后疫情的复苏：通往低碳富弹性的未来之路.docx

COVID-19 RECOVERYA Pathway to a Low-Carbon and Resilient FutureThe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented and tragic global health crisis. To contain COVID-19, governments have implemented strict lockdowns and curbed mobility, stalling economies and leading to a potential global economic and financial crisis. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates that the global economy could suffer between $5.8 trillion and $8.8 trillion in lossesequivalent to 6.4% to 9.7% of global gross domestic product.1 Policy makers are grappling with the often-competing interests of managing the public health risk and limiting the scale of the economic damage.Implementing the emergency response to COVID-19 has rightly taken priority. However, as developing member countries (DMCs) begin to emerge from the lockdowns and plan their recovery, attention must return to addressing the climate crisis and building resilience. We do not have the time or the financing to deal with each crisis separately. The impact of climate change is already being felt, and is becoming more severe every year. Pre-COVID-19 analysis showed that climate change could push an additional 100 million people into poverty by 2030. By 2050, it could depress growth in global agriculture yields by up to 30%, and result in additional costs to coastal urban areas of more than $1 trillion each year.2 Current global emission reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement are also insufficient, and would lead to a temperature rise of 3.2#C this centurywell over the 1.5 target. United Nations Environment Programme. 2019. Emissions Gap Reporf 2019. Nairobi. s:/www»unenviromnentorg/interactive/emi88ionsflapreport/2019/. Compounding this predicament, COVID-19 has exposed gaps in social protection systems and wider policies for delivering public goods, and has highlighted the underlying drivers of vulnerabilitypoverty, inequality, limited social safety nets, weak health systems, and structural gender inequality, among others. It has also heightened awareness of all types of risks, and made a strong case for adopting risk-informed decision making. There is an urgent need to address vulnerabilities and mainstream resilience to manage future shocks, including increasing climate- and disaster-related shocks.1 Asian Development Bank (ADB). 2020. An Updated Assessment of the Economic bnpuct of COVID-19. Manila. .2 Global Commission on Adaptation. 2019. Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience. Washington DC.Framework for Assessing Low-Carbon and Resilient Recovery InterventionsRecovery MeasuresClimate and Resilience Results and BenefitsType of Measur eRequirements of COVID-19 Recovery MeasuresShort Implementatio n TimelineHigh Employme nt IntensitySkills Dev&opme ntStron g Suppl y ChainHigh Economi c MutliplH) rContribution to the Productive Asset BaseSupport for Long-Term Transformatio nPositive Environment al and Social OutcomesLow-Cartoon DevelopmentInvestment in low-carbon (renewable) energy production and energy storage infrastructure中R3DIMediumHighHighMediumHighHighHighHighExtension and modernization of the grid to support higher renewable penetrationDwp RmDIMediumHighHighMediumHighHighHighHighPublic procurement program for purchase and installation of energyefficient appliances( lighting, and digital devices for public buildingsgmDIHighHighHighHighMediumHighHighHighIncentives for home renovations and retrofits, including low- and zero- energy measures, in affected regions。口中RP&RHighHighHighMediumMediumMediumHighHighIntroduction of green tax regimes, e.gn carbon taxes, carbon price floor (for industry) RiQP&RLowLowHighMediumHighMediumHighHighPlanning of urban green redevelopment/'regeneration and sustainable spaces (smart cities)A 口中aTLowLowHighMediumHighHighHighHighDevelopment and scale-up of radical transport (universal and comprehensive public transport/car-free movement)40中a tpgoTLowLowHighMediumHighHighHighHighClimate and Disaster ResilienceReorientation of labor market programs to support resiliencebuilding measures (e.g., water resource conservation, reforestation)DIHighHighMediumLowMediumMediumHighHighDevelopment of climate-resilient agricultural value chainsQ h 中a 口DIMediumHighHighHighHighHighHighHighInvestment in protective infrastructure to strengthen resilience (eg. coastal protection, flood defense)8Hd叱卬DIMediumMediumMediumMediumMediumMediumHighHighActive labor market policies and economic stimulus to support job creation in resilience sectors中4胆P&RMediumHighHighMediumH功MediumHighHighIntroduction of policy reforms to enhance resilience (e.g. payment for ecosystem service schemes)&珏中MRP&RMediumMediumLowHighMediumMediumHighHighHighHighHighHighTransformation of rural food and land use-systems, including to shift a sustainable and resilient