机场地块项目可行性研究报告书.doc

HZ机场原导航台地块项目 可行性研究报告西部机场集团置业（XA）有限公司二一一年十月目 录摘要································································Abstract···························································第1章 绪论······················································11.1 可行性研究在国内外研究情况分析································11.1.1 可行性研究在国外的研究情况分析································11.1.2 可行性研究在国内的研究情况分析································31.3 本文研究的主要内容································51.4 本文研究的主要方法································5第2章 房地产开发项目可行性研究概述································62.1 房地产开发项目概述··············································62.1.1 房地产含义················································62.1.2 房地产开发含义················································62.2 可行性研究概述················································72.2.1 可行性研究的概念································72.2.2 房地产项目可行性研究的阶段划分································72.2.3 房地产开发项目可研的目的和作用································9第3章 项目背景及项目区域市场调查分析······························63.1项目概况························································63.1.1 项目地块位置及面积············································63.1.2地块形状、现状及地貌特征········································63.1.3项目的主要技术经济指标·········································63.2项目背景·························································63.21房地产市场的发展状况···········································63.2.2长春市房地产市场走势分析·······································73.2.2.1房地产投资状况分析············································93.2.2.2商品房供应能力分析···········································103.2.2.3商品房市场需求分析··········································113.2.2.4商品房价格走势分析·········································113.3项目区域内市场供给状况···········································113.4商业市场分析···················································11第4 项目分析与项目的市场定位····································124.1项目周边概况···················································124.1.1项目周围的自然环境···········································124.1.2项目周围的交通条件···········································124.1.3项目周边的配套设施···········································124.1.3居住环境的综合评价···········································134.1.4居住环境的综合评价············································134.2项目优劣势分析(SWOT分析法)·····································284.2.1项目优势分析·················································134.2.2项目劣势分析·················································134.2.3项目机会分析·················································144.2.4项目潜在威胁分析·············································144.3项目的市场定位·················································144.3.1客群定位·······················································144.3.2产品定位······················································144.3.2.1住宅产品定位···············································154.3.2.2商业定位···················································31第5章 