改革背景下“求变寻新”关注医药流通、康复、医疗信息化行业机会.pdf
?2015?2014?12?9?2014-2015?13.4%?12.9%?2014-2020?23%?2013-2014?2013?2014?2015?PBM?2015?+?PBM?GPO?1?2?3?4?2015?“?EPS?PE?2013 2014E2015E 2016E 20132014E2015E2016E?21.8 0.32 0.470.71 1.04 68 47 31 21?15.6 0.35 0.590.72 0.86 45 26 2118?24.2 0.54 1.190.78 1.07 44203022?46.7 1.23 1.201.53 1.87 39403226?35.7 0.74 1.001.20 1.48 48 36 30 24?34.7 0.39 0.600.83 1.11 88 58 42 31?43.9 0.43 0.590.86 1.22 105 74 51 36?17.4 0.18 0.340.42 0.53 97 51 42 33?28.3 0.00 0.020.04 0.08 10481 1487 774 337?6.0 0.06 0.090.10 0.13 98 68 59 48?21.4 0.25 0.360.40 0.46 85 60 54 46?26.7 0.16 0.390.59 0.86 170 68 45 31?wind?2014?11?28?010-60838072?S1010514050001?1?2014?.2014-06-01 2?2014?5?2013?2014?5?9?.2014-05-053?2014.4.21-2014.4.27?.2014-04-214?2014.4.14-2014.4.20?2014-04-145?2014.3.31-2014.4.4?.2014-03-316?2014.3.24-2014.3.28?2014-03-24 -13%-3%7%17%27%37%131125?300?140825140525140225?2015?.1?.2?.2?.2?+?.4?.6?.7?.10?.10?.15?.20?.20?.23?.24?.25?.25?.27?.28?2015?1?.1?2?2008-2013?2014?1-9?.2?3?2008-2013?2014?1-9?.2?4?.3?5?.3?6?.3?7?.4?8?2004-2014?+?.4?9?2006-2014?.4?10?.6?11?.7?12?.7?13?1?.8?14?3?.8?15?2014-2020?23%.9?16?.9?17?A?.10?18?.10?19?.15?20?.16?21?.16?22?.23?23?.23?24?2014?11?28?.25?25?2014?PE.27?2015?1?.1?2?2014?.4?3?2014?.5?4?.6?5?.7?6?2?.8?7?.10?8?.11?9?.11?10?.12?11?.14?12?.15?13?A?H?1.1?.17?14?A?H?3.1?.17?15?A?H?1?.19?16?.20?17?A?.20?18?.21?19?A?.21?20?A?.21?21?.22?22?.22?23?A?.24?24?CS?2014?11?28?.25?25?CS?2014?11?28?.25?26?CS?2014?11?28?.27?27?.28?28?.29?29?.30?30?.31?31?.31?32?.32?33?.33?.34?2015?1?2015?PBM?PBM?2015?+?PBM?GPO?1?2013-2014?2013?2014?2015?2015?1?/?GPO?2015?2?2014?1-9?17286?13.3%?1654?12%?2014?12457?13.4%?2009-2012?2014?2?2008-2013?2014?1-9?3?2008-2013?2014?1-9?2009?2013?36892.89?20%?2008?4.4%?2013?5.9%?2014?9?12.4%?6.7%?786495691200015126181942154332475300711890671128413141150821728621.70%25.40%26.00%20.30%17.90%13.40%13.80%13.20%13.10%13.90%13.90%13.80%13.30%-0.1-0.0500.050.10.150.20.250.3015000300002008200920102011201220132014 1-22014 1-32014 1-42014 1-52014 1-62014 1-72014 1-82014 1-9?84110561041168819762181306516683876110712631436165425.60%32.70%20.50%17.10%17.60%14.00%13.20%14.30%14.30%14.80%13.30%12.20%12.00%-0.1-0.0500.050.10.150.20.250.30.350180036002008200920102011201220132014 1-22014 1-32014 1-42014 1-52014 1-62014 1-72014 1-82014 1-9?2015?3?4?5?6?2014?3?0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0100020003000400050006000700080009000200920102011201220132014Q3?0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%200820132014?9?4.40%5.90%6.70%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%20102011201220132014Q3?2015?4?7?8?2004-2014?