如何分析并作出正确的决策HowToAutomateSm67696.pptx
How To Automate Smart Decision Making with BI&AnalyticsMark Smith CEO&EVP Research2006,Ventana Research,Inc.Agenda What is decision management technology What kinds of decisions should not be automated?What are rule-based systems and why are they advantageous?Whats are main the differences between BI,Analytics and Decision Management?How are the above practices/technologies measured?22006,Ventana Research,Inc.Excessive Focus on Understanding:Rear View,Historical Perspective32006,Ventana Research,Inc.Performance Management Provides Emphasis on Improvement and Automation of DecisionsA methodology that examines the people,process,information and technology and a process that aligns business and technology to improve results.Performance Management ProcessUnderstand Comprehend the status of people,organization and business processes.Optimize Plan for future actions and decisions that can achieve the objectives and goals.Align Communicate and provide guidance,objectives,goals and incentives.Ventana Research PerformanceCyclePerformance Management42006,Ventana Research,Inc.Decision ManagementImprove business decisions through design,deployment and refinement of operational decision making proceduresDecision Management helps enterprise make better,more consistent business decisionsMaximize revenue,minimize costs,streamline business processesVia Web,OLTP,call center,and batch applicationsAgile evolution of decision making to meet new business challengesGive data analysts,business policy makers,corporate portfolio managers,and it implementers tools to understand and use each others informationUse analysis of the past to modify decision strategies in the present to correctly manage and guide future activitiesWhat is It?52006,Ventana Research,Inc.Decision Management ExamplesCustomer management decisionshow to handle particular requests for services,how to treat customers in collections,whether to increase exposure to current customers through additional credit offers,etc.Supplier selection decisionswhich supplier to use for a given order of parts based on cost,past delivery history,customer preferences,etc.Advertiser selection decisionswhich advertiser should be selected for a given advertisement opportunity given existing contracts,type of opportunity,recently shown ads,etc.Audit selection decisionswhich taxpayers should be selected for auditing given experience with previous audits,past filings,current policies,etc.62006,Ventana Research,Inc.Examining Decision Cycles for Automation1-RecognizeThreat/Opp.3-Set Goals/Objectives2-UnderstandFactors4-DeviseSolutions5-CompareSolutions6-Decideon Action Plan7-ExecuteAction Plan8-ReviewAction resultsInformationAcquisitionGoal SettingDecisionMakingActionCoordinationAreas of facilitation of the decision making processAutomatedDecisionSystemsTraditional BI use72006,Ventana Research,Inc.Decision Management and AutomationAutomated does not mean lights outDecision review sometime or always requiredDecision exception managementRules engine maintenance and updatesInputAutomated DecisionsModels/RulesReviewsExceptions82006,Ventana Research,Inc.Application or User requesting a decisionDecision Management FrameworkDecision Management Application or InterfacePredictive ModelsDevelopmentEnvironmentBusiness Rule EngineDataSourcesThird Party Applications orInterfacesRepository92006,Ventana Research,Inc.Business Rules Decision ManagementRules are conditional statements of how to respond to data or events with a business transactionIf Ferrari is$30,then buy quicklyBusiness rules take many formsPolicies,practices,and procedures you use to make operational decisionsStrategies based on historical data and business acumenDecision TreesDecision TablesRules carry out actions suggested by modeling and optimization strategiesBusiness rules are found in your company policy manuals,in lines of code in legacy systems,interdepartmental memos,and in the minds of your experienced employees102006,Ventana Research,Inc.Business Rules Decision ManagementRules EnginesEvolution of Expert systemsTwo step processCreate rules using expertsDeploy the rule setWhats newGraphical development and administrationMature rule development environmentsRobust platformsIntegration with complimentary technologiesAccessible to business managers/non-technologistsIndustry experience with success and failure112006,Ventana Research,Inc.Predictive