大流行后世界中的印度城市.docx

Cover: Unsplash/Makm photographyInside: Shutterstock/Yavuz Sariyildiz;Gettylmages/D. Talukdar;Gettylmages/Suprabath DuttaContentsForeword Executive3. summaryMethodology6.1 Planning6.6.8.1.1 Short- and medium- term impactWhat should policy- makers do in the short, medium and long term?1.2 Looking ahead9.2 Housing9.9.10.2.1 Short- and medium- term impactWhat should policy- makers do in the short, medium and long term?2.2 Looking ahead11. 3 Transport11.12. Short- and medium- term impact3.1 What should policy- makers do in the short, medium and long term?3.2 Looking ahead14. 4 Public health14.15.15.4.1 Short- and medium- term impactWhat should policy- makers do in the short, medium and long term?4.2 Looking ahead16. 5 Environment16.17.17.5.1 Short- and medium- term impactWhat should policy- makers do in the short, medium and long term?5.2 Looking ahead18. 6 Gender18.21.21.6.1 Short- and medium- term impactWhat should policy- makers do in the short, medium and long term?6.2 Looking ahead22. 7 Vulnerable populations22.23.23.7.1 Short- and medium- term impactWhat should policy- makers do in the short, medium and long term?7.2 Looking ahead24. Conclusions26. ContributorsEndnotes© 2021 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.TransportThe pandemic presents an opportunity to transform urban transport and enact long- lasting adjustments aligned with the changing demand for mobility.The COVID- 19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of transport in making urban life possible. As public transport consultant Jarrett Walker has written, uin a pandemic we're all "transit dependent”'.25 To better understand the impact and long- term effects of COVID- 19 on transport, we interviewed Alain Bertaud and Shivanand Swamy.3.1 Short- and medium- term impactAs public transport slowly reopens in India, the short- and medium- term effects on urban transport could be sizeable. Recent perception studies have shown that 36%26 of people who previously travelled by trains will probably switch to using individual vehicles or other private transport options in the next few months. This is a worrying prospect, given that roads in Indian cities are already clogged. The 2019 TomTom Travel Index featured four Indian cities in the top 10 most congested cities in the world, with Bengaluru ranking equal first.FIGURE 2FIGURE 2The world's most congested citiesSource: Author's visualization based on 2019 TomTom TravelIt is clear that the implementation of physical distancing protocols is likely to affect demand for public transport for the next few years. Both experts stated that we are likely to see a rise in both ownership and usage of modes of transport with small footprints, such as private vehicles and scooters. While bicycle usage and pedestrianization have been cited as viable options for European cities post- pandemic, such commuting options would not work for Indian cities. This is due to their size and the large distances that residents have to cover when commuting to work. Further, warm and humid climatic conditions limit the use of bicycles in most cities without the option of a shower and change of clothes when travelling from home to work. Hence, the authorities will need to caterto the increased demands for private, individual mobility and accordingly tailor their policies.From the supply side, Swamy stated that the temporary termination of public transport during the lockdown effectively broke down a multitude of relationships between authorities and the employees that operate mass transport systems such as trains and buses. This particularly affected private operators, which could not pay their workers. Consequently, many of their workers migrated back to their home towns or villages. Hence, in the coming months, it will be critical to mend these relationships and enable more transport options from trains to private operators, such as Uber and Ola, to resume their operations smoothly.3.2What should policy- makers do in the short, medium and long term?® Minibuses provide a smaller footprint and run at faster speeds than large urban buses.It is crucial that officials carefully monitor what is happening in their cities. Data will be key. If authorities can regularly collect data on questions such as the number of people who would prefer to use a motorcycle over an underground railway, they will be able to understand the trends that develop after the pandemic and, in turn, be able to respond with policies favourable to these emerging commuting preferences. Thus, it is important that authorities try to offer viable alternatives with equivalent commuting times such as minibuses that facilitate some amount of physical distancing requirements. Moreover, minibuses provide a smaller footprint and run at faster speeds than large urban buses. Other options could include small, air- conditioned electric scooters such as the Toyota-1- road,27 which is visible on the streets of Tokyo.Source: Toyota Europe s : tovota- europe. com/world- of- toyota/ concept- cars/i- roadUrban transport was already heading towards the use of such travel options. In fact, as mentioned by Swamy, the pandemic offers policy- makers a chance to enact long- lasting changes by moving from the principle that the individual car is the most rapid mode of transport in large metropolitan areas in favour of other commuting modes.With that in mind, Bertaud added that the structure of large Indian metropolises has changed over the past 20 years, with an increased dispersion of jobs away from the traditional central business districts (CBDs) towards multipolar sub- centres. This structural change does not favour the traditional radio- concentric networks of rail and large buses. Hence, the challenge is to adapt the current supply of multimodal modes of transport to the new demand for commuting trips, while increasing the travel speed across metropolitan areas. According to Bertaud, this can be achieved by:1. Offering the possibility of combining intermediate public transport (IPT) trips, including by motorcycle, with commutes that use rail and express buses.2. Carefully managing the use of urban roads via improved traffic management (adding lanemarkings and traffic lights) as well as removing obstacles such as on- street parking and rubble that reduce road capacity for both pedestrians and motorized traffic.Bertaud also emphasized that long commuting times hinder cities' economic productivity, a loss that can be measured by looking at cities as labour markets. Faster mobility enables firms to access a wider pool of workers, and enables workers to access more jobs in cities. People often move to cities such as New Delhi or Bengaluru because of the millions of jobs available there. However, the high rate of congestion impedes the number of jobs that can be reached within one hour's commuting time. Ultimately, mobility should be designed as a catalyst for maximizing the number of employment opportunities that a person can access within 60 minutes of where they reside. This cannot happen without authorities shifting focus by integrating the individual movement of IPT with the collective movement of rail and express buses through