LPR不变之后的影 响.docx

中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2021年7月20 口贷款市场报价利 率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.85%, 5年期以上LPR为4.65%°虽然本次LPR报价并 未调整，但贷款利率走低的趋势会因此受到干扰吗？贷款利率的变动又将对信贷投放量有 何影响？下半年社融能否筑底回升，宽信用格局又能否形成？货币政策是否还有进一步宽 松的必要性？我们该如何看待短期和长期的债市走向？本文将逐一进行分析。I LPR未降不影响实际贷款利率下行降准之后金融机构贷款利率相较于LPR的加点程度都会出现一定的下滑,代表了实 际贷款利率有所降低。我们统计/自LPR改革后，每月金融机构贷款利率相较于LPR加 点或减点的占比情况，一般来说贷款利率在LPR基础之上会有所上调，LPR加点的占比 基本在70%以上。但是一旦降准之后，无论LPR报价有无变化，贷款利率加点的占比都 会有所下降，对应的，贷款报价等于LPR或在LPR基础上减点的占比则有所上升。2019 年9月、2020年1月和2020年4月的三次降准，LPR加点的占比分别下降了 1.09、3.98 和2.06个百分点。图1：金融机敬遨利率相较于LPR的加减点数情况（） LPR加点:占比， LPR减点:占比（右轴） 等TLPR:占比（右轴） LPR加点:占比， LPR减点:占比（右轴） 等TLPR:占比（右轴）35.0090.0030.0025.0020.0015.0010.005.000.0080.0070.0060.0050.0040.0030.0020.0010.000.002019-09 全面降准2020 01 全面降近2Q2O-O1 定向降准资料来源：Wind.从加点部分的贷款内部来看,加点的幅度整体也会也有所降低。把贷款利率按照相较 于LPR加点的幅度进行划分，从下表可知，2019年后的两次全面降准，加点布1.5个百 分点以上的贷款占比整体减少。而2020年4月的降准效果相对较弱，加点在3%以上的 占比增加，但加点不足0.5%和1.5-3%区间的占比下降。此次效果不及前两轮降准，主要 系2020年4月降准为中小机构定向降准所致。表1：金融机构贷款利率相较于LPR的加点情况资料来源：Wind,准备金率变化贷款利率较LPR加点占比情况变化加点不足0.5%加点0.5%到1.5%加点1.5%到3%力口点3%至IJ 5%加点超过5%2019-09全面降准0.5%增加0.85%减少0.29%减少0.44%减少0.31%减少0.90%2020-01全面降准0.5%减少0.14%增加I 0.09%减少2.73%减少0.80%减少0.40%2020-04中小机构定向降准0.5%减少2.55%增加0.65%减少1.92%增加0.93%增加0.84%名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百万）113047.SHN旗滨转192.400.93105.27128091.SZ新天转债125.200.90557.27128135.SZ洽洽转债114.760.899.49123049.SZ维尔转债109.920.873.10118000.SH嘉元转债138.570.8757.21128145.SZ日丰转债115.200.8512.74113611.SH福20转债180.540.84249.42128082.SZ华锋转债139.700.79905.65128070.SZ智能转债113.430.79146.08113618.SH美诺转债125.000.7832.10123073.SZ同和转债116.800.734.35110074.SH精达转债234.580.73491.17128051.SZ光华转债152.500.73169.00123087.SZ明电转债109.790.7213.65123065.SZ宝莱转债111.290.7163.92123042.SZ银河转债145.600.69648.26123084.SZ高澜转债115.290.6833.57123115.SZ捷捷转债139.800.6648.53128136.SZ立讯转债119.780.6629.10128143.SZ锋龙转债112.600.6215.04113026.SH核能转债106.860.6251.40123011.SZ德尔转债112.060.5920.37128130.SZ景兴转债115.790.5913.81128057.SZ博彦转债127.970.5943.40128079.SZ英联转债134.200.5844.08123076.SZ强力转债101.750.575.26123056.SZ雪榕转债107.910.57209.78128025.SZ特一转债116.800.56109.71113619.SH世运转债103.460.551.75113566.SH翔港转债110.090.532.01123093.SZ金陵转债122.600.5242.70127025.SZ其东转债108.110.524.11123085.SZ万顺转2117.140.5024.15128023.SZ亚太转债106.380.508.70113040.SH星宇转债136.380.49123.69110064.SH建工转债100.000.4916.16123070.SZ鹏辉转债135