+?9?2006-2014?+?2015?1?2?2?2014?2012?2012?09?2013?09?2010?2011?2014?2014?2011?2010?2010?(?)?09?(?)?36%?50%?0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%?20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014E0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%?200620072008200920102011201220132014E?2015?5?2013?2011?2010?2014?2011?2011?2010?2014?2013?2011?2011?2009?(?)?2013?(?,?)?2014?2011?09?2014?2011?2014?2011?2011?2012?2012?2011?2011?2010?3?2014?9%-10%?10%?15%?200?2%5%?10%?20%?70%?15%?5?5?5%?10?9?2013?11?15?2014?2015?6?4?/?2013-9-25?2014-7-22?2015?3?28?2014-8-26?(?)?100?50?2014-9-18?9?2015?2?1?3%?5%?2014-10-28?12?113?28?2015?2015?2014?19%?2015?20%?13.4%?12.9%?10?2015?1000?/?3294415357038681033124031.00%21.30%31.40%23.50%19.00%20.00%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0200400600800100012001400200920102011201220132014E2015E?2015?7?11?12?2008?66?2016?30?18?15?5?2013?2014?2008 1.3?6000?2008 1000?767?A?C?2009 19?12?2009 270?163?2009 3200?2300?2011 9?20?2011 400?416?2011 N/A N/A?2011 340?353?2011 7174?7325?2011 716?665?2013 N/A 248?2013 N/A 87?2013 N/A 0.3?2014 N/A N/A?-?2009 N/A N/A?-?2012 N/A N/A?-?2012 N/A N/A?PDB?PDB?2014?10?FDA?2?1?2000?150?160?1.9?60?3.2?3.6?65?66%?2015?16%?2.21?5?10?2015?8?6?2?2015?2016?2015?2015?2015?2016?2?2016?2016?EV71?2015?B?2015?(?)?2015?CDE?2011?2014?CDE?1.1?3.1?3.1?13?1?CDE?14?3?CDE?2013?40?2020?8?2014-2020?10?-12%?2020?5.9?2014-2020?23%?050100150200200820092010201120122013?7239568488165111621191033020040060080010001200200820092010201120122013?4694365165977261025173193176169184233?2015?9?15?2014-2020?23%?/?/?16?A?A?10%?34%?46%46%46%46%44%44%44%42%40%39%37%36%34%33%54%54%54%54%56%56%56%58%60%61%63%64%66%67%01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900002007200820092010201120122013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E?/?2015?10?17?A?wind?18?Bloomberg?7?(?)?TTM?1?UNH?934 17.382?WLP?344 15.63?AET?304 14.424?CI?267 13.925?HUM?215 22.556 Centene Crop CNC?58 27.817 Fresenius Medical care AG&CO KGaAFMS?+?228 21.068 Davita Health Partners DVA?160 22.159?DGX?94 18.6410?LH?85 16.9611 Mednas MD?65 20.9412?THC?48 30.2813 HCA Holding HCA?302 17.8214 Universal Health Services Inc UHS?103 20.9715 Community health Systems Inc CYH?56 124.8316 Brookdale Senior Living BKD?64 13.5517 Healthsouth Crop HLS?36 26.6918 Cerner Crop.CERN?217 50.8919 Athenahealth Inc ATHN?46 106.75?Bloomberg?2015?1?2?3?34%31%17%8%7%3%CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?13%21%18%48%?2015?11?1?2?3?8?2014-3-18?2014-3-24?2014-4-29?2014-5-26?2014-6-16?2014-7-9?2014-7-7?2014-8-8?2014-8-18?2014-9-25?38?