2019-2023年娱乐及媒体行业展望（英文）.pdf
Perspectives from the Global Entertainment&Media Outlook 2019-2023Getting personal:Putting the mein entertainmentand mediapwcContentsIntroduction:Now its getting personal 02Personal space:Shifting behaviours reshape the E&M landscape 04Implications for businesses:One size does not fit all 06New touch points:Meeting consumers where they are 10Technology advances:The new era of personalised computing 136.Trust and regulation:Seeking personal data hygiene 16Conclusion:Taking it personally 18Methodology and definitions 20Use and permissions 21Contributors 22Global Entertainment&Media Outlook territory contacts 23Introduction:Now its getting personalHow do you consume entertainmentand media content?Ask 20 differentpeople,and youre likely to get 20different answers,even if some ofthose people live under the sameroof.One parent may watch the firstepisode of the final season of HBOsepic Game of Thrones on a 60-inchtelevision on Sunday night whenit first airs.The other parent mightstream it later in the evening onthe HBO Go app on an iPad.Theirteenager might watch it the next dayon his phone,while simultaneouslyplaying a video game.Theirdaughter,home from university,might download it,and then streamthe episode on her laptop four dayslater.In 2019,there is still such athing as appointment viewing ontelevision.But it is the viewer whomakes the appointment.Consumers are embracing the expanding opportunitiesto enjoy media experiences uniquely tailored to theirown personal preferences,contexts and schedules.Increasingly mobile and never idle,empowered consumersaround the world want to exert greater control overhow and when they experience media.They do so bymanaging their media consumption via smartphones andan expanding range of devices,by curating their personalselection of channels via over-the-top(OTT)services,andby bringing more digital media content into their lives viasmart homes and connected cars.This activity is driving steady growth.As PwCs GlobalEntertainment&Media Outlook 2019-2023 shows,industry spending will continue to rise at a rate fasterthan overall economic growth,at a projected 4.3%CAGRthrough 2023.Arising tideRevenues for the global entertainment and media(E&M)industry continue to rise steadily.Global E&M revenues Global E&M revenues(projected data)Source:PwC Global Entertainment&Media Outlook 2019-2023,Perspectives from the Global Entertainment&Media Outlook 2019-2023Inexorable digitisationWith each passing year,digital revenues account for a larger share of the E&M industry.Global digital revenues as%of total revenues Q Global digital revenues as%of total revenues(projected data)Source:PwC Global Entertainment&Media Outlook 2019-2023,central theme of this growing world of media is thatit*s personal and increasingly digital.And it is one that isconstructed by the individual for his or her own enjoymentand gratification,and delivered through personal devices.Companies,in turn,are tailoring their offerings andbusiness models to revolve around personal preferences,leveraging data and usage patterns to pitch their productsnot at audiences of billions,but at billions of individuals.The largest platforms cater to and anticipate userspersonal needs with Al-enabled,algorithm-driven playlistsand recommendations.Meanwhile,growing ranks of virtualassistants sit ready to listen to the demands and requestsof their owners-and to address them personally.Inresponse,marketers are racing to reach individuals atthe point of consumption.Ifs a world where everything converges on the consumerand the individual experience.But its also a world ofdivergence at both an individual and a global level.Personalisation is the opposite of standardisation,whichmeans everybodys experience with a particular song,film or game is unique.In the acclaimed Bandersnatchepisode of the TV series Black Mirror,viewers designedtheir own narrative paths through the story,leading to arange of conclusions.Understanding those differences whether someone is listening to your podcast whileexercising or commuting,for example is the key todeveloping better advertisements,a better user experienceand better business results.From a global perspective,given local and regional differences in income,norms,culture and infrastructure,the take-up and performanceof some entertainment and media(E&M)segmentsvary widely across different geographies.All of whichmeans companies that wish to position themselves for asuccessful future will have to focus intently on consumers,innovate and experiment continually and be prepared tomake significant investments.Although this individualised media world is steadilycoalescing around the consumer,the transformation isntyet complete.For example,PwCs research shows thatconsumers are still dissatisfied with the recommendationsfrom their streaming services.Real challenges surroundingthe treatment and ownership of personal information arespurring regulators around the world to catch up,and putpressure on companies