Unepfi-农业部门的气候风险（英）-2023.3.pdf

Climate Risks in the Agriculture SectorMarch 2023Sectoral Risk Briefings:Insights for Financial InstitutionsSectoral Risk Briefings:Insights for Financial Institutions|Climate Risks in the Agriculture Sector 2Contents|AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgmentsAuthorsUNEP FIDavid CarlinHead of Climate Risk and TCFD(david.carlinun.org)Maheen ArshadClimate Risk Manager(mahaeen.arshadun.org)Katy BakerClimate Risk Associate(katy.bakerun.org)The authors would specifically like to acknowledge the contributions,inputs,and supporting research that have enabled the completion of this report:Hina Majid,UNEP FIJoana Pedro,UNEP FIMax Yang,Williams CollegeIn addition,the authors are grateful to the banks and investors who participated in the sector exercises of the pilot project and provided feedback on this report.Project managementThe project was set up,managed,and coordinated by the UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative,specifically:Remco Fischer(kai.fischerun.org)and David Carlin(david.carlinun.org)Sectoral Risk Briefings:Insights for Financial Institutions|Climate Risks in the Agriculture Sector 3Contents|AcknowledgmentsThe pilot project was led by a Working Group of the following banks and investors convened by the UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative:ABN-AMROAccess BankAIBBank of AmericaBank of IrelandBanorteBarclaysBBVABMOBradescoCaixa BankCDL CIBCIBCCitibanamexCOECredit SuisseDanske BankDesjardinsDNBEBRDFarm Credit CanadaFirstRandForbright BankFTFGoldman SachsHSBCING Intesa SanpaoloInvestaItauKB FGKBCLinkreitManulifeMizuhoMUFGNABNatWestNIBRabobankRBCSantanderScotia BankSovcom BankStandard BankStorebrandTD Asset ManagementTD BankTSKBUBSWells FargoSectoral Risk Briefings:Insights for Financial Institutions|Climate Risks in the Agriculture Sector 4Contents|AcknowledgmentsContentsAcknowledgments.2Introduction.6Agriculture sector overview.7Transition risks.101.Increasing carbon price.112.Public policy restrictions.133.Advancements in less carbon-intensive technology.174.Shift in market preferences.205.Growing investor action .236.Rising reputational risk.247.Transition risk guidance.28Physical risks.311.Drought and heat stress.342.Extreme storms&flooding.383.Wildfires.414.Sea level rise.435.Ocean acidification.446.Invasive species.467.Physical risk guidance.49References .52Sectoral Risk Briefings:Insights for Financial Institutions|Climate Risks in the Agriculture Sector 5Contents|AcknowledgmentsList of figures,tables and case studiesFigure 1:Emissions from agricultural activities and the share of agriculture in global GHG emissions.7Figure 2:Aims of the EUs Farm to Fork Strategy.14Figure 3:Overview of agricultural subsidies in 2017,by country and type of commodity.15Figure 4:Chinas expenditure on agricultural R&D.18Figure 5:Global meat market forecast(in US$billions).19Figure 6:Share of meat protein in total protein consumption from 1990 to 2030.20Figure 7:Meat consumption per capita and a shift from beef to poultry.21Figure 8:Beef and soya bean companies linked to clearance and deforestation in Brazil.25Figure 9:Satellite imagery highlighting the extent of deforestation in protected areas of the Amazon from 20192020.27Figure 10:Crop and production loss per type of physical hazard in the Least Developed Countries(LDCs)and Lower-middle Income Countries(LMICs)from 20082018.32Figure 11:Change in average,daily agricultural real incomes due to a global temperature rise of 3C compared to pre-industrial levels.36Figure 12:Cropland affected by flooding from tropical storm Ana from 2428 January 2022.38Figure 13:Chinese Consumer Price Index for meat,grains,and vegetables from May 2019 to September 2020.39Figure 14:20192020 wildfires in Australia.41Figure 15:(A)Overall invasion threat to countries;and(B)Total costs of invasions to countries.46Figure 16:Desert locust swarms in Kenya.48Table 1:Key climate risks for the agriculture(including aquaculture)sectorCase study 1:Carbon price risk.12Case study 2:Public policy risk.16Case study 3:Food security risk.33Case study 4:Drought and heat stress.37Case study 5:Cyclone and flood risk.40Sectoral Risk Briefings:Insights for Financial Institutions|Climate Risks in the Agriculture Sector 6Contents|IntroductionIntroductionIn the past few years,the global economy has been lashed by the COVID-19 pandemic,geopolitical conflict,supply chain disruptions,an energy crisis,and high inflation.These challenges are occurring against the backdrop of the mounting planetary emergency of climate change.Climate change can exacerbate all other challenges;increasing geopo-litical conflicts over resources,crippling infrastructure and supply chains,extending the range of dangerous pathogens,and causing the collapse of the natural systems upon which we depend.As the US Pentagon presciently stated:“climate change is a threat multiplier”.While the transition to a sustainable,net-zero future is critical,it demands fundamental shifts in nearly all economic