项目的规划设计及建设方案······························185.1开发规模策划······················································5.1.1规划构思························································5.1.2总体布局························································5.2工程实施方案策划··················································5.2.1建设方式························································5.2.2开发方案设想与分析··············································5.2.3建设进度························································5.2.4建设标准························································第6章项目的经济效益评价6.1评价依据··················································6.2技术经济指标··················································6.3项目总投资估算··················································6.4项目资金筹措··················································6.5项目投资计划··················································6.6销售收入的测定··················································6.6.1销售价格的确定··················································6.6.2销售收入的测定··················································6.7项目经济效益分析··················································6.7.1盈利能力··················································6.7.2内部收益率··················································6.7.3财务净现值··················································6.7.4动态投资回收期··········································第7章项目风险分析················································7.1房地产投资风险的特点··········································7.2房地产投资风险的类型··············································7.3房地产投资风险的分析方法··········································7.4项目风险分析······················································7.4.1盈亏平衡分析····················································7.4.2敏感性分析······················································第8章可行性研究结论··················································参考文献··························································60后记·······························································6210第一章 总论11 项目建设单位：西部机场集团置业（XA）有限公司12项目背景1.2.1项目名称：HZ机场原导航台地块项目 1.2.2 建设地点：HZ市汉台区西环路西侧1.2.3 用地面积： 8863.79平方米（13.29亩）；1.2.4 建设规模：29238平方米；13可行性研究报告编制依据l 房地产开发项目经济评价办法；l 可行性研究指南；l 项目有关资料；l 企业有关资料第二章 市场分析与项目定位2.1HZ市房地产发展形势分析HZ素有“西北小江南” 的美誉，水资源是HZ的天然之宝，也是HZ楼市区别与其他城市的最主要特征。借助优势，房地产市场呈现出强劲的开发势头，目前目前中心城区多层住宅销售均价约2900元，高层住宅销售均价3500元，沿江项目均价4300元/左右，在售项目20余个。综观HZ，因城市骨架不大，还没有形成大的城市发展蓝图。同时受地区产业经济发展、企业实力、当地的供求关系影响，HZ目前还缺少能开发带动区域板块项目的大型企业，但是，沿汉江两岸的板块格局已见雏形。一江两岸的长远规划、天汉大道的贯通，HZ的城市骨架在逐步拉开，规划也更加合理，打造陕西唯一一个以水文化为特色的居住城市势在必然，可以吸引部分或大量的外地置业者在此购房置业，凸显城市适宜居住的独特性。2.2区域房地产市场分析目前HZ市政府邀请城市发展战略策划大师王志纲赴汉进行城市战略策划，主要策划区域为滨江西区，该片区主要有原西关机场搬迁形成，是目前HZ市政府重点发展的区域。根据调研了解，目前城西区所售商品房周边学校、医疗比较完善；区域竞争项目户型以HZ市整体房地产发展情况保持一致，主要表现为小型化趋势。2.2.1 2010年HZ市整体商品房销售状况2010年全市房地产开发累计施工面积239.11万平方米，同比增长11%；完成投资23.76亿元，同比增长30%；商品房新开工面积84.78万平方米，同比增加28%；预销售面积129.2万平方米，同比增长31%；商品房供应量 2010年HZ市批准商品房预售项目54个，同比增长74.2%。新增商品房面积106.1万平方米，同比增长103.65%（其中，新增经济适用房面积30.39万平方米，同比增长178.55%）。商品房成交量2010年HZ市商品房签约成交面积93.957万平方米，同比增长98.7%，；成交8993套，同比增长130.53%。2.2.2 各物业价格表现2010年，HZ市商品住房平均价格为2813元/平方米，同比上涨 17.69%。 其中，多层商品住房平均价格为3000元/平方米；高层商品住房平均价格为3600元/平方米。 商业、办公用房等非住宅平均价格为9537元/平方米，同比略有上涨。2.3项目定位及销售价格预测2.3.1目标客户群定位分析1）各区域客源比例预估：HZ机场以及HZ市区80%、周边郊县20%；2）年龄层区分预估：30-45岁65%、其他35%；3）购买目的预估：纯自用85%、纯投资5%、自住兼投资10%。2.3.2本项目销售价格预测根据2010年5月份调研HZ市各物业房产在售价总水平来看，本项目地处HZ市滨江新区核心区域，这里将是HZ城建史上规模最大、投资最多、标准最高、功能配套、设施最为完善的综合性城市新区。依据现阶段在售项目价格作为定价依据，预计项目销售均价在每平方米5000元左右。