/?+?9?%2014?%2015?%2014?Q3?2014?Q3?600062.SH?49.12-20.9825.73 6.182.03000028.SZ?51.0030.9826.21 6.075.14600511.SH?44.0122.0221.45 3.350.12000999.SZ?63.593.2714.35 4.221.17600420.SH?41.6238.1531.98 2.250.27600056.SH?(?)?43.56 1.571.87002462.SZ?17.4517.9715.69 2.461.49600085.SH?(?)?54.8617.8418.73 1.950.83600833.SH?(?)?23.39 0.420.29601607.SH?HKSCC NOMINEES LIMITED?27.8112.7314.12 3.515.26600129.SH?38.813,442.2971.44-0.081.91000591.SZ?(?)?26.30 0.280.10600666.SH?(?)?32.39 0.440.01600488.SH?46.8062.7314.79 0.670.63600329.SH?44.0416.7125.21 1.440.77002393.SZ?51.36 3.969.30?2015?12?%2014?%2015?%2014?Q3?2014?Q3?600829.SH?74.82 1.990.23600664.SH?45.06 2.180.52600789.SH?24.59 0.061.17000756.SZ?35.3289.7753.65 1.041.27600529.SH?18.47 4.032.28600587.SH?29.4244.8938.21 2.083.28000919.SZ?45.2328.3419.62 2.020.93600713.SH?21.00101.66142.89 0.040.37600513.SH?40.44 1.020.53002349.SZ?41.3038.7822.57 0.941.37000411.SZ?21.35-0.1210.81 1.560.24000705.SZ?19.9412.1032.09 0.821.60600267.SH?33.227.7925.68 2.083.81002332.SZ?21.55 0.360.80600812.SH?36.93-0.052.11600750.SH?(?)?43.7120.5926.18 3.161.83000952.SZ?15.11 1.030.27000597.SZ?23.00 0.623.73000538.SZ?41.526.3922.77 7.461.20600436.SH?57.9211.1222.22 6.726.44600479.SH?20.213.1521.46 1.390.68600222.SH?26.5514.95175.03 0.370.63?wind?wind?+?13?10?/?/?2013?79.6%?84.4%?10?(TTM)2013?(?)2013?000028.SZ?51%26.322,119,946 53,421000411.SZ?21.35%61.961,236,930 16,877000591.SZ?26.3%645.62463,530 2,023?2015?13?(TTM)2013?(?)2013?000705.SZ?19.94%69.40201,814 6,579002462.SZ?17.45%24.13354,427 14,664002727.SZ?;?33.75%41.84354,666 23,935600056.SH?43.56%23.811,482,950 53,641600511.SH?44.01%27.841,008,147 42,411600713.SH?21%80.971,873,779 5,981600833.SH?23.39%86.36134,839 3,426600998.SH?26.360048.703,343,804 47,087601607.SH?27.81%16.327,822,281 262,6614002589.SZ?;?24.86%38.59592,584 14,424?79.56%84.38%?wind?2014?9?9?2014?BAT?C2B?3000?2013?1?GSP?2015?14?11?2000?2001?“?2014?3?2012?2012?“?”?300?2013?2014?2015?2014?2014?2014?”?“?2013?GPO?2015?15?19?11?PBM?12?300?3?1?2?2?7?14?2015?GPO?2015?16?20?2015?2015?20%?21?A?H?2015?2015?17?13?A?H?1.1?1.1?2020?10?2020?1?2013?1.6?*?III?2018?2013?3500?*II?III?2020?2013?6000?*?II?2020?2013?6?2013?1?*?2013?13?2014?3?2013?5?2020?2013?1.6?2015?2013?1.8?*?,?(?),?,?rE4 2019?2013?900?*?2020?2013?3500?*?2019?2013?1.2?*?2019?2013?6400?*?2018?2013?454?*?HIV?HBV?2018?2013?700?*?2018?2013?1.3?*?2019?2013?3500?*?2021?2020?2013?8700?*?2017?2013?2000?