11_diffusionofinnovations创新的扩散.pptx

11.创新的扩散创新的扩散Diffusion of innovations11.1 创新的扩散研究11.2创新的特征11.3创新者的特征11.4环境 思考：思考：l是什么因素促使你使用互联网？请列举。思考：思考：l你是否通过网上购物？l如果是，请列举促使你使用网络购物的原因l如果不是，请列举不通过网上购物的原因11.1创新的扩散研究创新的扩散研究l创新扩散模型是对创新采用的各类人群进行研究归类的一种模型l理论思想：在创新面前，部分人会比另一部分人思想更开放，更愿意采纳创新l 这个模型也被称之为 创新扩散理论（Diffusion of Innovations Theory），或多步创新流动理论（Multi-Step Flow Theory）创新采用曲线（Innovation Adoption Curve）创新的扩散创新的扩散l“创新扩散理论”是美国学者埃弗雷特 罗杰斯（E.M.Rogers）提出的l埃弗雷特罗杰斯认为创新是：“一种被个人或其他采纳单位视为新颖的观念、时间或事物。”l思考：哪些东西可称作创新？创新的扩散创新的扩散l一项创新应具备l相对的便利性l兼容性l复杂性l可靠性l可感知性l另一美国学者罗杰 菲德勒则认为创新还应当包括“熟悉”这一要素创新的扩散创新的扩散l罗杰斯把创新的采用者分为l革新者l早期采用者l早期追随者l晚期追随者l落后者 创新扩散包括五个阶段创新扩散包括五个阶段l了解阶段：接触新技术新事物，但知之甚少。l兴趣阶段：发生兴趣，并寻求更多的信息。l评估阶段：联系自身需求，考虑是否采纳。l试验阶段：观察是否适合自己的情况。l采纳阶段：决定在大范围内实施。创新扩散创新扩散l创新扩散被定义为以一定的方式随时间在社会系统的各种成员间进行传播的过程l扩散过程就由l创新l传播渠道l时间l社会系统四个要素组成l由此可见，传播渠道成为其中一个重要的环节。创新扩散创新扩散l创新扩散的传播过程可以用一条“S”形曲线来描述l在扩散的早期，采用者很少，进展速度也很慢l当采用者人数扩大到居民的10%25%时，进展突然加快，曲线迅速上升并保持这一趋势，即所谓的“起飞期“l在接近饱和点时，进展又会减缓。整个过程类似于一条“S”形的曲线创新扩散创新扩散l在创新扩散过程中，早期采用者为后来的起飞作了必要的准备。这个看似“势单力薄”的群体能够在人际传播中发挥很大的作用，劝说他人接受创新（马云的例子）创新扩散创新扩散l在罗杰斯看来，早期采用者就是愿意率先接受和使用创新事物并甘愿为之冒风险那部分人l这些人不仅对创新初期的种种不足有着较强的忍耐力，还能够对自身所处各群体的意见领袖展开“游说“，使之接受以至采用创新产品l之后，创新又通过意见领袖们迅速向外扩散。这样，创新距其“起飞期“的来临已然不远创新扩散创新扩散l罗杰斯指出，创新事物在一个社会系统中要能继续扩散下去，首先必须有一定数量的人采纳这种创新物l通常，这个数量是人口的10-20%l创新扩散比例一旦达到临界数量，扩散过程就起飞，进入快速扩散阶段l饱和点（saturated point）的概念是指创新在社会系统中一般不总能100扩散 创新扩散创新扩散l事实上，很多创新在社会系统中最终只能扩散到某个百分比。当系统中的创新采纳者再也没有增加时，系统中的创新采纳者数量（绝对数量表示）或创新采纳者比例（相对数量表示），就是该创新扩散的饱和点。创新扩散创新扩散l罗杰斯认为，创新扩散总是借助一定的社会网络进行的，在创新向社会推广和扩散的过程中，信息技术能够有效地提供相关的知识和信息，但在说服人们接受和使用创新方面，人际交流则显得更为直接、有效 创新扩散创新扩散l因此，创新推广的最佳途径是将信息技术和人际传播结合起来加以应用 l思考：如果面试时你要帮一家公司，例如佛山移动公司设计动感地带推广方案，你如何设计？（理论的功能）创新扩散创新扩散l创新扩散理论是多级传播模式在创新领域的具体运用l在创新向社会推广和扩散的过程中，大众传播能够有效地提供相关的知识和信息，而在说服人们接受和使用创新方面，人际传播则显得更为直接、有效l因此，罗杰斯认为，推广创新的最佳途径是“双管齐下“将大众传播和人际传播结合起来加以应用创新扩散创新扩散l“S”形曲线理论在市场营销、广告推广、产品代谢以及媒介生命周期的研究方面都得到了承认，有着广阔的应用前景。Rogers创新采用曲线创新扩散研创新采用曲线创新扩散研究的五个焦点究的五个焦点 l对创新成果采用与否有重要影响的创新活动自身的特征l人们在考虑一个新主意、一件新产品或一项新项目时所采取的决策过程l采用创新人群的一些个人特征l个人或社会采用创新的后果和影响l采用创新过程中的沟通渠道创新采用曲线类别创新采用曲线类别 l创新者（Innovators）他们是勇敢的先行者，自觉推动创新。创新者在创新交流过程中，发挥着非常重要的作用。l早期采用者（Early Adopters）他们是受人尊敬的社会人士，是公众意见领袖，他们乐意引领时尚、尝试新鲜事物，但行为谨慎。l早期采用人群（Early Majority）他们是有思想的一群人，也比较谨慎，但他们较之普通人群更愿意、更早地接受变革。创新采用曲线类别创新采用曲线类别l后期采用人群（Late Majority）他们是持怀疑态度的一群人，只有当社会大众普遍接受了新鲜事物的时候，他们才会采用。l迟缓者（Laggards）他们是保守传统的一群人，习惯于因循守旧，对新鲜事物吹毛求疵，只有当新的发展成为主流、成为传统时，他们才会被动接受创新采用曲线的运用创新采用曲线的运用 lRogers的创新采用曲线说明，试图快速印证、广泛采用全新的、争议中的创新主意，是不现实的l 促进创新采用的最好的方法是，首先说服创新者与早期采用者l在沟通过程中，还可以结合创新类别与采用百分比，更为准确地估计目标群体 11.1创新的扩散研究创新的扩散研究lBarbara Wejnert(2002):Integrating models of diffusion of innovations:A Conceptual Framework,Annual Review of Sociology,28:297326扩散的定义扩散的定义lWhat is a diffusion?“Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system.”-Everett Rogers(1995)Diffusion of Innovation,4th ed.创新的扩散创新的扩散lDiffusion of innovations refers to the spread of labstract ideas and concepts（例如民主的扩散、西学东渐、马克思主义引入中国）ltechnical information（互联网、短信）lactual practices（买“码”）lThe spread denotes the flow or movement from a source to an adopter,typically via communication and influence(Rogers 1995)创新的采纳者创新的采纳者lCommunication and influence alter an adopters probability of adopting an innovationlAn actor may be any societal entity,includingl lIndividualsIndividualsl lGroupsGroupsl lOrganizationsOrganizationsl lNational politiesNational polities创新的扩散：研究的意义创新的扩散：研究的意义lStudies of diffusionlAn empirical and quantitative basis for developing more rigorous approaches to theories of social theories of social changechange(e.g.,new conceptual and mathematical explanations of social change)(DeFleur 1966)lOften used in assessments of world economic and political developments创新的扩散研究特征创新的扩散研究特征l跨学科的特征lSociologylEconomicslPolitical sciencelCommunication过往关于创新扩散的研究过往关于创新扩散的研究l lIowa 农民使用杂交玉米（hybrid-corn