全球金融危机对2008年秋交会的影响及应对策略学位论文.doc

AbstractChina Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair), establishing in the spring of 1957 in Guangzhou, has a history of more than 50 years. The Canton Fair is a comprehensive international trade event for the longest history, the highest level, the largest scale, the most complete exhibit variety, the biggest buyer attendance, the broadest buyer distribution, the greatest business turnover, and the best credit standing in China.In 2008, the global financial crisis, which was formed by subprime mortgage crisis resulting from housing market bubble of the United States, sweeps across all over the world like a tornado. Whats more, the crisis spread quickly from USA and Europe to the whole world and has a trend of sharpening more. As a result, a global economic slowdown and profits downturn cannot be avoided definitely because of the expanding. On the other hand, not only occident countries and districts but also China (the so called “global economy safe harbor”) has not escaped from the crisis narrowly and luckily, so does the Canton Fair.In this thesis, the author will try to reason the impact of global financial crisis on the 104th session China Import and Export Fair analyze the root cause of the crisis and the global responses, resulting to the turndown of visitors, turnover, buyers and so on. In the end, the author will try to purify some effective useful arrangements to reduce impact.Key words: financial crisis; impact; Canton Fair; arrangements中文摘要中国进出口商品交易会，俗称广交会，创办于1957年春季，每年春秋两季在广州举办，迄今已有五十余年历史，是中国目前历史最长、层次最高、规模最大、商品种类最全、到会客商最多、成交效果最好的综合性国际贸易盛会。 2008年，由美国房地产市场泡沫破裂造成的美国次贷危机引发的金融风暴席卷全球经济，从美国、欧洲逐渐向全球蔓延，并且有进一步加深的趋势，由此引发的全球经济增长放缓和盈利滑坡将不可避免。此次危机不仅对欧美国家有影响，即使是素有“避风港”之称的中国亦不能幸免，而作为中国“出口风向标”的广交会也受到了影响。本文将尝试揭示金融危机对2008年秋交会的影响，浅析引发金融危机的根本原因及其对世界经济的影响，直接或间接导致广交会采购商、成交额和参展商数量等方面的下降，并尝试从中提炼出如何走出金融危机对广交会的影响可以借鉴的有效应对措施。 关键词：金融危机；影响；广交会；措施1. IntroductionThe world has experienced the worst economic crisis that started as a financial crisis from United States of America from July 2007 chronicling the credit crisis which resulted from the sub-prime mortgage crisis. The global financial crisis emerged in September 2008 with the failure, merger, or conservatorship of several large United States-based financial firms and spread with the insolvency of additional companies, governments in Europe, what s more, recession, and declining stock market prices has expanded too many other parts of the world. In our countrys speeding economy, the continuous development progress of China Import and Export (Canton Fair) is an important historical witness. It not only provides a broader market for businessmen all around the world gathering as well as a magnificent arena for myriads of outstanding enterprises, but also displays numerous competitive commodities from China to the world.The past of Canton Fair is worthy of being unfeignedly compliment, however, its more important that how to cope with the impact of global financial crisis so as to keep the national economy growing stably. 2. Literature Review2.1 The China Import and Export Fair The China Import and Export Fair (we also call it Canton Fair), comprehensive in nature, has won its renown of “Chinas No.1 Fair” for the longest history, the highest level, the largest scale, the most complete exhibit variety, the biggest buyer attendance, the broadest buyer distribution, the greatest business turnover, and the best credit standing in China.2.1.1 The Fundamental Introduction of Canton FairIn 1957, the days of founding of us new China, which has already done the socialism rehabilitation, the establishment of our socialist society building requires a lot of construction qualifications, on the other hand, the western countries are hostile to this baby China, almost every one of them took actions such as suppressing our economy, laying down strict laws to restrict our export commodities and so on to hamper Chinas developing progress. As a result, the China Export Fair emerged in response to the proper time and conditions; it is also one momentous measure of the new China opening-door policies.In the spring of 1957, the first session China export fair was open. However, the total transaction amount in this session was just $0.18 million, while only 1223 buyers from 19 countries and districts attending. But in the 4th session Canton Fair, the turnover raised to $1 million, the attendance from 31 countries and districts was twice as much as the first session. From then on, the political isolation aiming at China from western countries began to collapse in economy firstly. In 1963, the rectification movements of the national economy, the Canton Fair had another remarkable progress, for instance, a new exhibition hall covering an area of 47 thousand square meters was constructed, and 5961 buyers from 59 countries and districts attended the fair.The development of Canton Fair was tardy and flexural from year 1966 to 