.500.48220.90113563.SH柳药转债110.900.4826.94128039.SZ三力转债106.580.4514.53123052.SZ飞鹿转债127.900.4338.23123045.SZ雷迪转债116.600.4318.36113012.SH骆驼转债134.680.4126.19127032.SZ苏行转债113.500.408.82113572.SH三祥转债121.340.404.15名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百万）113536.SH三星转债115.450.393.56123108.SZ乐普转2127.700.3811.86123053.SZ宝通转债107.900.3711.38128119.SZ龙大转债118.060.3312.45113567.SH君禾转债110.050.321.68128142.SZ新乳转债119.580.321.02123099.SZ普利转债124.190.304.33123078.SZ飞凯转债126.900.2944.84113573.SH纵横转债107.270.294.17123028.SZ清水转债102.300.281.67128124.SZ科华转债100.810.2811.43113042.SH上银转债102.910.25386.00123051.SZ今天转债114.160.234.07128078.SZ太极转债123.970.2215.70113039.SH嘉泽转债116.620.2140.26128141.SZ旺能转债115.000.2015.30128034.SZ江银转债106.550.195.25127024.SZ盈峰转债110.500.1810.96128105.SZ长集转债107.490.184.64110060.SH天路转债113.430.189.82128035.SZ大族转债110.860.173.19128121.SZ宏川转债113.500.1716.03123068.SZ弘信转债126.200.1683.73113036.SH宁建转债101.380.162.95113044.SH大秦转债103.080.1681.59128137.SZ洁美转债131.400.1513.93113588.SH润达转债109.030.1510.04113021.SH中信转债106.460.1415.62128074.SZ游族转债115.860.1437.01113516.SH苏农转债111.480.1213.36110059.SH浦发转债103.520.12119.65113037.SH紫银转债103.690.1289.77113602.SH景20转债123.720.117.99128134.SZ鸿路转债129.890.1177.09128013.SZ洪涛转债106.910.1115.48128073.SZ哈尔转债110.380.107.10128116.SZ瑞达转债101.400.106.71128063.SZ未来转债108.090.109.21123077.SZ汉得转债105.000.0915.10127018.SZ本钢转债104.090.09239.33113045.SH环旭转债112.800.084.05123110.SZ九典转债128.600.08591.47113598.SH法兰转债108.000.074.90128069.SZ华森转债106.230.0714.04名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百万）113013.SH国君转债113.970.0632.28128049.SZ华源转债102.700.060.79123047.SZ久吾转债233.130.061,794.42110034.SH九州转债109.100.067.58113589.SH天创转债94.520.043.05128044.SZ岭南转债96.130.035.28128037.SZ岩土转债107.560.024.05113049.SH长汽转债150.890.02106.24123090.SZ三诺转债121.000.012.64128118.SZ源通转债104.160.011.14113561.SH正裕转债110.900.015.04110057.SH现代转债112.830.019.76110053.SH苏银转债123.500.01151.24128076.SZ金轮转债107.610.004.41127028.SZ英特转债108.340.007.75128030.SZ天康转债204.190.008.33123059.SZ银信转债109.000.006.28113535.SH大业转债103.900.003.58127003.SZ海印转债105.620.005.91128093.SZ百川转债174.000.00796.79127006.SZ敖东转债102.450.002.85113030.SH东风转债112.00-0.013.68113024.SH核建转债102.24-0.0111.63113620.SH做农转债100.97-0.013.25113579.SH健友转债120.15-0.023.73128129.SZ青农转债106.80-0.0225.63128015.SZ久其转债101.25-0.024.24113542.SH好客转债109.94-0.034.91113017.SH吉视转