*?B 2021?CDE?PDB?PDB?14?A?H?3.1?3.1?2015?ULORIC?12?2015?ALOXI HELSINN?4?2015?Rupafin Uriach?6?2015?2012?16?2020?ANZEMET?5?2016?Levopraid?3?2015?2020?KEPPRA UCB?2013?1.1?2020?Gracevit?3000?2016?2013?2.2?*?2015?2013?1.1?(VTE)?2015?Hospira Inc?2013?98?2016?2013?1700?2017?Asure?2020?2015?Latuda SUNOVION PHARMS INC?2013?7?2017?2013?3600?*?2015?18?3.1?2015?2013?4800?*?2015?2013?1400?*?2017?2013?9000?*?2017?PROCORALAN?2013?2?2017?2013?1.1?*?(VTE)?2017?2013?400?*?2017?2013?1.5?2017?2013?3500?*?2019?Firstcin?2013?1.6?2020?NEUPRO UCB?2013?1?2017?Votrien GSK?2013?12?2013?1.3?*?2019?DORIBAX SHIONOGI INC?2013?5?2016?Azilsartan?2013?8?2017?2013?10?2015?2013?2000?*?2017?2013?2?2017?OPALMON Ono?2013?7?2017?Revlimid celgene?2013?140?2014?300?2017?2013?340?*?2014?380?2015?Katadolon Teva?2013?680?2014?440?*?2017?2013?1500?2014?900?2016?2013?2014?190?*?2015?2013?1600?14?600?2016?EPTIFIBATIDESCHERING?2013?6?2017?Evoltra Bioenvision?2013?1.5?2017?Cipralex Lundbeck Inc.Lundbeck Inc.?2013?8?2015?2013?6600?*?CDE?PDB?2013?*?PDB?2015?19?15?A?H?1?1?-?2020?2013?5.7?*.?2.18?18?HSK3486?2023?(?)2013?3100?*?2014?20?*?2013?2200?*?EV71?2018?71?(Vero?)2017?24?2021?2021?2013?5.7?*.?2.18?18?2020?2013?5.7?*.?2.18?18?(H5N1)?(Vero?)2021?(H5N1)?(Vero?)2018?2021?-?2a?(?)2021?2a 2013?800?*?-?-?HER2?2?2019?(?)2013?4.8?VEGF?2019?2013?2.6?9?2019?b?2018?HER2?(2?)2019?(?)2013?4.8?(Vero?)2018?-1(7-36)?2016?2013?1.6?*?2017?09?CDE?PDB?2013?*?PDB?1:59?90%?2009?10%?102?1?2?5?2015?20?16?CFDA?2014-5-30?A?17?A?2013?7.8?-?1.8?-?A?D?4.2?5000?-?5000?1.2?Vero?)?7000?6000?OTC?2000?1?-OTC?-?PDB?1?8500?5000?2?2014?60?2?3%?8000?3?2?5%?30?-60%?300-600?4?1?10%-25%?1000-2500?1?200?1?2014?2015?8000?12000?2015?21?1000?2000?2?2?18?2010-9-14?9?2011-6-9?“?”?“?”?2012-3-5?2012-3-20?2012?2011-4-14?30?40?2010-9-14?9?19?A?20?A?2015?22?2010?9?50%?90%?60%?80%-90%?100?4?21?1?1?3?2?1?2?1?3?1?3?3?6?3?3?5?1?4?1?3?1?5?1?3?1?6?1?3?7?1?3?1?8?1?3?9?1?4?Healthsouth?99?37?4?2014?CYBERDYNE?15.6?Wintergreen Research?4300?2020?180?2012?22?(?)?(TTM)?1 Healthsouth Crop HLS?37 25.55?99?2 Select Medical Holdings Corp SEM?19 15.1?15?3 Kindred Healthcare Inc KND?13-?4 Ensign Group,Inc.ENSG?0.9 24?120?5?GTIV?0.7-?6 U.S.Physical Therapy,Inc.USPH?0.5 23.8?2015?23?(?)?(TTM)?7 Skilled Healthcare Group,Inc.SKH?0.2-?70?8 ReWalk Robotics RWLK?0.3-?Rewalk?9 Ekso Bionics Holdings,Inc.EKSO?0.13-?Ekso?10 CYBERDYNE,INC.TYO:7779?15.6-?400?50?Bloomberg?IDC?2017?336.53?14.53%?2017?56.7?14.43%?2012?GDP?9.70%?5.00%?16%?IT?0.62%?1.94%?22?IDC?23?IDC?PBM?PBM?0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%050100150200250300350400?201020092011201220132014E2015E2016E2017E20%17%16%16%14%10%00.050.10.150.20.2501000200030004000500060002011201220132014E2015E2016E2017E?2015?24?23?A?