GSMA：5G的社会经济效益.pdf
Socio-Economic Benefits of 5G The importance of low-band spectrum March 2023GSMAThe GSMA is a global organisation unifying the mobile ecosystem to discover,develop and deliver innovation foundational to positive business environments and societal change.Our vision is to unlock the full power of connectivity so that people,industry,and society thrive.Representing mobile operators and organisations across the mobile ecosystem and adjacent industries,the GSMA delivers for its members across three broad pillars:Connectivity for Good,Industry Services and Solutions,and Outreach.This activity includes advancing policy,tackling todays biggest societal challenges,underpinning the technology and interoperability that make mobile work,and providing the worlds largest platform to convene the mobile ecosystem at the MWC and M360 series of events.We invite you to find out more at Follow the GSMA on Twitter:GSMAGSMA IntelligenceGSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data,analysis and forecasts,and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research.Our data covers every operator group,network and MVNO in every country worldwide from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe.It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available,comprising tens of millions of individual data points,updated daily.GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators,vendors,regulators,financial institutions and third-party industry players,to support strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning.The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself.Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry Authors:Francisco Daniel Amaya Ariza,Economist,GSMA IntelligenceKalvin Bahia,Principal Economist,GSMA IntelligencePublished March 2023ContentsExecutive summary 201 The role of low-band spectrum in deploying 7 5G networks 02 The socio-economic benefits of low-band 5G 1203 Low-band socio-economic benefits by region 1904 Cost-benefit analysis guidelines for assessing 27 sub-1 GHz optionsExecutive summaryThe digital divide widens without sufficient low-band spectrumLow-band spectrum is a driver of digital equality,reducing the gap between urban and rural areas and delivering affordable connectivity.Without sufficient low-band spectrum,the digital divide is likely to widen,and those living in rural areas will be excluded from the latest digital technologies.At the end of 2022,there were already 252 commercial 5G networks in 86 countries around the world,serving more than 1 billion 5G connections.By 2030,more than 5 billion 5G connections are forecast worldwide,driving almost$1 trillion in GDP growth.While 5G is forecast to reach maturity by 2030 in North America,Europe,China and the GCC countries,it will continue to grow in many low-and middle-income countries(LMICs)well into the 2030s.Figure 15G market penetration by region,20222030Note:5G penetration is calculated as the number of 5G connections as a percentage of total population.Connections dif er from subscribers in that a unique subscriber can have multiple connections.Penetration can therefore be greater than 100%.Source:GSMA Intelligence 2030 2025 2022GlobalNorth AmericaGCCAsia Pacifi cCISGreater ChinaEuropeLatin America&CaribbeanMiddle East&North AfricaSub-Saharan Africa13%29%62%46%79%111%22%69%135%4%15%45%0%10%63%42%74%110%13%53%109%1%13%66%1%11%51%0%4%15%2/36Low bands play an important role in achieving the social goals of widespread connectivity by serving two key requirements:Their superior propagation characteristics make them particularly suitable for providing coverage in rural and remote areas,which is important in low-and middle-income countries that have large rural populations.They have superior in-building penetration,providing deep indoor coverage as well as capacity in urban areas.In most countries,the main low bands currently used for 5G are in the 600 MHz and 700 MHz frequencies,while 800 and 900 MHz are used for previous generations.At the end of 2022,operators in almost half the countries where 5G had been launched were utilising the 600 or 700 MHz bands for 5G.Those countries have achieved significantly higher levels of coverage,as well as better 5G availability and indoor quality of service,than those not using 600/700 MHz.Low-band 5G is set to generate$130 billion in GDP in 2030Low-band 5G is expected to drive around$130 billion in economic value in 2030.Half of the impact will come from massive IoT(mIoT).Many existing and future IoT use cases require wide area coverage,in addition to population coverage,which low-band spectrum is best suited to provide.MIoT applications are set to play an important role in digital transformation across a range of economic sectors,including manufacturing,transport,smart cities and agriculture.The rest of the economic impact will be driven by enhanced mobile broadband(eMBB)and fixed wireless access(FWA),as low bands will play a critical role in delivering high-speed broadband connectivity in areas underserved by fixed networks.Figure 3Estimated global impact of low-band 5G on GDP$billionSource:GSMA Intelligence20202026202220282024203020212027202320292025140120100806040200Figure 2Average 5G network population coverage(Q4 2022)Source:GSMA IntelligenceCountries using 600 or 700 MHzCountries not using 600 or 700 MHz73%46%3/36Figure 4Distribution of 5G low-band benefi ts by use casePercentage of total GDP impact in 2030Source:GSMA IntelligenceeMBBSmartphonesWearablesAR/VRFWAHigh-speed broadband in suburban and rural areasMassive IoTComplex automationCollaborative robotsRemote object manipulation25%50%25%Figure 5Estimated global contribution of low-band 5G spectrum to GDP,by sector,2030$billionSource:GSMA Intelligence$4$4$5$10$11$22$24$51Agriculture&miningFinanceTransportation&constructionPublic administrationRetailICTsServicesManufacturingIn addition to the macroeconomic impacts,low-band 5G applications will