productionAa中总口TLowMediumHighHighRisk-sensitive landmse managementKm中a口中THighLowHighMediumMediumMediumHighHigh* Note:will wry by country, or ewn by region.is far illustrative purposes onlyClimate and Resilience Results and BenefitsAddresses vulnerabilitiesTargets COVID-19 impacted sectors or populationsTargets disadvantged groups (e.g., regional, women)Builds long-term resilienceSupports development of high level technology (e.gM low-carbon)Supports long-term decarbonizationConsistent with nationalpolicies and plansType of MeasureDI = direct investmentP&R = policy and regulatoryT= transformativePotential torecovery oojectives(=)LowI I MediumHighThese can include: a short implementation timeline; job generation or labor intensity (particularly in the early stages); skill development; minimized supply chain risk; and high economic multipliers. In the longer term, governments may look for measures that contribute to the productive asset base and promote positive transformation, while also delivering environmental and social outcomes. COVID-19 has also led to asymmetric socioeconomic impact across sectors, and within and between countries; for this reason, recovery interventions should also target the most affected groups or regions, where possible. This is particularly critical with regard to addressing the gender-related implications for women and girls, especially those belonging to vulnerable groups.The framework should be tailored to reflect the specific circumstances and objectives of the country (the framework presented in the Table provides a selection of recovery measures). The framework can be used for a rapid initial assessment of potential interventions based on a qualitative assessment of measures (as shown below), or developed further for deeper analysis, including, for example, making a separate assessment for each phase of recovery, or using a quantitative assessment of the performance of measures. The steps involved in this assessment include the following: Defining the requirements, or ood recovery" characteristics, for the COVID-19 recovery. These will reflect the priorities for recovery, such as job creation and speed of implementation. The assessment can also be disaggregated at a lower level, and criteria can be defined for specific phases, regions, or sectors. Defining how the performance of each measure against the criteria will be assessed. In the example presented in the Table, a qualitative uhigh/Mmedium/1<low, assessment was used. This approach supports a more rapid assessment. A more detailed analysis could be doneby assigning weights or scores to certain criteria, for example. Defining the criteria for assessing climate and resilience benefits, such as building resilience and contributing to long-term decarbonization. Identifying a long list of potential low-carbon and resilient recovery interventions to be assessed (including considering goals set in existing NDCs and disaster risk management strategies), and organizing these into relevant groups (e.g., direct investment, policy and regulatory changes, institutional strengthening, and capacity development).ADB SUPPORT FOR ITS DEVELOPING MEMBER COUNTRIESADB is supporting its DMCs through a S20 billion assistance package to help counter the severe macroeconomic and health impacts caused by COVID-19.6 As the DMCs move to the medium- and long-term recovery phases, they will need additional support, including support for the private sector.7ADB can play a critical role in promoting the integration of low-carbon development and climate and disaster resilience into the COVID-19 recovery plans of its DMCs, in line with the vision articulated in ADB's Strategy 20308to achieve a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacificand ADB's commitment to helping its DMCs meet their targets under the Paris Agreement. ADB is committed to achieving its climate targets, ensuring that at least 75% of its projects focus on climate change mitigation and adaptation, while providing $80 billion in climate finance cumulatively by 2030.ADB will continue to facilitate access to global climate funds, such as the Climate Investment Funds and the Green Climate Fund, and support its DMCs through existing climate and disaster programs and initiatives: the NDC Advance Platform, which is helping to boost the capacity of the DMCs to meet their climate objectives by translating their NDCs into climate investment plans, giving the DMCs better access to external public and private climate finance, and developing methods and tools for monitoring progress on climate action;the Community Resilience Partnership Program, which is designed to support the DMCs in scaling up investments in local resilience that explicitly address the nexus between poverty, gender, and climate and disaster risk;ADB has approved a number of