2023年亚洲发展展望（七月版）-10页-WN7.pdf
HIGHLIGHTS Exports from developing Asia weakened in the first quarter of 2023 as global demand slowed.However,consumption and investment are forecast to boost aggregate regional growth to 4.8%in 2023,as earlier forecast,with the projection for 2024 revised down only marginally to 4.7%.Given balancing developments,growth forecasts for East Asia are maintained at 4.6%in 2023 and at 4.2%in 2024,for South Asia at 5.5%in 2023 and 6.1%in 2024,and for the Pacific at 3.3%in 2023 and 2.8%in 2024.Southeast Asias growth prospects are downgraded slightly from 4.7%to 4.6%in 2023 and from 5.0%to 4.9%in 2024,reflecting weaker global demand for manufactured exports.Growth forecasts for the Caucasus and Central Asia are adjusted down from 4.4%to 4.3%in 2023 and from 4.6%to 4.4%in 2024 after oil production in Azerbaijan fell more than expected.Headline inflation eased toward pre-pandemic averages as fuel and food prices waned.With lower inflation in developing Asia and more moderate monetary tightening in the United States,most central banks in the region have kept policy rates steady this year,with signs emerging of a shift toward easiermoney.Interest rates in the United States and other advanced economies are likely to shape the regional growth outlook,with upside and downside risks in balance.Recent DevelopmentsEconomic activity in major advanced economies remained weak as monetary tightening took hold.Although gross domestic product(GDP)growth in the United States(US)slowed from 2022,it surprised on the upside at 1.3%in the first quarter(Q1)of 2023(box).While the labor market remained tight,inflation declined to 3.0%in June.The euro area contracted for a second consecutive quarter and thus entered a technical recession,with leading economic activity indicators suggesting continued weakness.In Japan,revived inbound tourism and services boosted growth to 2.7%.Strong services were the main driver of recovery in the Peoples Republic of China(PRC),where GDP growth rebounded to 4.5%but consumer price pressures remained benign.Oil prices declined from their peak in April as global activity weakened from last year.Exports and industrial activity in developing Asia continue to decelerate as global demand slows(Figure 1).Year on year in the year to date,exports from key technology exporters declined sharply,while weaker demand also held down exports from the rest of the region.Manufacturing purchasing managers indexes(PMIs)across major regional economies show divergence but also general weakness in export-oriented economies(Table 1).PMIs remain below 50 in the Republic of Korea(ROK),Singapore,and Taipei,China,indicating contraction month on month,especially in exporters of semiconductors,electronics,and other high technology products,but readings indicate high growth in India,the Philippines,and Thailand buoyed by strong domestic demand.In the PRC,exports of motor vehicles,lithium batteries,and solar cells improved in the first half of this year,but exports of furniture,textiles,ROBUST GROWTH WITH MODERATING INFLATIONThe Asian Development Bank Regional Economic Outlook Task Force led the preparation of a revised outlook for this Asian Development Outlook.The task force is chaired by the Economic Research and Development Impact Department and includes representatives of the Central and WestAsia Department,East Asia Department,Pacific Department,South Asia Department,and Southeast Asia Department.JULY 2023ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK2ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK JULY 2023Figure 1Exports from Developing AsiaAfter a spike as suppliers filled order backlogs following COVID-19 and supply chain disruption,exports from the Peoples Republic of China weakened again.Developing Asia excluding the Peoples Republic of ChinaPeoples Republic of ChinaKey technology exportersa6080100120140160180Jul2019Jan2020JulJan2021JulJan2022JulJan2023JulIndex,2019=100COVID-19=coronavirus disease.a the Republic of Korea,Singapore;and Taipei,China.Sources:CEIC Data Company;CPB World Trade Monitor.and electronics and components faltered.Tourism continues to recover,with arrivals reaching pre-pandemic levels in many economies.Headline inflation eased toward pre-pandemic averages as supply-side pressures waned and monetary tightening took hold.It has trended down in all subregions this year along with fuel and food prices.Core inflation is more mixed.It remained elevated in many East and Southeast Asian economies because of higher input prices and as revived leisure activities pushed up prices for services,but it started to trend down in the Caucasus and Central Asia,partly reflecting base effects there.Most central banks have kept policy rates steady this year,but signs have emerged of a shift toward easing.Three-quarters of monetary policy decisions made since April in developing Asia have left policy rates unchanged.Central banks in Armenia,Georgia,the PRC,and Sri Lanka have actually cut policy rates.With inflation easing in the region and the US Federal Reserve moderating its monetary tightening,financial conditions have improved since March.After temporarily rising in March,the volatility index of the Chicago Board Options Exchange has since steadily declined,tracking market normalization and reduced uncertainty,especially for banks.As market sentiment improved,value-weighted return on equities increased by 6.4%from 18 March to 30 June(Figure 2).In the same period,the weighted average regional risk premium narrowed marginally,as measured by J.P.Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global stripped spreads.Despite an upgrade for US growth this year,the global outlook for next year is dimmed by lagged effects from interest rate hikes.The 2023 growth forecast for the US is revised up from Asian Development Outlook,April 2023(ADO April 2023)following expansion in Q1 that surprised on the upside.However,US growth is now projected to slow in 2024.The forecast for growth acceleration next year in the euro area is similarly downgraded because of interest rate hikes.Japans growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are revised down in line with weakening export demand and capital investment.As domestic demand remains robust,the regional growth forecast is maintained at 4.8%for 2023 and revised down only marginally to 4.7%for 2024(Table 2).Aggregate GDP growth in the regions 10 largest economies accelerated from 2.1%year on year in the second half of 2022 to 3.7%in Q1 2023,driven by a strong recovery in services after the PRC lifted coronavirus disease(COVID-19)restrictions.Subregional growth forecasts for this year and next are little changed,but with a notable downward revision for the Caucasus and Central Asia in Table 1 Seasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Purchasing Managers IndexesThese leading indicators continued to diverge in the region as manufacturing remained weak in key technology exporters.Economy2023Q1Q2JanFebMarAprMayJunIndia55.455.356.457.258.757.8Thailand54.554.853.160.458.253.2Indonesia51.351.251.952.750.352.5Philippines53.552.752.551.452.250.9Peoples Republic of China49.251.650.049.550.950.5Singapore49.850.049.949.749.549.7Republic of Korea48.548.547.648.148.447.8Malaysia46.548.448.848.847.847.7Viet Nam47.451.247.746.745.346.2Taipei,China44.349.048.647.144.344.8Note:Pink to red indicates worsening(50).The series for Singapore is not seasonally adjusted.Key technology exporters include the Republic of Korea;Singapore;and Taipei,China.Source:CEIC Data Company.ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK JULY 20233Table 2GDP Growth Rate and Inflation,%GDP GrowthInflation202220232024202220232024AprilJulyAprilJulyAprilJulyAprilJulyDeveloping Asia4.34.84.84.84.74.44.23.63.33.4Developing Asia excluding the PRC5.54.64.55.15.06.76.26.24.44.8Caucasus and Central Asia5.14.44.34.64.412.910.310.67.57.8Kazakhstan3.33.73.94.14.115.011.812.46.47.2East Asia2.84.64.64.24.22.32.31.32.02.1Hong Kong,China-3.53.64.73.73.31.92.32.52.12.1Peoples Republic of China3.05.05.04.54.52.02.21.02.02.0Republic of Korea2.61.51.32.22.25.13.23.52.02.5Taipei,China2.42.01.52.62.72.92.02.02.02.0South Asia6.75.55.56.16.18.28.18.15.86.4India7.26.46.46.76.76.75.04.94.54.5Southeast Asia5.64.74.65.04.95.14.44.33.33.2Indonesia5.34.84.85.05.04.24.23.83.03.0Malaysia8.74.74.74.94.93.43.13.12.82.8Philippines7.66.06.06.26.25.86.26.24.04.0Singapore3.62.01.53.03.06.15.05.02.02.0Thailand2.63.33.53.73.76.12.92.92.32.3Viet Nam8.06.55.86.86.23.24.54.04.24.0The Pacific5.33.33.32.82.85.25.05.04.44.4GDP=gross domestic product,PRC=Peoples Republic of China.Note:Developing Asia refers to the 46 developing members of the Asian Development Bank.Caucasus and Central Asia comprises Armenia,Azerbaijan,Georgia,Kazakhstan,the Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan.East Asia comprises Hong Kong,China;Mongolia;the Peoples Republic of China;the Republic of Korea;and Taipei,China.South Asia comprises Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhutan,India,Maldives,Nepal,Pakistan,and Sri Lanka.Southeast Asia comprises Brunei Darussalam,Cambodia,Indonesia,the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,Malaysia,Myanmar,the Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,TimorLeste,and Viet Nam.The Pacific comprises the Cook Islands,the Federated States of Micronesia,Fiji,Kiribati,the Marshall Islands,Nauru,Niue,Palau,Papua New Guinea,Samoa,Solomon Islands,Tonga,Tuvalu,and Vanuatu.Sources:Asian Development Bank.2023.Asian Development Outlook April 2023;Asian Development Bank estimates.Figure 2Equity Market PerformanceEquity markets recovered from losses inflicted in March by poor investor sentiment during banking turmoil in the United States and Europe.1419242934708090100110JanAprJulOctJanApr30-day moving averageIndex,3 January 2022=100Developing AsiaS&P 500 IndexSVB stock crashes20222023CBOE Volatility IndexNovember FOMC meetingCBOE=Chicago Board Options Exchange,FOMC=Federal Open Market Committee,SVB=Silicon Valley Bank.Source:Bloomberg.4ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK JULY 2023continue to support economic recovery,particularly