sectors.These shifts are not without risk for companies and the communities impacted by them.Financial institutions face an array of risks from this rapidly changing,and often chaotic,global context.Their clients are exposed to physical hazards as well as transition risks.These can have major credit,market,and operational implications.The prudent financial institution will explore these climate-related risks and prepare strategies to meet them.Ensuring resiliency and success in the future depends on making good decisions and thoughtful plans today.UNEP FI has been working at the intersection of sustainability and finance for over 30 years.Its programmes for financial institutions develop the tools and practices neces-sary to positively address the most pressing environmental challenges of our time.UNEP FIs Climate Risk and TCFD programme has now worked with over 100 financial insti-tutions to explore physical and transition risks posed by climate change.Through this work,a need has been identified to provide financial institutions with a baseline under-standing of climate-related risks and their manifestations across different sectors.This brief is part of a series of notes that cover major economic sectors and their asso-ciated climate risks.UNEP FI intends for the resources and perspectives included within these notes to empower financial colleagues to communicate these risks throughout their institutions and across the financial sector more generally.The hope is that the communication process will not only enhance awareness of climate risks,but also begin conversations that will lead to tangible changes in strategy and operations.The extent to which these insights are integrated will be the truest test of this series effectiveness.This particular brief covers the physical and transition risks facing the agriculture sector.Sectoral Risk Briefings:Insights for Financial Institutions|Climate Risks in the Agriculture Sector 7Contents|Agriculture overviewAgriculture overviewEmissions produced from the agriculture sector are driving the global temperature to rise at an alarming rate.The Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO)of the United Nations reported that emissions from agriculture and related land use account for 17%of global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions(FAO,2018).Agricultural activities and food production are associated with carbon dioxide(CO2),nitrous oxide(N2O),and methane(CH4)emissions.Direct emissions from the sector are typically N2O and CH4(Lynch et al.,2021).Around one third of global methane emissions(32%)come from cows and other livestock due to the fermentation process during digestion.Methane emissions are also released during other agricultural activities,such as manure decomposition and rice cultivation(UN,2022).Nitrogen fertilizers cause N20 emissions due to the excess amounts of nitrogen that they release in agricultural runoff(UN,2022).The agriculture sector is also one of the main drivers of CO2 emissions caused by land-use change,such as clearing land for crop production.Land use-related CO2 emissions account for about 14%of annual CO2 emissions.Of this 14%,the majority(71%)are directly linked to agriculture(Lynch et al.,2021).The global food system is also the primary driver of biodiversity loss,with agriculture threatening 24,000 of the 28,000 species at risk of extinction(UNEP,2021).Figure 1:Emissions from agricultural activities and the share of agriculture in global GHG emissions(FAO,2020)Sectoral Risk Briefings:Insights for Financial Institutions|Climate Risks in the Agriculture Sector 8Contents|Agriculture overviewIn spite of the fertilizer effect of CO2,higher temperatures will push many regions past optimal growing temperatures and yields.According to estimates by the United Nations,the global population is expected to rise to about 10 billion by 2050(United Nations,2021),which will add pressure on already strained food systems.As rainfall and weather patterns increasingly shift,crops may be damaged by the severe climate events result-ing from these changes,such as floods,storms,and droughts(Colombia,2022).If global warming worsens,rising global temperatures and extreme weather events threaten to significantly affect agriculture production.According to the Globagri-WRR model,a global agriculture and land-use accounting system,agricultural land use will need to expand by over three billion hectares in order to meet the projected land demand for 2050.This massive increase in land use will result in major increases in GHG emis-sions(World Bank,2020).As economies set climate targets,decarbonisation of the agriculture sector poses significant transition risks.Below,we explore in depth the key physical and transition risks faced by the agriculture(including aquaculture)sector(Table 1).Table 1:Key climate risks for the agriculture(including aquaculture)sectorRiskSummaryTransition RisksIncreasing carbon priceImplementing carbon taxes could greatly impact the production and operating costs