1977, though the ten-year transaction amount was $214.39 million, it had laid the foundation for our country economical further progressing. In the late 1970s, some policies relating with economical system and foreign trade regime had changed sharply because of implementation of reform and opening up policy. As time goes by, more and more enterprises from different trades signed up for the fair, as a result, the expansion of exhibitors range directly facilitated trading commodities configuration. In the Spring Canton Fair of 1978, 17 thousand exhibitors from 98 countries and districts were attracted. And it was the first time the attending number was more than ten thousand. Whats more, the exhibiting areas to the fair reached 129 and the visitors came to 45 thousand person-times.The incessant advancement of the reform and opening up policy, especially Deng Xiaoping made his Southern Tour and reinvigorated the reform process in 1992, China economic evolution and Canton Fair had been carried a step forward. The unceasing revolution and perfection of Market Socialism as well as the speedier, wider and deeper promotion of international communication and corporation advanced Canton Fair to its golden age. The export transaction amount hit a new high ($3.406 trillion) in the 100th session China Export Fair., which fully revealed the important position of us China in the economic exchanges and trade with other countries. Besides traditional way of negotiating against samples, the Fair holds Canton Fair online. The Fair leans to export trade, though import business is also done here. Apart from the above-mentioned, various types of business activities such as economic and technical cooperation and exchanges, commodity inspection, insurance, transportation, advertising, consultation, etc. are also carried out in flexible ways. Business people from all over the world are gathering in Guangzhou, exchanging business information and developing friendship.China Export Fair is always the barometer of China Aussenhandel. After years of rapid development, China, whose macro-economy is facing a deep-rooted structural adjustment, has formed an comprehensive, multi-fields and multi-level configuration. As the third largest global trading nation, China, in the progress of incessant expansion and deepening reform, expanding opening up, cannot highlight more on exporting growth or favorable trade balance, on the other hand, its suggested to optimize the mix of imports and exports, change the pattern of China's foreign trade growth and strive to reduce our excessively large trade surplus. As a result, on April 15, 2007, the 101st Canton Fair was renamed to China Import and Export Fair officially. However, the change of one word is a historic leap. In our countrys speeding economy, the continuous development progress of Canton Fair is an important historical witness. Its rename embodies the spirit of win-win strategy and is a symbolic of changing from valuing too much on exporting for earning foreign currency to seeking the balance of import and export in the orientation of our foreign trade strategy.Roughly speaking, as a microcosm of export trading, Canton Fair not only provides the Chinese commodities internationalization with an excellent display platform to help domestic enterprises incorporate the international competitive environment as soon as possible, but also play a leading role and obvious demonstration in the readjustment of industrial structure, the reform of foreign trade, the creation of domestic brand, transformation of the pattern of economic growth, etc. Every change of Canton Fair has reflected myriads of significant strategies and decisions of China economy in different periods as well as the exuberant vitality of Chinas participation in the economic globalization. 2.1.2 The 103 Session China Import and Export FairFacing challenges from accelerating appreciation of the RMB, inflation and increased labor and materials costs and even influences of the subprime loan crisis in the United States. The 103rd Canton Fair concluded successfully on Wednesday, April 30, 2008, as the number of overseas buyers and the overall turnover keep steady growth, said Xu Bing, deputy secretary general of the Canton Fair.The overall number of foreign buyers reaches 192,013, an increase of 1.3% over the same figure of the last fair.The number of traditional buyers, including those from the US, South Korea and Japan has seen a decline, while those from the new markets including the Muslim countries, India, South Africa and Brazil have seen tremendous growth, which makes up for the loss in the traditional market.The total turnover of the 103rd Canton Fair hits 38.23 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.1% over the last fair.2.2 Global Financial CrisisThe current world is going through a once-in-a-hundred-year financial crisis. The financial crisis which is also known as the financial turmoil, refers to all