债98.82-0.035.98113614.SH健20转债122.07-0.039.69113577.SH春秋转债119.11-0.032.11113624.SH正川转债102.89-0.0417.21127005.SZ长证转债116.75-0.0465.96128117.SZ道恩转债101.46-0.052.31113574.SH华体转债109.00-0.061.99110080.SH东湖转债105.73-0.0719.40123072.SZ乐歌转债130.91-0.0767.29123004.SZ铁汉转债102.45-0.071.89110067.SH华安转债107.62-0.0720.16113575.SH东时转债132.28-0.0814.71113505.SH杭甩转债105.62-0.0814.02128114.SZ正邦转债103.82-0.0810.02128100.SZ搜特转债76.15-0.0813.37128138.SZ侨银转债104.39-0.082.03名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百方）128132.SZ交建转债96.02-0.0929.32113576.SH起步转债91.64-0.097.56128021.SZ兄弟转债104.93-0.094.17113600.SH新星转债104.57-0.1014.54128131.SZ崇达转2103.90-0.100.57127007.SZ湖广转债101.00-0.1011.33128127.SZ文科转债97.93-0.1110.58110038.SH济川转债106.08-0.112.41113625.SH江山转债115.32-0.126.69123082.SZ北陆转债112.26-0.134.66128056.SZ今飞转债110.80-0.131.99127026.SZ超声转债108.30-0.146.22113530.SH大丰转债104.15-0.144.20128107.SZ交科转债108.60-0.156.05113605.SH大参转债113.29-0.1741.96127037.SZ银轮转债133.81-0.17128.53127019.SZ国城转债92.09-0.175.00113606.SH荣泰转债118.88-0.1817.22110041.SH蒙电转债106.32-0.185.08113584.SH家悦转债98.71-0.181.89128062.SZ亚药转债79.87-0.195.30110052.SH贵广转债101.23-0.1913.43113033.SH利群转债100.84-0.198.56128139.SZ祥鑫转债100.63-0.204.02113541.SH荣晟转债121.78-0.203.94123002.SZ国祯转债109.00-0.210.37113050.SH南银转债119.40-0.21137.89113597.SH佳力转债112.68-0.2131.66127013.SZ创维转债106.37-0.2225.54113609.SH永安转债116.12-0.2260.59123088.SZ威唐转债107.63-0.238.03128083.SZ新北转债105.00-0.2410.58110058.SH7k鼎转债107.70-0.247.42113616.SH韦尔转债151.42-0.24353.60113604.SH多伦转债106.40-0.248.26113595.SH花王转债85.83-0.244.38123111.SZ东财转3150.58-0.25361.64113011.SH光大转债114.50-0.2647.99123081.SZ精研转债106.000.2614.22110056.SH亨通转债107.06-0.276.78127012.SZ招路转债107.70-0.2817.76127017.SZ万育转债112.78-0.280.37128048.SZ张行转债112.48-0.2910.43113569.SH科达转债98.69-0.292.33名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百方）128096.SZ奥瑞转债128.45-0.296.04127016.SZ鲁泰转债101.00-0.300.33127014.SZ北方转债110.20-0.306.44113043.SH财通转债107.15-0.3116.69127027.SZ靖远转债102.76-0.3135.59123101.SZ拓斯转债109.00-0.328.89123014.SZ凯发转债135.59-0.3254.53128040.SZ华通转债109.52-0.347.24123024.SZ岱勒转债109.61-0.343.62113596.SH城地转债91.86-0.354.20113591.SH胜达转债104.75-0.355.84127020.SZ中金转债113.50-0.3511.24123063.SZ大禹转债117.24-0.3528.13113526.SH联泰转债260.80-0.3616.75128120.SZ联诚转债106.10-0.372.82128125.SZ华阳转债103.10-0.3911.58123096.SZ思创转债112.56-0.3914.02128066.SZ亚泰转债102.91-0.394.84113622.SH杭叉转债112.89-0.403.21123097.SZ美力转债117.53-0.4013.95113578.SH全筑转债103.06-0.414.93113519.SH长久转债103.44-0.411.25128087.SZ孚口转债103.16-0.427.30123071 .SZ天能转债118.80-0.4221.09128022.SZ众信转债104.20-0.435.13113603.SH东缆转债117.52-0.4311.24123089.SZ九洲转2137.94-0.44162.88113532.SH海环转债101.75-0.441.01128090.SZ汽模转2111.00-0.458.20127011.SZ中鼎转2133.00-0.45110.15127021.SZ特发转2105.52-0.464.47113524.SH奇精转债108.61-0.4610.15110079.SH杭银转债114.09-0.4675.02128123.SZ国光转债103.02-0.460.83113565.SH宏辉转债106.39-0.4711.06123112.SZ万讯转债115.43-0.476.86128042.SZ凯中转债111.96-0.486.39123106.SZ正丹转债119.41-0.4828.77123075.SZ贝斯转债113.400.494.59113546.SH迪贝转债107.91-0.491.32123116.SZ万兴转债124.80-0.4915.86113534.SH鼎胜转债190.15-0.50634.17123064.SZ万孚转债116.04-0.5229.07127033.SZ中装转2105.60-0.5218.23名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百万）123039.SZ开润转债105.85-0.533.79127036.SZ三花转债132.90-0.5337.45113601.SH塞力转债100.88-0.5513.98110068.SH龙净转债104.37-0.5812.41123117.SZ健帆转债124.82-0.6219.87110051.SH中天转债117.21-0.6416.01128071 .SZ合兴转债106.20-0.653.43123102.SZ华自转债185.44-0.651,287.48123012.SZ万顺转债133.98-0.6553.17110073.SH国投转债107.37-0.67102.38123025.SZ精测转债136.81-0.69122.26123113.SZN仙乐转125.91-0.7137.10123030.SZ九洲转债226.95-0.72883.05123066.SZ赛意转债147.40-0.7438.87123054.SZ思特转债152.80-0.78709.92123083.SZ朗新转债126.00-0.808.10123060.SZ苏试转债137.88-0.8140.90110062.SH烽火转债112.50-0.8124.97128046.SZ利尔转债146.70-0.81159.36128109.SZ楚江转债122.00-0.8113.17128133.SZ奇正转债115.06-0.8135.49110063.SH鹰19转债120.00-0.826.90123038.SZ联得转债118.62-0.829.76128081.SZ海亮转债114.13-0.8428.63123107. SZ温氏转债106.00-0.8425.24113593.SH沪工转债107.59-0.863.09123109.SZ昌红转债114.20-0.8620.47113610.SH灵康转债117.79-0.9026.71128144.SZ利民转债108.80-0.905.62127035.SZ濮耐转债110.00-0.9020.80110072.SH广汇转债92.35-0.9036.05128075.SZ远东转债121.39-0.919.50113568.SH新春转债125.27-0.9129.88128097.SZ奥佳转债193.20-0.9227.73128018.SZ时达转债125.80-0.9310.70127015. SZ希望转债106.30-0.935.82110071.SH湖盐转债113.52-0.9361.71113570.SH百达转债107.96-0.944.97128128. SZ齐翔转2164.990.94115.07128032.SZ双环转债184.20-0.9769.56110075.SH南航转债123.18-0.9842.92113580.SH康隆转债243.72-0.9927.26128064.SZ司尔转债140.40-0.99216.65113537.SH文灿转债171.29-0.9978.61名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百万）113594.SH淳中转债108.291.003.52123044.SZ红相转债105.601.037.85123031.SZ晶瑞转债397.80-1.05781.75113504.SH艾华转债174.82-1.0678.55127034.SZ绿茵转债106.25-1.0720.86128103.SZ同德转债165.70-1.0761.29110045.SH海澜转债117.30-1.1524.25123