国际石油公司与能源转型.docx

CONTENTSFIGU RES涮娴涮涮涮涮帆帆涮涮涮娴柄他涮帆涮涮娴娴帆帆帆涮涮涮的涮的涮涮涮的涮涮涮涮涮珊的5 TABLESWWW楙怫楸硼楙楙楙WWWW楙怫WW怖楙帆WW赧楙楙怫WW楙楙肺5 ABBREVIATIONS删航涮涮涮涮涮楸涮椭涮涮涮怖楙帆涮惭娴涮涮涮涮惭楙涮涮的帆侧楙 6 KEY FINDINGS蝌涮硼涮帆帆涮涮涮涮娴0帆涮涮涮涮涮帆涮炳涮涮的涮帆帆涮涮涮柄涮帆涮涮胸7好INTRODUCTION涮硒涮帆帆的涮涮涮涮涮帆涮涮的的蜥涮帆帆涮涮涮的帆帆涮涮帆涮珊娴涮涮10 m Aims and objedves楸蝌恤帆蝌楙楸郴愀楙蝌楸楙懒椭侧郴楸椭楙侧椭椭郴楙郴11 工花Strudure楙楸楙楙喉靴瞬酬阚郴愀郴郴郴郴郴册郴楙醐郴郴楙楙郴郴楙晒醐楙1120 OIL COMPARES AND HISTORICAL ENGAGEMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY帆娴的012211 International oil companies楙峨郴帏赚郴帏靴哪郴楙醐靴醐郴椭靴哪楙瞬楙靴瞬郴微靴郴郴13 BP plcii楙椭椭椭椭例椭椭例椭椭楙椭椭椭椭例椭郴楙楠楙楙桶桶椭柳楙椭椭楙楙描蒯柚怖楙楙椭椭柚梢郴柳楙麻椭制椭椭椭椭楙似5 Chevron Corporation椭椭郴楙柚郴郴郴楙楙郴郴椭郴柳椭楙楙郴郴椭椭郴聃郴楙郴楙郴制郴椭椭郴郴郴椭郴郴似5 Eni SipjA郴郴椭椭楙郴椭郴郴楙楙郴椭郴桶郴楙郴椭郴郴郴椭郴楙郴郴椭郴郴郴郴郴楙柳神郴郴椭郴郴郴麻神16 Equinor ASA椭椭椭郴椭椭椭楙椭椭椭麻椭柚楙楙楙楙椭桶柳柳楙椭椭椭郴州椭椭椭楙柚楙楙椭神椭椭郴州椭椭椭椭郴解椭郴楙郴。 ExxonMobil Corporation梢椭郴郴麻神楙椭郴郴楙郴楙郴郴郴椭楙郴楙郴楙椭惆郴郴郴楙郴郴楙郴郴椭郴郴郴阳7 Royal Dutch Shell plc描楙麻郴楙楙郴郴郴楙郴郴柳郴郴椭楙册郴郴椭柳神郴郴楙郴郴郴柳椭制郴郴椭制洲郴郴18 Total SE惆郴郴郴郴椭郴楙楙郴椭椭郴楙椭神楙郴椭郴精郴郴楙椭郴郴楙郴楙郴附楙郴楙郴郴郴椭林郴郴郴柚郴202陀 Preliminary 甘ndings楙楙郴炳楙愀楸楸OWWWOWWWOOWWWOWWWWOO 213| WHAT ARE THE COMPANIES7 ANNOUNCED FUTURE COMMITMENTS?涮的涮珊的册的22301 International oil companies7 long-term climate targets302 Additional findings WWWOWOWOWWOOWWWWWOWWWWOWWWWWWWWO253|3 Oil companies, financial strategies and implications for the energy transition OOOO25 Total revenues and profits per segment and allocation of investmentsi楙楙楙郴神例楙楙楙楙削椭柚楙楙楙H楙楙楙椭28 Profit margin柚郴涮椭郴郴椭郴郴郴椭郴楙郴郴楙郴楙郴椭椭郴椭郴椭椭郴楙楙椭册郴椭神商楙郴楙楙州柳麻洲做29 Share price evolution郴郴郴郴府郴椭椭郴郴楙郴楙郴楙楙楙椭椭郴楙楙楙楙楙州椭椭郴楙郴楙楙楙楙郴椭郴郴郴涮31 Market value郴惆郴楙郴楙楙郴郴描柳怖怖删郴郴楙刷郴郴楙楙郴楙郴楙郴郴册删惆郴楙郴桶郴椭椭神郴32 Oil price forecast椭刷郴椭册楙郴椭椭郴神郴郴郴楙怖郴柚删郴楙椭怖摘植郴临郴郴郴楙郴楙椭郴郴楙制椭322. OIL COMPANIES AND HISTORICAL ENGAGEMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGYClimate change challenges and the rise of renewable energy sources are increasing the social and environmental pressure on oil companies to re-position themselves in the societies in which they operate. They have been doing this in a variety of different ways.Firstly, some oil companies have continued with business as usual and are strengthening their current strategies of oil extraction to maximise profits. Secondly, other oil companies have switched to low carbon sources, such as natural gas, blue hydrogen and biofuels. Switching from oil to gas would result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions and greater efficiency, while biofuels are already being used to a large extent (blended into petrol and diesel) but raise concerns regarding biodiversity effects and competing land use. Some oil companies are already using carbon capture and storage (CCS) for enhanced oil recovery, and are converting natural gas into hydrogen and capturing the CO2 released to produce a valuable fuel that could be used in home heating, industry and eventually ships and planes (Mills, 2019). Finally, other oil companies are, with different degrees of intensity and commitment, transitioning to renewable energy and related technologies, such as solar, wind, EVs and green hydrogen.Before diving into analysis of the main oil companies, which is the primary focus of this paper, it is worth mentioning the national oil companies and briefly summarising their approach towards the energy transition. National oil companies are state-owned leading petroleum producers that are primarily managed directly by governments; they represent more than 85% of global oil production and include companies such as Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Brazil's Petrobras, China's Sinopec and Malaysia's Petronas.The attitude of national oil companies towards the energy transition depends on and is subject to diverse factors, such as the size of their markets (/.e.z largely domestic or primarily exporters), governance structures, funding from