(?)?(TTM)?1 Cerner Crop.CERN 217.5 51?2?ATHN 44.68 3910?3?MDRX 21.7-?4 The Advisory Board Co.ABCO 15.3 102.8?5 MedAssets,Inc.MDAS 11.8 40.3?1024?(?)?(TTM)?6?600718 196 57.09?5000?7?000503 254 1904.20?PBM?18?100?“?”?8?300253 146 146.80?71?9?300168 183 113.23?10?300290 36 71.50?A?463?Bloomberg?wind?1?2?3?4?2015?25?2014?11?28?47%?21?A?55%?8?24?2014?11?28?Wind?2014?11?28?A?24?CS?2014?11?28?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?61%56%46%42%33%33%?Wind?2014?11?28?25?CS?2014?11?28?%?300406.SZ?366120 2014-10-30?300401.SZ?33139 2014-10-09?300254.SZ?22058?603168.SH?21164 2014-07-02?300109.SZ?16433 2010-08-25?600666.SH?13447?300363.SZ?12589 2014-01-29?300267.SZ?111186 2011-09-27?300016.SZ?10953 2009-10-30?002728.SZ?10842 2014-07-31?000153.SZ?10550 300086.SZ?9753 2010-05-26?300233.SZ?9553 2011-06-22?000004.SZ?9219?600789.SH?8853?000952.SZ?7832?55%47%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?A?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?2015?26?%?000597.SZ?7357?300194.SZ?7361 2011-03-22?000756.SZ?7338?603456.SH?6978 2014-10-10?300199.SZ?66141 2011-04-07?000739.SZ?6695?600513.SH?6327?002365.SZ?6127 2010-03-05?600380.SH?59117?600829.SH?5558?300318.SZ?5335 2012-05-23?000566.SZ?5284 002099.SZ?4771?600420.SH?4668 600488.SH?4358 300110.SZ?4255 2010-08-25 002437.SZ?41174 2010-06-23 002675.SZ?4142 2012-05-25 002020.SZ?3956 000788.SZ?38106 002693.SZ?3638 2012-08-08 002019.SZ?34123 002399.SZ?33213 2010-05-06 600812.SH?33108 600664.SH?29151 000513.SZ?28145 600851.SH?24105 002004.SZ?24125 002001.SZ?20163 300006.SZ?2070 000790.SZ?1941 002370.SZ?1840 2010-03-16 002262.SZ?16107 600200.SH?1582 000963.SZ?15227 600267.SH?14162 600521.SH?10114 002332.SZ?852 2010-01-12 002422.SZ?7234 2010-06-03 600196.SH?5470 600216.SH?5101 600276.SH?4536 002294.SZ?3227 300289.SZ?-154 2012-02-16 000915.SZ?-155 002653.SZ?-2207 2012-01-17 600771.SH?-460 600062.SH?-4120 600079.SH?-10134 002393.SZ?-1163 2010-04-23?Wind?2015?27?26?CS?2014?11?28?%?002727.SZ?1662014-07-02 121?000411.SZ?10144?000591.SZ?7439?600833.SH?6331?002462.SZ?622010-08-18 58?600511.SH?55138?600713.SH?5457?000705.SZ?5038?600056.SH?29140 600998.SH?172010-11-02 287 601607.SH?3401 000028.SZ?-3162?Wind?2014?39.4x PE?16.5%?13%-15%?25?2014?PE?/%?Wind?2014?11?28?2013-2014?2013?2014?2015?39.3713.8417%13%-60-40-200204060801001201401602014?2014?%CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?CS?A?CS?CS?CS?CS?2015?28?27?