46128100.SZ搜特转债103.05-1.460.43110067.SH华安转债120.82-0.972.71113572.SH三样转债116.44-2.931.59128099.SZ永高转债118.40-0.925.56123044.SZ红相转债140.30-1.9716.56123045.SZ雷辿转债159.326.82569.15128101.SZ联创转债111.02-1.077.64110068.SH龙净转债111.40-0.940.44128102.SZ海大转债177.80-1.1118.10123046.SZ天铁转债154.09-4.5418.88123047.SZ久吾转债149.00-7.4570.36128103.SZ同德转债161.20-4.1033.17113033.SH利群转债109.01-0.950.71113574.SH华体转债105.25-2.093.86128104.SZ裕同转债134.24-3.083.11113575.SH东时转债135.430.212.22113034.SH滨化转债118.38-1.357.17113576.SH起步转债146.561.0882.62110069.SH瀚蓝转债135.761.150.37128106.SZ华统转债121.12-1.690.34123048.SZ应急转债137.80-3.64237.00123049.SZ维尔转债122.90-1.600.89128105.SZ长集转债118.00-2.562.49127016.SZ鲁泰转债107.01-1.340.15名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）113577.SH春秋转债126.81-5.392.40110070.SH凌钢转债100.70-0.560.15123050.SZ聚飞转债124.60-1.022.43113578.SH全筑转债114.26-2.310.69113581 .SH龙蟠转债226.61-2.4719.76113580.SH康隆转债166.251.3316.90113573.SH纵横转债102.06-1.938.61113579.SH健友转债120.00-0.171.90128107.SZ交科转债114.50-0.990.52113035.SH福莱转债249.82-3.93368.20128108.SZ蓝帆转债130.20-4.5556.94113583.SH益丰转债144.270.569.01128109.SZ楚江转债124.54-1.481.48113582.SH火炬转债182.27-1.9015.64113584.SH家悦转债114.54-1.530.43123051 .SZ今天转债136.80-5.2327.34123053.SZ宝通转债121.84-3.694.25127017.SZ万青转债125.18-1.430.57123052.SZ飞鹿转债160.00-8.72186.85123054.SZ思特转债118.56-7.7321.93128111.SZ中矿转债123.97-1.860.81113585.SH寿仙转债145.240.0420.90113586.SH上机转债232.80-0.937.27128110.SZ永兴转债124.98-2.360.94123055.SZ晨光转债132.50-2.072.51128112.SZ歌尔转2190.55-3.1847.18113588.SH润达转债122.62-0.991.36113587.SH泛微转债143.911.0511.65128114.SZ正邦转债121.10-1.706.24128113.SZ比音转债127.00-0.780.94128115.SZ巨星转债201.50-3.2616.93113589.SH天创转债98.90-0.320.62128117.SZ道恩转债116.20-3.9737.72113591 .SH胜达转债103.960.061.00123056.SZ雪榕转债129.30-2.681.22128116.SZ瑞达转债109.00-1.180.86123057.SZ美联转债135.45-5.94217.38113590.SH海容转债139.280.23121.68110071 .SH湖盐转债109.20-0.810.59名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）113592.SH安20转债149.61-0.954.55127018.SZ本钢转债90.60-1.8115.96128118.SZ瀛通转债110.00-2.914.51113036.SH宁建转债107.85-1.000.19128119.SZ龙大转债125.67-2.003.92128121.SZ宏川转债120.30-0.7425.69123058.SZ欣旺转债150.41-1.241.37127019.SZ国城转债91.70-1.292.67113593.SH沪工转债112.23-2.4212.21123059.SZ银信转债124.85-3.2263.01127020.SZ中金转债109.05-0.950.92123060.SZ苏试转债127.35-1.818.42123062.SZ三超转债147.20-6.7252.04128120.SZ联诚转债111.20-3.2710.87128122.SZ兴森转债111.10-3.409.98113037.SH紫银转债107.17-0.641.73123061 .SZ航新转债161.89-1.94225.76113595.SH花王转债111.33-0.940.83128123.SZ国光转债118.00-0.170.92123063.SZ大禹转债120.79-3.9512.56128124.SZ科华转债111.59-1.081.90110073.SH国投转债118.13-1.061.90113596.SH城地转债108.31-1.000.14128125.SZ华阳转债122.80-0.9311.05113597.SH佳力转债107.72-1.661.08113598.SH法兰转债125.51-2.800.73113594.SH淳中转债112.18-4.3353.87127021 .SZ特发转2111.00-1.152.27113599.SH嘉友转债114.02-0.912.66113038.SH隆20转债158.751.3120.72128126.SZ赣锋转2129.15-0.322.18128127.SZ文科转债107.50-2.862.53113600.SH新星转债105.23-1.370.35110072.SH广汇转债106.92-1.3315.00113601.SH塞力转债107.06-0.701.04128128.SZ齐翔转2107.740.406.62113039.SH嘉泽转债105.00-0.810.39128129.SZ青农转债109.08-0.882.62128130.SZ景兴转债110.10-1.170.64名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）110074.SH精达转债108.38-1.860.64113602.SH景20转债120.10-0.200.88123064.SZ万孚转债117.93-1.432.32123065.SZ宝莱转债169.002.37252.09128131.SZ崇达转2114.92-0.160.91123066.SZ赛意转债125.56-1.6847.68123067.SZ斯莱转债116.78-4.2815.60128132.SZ交建转债99.65-0.312.22128133.SZ奇正转债112.55-3.6871.90113603.SH东缆转债120.092.45131.71资料来源：Wind,正股&&表6：可转债名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（亿）600271 .SH航天信息15.520.261.08600755.SH厦门国贸6.69-2.621.19600998.SH九州通18.160.172.43600566.SH济川药业22.10-1.250.68600863.SH内蒙华电2.57-0.770.24600908.SH无锡银行5.55-2.461.13600831 .SH广电网络6.90-3.360.58600398.SH海澜之家6.73-4.540.75601727.SH上海电气4.94-2.561.67601238.SH广汽集团13.432.9114.05601818.SH光大银行3.920.516.09601311.SH骆驼股份8.27-2.711.99601211.SH国泰君安18.40-1.928.09601222.SH林洋能源7.86-2.482.75601127.SH小康股份8.76-2.450.62601929.SH吉视传媒2.05-3.300.31603822.SH嘉澳环保23.17-3.780.27603989.SH艾华集团25.22-2.471.22603618.SH杭电股份5.52-2.990.27603225.SH新凤鸣10.17-0.970.21603179.SH新泉股份29.82-6.141.05603323.SH苏农银行4.690.211.93300388.SZ国祯环保9.10-4.210.68300197.SZ铁汉生态3.57-5.312.15300409.SZ道氏技术14.793.508.15300422.SZ博世科11.300.891.27名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（亿）300473.SZ德尔股份27.80-1.700.58300057.SZ万顺新材6.39-8.712.60300539.SZ横河模具11.22-4.272.17300407.SZ凯发电气10.421.172.79300297.SZ蓝盾股份8.129.4322.86000861 .SZ海印股份2.32-4.130.70000700.SZ模塑科技5.80-4.610.99000783.SZ长江证券7.53-4.562.07000623.SZ吉林敖东16.81-1.351.41000665.SZ湖北广电5.21-2.430.82002245.SZ澳洋顺昌6.57-2.091.49002496.SZ*ST辉丰3.52-4.860.64002325.SZ洪涛股份2.90-3.010.38002753.SZ永东股份7.88-3.080.11002279.SZ久其软件5.40-4.260.54002597.SZ金禾实业28.45-5.642.19002527.SZ新时达5.65-2.250.32002318.SZ久立特材10.21-2.303.63002562.SZ兄弟科技5.80-3.330.67002707.SZ众信旅游5.90-3.591.27002284.SZ亚太股份5.32-1.120.59002728.SZ特一药业12.950.470.19002772.SZ众兴菌业8.96-2.610.47002460.SZ赣锋锂业60.82-4.2218.79002078.SZ太阳纸业13.910.074.83002100.SZ天康生物13.75-3.032.10002472.SZ双环传动6.12-1.920.39002658.SZ雪迪龙5.90-1.670.07002807.SZ江阴银行4.02-1.950.49002008.SZ大族激光40.20-2.3315.01002548.SZ金新农8.14-5.020.95002542.SZ中化岩土3.34-1.180.18002224.SZ三力士6.31-3.661.27002758.SZ华通医药11.59-0.690.23002446.SZ盛路通信7.340.001.23002823.SZ凯中精密11.56-4.070.53002717.SZ岭南股份3.94-0.250.54002258.SZ利尔化学19.90-5.332.77603313.SH梦百合32.602.422.60名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（亿）002839.SZ张家港行5.80-2.681.12603569.SH长久物流9.98>10.011.67603626.SH科森科技16.00-6.321.96600567.SH山鹰纸业3.06-1.611.08601233.SH桐昆股份15.13-3.632.69002787.SZ华源控股6.97-7.190.73300618.SZ寒锐钻业63.61-10.318.92000070.SZ特发信息9.90-2.851.65002865.SZ钧达股份15.48-2.