fuel subsidies, as well as the institutional features of their home countries (political stability, regulatory quality, etc.), However, similar to the international oil companies, national oil companies are also embracing the energy transition through the adoption of strategies such as reducing energy consumption and/or emissions in oil production processes and facilities, investing in alternative fuel vehicles, and investing in new technologies such as CCS and hydrogen.Some national oil companies have started using renewable energy in their facilities or providing it to other sectors. The latter, however, is not their key activity, and in some instances they are leaving the renewable energy production and ownership to their electricity sector counterparts in their home countries (Shojaeddini et al, 2019). For example, ADNOC has not established renewable energy assets on its own but rather co-operates with the Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar), which is leading renewables development in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and through investment abroad (/.e.z solar PV and wind).In their strategies to lower emissions, almost all national oil companies are pursuing energy efficiency improvements and emission reduction strategies, including gas flaring reductions (Shojaeddini, et al., 2019). Saudi Aramco stands out as a first mover in flaring as a result of Saudi Arabia's Master Gas System in the 1970s, rolling out a company-wide Flaring Minimisation Roadmap, and through the pursuit of circular carbon economy technologies today.Some national oil companies are also engaged in renewable energy activities. China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) revived its activities in offshore wind power in 2019, after closing its renewable unit in 2014 (which operated wind, solar and biomass projects). The offshore wind sector aligns with the company's overall business, which can apply its resources in offshore engineering and its experience in offshore operations in the sector (Xin, 2020). Similarly, Saudi Aramco has long been interested renewable energy and recently revealed plans to launch a new USD 500 million fund to promote energy efficiency and renewable technologies (Murray, 2020). Petrobras is actively engaged in biofuel energy generation with several biodiesel plants. However, with regard to renewables in general, Petrobras recently announced its intention to focus only on research and to stop investing in operational assets, as this ''requires competencies different from the oil and gas business77 (Spatuzza, 2019).In addition, national oil companies are actively exploring the use of CCS as well as carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS), which represents a game changer that would allow them to keep producing oil but with fewer emissions. The first CCUS facility in the Middle East, Reyadhah, was developed by ADNOC together with Masdar and has the capacity to capture 800 000 tonnes of CO2 annually, with plans to expand this to 5 million tonnes by 2030 (Hydrocarbonprocessing, 2020). Petronas also announced at the end of 2020 its strategy to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.This follows the company's more than two-decade- long journey to integrate sustainable practices into its business and decision making (Petronas, 2020).Thanks to their better access to capital, experience in managing large projects and easy access to sidled professionals, national oil companies could play a key role in boosting the energy transition and driving the expansion of renewables. However, national oil companies may be reluctant to abandon the billiondollar fossil fuel business for the less appealing profits and