high- capacity, small- footprint transport options. An example of such integration is Singapore's land transport system, which has introduced new point- to- point transport services h combination with integrated transport hubs.From a governance standpoint, Swamy stated that to improve the management and coordination of different kinds of mobility providers, authorities should work to ensure that the regulations followed by individual agencies are compatible with each other. To this end, organizations such as a Unified Metropolitan Transport Agency, which set rules and coordinate between different operators, have been established in a few cities including Mumbai.28 However, these bodies are often honorary in nature without much authority. Ultimately, it is critical that such agencies are provided with real powers to encourage more efficient urban mobility across different modes of transport.3.3 Looking aheadNo one can be sure whether the impact of COVID-19 on urban transport is a passing hiccup or a permanent feature. Hence, it is essential that city officials walk the streets and understand how the demand for different kinds of transport is changing.By doing so, they will be able to mitigate the repercussions of COVID-19 for mass transport and mobility, and provide viable travel options and policies.4 Public healthThe pandemic has exposed significant gaps in urban public health systems. Focus on budgets, governance and data can help improve the public health system in Indian cities.The novel coronavirus pandemic has laid bare the dire need to revamp public health in India and ensure effective responses to such a crisis in the future. To understand how lessons from COVID- 19 can be translated into policy objectives for better healthcare, we interviewed Shamika Ravi and Shruti Rajagopalan.4.1 Short- and medium- term impactThe most immediate effect of the pandemic has been the near- collapse of Indian cities5 public health systems. Low capacity distorted policy- makers' incentives and affected public healthcare across the board. Apart from the needs of COVID- 19- infected patients not being met, patients with other diseases such as tuberculosis (TB) were not receiving adequate care, owing to outpatient departments being shut down, medical staff being diverted to COVID- 19 response and travel restrictions within cities.29Ravi stated that urban residents are generally exposed to a range of health problems. Respiratory diseases as a result of air pollution have dramatically increased over the past 25 years. India hosts six out of the 10 most polluted cities30 in the world, with New Delhi being the most polluted capital city. One of the main contributors to pollution is traffic congestion, which stems from faulty urban planning. Ravi highlighted that it is not just big metropolitan regions such as Mumbai and Bengaluru that are affected; smaller cities like Kanpur and Patna also grapple with high levels of pollution. This has resulted31 in high mortality and disease burdens for residents. While rural areas also face issues related to pollution, with higher adoption of clean energy these challenges can be tackled at a household level unlike in cities.Ravi further argued that better city planning is needed, especially in urban agglomerations where every district has similar existing administrative systems. Moreover, crowded areas such as slums need to be prioritized immediately. Technology and communication platforms could be used to provide real- time information to better manage the supply of healthcare services.4.2 What should policy- makers do in the short, medium and long term?Rajagopalan argued that we need more fiscal federalism in addition to political federalism.Three areas in which the public healthcare system can improve are budgets, governance and data.A pandemic is a rare event; only a handful of countries globally have demonstrated the capacity to handle a crisis of the magnitude of COVID- 19. Moreover, Rajagopalan highlighted that if we were fully armed to deal with such outbreaks, on a regular basis, healthcare facilities would run at 70-80% excess capacity; this would break healthcare finances. However, we need to be equipped administratively to be able to adapt and respond quickly to such emergencies. Currently, insufficient resources are allocated to train doctors and retain talent. Ravi recommended that the marshalling of resources to augment health capacity needs to go hand in hand with the changing nature of diseases, e.g. from communicable to non- communicable, and for future needs. Additionally, boosting primary healthcare to ensure the prevention of diseases is imperative in a populous country such as India with low state capacity to manage the demands of secondary or tertiary care.On governance, Rajagopalan argued that we need more fiscal federalism in addition to political federalism. Kerala's decentralized health system and resilient local self- government increased its COVID- 19 responsiveness, both in providing services to infected people and in isolating potential cases. Ravi stated that the disparities in state responses indicate a management problem, that is, mobilizing limited resources for the best outcome. Hence, public health needs to become a foundation of governance and growth.Additionally, city governments need to be empowered so that they can raise funds and tackle public health and sanitation locally. Elected representatives need to spend locally raised revenue on matters aligned with the needs of the local community. Instead, the tendency has been to centralize functioning, even in times of crises. Locally raised revenue is shared with the state government, and revenue- raising powers also favour state governments. Spending decisions happen at the state or central level, which leaves no autonomy for local bodies even in times ofcrisis. The 12th schedule of the Indian Constitution outlines the functions that could be devolved to local governments but does not mandate raising their own revenues; hence powers are rarely devolved, especially in poorer states.Rajagopalan emphasized that, since local governments are not responsible for their own funding, their policies suffer. A study32 by the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations reveals that total municipal revenues as a share of GDP for 37 municipal corporations has declined from 0.49% in 2012-2013 to 0.45% in 2017-2018. Own revenues, raised by local governments, have reduced from 0.33% to 0.23% of GDP in the same time period. Property tax collections and leasing of public lands are steady sources of locally raised revenue (if property is accurately enumerated and objectively valued, and land is priced at market rates). Furthermore, protocols on spending are necessary both in emergencies and standard times, but local authorities, which have knowledge of on- the- ground realities, should be empowered and be responsible for these decisions.Lastly, it is necessary to collect and collate real- time data to bridge the gaps between the demand and supply of healthcare services. On the demand side, Ravi mentioned that data on disease incidence, accessibility issues and quality of existing facilities and services ought to be collected.