to adapt to new privacy regimes.Finally,it is possible that issues relating to the safetyand privacy of personal data will limit the ability of E&Mcompanies to individualise the media experience goingforward.Trust remains at a premium.In this report,we delve into the E&M landscape through thelens of the Outlook.And the picture that emerges is clear:this time,ifs personal.03 Perspectives from the Global Entertainment&Media Outlook 2019-20232Personal space:Shifting behaviours reshape the E&M landscapeWe can see the shift to personalisedexperiences all around us in thefast-changing human behavioursinvolving E&M,To be sure,there are still plenty of commonexperiences.In 2018,spending ontickets at movie theatres was up5.2%from the year before,and it isprojected to rise at a 4.3%CAGRthrough 2023.According to FIFA,some 1.12bn people-one ofevery seven people on the planetwatched the tense World Cupfinal between Croatia and Francelive in the summer of 2018.Butincreasingly,the prevailing trend ofconsumption,especially in marketswhere broadband penetration ishigh,is for people to construct theirown media menus and to consumemedia at their own pace.Isolation or socialisation?What do E&M consumption behaviours look like?Onone level,todays consumption appears more isolated.People wearing the ubiquitous Apple AirPods-whetheron the street,on a train or in an elevator-seem to existin a hermetically sealed bubble.Movies can be watchedby an audience of one on a laptop or phone.On-demandstreaming allows viewers to start and stop politicaldebates,or the final episode of a popular series,when they choose.However,theres a dimension of personalisation thatis also inherently social.Many people use media as anenabler for social interaction,including sharing playlists onSpotify,contributing to Chinese danmu*barrage videos?by commenting on live television shows,and engaging inmulti-user battle royales with fellow gamers around theglobe.Others employ media as a substitute for socialinteraction,utilising technology and E&M to create their ownimmersive environments and worlds as a way to alleviateloneliness.The way teenagers have embraced battle royalegames like Fortnite can reflect either purpose or both.From passive to active consumption.Whatever role media experiences play for individuals,thedirection of travel is the same.Consumers are movingtowards the creation of a new type of personal spaceat the centre of their own carefully selected universe ofmedia choices and experiences,one which is continuallyinformed and shaped by Al and algorithms thatrecommend new content to them.Global OTT video revenues by category(US$bn)-Total over-the-top video revenuesSubscription video-on-demand revenuesTransactional video-on-demand revenuesSource:PwC Global Entertainment&Media Outlook 2019-2023,Perspectives from the Global Entertainment&Media Outlook 2019-2023At root,this is a shift in consumption behaviour thathas long been anticipated and is finally reaching reality.Advances in technology and service offerings are enablingpeople to move from passive to active consumption,fromlinear to on-demand and not just of individual pieces ofmedia,but of media as a whole.as OTT and smart speakers go from strengthto strength.There are many signs of this change.One is the trend forconsumers to reject the bundles of channels sold to themby cable or satellite companies and instead construct theirown ad hoc bundles made up of various OTT services-buying several complementary streaming offerings tocover the full gamut of their tastes and interests.Althoughit is still dwarfed by cable and satellite spending,globalOTT revenue hit US$38.2bn in 2018,and is forecast toalmost double by 2023.The great unbundling is happening worldwide.Disney*sOTT platform Disney+,slated to launch in November2019,will target mainstream audiences with a massivefamily-friendly content portfolio.In India,subscriptiontelevision service Tata Sky is now available on mobilephones,joining a rush of broadcasting houses and contentcreators in the country offering OTT services,includingnational powerhouse Balaji Media.In Japan,the US-basedOTT startup DAZN now controls the rights for Japanesefootball and baseball.All of these companies enableactive consumption by allowing people to curate their ownbundles and then stream content at their convenience.Further indications of the move to active individualisedconsumption can be seen in the rise of the smart homeand the connected car.In the next five years,the smartspeaker will consolidate its position as the central devicein the smart home;device ownership is set to rise at a38.1%CAGR to hit 440mn devices globally in 2023.Inearly 2019,Apple debuted its HomePod device in China,becoming the first of the large US-based smart speakercompanies to launch a product there and the only firmoffering a voice assistant in Mandarin.Although the USwas the largest market for smart speakers in 2018,it islikely to be overtaken by China in 2021,which will be hometo 156mn devices by