to boost domestic demand.In June,the central bank cut three key policy rates to boost the economy.With a strong rebound in Q1 and moderating growth in Q2,growth remains largely consistent with projections made in ADO April 2023.The growth forecast for 2023 is thus kept at 5.0%,and for 2024 at 4.5%.Forecasts for Taipei,China are adjusted down for 2023 and slightly up for 2024.The economy shrank by 2.9%year on year in Q1 2023 as exports plunged by 10.8%with a continued slump in demand for electronics.Meanwhile,imports fell by just 4.0%,such that net exports pulled down growth by 5.4 percentage points.Investment fell by 3.2%as low capacity utilization and higher interest rates weighed on firms appetite for investment.On the positive side,private consumption grew by 6.5%as relaxed COVID-19 restrictions continued to boost the economy.With Q1 weaker than expected and global demand still faltering,the forecast for 2023 is revised down substantially to 1.5%.The projection for 2024 is revised up marginally to 2.7%,the rebound reflecting recovery in global demand.Growth this year in the ROK is projected to be slower than previously predicted.The economy slowed from 1.3%year on year in Q4 2022 to 0.8%in Q1 2023.Inertia in information technology and minimal positive spillover from economic recovery in the PRC caused exports to shrink by 3.0%year on year in Q1.In the first 5 months of 2023,exports to the PRC shrank,dragging all exports down by 13.6%year on year and semiconductor exports down by 39.4%.Private consumption and investment are expected to remain weakened in 2023 by high interest rates and a sluggish housing market,but then improve in 2024.Hong Kong,China has its growth forecast raised for 2023 and lowered for 2024.Marked upward revision of the forecast for this year from 3.6%to 4.7%reflects an unexpectedly strong rebound in Q1.Inbound tourism is now expected to recover quickly as pandemic-related disruption to transportation and handling capacity gradually fades.Continued improvement in economic conditions and prospects,including recovery in the PRC,should further boost consumption and domestic demand despite drag from tight financial conditions.On the downside,slower growth in advanced economies will continue to weigh on external demand.While normalizing external and domestic conditions will underpin continued recovery in 2024,the growth forecast is revised down to 3.3%primarily to accommodate base effects.Inflation forecasts for East Asia are sharply down to 1.3%in 2023 and slightly higher at 2.1%in 2024.Average consumer price inflation in the PRC was muted in the first half of this year at 0.7%.Reflecting softer global commodity prices and weaker-than-anticipated domestic demand,inflation is now forecast 2024.The forecast for regional inflation in 2023 is downgraded to 3.6%as the PRC drives a downward revision for East Asia,as does Indonesia for Southeast Asia.With interest rates in the US and other advanced economies likely to shape regional growth,upside and downside risks to the outlook are in balance.If inflation is tamed more quickly than currently expected in the advanced economies,the authorities there will likely adopt a more dovish monetary policy,which would support growth in the region.On the other hand,the regional outlook could be dented by an array of immediate and emerging challenges.Financial stability risks remain elevated,and fragility in banks and other financial institutions requires continued monitoring,particularly in economies with high obligations denominated in foreign currency and domestic debt in such highly leveraged sectors as households,construction,and property development.Some regional economies with high credit risk,poor institutional frameworks,or weak macroeconomic fundamentals are especially exposed to interest rate risks.Uncertainty persists over the Russian invasion of Ukraine,and any escalation there could renew energy and food security challenges and rekindle inflation.Finally,changing weather patterns,including a return of El Nio disruption this year,may have macroeconomic consequences.Growth and Inflation Outlook by SubregionEast AsiaThe growth forecast for East Asia as a whole is unchanged at 4.6%in 2023,slowing to 4.2%in 2024.GDP growth projections for the PRC are sustained as recent developments offset one another and stay consistent,on balance,with ADO April 2023 forecasts.Downward revisions to 2023 projections for the ROK and Taipei,China to accommodate weak global demand are offset by an upward revision for Hong Kong,China following surprisingly strong growth there in Q1.PRC growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are maintained.Economic activity bounced back in Q1 2023 with servicesespecially contact services such as hospitality,catering,and transportationparticularly strong.Despite weakness in key indicators including retail sales and fixed asset investment,growth in Q2 is expected to pick up further on a base effect.Growth in manufacturing investment is expected to moderate in line with cooling exports,while that of infrastructure in