/?300273?2009-2011?630?160?2-3?5?2012?-2013?2013?4?+?+?1?2?3?4?+?5.39?8000?1?2013?3?+?1?2?2014-2016?EPS?0.47?0.71?1.04?0.61/0.91/1.34?PE?46X?30X?21X?2015?29?2015?40X?6?29?28?/?201220132014E 2015E 2016E?5897401066 1524 2134?YoY%20%26%44%43%40%?124174269 405 595?YoY%59%40%55%51%47%?EPS?0.220.300.47 0.71 1.04?%54%62%65%66%67%?ROE%13%16%19%23%25%PE 997346 30 21PB 4.79.18.9 6.9 5.4EV/EBITDA 784928 19 13?2014?11?28?600329?+?44%?30?2009?2012?2010?150?3?/?2013?8?20?5?1215?25?2014?10.9?4?10?3?2?2?20%?1?20%?2-3?8-9?+?2015?1?2012?2012?3?2015?2?3?13?9000?11.2?2015?30?T14?1.00?2014?1.8?T14?1?2?20142016?16%/15%/14%?25%/22%/19%?EPS 0.59?/0.72?/0.86?2014-2016?PE?26X?21X?18X?+?2015?28?PE?6?20.2?29?/?201220132014E 2015E 2016E?5,1306,0106,972 8,018 9140.?YoY%16.8017.1616.00 15.00 14?441.30351.79434.85 532.67 644?YoY%78.19-20.2825 22 19?EPS?0.600.480.59 0.72 0.86?%35 32 33 33 32?ROE%19 14 15 15 16 PE 26 32 26 21 18 PB 5 4 4 3 3 EV/EBITDA 34 32 27 21 17?2014?11?28?002462?GPO?+?+?+?2011?4?2015?30?25%?22%?7%-8%?4?2015?GPO?GPO?2013?2014?2.92?2014?6?GPO?3?20142016?55%/40%/35%?130%/-34%/36%?2014?1.37?EPS 1.19?/0.78?/1.07?2014-2016?PE?20X?30X?22X?2015?40?PE?6?31.2?2015?31?30?/?201220132014E 2015E 2016E?(?)2554 3544 5494 7691 10383?YoY%42 39 55 40 35?(?)65 130 299 198 269?YoY%2 100 130 (34)36?(?)0.27 0.54 1.19 0.78 1.07?%9 10 11 11 11?%6 10 19 11 13?PE(x)88 44 20 30 22?PB(x)5 4 4 3 3 EV/EBITDA 4 7 6 8 9?002727?2480?1915?141?254?38?42?90?9.84%?640?1-2?2500-3000?40.6%?F2C?O2O?O2O?SAP?1?2?GSP?O2O?2014-2016?27%?26%?21%?30%?27%?22%?EPS?1.20?1.53?1.87?2014-2016?PE?40X?32X?26X?2015?40X?6?61?31?/?201220132014E 2015E 2016E?(?)2842 3547 4504 5675 6867?YoY%28 25 27 26 21?(?)183 241 313 397 486?YoY%36 32 30 27 22?(?)0.94 1.23 1.20 1.53 1.87?%38 40 40 40 40?%23 23 23 23 22?PE(x)52 39 40 32 26?PB(x)12 9 9 7 6 EV/EBITDA 13 11 10 8 7?wind?2015?32?32?2012 2013 2014E 2015E2016E?2,554 3,544 5,494 7,691 10,383?2,332 3,207 4,889 6,837 9,230?8.7%9.5%11.0%11.1%11.1%?8 8 22 31 42?99 149 275 423 571?3.87%4.20%5.00%5.50%5.50%?28 40 88 154 208?1.09%1.12%1.60%2.00%2.00%?-6-1 5 5 5?-0.24%-0.02%0.09%0.07%0.05%?2 30 137 0 0?92165 354 234 318?3.59%4.65%6.44%3.04%3.06%?1 30 7 7 7?1 0 6 6 6?92194 355 235 319?23 48 48 32 43?24.8%24.5%13.5%13.5%13.5%?4 16 8 5 7?65130 299 198 269?2.55%3.67%5.45%2.57%2.59%?(?)(?)0.26 0.52 1.19 0.78 1.07?20122013 2014E 2015E2016E?384 303 714 1,000 1,350?227 450 963 1,347 1,818?744 1,321 875 1,226 1,655?26 98 502 694 930?1,382 2,173 3,055 4,267 5,753?259 320 499 679 838?2 2 2 2 2?34 33 33 33 32?243 261 291 311 341?538 615 825 1,02