of carbon-intensive agriculture activities.Public policy restrictionsGovernments can increase policy pressure through policies related to pasture reduction,deforestation,and oil palm expansion.Advancements in less carbon-intensive technologyTraditional agricultural producers can face pressure from producers that adopt the use of less carbon-intensive technologies.Shift in market preferencesDue to rising awareness of the large carbon footprint of the sector,consumers are increasingly willing to change eating habits and shift to other alternatives.Growing investor actionDue to the growing consideration of climate risks,investors are calling on countries and companies to reduce emissions produced from the sector.Rising reputational riskCompanies linked to agricultural activities that drive climate change,such as deforestation,are increasingly vulnerable to reputational risks due to criticism from investors,non-profit organisations,and consumers.Sectoral Risk Briefings:Insights for Financial Institutions|Climate Risks in the Agriculture Sector 9Contents|Agriculture overviewPhysical RisksDroughts and heat stressHeatwaves and droughts can threaten livestock and feed supplies as well as causing changes in crop production,resulting in higher costs and agriculture loss.Extreme storms and floodingExtreme storms and flooding can reduce the production and quality of feed grain,pastures,and crops.Such events can reduce the supply and quality of crops and livestock.Sea level riseSea level rises can impact biodiversity,decrease soil quality,induce more flooding,and increase saltwater intrusion and soil salinisation,causing production to fall and negatively impacting income and food security.WildfiresIncreased severity and frequency of wildfires can damage crops and livestock,resulting in losses for the forestry industry and infrastructure.Wildfires also create hazardous working environments for outdoor workers.Ocean acidificationClimate change is rapidly increasing the acidity of oceans.Rapid ocean acidification severely threatens marine biodiversity.Invasive speciesInvasive species can reduce the resilience of agricultural systems and are one of the biggest drivers of biodiversity loss.The increased spread of invasive species can affect food security and livelihoods.SECTION A:Transition risksAgriculture,including forestry,fisheries,and livestock,contribute to a fifth of GHG emissions.In order to achieve net zero by 2050,the sector needs to reduce emissions(FAO,n.d.).As a result,the agriculture sector is exposed to multiple transition risks,including policies and regulations,technological shifts,and changes in consumer preferences.The transition risks facing the agriculture sector also pose a risk for workers and communities that rely on the the sector for jobs and income.It is therefore important to align financing with a just transition approach that considers the impact of the transition on groups at risk to operations in the agriculture sector,including workers,Indigenous Peoples and local communities.Sectoral Risk Briefings:Insights for Financial Institutions|Climate Risks in the Agriculture Sector 11Contents|Transition risks1.Increasing carbon priceA carbon tax is an effective tool for lowering emissions.As policymakers and decision makers try to curb carbon emissions,the agriculture sector faces increasing risks from the implementation of carbon prices worldwide.In 2021,global carbon pricing reve-nue rose by 60%as compared to 2020,reaching approximately US$84 billion.Carbon prices are reaching record heights in markets such as the European Union(EU),Califor-nia,New Zealand,Korea,Switzerland,and Canada(World Bank,2022).The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)projected that a carbon price of US$240 per ton of CO2 equivalent emissions by 2050 would be consistent with a 1.5 climate target.Such a price point would serve to reduce net agriculture,forestry,and other land use(AFOLU)emissions by the 129%required to achieve the target,the OECD calculated(Ben Henderson et al.,2021).Implementing carbon taxes could greatly impact the production and operating costs of carbon-intensive agriculture activities(Schnitkey,Zulauf&Paulson,2021).Research suggests that,on average,a carbon tax of US$144 per ton of CO2 equivalent emissions could increase production costs for energy-intensive crops,such as corn and soya beans,by 27.45%.Increased production costs can be partially compensated through increased commodity prices.For example,a carbon tax of US$144 per ton can decrease returns for maize and wheat by 11.4%and 11%,respectively.Increased production costs of crops due to carbon taxes can cause a shift in production and trade patterns,poten-tially precipitating a reallocation of land use globally.For example,imposing a carbon tax on corn and wheat could increase preference for commodities such as barley,soya beans,and sunflowers by 1.2 to 8.8%(Dumortier and Elobeid,2021).Carbon taxes also have a negative impact on the income of farmers.British Columbia introd