Modeling Decision ManagementPredictive ModelingApplied statistics and other data mining approachesRegression/Neural NetworksClassification,Segmentation2 step processCreate the model,use the modelWhats newImproved,graphical user interfacesAutomation of model creationIntegration with rules enginesIndustry experience with success and failure122006,Ventana Research,Inc.Decision Management-Maturity CurveBusiness RulesAutomationLeveraged ExpertiseAutomated DecisionsNo OptimizationDecision RefinementLeveraged ExpertiseAutomated DecisionsManual TuningAdaptive ControlAutomated accessAutomated processingDecision Testing Manual TuningPredictive ModelingAutomated accessAutomated processingDecision Testing Predictive ModelsManual analysisManual decisionsDecision OptimizationAutomated accessAutomated processingRouted DecisionsPredictive ModelsManual analysisManual decisions132006,Ventana Research,Inc.Decision Management Application NeedsE-Commerce now a driving factor in real-time transactions$80B annual run rate(Q4CY2004)(US Census Bureau)+29%from Q3CY20042%of total US salesRetailing Merchant SurveyAmong Top 5 key selling toolsCross-sell/Up-sell,Promotions,Sales/SpecialsCommerce Fraud2004 On-line commerce fraud losses$2.6B(CyberSource survey)2004 On-line losses growth 25%-30%growth expectedManual review increasedSpeed of e-commerceInteractive transaction rates now 10-20 seconds for leading sites(Keynote)Skills and turnover of workforce10%-30%turnover(Call Center Mgmt Review)142006,Ventana Research,Inc.Best Practices in Identification of Decision ManagementHigh decision volumeManual oversight is not technically or economically feasible.Potential for respective cost savings or incremental revenueInconsistent workforce decision skillsHigh employee turnoverLow position compensationNeed for self-serviceBusiness demand a presence on the webServices require instant decision making on pricing,packaging,delivery and other facets.Web-site visitors expect instant response.Past indicates the futureDecision input/outcome relationship can be measured and modeledDecisions consistent over timeInternet is a key business enablerCustomers,and employees expect fast,high-value interactions Comparable performance,personalization and accommodation are a critical success factor for your business.152006,Ventana Research,Inc.Converging Technologies from Business Intelligence to Decision ManagementTools&ApplicationsMonitoring&AlertingPlatform and Server TechnologyDashboard&Scorecard Information Management&Master Data MgtAnalytics&LocationReporting&VisualizationIntegration Management(Application,Data&Info.)1995-2004Query&AnalysisPlatformsReportingModeling&AnalyticsRules&WorkflowMaster Data Management2006-Rules&WorkflowData Mining&Modeling162006,Ventana Research,Inc.BusinessUnderstandingDecision Management Enables Performance ManagementPerformanceManagementShrinkingResponseTimeInconsistentDecision MakingLimitedDecisionCompetenceDecisionRiskDecision Mgt BenefitsEncodedDecisionProcessImprovedROIFacilitatedDecisionsAutomatedDecisions172006,Ventana Research,Inc.Faster response to customers and partnersGreater consistency of decision makingLower cost of decision makingOverall decision outcome improvementKnowledge workers available for higher value tasksIT costs lowered as application design are simplifiedSummaryDecision Management is part of Performance Management and Expands your Business Intelligence and Analytics EffortsValue182006,Ventana Research,Inc.Ventana Research Analyst Summit-Connections 2006 San Francisco in JuneJune 11-14 in San Francisco,California at FairmontSunday Night Welcome Reception,Monday and Tuesday,and Wednesday Conference Workshops in morningContent:Performance Management3 Tracks:Finance,Operations,ITKeynotes:Winning SunTrust Racing TeamScott Adams Author of Dilbert192006,Ventana Research,Inc.?Conclusion Contact Information?202006,Ventana Research,Inc.About Ventana ResearchWe are the leading Performance Management research and advisory services firm.We help business and IT be more efficient and effective by providing expert insights and guidance.ResearchAdvisoryConsultingOur research and advisory knowledge provides direct value for assessment and recommendationsOur research and experience is leveraged throughout a yearfor our clients to maximize investmentsOur research is the foundation that provides valuable insight to ourknowledge of market212006,Ventana Research,Inc.