the end of the Outlook forecastperiod in 2023.As they proliferate,smart speakers willbecome the conduit through which the burgeoningindustry of voice-related media podcasts,music,newsand ads will be pulled by individuals or pushed bycompanies to audiences of one.Global top three markets for smart speakers by numberof devices(mn)China-US-UKSource:PwC Global Entertainment&Media Outlook 2019-2023,input devices give way to voiceThe proliferation of this hardware will make voice oneof the new frontiers for competition.Media experiencesactivated by voice will be more active and personal.Spoken language is intuitive and interactive,bringshumans closer to machines and is couched in personalterms.Ifs not uncommon for people to thank their smartspeaker for delivering their favourite content somethingthat doesnt happen with mobile devices.If they haven*tdone so already,businesses need to start thinking abouta voice strategy.The final piece in the jigsaw puzzle of personalised mediawill be the rollout of 5G the revolutionary next generationof cellular mobile communications technology.Well takea closer look at 5G*s impacts when we zero in on newtechnologies,on page 13.Suffice it to say that with thesmartphone already established as the world*s mostpopular way to access the Internet,the advent of 5G willprovide another fillip for personalised media consumption.In effect,5G will establish new pipelines through whichstreams of data and content will flow to individual users.05 Perspectives from the Global Entertainment&Media Outlook 2019-2023Implications for businesses:One size does not fit allThe move to personalised,activeE&M experiences has profoundimplications for how companiesgo about framing and developingofferings.At the same time,it willimpose new responsibilities and,occasionally,limitations,on howthey market and present theirproducts and services.These newdynamics apply across differentplatforms,content types,anddigital and physical experiences though their ultimate impacts canvary among different geographicmarkets.Even as companiesaddress global markets,it is clearthat one size-and one strategy does not fit all.Having it all for a priceIn some instances,companies are meeting the expectationsof consumers by offering the widest possible array ofcontent for consumption.One of the most marked trendsemerging in response to consumers*changing behaviourand evolving technology concerns paid-for E&M offeringswith unlimited usage-the*all-you-can-eaf model.Such models are helping spur the global boom in dataconsumption.As data becomes available at lower cost,and as more content is produced and devices proliferate,companies are using quantity as a basis for competition.Although the instances that spring most readily to mind aredigital streaming services such as Netflix and Spotify,thiscompetitive tactic is also appearing in other media.TheApple News+app,launched in March 2019,offers readersaccess to the contents of 300 magazines,newspapers anddigital publications for a fixed monthly fee.Recognising that not all consumers wish to pay forunlimited data and content,companies in several marketsare offering differential pricing that goes well beyondeither the traditional freemium1 paid-for or ad-fundedmodels.For example,in August 2018,Alibaba in Chinarolled out a premium 88 VIP”membership package.It offers exclusive benefits to members across the Alibabaecosystem,covering commerce,entertainment and localservices.MoviePass,which started out pitching USmovie fans unlimited film admissions for a low monthlyprice,has shifted to a subscription system offering threetiers of benefits,at prices that depend in part on thesubscribers location.Companies like Alibaba and Amazon are creatingincreasingly pervasive ecosystems of which media is onlyone element.They use the attraction of E&M offeringsto provide a point of entry to multiple services used inconsumers,daily lives.And they can provide consumersof other services seamless and easy access to theirE&M offerings.Local dynamics increase in importance.As they segment individual markets by consumerpreference,companies are also learning to apply differentmodels to individual countries.Streaming giants like Netflixand Amazon have experimented with pricing models forindividual markets,in recognition of differing regionaleconomic circumstances and consumer habits.AlthoughJapan and the US are both wealthy countries,AmazonPrime,a service that allows both unlimited free delivery ofgoods and access to video content,costs US$35 a year inJapan,less than one-third of the price for US consumers.In less developed markets,theres a trend towardscompanies offering tiers of payments for different services,and competing on the basis on affordability-mirroringthe way consumer packaged goods companies developproduct formats that customers with low incomes canafford.In Southeast Asia,telecommunications companiesoften bundle together data,Internet and OTT services inan affordable package.For example,PCCWs OTT videoservic