tighter margins of renewable energy projects (Heller, 2019). In addition, national oil companies are primarily managed directly by governments, in contexts where societies depend heavily on oil income. As such, they face specific challenges related to their mandated stewardship of national hydrocarbon resources, and thus their decision-making process is highly policy driven.2.1 INTERNATIONAL OIL COMPANIESThis paper focuses primarily on the seven main international oil companies: BP plc, Chevron Corporation, Eni S.p.A, Equinor ASA, ExxonMobil Corporation, Royal Dutch Shell plc and Total SE. These companies were selected for analysis because, as independent and private sector businesses, they are the largest publicly traded oil companies and together accounted for 13%Calculated based on oil production per company in 2018 (from annual statements) and world oil production: Ycharts (from YCharts ).This paper focuses primarily on the seven main international oil companies: BP plc, Chevron Corporation, Eni S.p.A, Equinor ASA, ExxonMobil Corporation, Royal Dutch Shell plc and Total SE. These companies were selected for analysis because, as independent and private sector businesses, they are the largest publicly traded oil companies and together accounted for 13%Calculated based on oil production per company in 2018 (from annual statements) and world oil production: Ycharts (from YCharts ). of total global oil production in 2018.Table 1 provides a brief overview of the seven companies'activities in low-carbon technologies.Table 1: Overview of oil companies' engagement with low-carbon technologiesssNqdNOUssoOIONHYl A9H3NIXINs-Ju OH NO_luncJOBd 1_。 QNOAllJmwN-aNqdxwNo二unaoHd 1_。z- SSOOIONHY.L NOSUWMOI ONLL4UO山 IN-SNO-SS-IAH UWMO-JOHSJ.NUJm>N 一 z-<5 AWO-JONHU31 Aoa 山 NS 山 ISX/MWN山uAt9a.LunUJ IAI金 B1SNMOCI N- S1NUJI/I.LS3>N-AUUWNUJLUlCQqMWN 山u(SQNrH u。lN5f 山一NOBHVUMO-Jz- s-LNllJnwoqoNW HWH.LOBP plcVOnshore wind, solar, biofuels, EVs infrastructure, batteries50 gigawatts (GW) by 2030Joint ventures with renewable companiesChevronCorporationN/AN/AFuture Energy Fund to invest in breakthrough low-carbon emission technologiesEni S.p.ASolar, wind, hydrogen, 7EVs batteriesand chargers, biofuels15 GW by 2030 and 55 GW by 2050Venture capital fund for R&D in renewables with universities and research centresEquinor ASASolar, offshore wind, hydrogen, EVs4-6 GW by 2026 and 12-16 GW by 2035Joint ventures with renewable companiesExxonMobil CorporationRoyal DutchShell plcN/AN/ATotal SEOffshore wind, hydrogen, biofuels, EVsInvestUSD 3 b川ion in renewable energy (including hydrogen) per year by 2030Investments in renewable start-ups and innovation hubs35 GW of renewable electricity by 2025Joint ventures with renewable companiesSources： (Holder, M.z 2021), (Equinor, 2021a), (Jewkes； S., 2020a), (Nasralla, S. and Twidale, S” 2020), (Total, 2020a) and companies strategiesIn addition to the above activities, all seven companies (as well as some national oil companies) are members of the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI), a CEO-led initiative founded in 2014 aiming at leading the oil and gas industry response to climate change and scale up low carbon energy solutions - focusing on areas where OGCI can add value, beyond what individual members can do, or the market already offers. OGCI prioritises its activities around three objectives: i) reducing CH4 emissions, ii) Reducing CO2 emissions and iii) removing CO2 (CCUS).The following sub-sections briefly present the historical evolution of each company in its approach and commitment (i.e, investments, new business activities, etc.) to renewable energy and low-carbon technologies. Based on Table 1 and the descriptions of the companies, some preliminary