022.SZ长信转债150.49-1.1863.47113025.SH明泰转债225.92-1.20210.65113612.SH永冠转债134.93-1.2024.89110047.SH山鹰转债119.05-1.2119.53123034.SZ通光转债182.90-1.28142.90123069.SZ金诺转债168.76-1.311,075.38123103.SZ震安转债157.00-1.32134.36123027.SZ蓝晓转债327.30-1.33300.19123010.SZIW世转债103.32-1.3423.82113607.SH伟20转债124.12-1.4216.07113608.SH威派转债113.11-1.4728.15113014.SH林洋转债119.17-1.5041.15110044.SH广电转债242.07-1.5372.56127031.SZ洋丰转债125.00-1.5438.38127029.SZ中钢转债165.10-1.56323.52113599.SH嘉友转债107.41-1.5713.40123057.SZ美联转债113.40-1.5931.76128017.SZ金禾转债164.16-1.6326.59110077.SH洪城转债122.35-1.706.04123091.SZ长海转债128.30-1.716.06128140.SZ润建转债120.88-1.7234.33113046.SH金田转债105.44-1.7913.50127022.SZ恒逸转债127.53-1.9064.28110061.SH川投转债131.44-1.9517.60113048.SH晶科转债112.72-1.9744.83123098.SZ一品转债151.71-2.10427.46113027.SH华钮转债112.17-2.11262.18128029.SZ太阳转债165.30-2.1922.27128033.SZ迪龙转债138.12-2.22236.29128113.SZ比音转债170.00>2.2735.68123043.SZ正元转债157.50-2.31290.92123046.SZ天铁转债248.202.32114.65110066.SH盛屯转债185.69-2.32501.37127004.SZ模塑转债170.36-2.37304.70128111.SZ中矿转债416.30-2.39713.34110033.SH国贸转债118.50-2.5388.71113623.SHN凤21转141.79-2.9183.01名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交触（百万）123013.SZ横河转债379.80-3.01270.10110070.SH凌钢转债119.80-3.0238.30128101.SZ联创转债148.88-3.04283.19113545.SH金能转债166.64-3.1450.22113034.SH滨化转债182.76-3.67106.20123105.SZ拓尔转债117.40-3.77615.85110048.SH福能转债150.96-3.93334.79113508.SH新风转债136.52-4.24425.97113527.SH维格转债183.81-5.55936.20123015.SZ蓝盾转债301.97-9.322,444.86123104.SZ卫宇转债000127023.SZ华菱转2000资蟀状能明ind.表7：诚朴嵇饿000股涨跌幅情况名称简称收盘价（元）深跌幅（%）成交额（亿）300303.SZ聚飞光电6.1820.0011.80300382.SZ斯莱克18.8412.213.78300424.SZ航新科技18.0911.605.45002446. SZ盛路通信6.7710.084.96603822.SH嘉澳环保36.5210.002.94603678.SH火炬电子82.219.9911.90002812.SZ恩捷股份258.128.6827.75300332.SZ天壕环境6.047.861.63300752.SZ隆利科技31.186.344.04002860.SZ星帅尔19.085.711.71300296.SZ利亚福9.675.6820.11600521.SH华海药业22.985.619.03601127.SH小康股份66.625.3915.20300065.SZ海兰信8.675.353.71300568.SZ星源材质40.605.3512.04300775.SZ三角防务40.355.227.09300511.SZ雪榕生物9.274.983.62603979.SH金诚信20.304.962.28603179.SH新泉股份33.744.850.90002865.SZ钧达股份27.154.832.70300335.SZ迪森股份5.414.640.72002002.SZ鸿达兴业4.364.5610.23002772.SZ众兴菌业15.344.289.99002049.SZ紫光国微168.383.9613.56002806.SZ华锋股份12.973.842.19300619.SZ金银河25.373.590.88002753.SZ永东股份10.033.511.43300772.SZ运达股份23.833.472.49名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（亿）002022.SZ科华生物14