use among Iowa farmers）（Ryan&Gross，1943），之后4000多篇论文发表l l农业实践（agricultural practices）(Fliegel 1993,Griliches 1957)l l技术(technologies)(Burt 1987,Coleman et al.1966,Palmer et al.1993)过往关于创新扩散的研究过往关于创新扩散的研究l l节育方式(fertility-control methods)(Rogers&cKincaid 1981,Rosero-Bixby&Casterline 1994)l l政策创新(policy innovations)(Berry&cBerry 1992,Boli-Bennett&Ramirez 1987,Valente 1995)l l政治改革(political reforms)(Meyer 1987,Starr 1991)影响扩散的变量影响扩散的变量lCharacteristics of innovationslCharacteristics of innovatorslEnvironmental context11.2 创新的特征创新的特征 characteristics of the innovation lCharacteristics of innovationslpublic versus private consequenceslbenefits versus costs创新的特征之一：公众后果 vs.私人后果lPrivate vs.public consequences refer to the impact of an innovations adoption on lentities other than the actorother than the actor(public consequences）versus that l lthe actor itselfthe actor itself(private consequences)公众后果公众后果lInnovations that result in public consequences involve collective actorscountries,states within countries,and organizations and social movementsmostly concerned with issues of societal well-beinglAmong such innovations are lPolitical models of democracy(Uhlin 1995,Wejnert 2001)lWelfare and education policies(Thomas&Lauderdale 1987,Boli-Bennett&Meyer 1978)lState laws(Berry&Berry 1990,1992)私人后果私人后果lInnovations with private consequences affect the well-being of adopters that are eitherlIndividualslsmall collective entities such as organizations,peer groups,and rural communities.lThese innovations are intended to improve the quality of individual lives or to reform organizational and social structures创新过程的决定因素创新过程的决定因素l创新来源（the source of an innovation）与采纳者（adopter）之间的互动机制（mechanisms of interaction）决定创新过程Innovations with public consequences：采纳的因素：采纳的因素 IlThe information and imitative models are uniformly distributed around the worldlThe norms,values,or expectations about certain forms or practices become deeply ingrained in societyinstitutionalizedand reflect widespread and shared understandings of social reality(Meyer&Rowan 1977:343)例如：lrapid spread of mass educationlsocial security systemslmodels of nation-states among the worlds political statesInnovations with public consequences：采纳的因素：采纳的因素 IIlMedia becomes a channel of influence on adoption primarily when the innovations are popular,well-defined societal issues民主模式的扩散民主模式的扩散Adoption of democracy modelThe institutionalization of democracy Media Country to-country interaction带来私人后果的创新的扩散带来私人后果的创新的扩散lThe spatial and temporal contiguity（接近）between a source of a new practice and a potential adopter带来私人后果的创新的扩散带来私人后果的创新的扩散Adoption of an innovation with private consequencesThe pressure of social networksThe pressure of social networksSpatial effectsSpatial effects geographic proximity interpersonal communication institutional or individual coercion创新的特征之二：创新的特征之二：Benefits vs.costsl lCostCost：monetary and nonmonetary direct and indirect costs,or risks associated with the adoption of an innovationl lDirect costsDirect costs,or financial uncertaintyfinancial uncertainty：patents of industrial innovation,new agricultural seeds,fertilizers or equipment,computer-operated machines,satellite antennas,or reform of social policiesl lI Indirect costsndirect costs,or technical uncertaintytechnical uncertainty：time spent on retraining a labor force to use an innovation;social cost such as innovation-induced social conflict（例如计划生育在农村社会的冲突）11.3 Characteristics of InnovatorslCharacteristics of innovatorslsocietal entitylfamiliarity with the innovationlstatus characteristicslsocioeconomic characteristicslposition in social networkslpersonal characteristics创新者特征之一：Societal entity of innovatorsl创新者的划分lLarge collective actorslSmall collective actorslIndividual