technical assistance and Asia Pacific Disaster Response Fund grants, as well as various non-sovereign operations, and worked with its DMCs to develop solutions, including emergency assistance loans and grants, to ease the immediate impact of the crisis. On 18 March 2020, ADB announced a S6.5 b川ion package to address the immediate needs of its DMCs as they respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. On 13 April 2020, ADB expanded its response to a total of $20 billion by making available up to $13 billion in additional regular ordinary capital resources to finance countercyclical expenditures, and additional grant and technical assistance resources.ADB. 2020. ADB's Comprehensive Response to theCOV!D-19 Pandemic: Policy Paper. Manila. s:/ adbQrg/documentWadb-comprehensive-response-covicb'19-pandemiapolicy-paper.ADB. 2018. Strategy 2030: Achieving a Prosperous, htclusive, Resilient, and Sustahmble Asia and the Pacific. Manila. s:/ adb. orfl/documents/strategw2o3Q«prosperousinclusive-reslHent-sustainable-asiai>acific. the Urban Platform for Climate Finance, which will assist cities in implementing climate-resilient and low- carbon investment plans;the Article 6 Support Facility, which is providing technical capacity-building and policy development support to the DMCs to improve their capacity and preparedness to gain access to new carbon markets envisaged within the Article 6 framework; the Asia Pacific Climate Finance Fund, which was established to support the development and implementation of financial risk management products that can help unlock capital for climate investments and improve resilience; andthe Urban Climate Change Resilience Trust Fund, which is aimed at supporting fast-growing cities in Asia in reducing the risks to poor and vulnerable people from floods, storms, or droughts, by making them better able to plan and design infrastructure projects to cushion the impact.ADB*s Southeast Asia Department Innovative Finance hub and the ADB-managed ASEAN Catalytic Green Finance Facility are helping DMCs to incorporate green finance approaches and mechanisms into their recovery strategies including through the preparation of country-specific green finance recovery proposals, knowledge events on green capital markets and green recovery planning, and knowledge products including the upcoming publication Green Finance Strategies for Post COVID-19 Economic Recovery in Southeast Asia,ADB is also exploring opportunities to provide explicit support to its DMCs in integrating climate and disaster resilience and low-carbon development considerations into the COVID-19 recovery through technical assistance, help in planning institutional and policy reforms and setting these in motion, as well as the integration of these considerations into country partnership strategies.Global estimates show that while $1 million spending in fossil fuels would create 2.7 full-time equivalent jobs, that same spending would create 7.5 full-time equivalent jobs in renewable energy and 7.7 full-time equivalent jobs in energy efficiency.8 Thus each $1 million shifted from fossilfuels to clean energy would create a net increase of five jobs. Additionally, nature-based solution investments typically create an estimated 39.7 full-time equivalent jobs per $1 million invested, or over 10 times the job creation rate of investments in fossil fuels?, H. Garrett-Peltier. 2017. Green versus brown: Comparing the employment impacts of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and fossil fuels using an input-output model. Economic Modelling. 61. pp. 439-447.b P Edwards, A.E. Sutton-Grier and G.E. Coyle. 2013. Investing in nature: Restoring coastal habitat blue infrastructure and green job creation. .Vhrrrte PMcy.38，何»静71.Countries have an unprecedented opportunity to use the required state interventions and accompanying stimulus to support a sustainable, inclusive, and resilient future; tackle the climate crisis; and lay the foundation for long-term prosperity. Governments can recalibrate their priorities in the context of changing perceptions of risks, including climate and disaster risk, and improve systems, raise standards, and pursue innovative solutions. With a clear vision, countries can use the recovery to drive investments and behavioral changes that will reorient their economies toward a more strategic low- carbon trajectory, while simultaneously addressing underlying vulnerabilities and strengthening resilience. Adopting a low-carbon and resilient recovery can generate economic benefits, create employment, increase food and energy security, and have strong health co-benefits.Beyond the emergency COVID-19 response, countries need to plan for the medium-term recovery phase, including economic stimulus measures, and possibly wider accompanying reforms; and a longer-term transfo