（住宅与商业整体均价预计）2.4市场分析结论随着HZ城市的不断发展，HZ后续发展楼盘集中在城市新区，这必将带来大量的土地供应，相应的楼盘规模化会逐渐增多，规模竞争逐渐激烈。住宅市场需求旺盛，市场发展前景光明，因此，本项目市场开发有较好的外部环境。价格明显表现为增长趋势；主要的原因表现为两个：一是小高层、高层将逐渐替代多层成为开发的主流产品，二是品质提升形成的价格转移，三是通货膨胀预期以及到来带来的价格提升。第三章 项目建设地址及环境3.1项目地址项目地块位于HZ市西一环路以西，二炮家属院以东，新兴街以南50米，民主街以北100米。3.2地块概况 该项目净用地13.2亩（8863.79），项目用地通土地过招拍挂的方式获得，用地性质为住宅，地势平坦，使用年限70年，现阶段正在准备土地变性的前期工作，待土地规划报批结束后，可随时动工。3.3 环境分析项目位于HZ市滨江新区整体规划范围之内,该地块规划为二类住宅用地，该项目与仁和春天南北相邻，西侧为二炮家属院，周边交通便利，配套较为齐全，生活氛围浓厚。第四章 项目建设方案4.1项目总体规划4.1.1主要指标用地面积：8863.79平方米 建筑面积：建筑面积29238平方米。容积率：3.3 绿化率：不小于35%4.1.2 建设内容项目定位为高档绿色住宅社区。在设计上体现以生态、环保、健康、文化为主题，合理布置建筑，体现以人为本，保证业主优越的居住环境和生活质量。该项目各类建筑详细情况见下表。 项目建设内容一览表建筑物类别栋数（位）建筑面积住宅11层229238住宅18层1合计292384.2规划设计理念本项目将建设适应时代要求的生活社区，力求在总体空间布局、室内外环境、低密度住宅类型、区域配套设施上有一定的超前性与创新性，推出具有精品意识的高尚生活区。主要从建筑形态、景观环境和社区服务三方面体现项目的设计理念，三幢住宅楼都是南北通透，采光充足，小高层、高层住宅景观良好。设备配置先进，单元都配有品牌高速电梯，上下快捷方便，电梯门厅及轿厢内都采用精装修，并配用紧急对讲设备和数码探头。每个单元一楼均设有入户大堂。确立了相对高端的项目定位，首先在结构设计上力求科学严谨，确保主体结构安全可靠；其次在材质选择上，选用品质较高的建筑材料，保证建筑物良好的内在品质。4.3建筑风格按照住宅设计规范的要求，建筑风格设计中充分体现以人为本的设计理念，以创造合理、舒适、高品位为目的，为住户设计理想的居住建筑，外立面新颖、个性、实用为目的，建筑单体融合于优美、恬静的环境中。4.4园林绿化项目园林设计将在有限的土地空间利用上突出创新，融入绿色建筑的设计理念和当今建筑科技，开发出具有市场竞争力、符合当地人文环境的建筑产品，并做到节能、环保，将建筑与自然景观水乳交融，创造出环保、健康的生活空间。4.5总平面布置图第五章 项目实施进度 本项目建设期为（36）个月，销售期24个月，项目计算期按（ 36 ）个月计算。l 工程期：（2012/042015/03）项目总建筑面积29800平方米。l 销售期：（2012/06-2014/06）项目实施进度计划见下表：项目实施进度计划表项目名称2012年2013年2014年2015年二季度三季度四季度一季度二季度三季度四季度一季度二季度三季度四季度一季度二季度工程期销售期第六章 投资估算及资金来源6.1投资估算范围本次可行性研究的对象为“HZ机场原导航台”项目。投资估算的范围为本次项目的开发建设投资，包括：土地费用、前期工程费用、基础设施建设费用、建筑安装工程费用、公共设施配套建设费用、开发间接费用、财务费用、管理费用、销售费用、开发期税费、其它费用以及不可预见费用等。6.2投资估算经估算，本项目总投资为12448.33万元，各单项投资见下表。HZ机场原导航台项目成本分析序号名称建筑面积（m2）单方造价 （元/m2）总投资(万元)备注一土地费用29238583.091704.85二前期费用29238139.13406.78三勘探、设计费2923842.5124.26四建管费2923841.3120.75五建安工程费2923822726642.87六其它费用292381179.573448.81七总投资 292384257.5912448.33第七章 财务评价7.1 销售收入估算根据项目进度计划，销售收入按三年计算，销售收入见下表。表71 销售收入估算表项目销售收入（万元）建筑面积29238平米2012年3575.75销售价格5065元/2013年7151.5销售收入14303万元2014年3575.757.2盈利能力分析（财务评价报表及指标）根据前面基础数据计算项目损益表、全部投资项目现金流量表，从而计算出有关项目的财务指标，详见下面报表。表72 项目损益表 万元序号项 目 名 称合计2012年2013年2014年2015年备注1销售收入14303 3575.757151.5 3575.752开发建设成本11839.21 4143.722959.802367.842367.843期间费用176.1544.0444.0444.0444.034经营税金及附加786.67196.67393.33196.675利润总额1500.97-808.683754.33967.2-2411.876各年累计利润总额1500.97-808.682945.653912.851500.977所得税375.24000375.2425%税率8净利润1125.73-808.683754.33967.2-2787.11表73 全部投资现金流量表 万元序号项 目合 计2012年2013年2014年2015年1现金流入14303 3575.757151.5 3575.751.1销售收入14303 3575.757151.5 3575.751.2回收经营资金0 2现金流出13177.274384.433397.172608.552787.112.1开发建设投资11839.21 4143.722959.802367.842367.842.2期间费用（不含财务费用）176.1544.0444.0444.0444.032.3经营资金0 2.4经营税金及附加786.67196.67393.33196.672.5所得税375.24000375.243净现金流量1125.73-808.683754.33967.2-2787.114累计净现金流量1125.73-808.682945.653912.851125.735财务指标5.1投资利润率：15.99%5.2投资净利润率：10.5%5.3销售净利润率：8%第八章 结论近年来，我国国民经济保持快速增长之势，宏观经济发展形势向好，房地产业已成为我国经济发展的支柱行业，房地产市场保持供需两旺的局面。HZ“以打造最佳人居环境为目标，加快房地产业的发展，培育房地产消费热点。规范一级市场，激活二级市场，发展和规范物业管理、装饰装修等住宅服务业，促进传统的住宅管理向社会化、专业化、市场化的物业管理方式转变。“十一五”期间，房地产投资达到60亿元左右，社会化物业管理覆盖面达到80%。通过对项目财务分析可知，虽利润率较低，但是该项目为置业公司第一处异地开发项目，通过该项目的运作，可为公司积累跨区域项目开发经验、提高团队项目运作水平，同时又可改善HZ机场员工住宿条件，并且具有一定程度的盈利能力和贷款偿还能力，经营风险较小，项目具有可行性。