actorsl创新者的影响变量lthe type of innovation innovation selected for adoptionlthe nature of interactions interactions between the source of an innovation and an adopterlthe importance of strong vs.weak social tiessocial ties in adoptionlthe macro vs.micro character of adoption outcomesadoption outcomesAdoptions by large collective actorsl创新的类型：大规模的历史变革leducational modelslwelfare policieslland reform modelsldemocracy modelslpatent lawslstate policySmall collective actorslSmall collective actors包括：lfirm networkslOrganizationslgroups of friendsl采纳的创新lmultinational enterprise(MNE)strategy by mature motor vehicle industrieslthe style of management of newly merged industrial unitslstrategies of violence adopted by youth gang members Individual actorsl成员是否采纳创新很大程度上取决于l linteractions through strong tiesinteractions through strong ties,such as the community ties and face-to-face interactions l lthe network connectednessthe network connectedness that facilitates interpersonal interactionsl lcompatibilitycompatibility between the characteristics of an innovation and the needs of an actor创新者特征之二：创新者特征之二：Familiarity with the innovationlthe rate of adoption of an innovationall other factors being equalincreases as its novelty decreases(Greve 1998)l提高创新熟悉度的方法lmedia informationlthe opinion of expertslobserving the outcomes of other actorslinformation obtained from close peers located in social and organizational networks创新者特征之三：Status characteristicslCollective actors with high status usually adopt an innovation first and then impose adoption of the innovation on lower status actorslLow economic status of third world countries dramatically slowed the worldwide diffusion of modern agricultural practiceslHigh-status collective actors can also affect individual adoptions:例如发展中国家，政府对那些采用新的农业技术的农民提供补贴创新者特征之三：Status characteristicslThe predictive power of an individual actors status on adoption of an innovation varies positively with the prominence of the actors position in a networklWeimann&Brosius(1994)argued that an actors status characteristics interact with media effects because media mainly affect high-status members who identify innovations and then spread them within a group of lower-status members创新者特征之四：创新者特征之四：socioeconomic characteristicslTwo categories of socioeconomic variableslEconomiclSociodemographiclIndividual actor variableslEducation levellEconomic well-beinglCosmopolitanism 创新者特征之四：创新者特征之四：socioeconomic characteristicslVariables of collective actorslDegree of technological advancementlGNPlLevel of development(developed vs.developing countries)lFinancial resourceslCentrally planned versus market economieslPolitical systemlLabor market practice创新者特征之五：创新者特征之五：position in social networksl(a)interpersonal networks for individual actorsl(b)organizational networks for collective actorsl(c)structural equivalence of individual and collective actorsl(d)social density(a)Interpersonal networks for individual actorsl lDirect interactionsDirect interactions between individuals significantly accounted for adoption adoption of a variety of innovationslAdoption by some actors has a cumulative effecta cumulative effect on the adoption decisions of other actors in the social networklAdoption is better accounted for as a network based a network based decisiondecision,where exposure to an innovation through a network of peers has a cumulatively increasing influence on adoption as pressure toward conformitypressure toward conformity builds and as risks perceived by potential adoptersrisks perceived by potential adopters decrease(b)Organizational networks for collective actorslSwan&Newell(1995)argued that the network of professional organizations was the single most influential variable in determining