conclusions on the companies' engagement in the energy transition are drawn at the end of the section.BP plcBP was the first oil major company to diversify into renewable energy, showing interest in renewables from 1980 to 2010 with investments in solar and wind power (in both manufacturing and project development) (Pickl, 2019). In the early 2000s the company rebranded itself as uBeyond Petroleumz, investing USD 200 million in this new strategy, and established BP Alternative Energy to highlight its new commitment to the energy transition. However, due to difficulties in shifting from one line of business to the other, BP had to cancel more than half of its original investments in renewables.Despite the difficulties in entering the renewable energy business, BP still remains one of the oil companies with the largest such portfolios among its peers. BP still has onshore wind assets in the United States (US) and a CCS joint venture with Chevron, Petrobras and Suncor. The company also owns a biofuel business (sugarcane processing, ethanol production, R&D) in Brazil, which started in 2008 when BP became a shareholder of the Tropical BioEnergia plant. The company now operates three sugarcane processing units in Brazil: two in Goias and one in Minas Gerais. BP also is partnering with DuPont on a technology called Butamax, which converts corn sugar into bio-isobutanol - a biofuel that is more energy rich than ethanol and can be blended with petrol in higher concentrations and transported through existing fuel pipelines and infrastructure (BP, 2019).In early 2018z BP's Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley declared that the company was scanning opportunities to design strategies for a life beyond oil (Gilblom and Schatzker, 2018). The company returned to a sector that it had withdrawn from more than five years earlier by investing USD 200 million in Lightsource, Europe's largest solar power developer (Sheppard and Raval, 2018). This comeback was followed by three additional steps in 2018 towards a low-carbon future. First, the company acquired a stake in FreeWire, a US company developing rapid charging infrastructure for EVs. Other deals followed, including a USD 20 million investment in StoreDot, an Israeli developer of ultra- fast-charging batteries, and a partnership signed with the Chinese private equity group NIO Capital to invest in ''advanced mobility,/ technology in China (Ward and Hook, 2018).In 2019, BP committed to becoming a net-zero company by 2050. This means lowering emissions from the company's operations 30-35% and reducing carbon- related emissions in upstream oil and gas production 35-40% by 2030. By 2050, BP aims to tackle around 415 million tonnes of emissions - 55 million tonnes from its operations and 360 million tonnes from the carbon content of its upstream oil and gas production. The company also aims to cut the carbon intensity of the products it sells 50% by 2050 or sooner. Finally, BP is focusing on low-carbon energy, including through a 10-fold increase in low-carbon investment by 2030, and an up to 8-fold increase by 2025, partnering with 10-15 cities and 3 core industries in decarbonisation efforts (BP, 2020). In August 2020, the company announced that it would add 50 GW of renewables (wind, solar and hydropower) to its portfolio by 2030 (up from 2.5 GW currently) (Nasralla and Twidale, 2020).Chevron CorporationChevron made three early attempts (2000, 2014 and 2016) to establish its presence in renewable energy, namely in solar, wind and geothermal. However, thelower returns of the renewable business compared to oil and gas made the company revisit its strategy and continue focusing on its original core activities, while still ownin