or most of the financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions (such as: short-term interest rates, currency assets, securities, real estate, land (prices), the number of business bankruptcy and financial institutions closed down ), a sharp, short-term and a super-cycle deterioration. Financial crisis can be divided into a currency crisis, debt crisis, banking crisis, and other types. In recent years, more and more financial crisis has shown a mixed form of crisis.Being considered as the center of the world economic development, USA now has become the source of the crisis and a region with increasing pessimism. As commented by Pierre Goad, “the downturn has been so deep and the currency depreciations so large in Asians crisis-struck economies that regaining the lost ground will take several years”. (G. Pierre Gaod: USA mulls scope of rebound from its economic turmoil, The America Wall Street Journal, October 19, 2008.) 2.2.1 Root Cause AnalysisHere we are yet again in the midst of another “global economic crisis.” The current financial crisis is formed by the housing market bubble of the United States. The loan-to-time crisis has finally broken the myth of Wall Street, after Bear Stearns was shot down, the nation's fourth-largest investment bank Lehman Brothers which has a long history of 158 years declared bankruptcy, now Lehman's reputation has fallen into current situation is absolutely meaningful in the post-war financial history. Because this is not an individual case, it is great outburst of the systemic risk. In some ways, this financial crisis is quite similar to the crisis outbreak after the World War II every 4 to 10 years.From the hilltops of Davos, Switzerland, Morgan Stanleys permabear Stephen Roach has shouted warnings of potential economic “Armageddon.” Superinvestor Gorge Soros designated the current state of the global economy “the worst market crisis in 60 years.” Bill Clinton labeled it “the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression” even as global stocks responded by slumping 7.7% in January，2008 the worst start to an investing year since Morgan Stanley began publishing data in the 1970s.The global financial crisis has dramatically changed perceptions about USA. Optimistic views about the country used to be overwhelming due to its success as a matter of course in the past and expecting bright future as the center of 21st century. But now, because of the crisis, it seems that pessimism is prevailing. Though the most obvious and acceptable reason for the crisis is formed by the housing market bubble of the United States, there seems no simple answer since the crisis is a long term accumulation of the problems existed and the result of not just one factor. Whats more, what we need to think is that why after along period of success did the country suddenly find itself in such bad situation. We may have to find the inherent problems from the economies in crisis on the one hand and also the outside factors that put on them on the other hand. Based on the point of most economists, the cause of our current economic crisis can be summed up in one word greed. And the most fundamental factors are agency problems, the mispricing of risk and the failure of securitization to distribute risks across the financial system. There is a long chain between the home buyer, the mortgage broker, and, ultimately, the sliced and died complex securities that nobody fully understands. Lets take one step in the chain. Over the years, banks or mortgage brokers, either ones, were happy to lend money to people who couldnt afford their mortgages. But they did it anyway because there was nothing to lose. These brokers were able to charge higher interest rates and make more money on sub-prime loans. They were required to meet certain guidelines as they do this, but so long as their income depends upon the number of mortgages passing through their hands and not hat happens to the mortgages later on so long as it is a fee-based system they have every incentive to push the guidelines as hard as they can and to find away around them whenever possible. If the borrowers default, they simply seized the house and put it back on the market. On top of that, they were able to pass the risk off to mortgage insurer or package these mortgages as mortgage-backed securities. Easy money!The whole thing was one big scheme. Everything was great when houses were selling like hot cakes and their values go up every month. Lenders made it easier to borrow money, and the higher demand drove up house values. Higher house values means that brokers could lend out even bigger mortgages, and it also gave lenders some protection against foreclosures. All of this translates into more money for the lenders, insurers, and investors.Finally, unfortunately, many borrowers got slammed when their adjustable mortgage finally adjusted. When too many of them couldnt afford to make their payments, it causes