the adoption of new technology by firmslChaves(1996)indicated that the existence of religious networks almost doubled the probability of adoption of the practice of ordination of women组织网络如何影响采纳组织网络如何影响采纳l lInformativeInformative，by which members learn of the newest industrial developmentsl lConduciveConducive,facilitating contact with former adoptersl lEducationalEducational,providing professional advising on new developmentsl lCoerciveCoercive,using explicit or implicit rewards or negative contingencies to produce conformity and compliance with respect to adoptive behaviorl lModelingModeling,providing standard,uniform models of correct decisions(c)Structural equivalence of individual and collective actorslStructural equivalence of members in a network 是指 an actors perception of concordance with other members in a social and/or organizational network,particularly of comparable economic and social statusl这一因素 modulates adoption of innovations because it affects homogeneity of adopters behaviors个人的结构对等决定因素个人的结构对等决定因素lFor individuals,structural equivalence is determined byl(a)demographic factors such as sex,age,race,ethnicity,marital status,and educationl(b)social indicators like education and occupationl(c)culture,such as similarity of language,cultural tradition,religion,self-identity,values,and norms集体的结构对等决定因素集体的结构对等决定因素l(a)economic factorslevel of wealth or economic system l(b)cultural factors such as historical backgroundl(c)behavioral factors,e.g.,similarities of action or strategy 结构对等在创新采纳上的解释力结构对等在创新采纳上的解释力lAbbott&DeViney(1992)demonstrated that the structural equivalence between states contributed more than twice as much as all other selected variables to the predictability of adoption of welfare policylStructural equivalence may facilitate adoption by activating actor competition(d)Social density（社会浓度（社会浓度/密度）密度）lSocial density refers to the density of existing adoptions within an organization,where the greater the density of adoptersthe density of adopters,the less the perceived riskperceived risk of adopting by non-adopterslHowever,as Hannan&Freeman(1987)argued,the cumulative number of adoptions within an organization,or within a unit of an organization,promotes new adoptions up to a critical pointa critical point of exhaustion of resources,after which the adoption rate decreases(Hannan&Freeman 1987)创新者特征之六：创新者特征之六：personal characteristicsl心理强势：psychological strengthlPsychologically strong actors select the most important innovations from the abundance of information covered by the media,rapidly adopt those innovations,and using their own social networks,create a public agenda that significantly promotes adoptionl个人特征的影响因素：社会文化/例如美国文化与日本文化的差异11.4 环境情境环境情境 Environmental contextl(a)geographic settingsl(b)societal culturel(c)political conditionsl(d)globalization and uniformity(a)geographic settings地理因地理因素素lGeographical settings affect adoption by influencing the applicabilitythe applicability of the innovation to the ecological to the ecological infrastructures of the potential adopterinfrastructures of the potential adopterlClimatelWeatherlsoil conditionsl and by exerting spatial effects of geographical exerting spatial effects of geographical proximityproximity：an automatic spread of innovations between individual actors who are in close geographical contiguity,such as within rural or urban communities or counties located within the same geographical regionb)societal culture社会文化社会文化l信仰体系Belief systems(values,norms,language,religion,ideologies)(innovations conflicting with cultural norms are adopted only by a relatively small percentage of individual actors who are potential adopters)l文化传统主义 cultural traditionalism(social inertia in adopting new practices and