enhance the social and environmental benefits driven by mobile technology.This includes poverty reduction;improved well-being;access to health,education and financial services;and enabling reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.This is especially important for rural populations most impacted by these challenges but who,in low-and middle-income countries,are 33%less likely to access mobile internet and who experience lower network performance than urban residents.Without adequate amounts of low-band spectrum,increasing capacity to deliver 5G-based use cases will be unaffordable in many rural areas.4/36Latin America and the CaribbeanPercentage of GDP GDP contribution0.11%$9bnRCC*Percentage of GDP GDP contribution0.11%$3bnSub-Saharan AfricaPercentage of GDP GDP contribution0.08%$3bnNorth AmericaPercentage of GDP GDP contribution0.07%$26bnAsia PacificPercentage of GDP GDP contribution0.11%$62bnEuropePercentage of GDP GDP contribution0.08%$26bnMiddle East and North AfricaPercentage of GDP GDP contribution0.08%$4bnSource:GSMA Intelligence*Regional Commonwealth in the Field of Communications,which includes 11 countries from the former Soviet Union.Regional impacts:GDP contribution generated by low-band 5G,20305/36Use of more UHF spectrum for mobile will provide greater value than maintaining it for broadcastingIn many countries,ensuring that operators have sufficient access to low-band spectrum is likely to require additional frequencies below the 700 MHz band frequencies currently used for broadcasting.This study presents the results of a cost-benefit analysis of assigning parts of the UHF band in ITU Region 1(470694 MHz)for mobile use.For a typical country in Europe,the Middle East and Africa,the benefits from assigning 80 MHz of UHF spectrum to mobile would be 624 greater than the costs incurred by the broadcasting sector to maintain the existing number of digital terrestrial television(DTT)programmes.In a scenario where the full 470694 MHz band is assigned to mobile,the benefits are 49 greater for a typical country in Europe and the Middle East.This reflects the growing demand for 5G bandwidth and the general decline in DTT,driven in significant part by the rise of IPTV and on-demand viewing.The results therefore show that the utilisation of more UHF spectrum for mobile use will provide greater value to society than maintaining it for broadcasting.They also highlight the importance of avoiding a uniform approach to low-band spectrum.National governments should pursue the policies that generate the most economic and social value for their citizens.Figure 6Results of cost-benefi t analysis in the UHF bandSource:GSMA Intelligence Benefi ts(NPV,$m)Benefi t-Cost RatioBenefi ts(NPV,$m)Benefi t-Cost RatioSetting 1:Assigning 80 MHz in a typical European country Setting 2:Assigning 224 MHz in a typical European country Setting 3:Assigning 80 MHz in a typical country in the Middle EastSetting 4:Assigning 224 MHz in a typical country in the Middle EastSetting 5:Assigning 80 MHz in a typical African country 2520151050$900$800$700$600$500$400$300$200$100$0An appendix containing all details of the modelling used in this report can be found at: The role of low-band spectrum in deploying 5G networksLow-band spectrum will be a key enabler of digital equality1 See Planning in-building coverage for 5G:from rules of thumb to statistics and AI,Ericsson,2021;Better Indoor Coverage,Better 5G Networks,Huawei 2 Low-Band Spectrum for 5G,Coleago,2022 3 Low-Band Spectrum for 5G,Coleago,2022 Low-band spectrum serves two key requirements for 5G deployments:Its superior propagation characteristics make it particularly suitable for providing coverage in rural and remote areas(see Figure 7).This is especially important in low-and middle-income countries that have large populations living in rural and sparsely populated areas,as network deployments here are much less economically sustainable.Without sufficient low-band spectrum,rural citizens can be excluded from the latest digital technologies.It is better able to penetrate buildings and serve built-up areas,providing deep indoor coverage as well as capacity in urban areas,including locations where people live and work.Depending on the location and residence type,indoor traffic can account for 3070%of total mobile traffic.1 Low bands therefore often account for a greater proportion of traffic than they do capacity(see Figure 8).Assigning sufficient low-band spectrum is critical to addressing long-term demand for 5G in urban as well as rural areas.Source:Low-band spectrum for 5G2Source:Low-band spectrum for 5G3Figure 7Coverage comparison by band Source:Low-Band Spectrum for 5G22100 MHz1800 MHz1.2 distance1.4 distance2.9 distance3.7 distance900 MHz700 MHz2600 MHzFigure 8Sub-1 GHz share of spectrum,capacity and traf cSource:Low-Band Spectrum for 5G3Sub-1 GHzMid-band18%10-20%7%82%93%80-90%Share ofspectrumShare ofcapacityShare oftraf c8/36Countries utilising the 600 and/or 700 MHz band for 5G have achieved faster rollout4 For further discussion of the specific bands available by region,see Low-band spectrum for 5G,Coleago,2022The 700 MHz frequency band has been the most commonly used low band for 5G with the exception of North America,where the 600 MHz band is used.Other bands,such as 800,850 and 900 MHz,are expected to be refarmed for 5G,but in most countries these are still being used for 2G,3G and/or 4G.4 As shown in Figure 9,at the end of 2022,either 600 or 700 MHz was being used for 5G by mobile operators in almost half the countries where 5G has been launched.Figure 10 highlights the importance of assigning these low bands for 5G use.Countries that have deployed 5G using the 600 or 700 MHz bands have achieved significantly higher levels of population coverage than those that have not.Figure 9Countries with 5G networks that utilise the 600 or 700 MHz bands(Q4 2022)Note:analysis is based on at least one operator actively utilising 600 or 700 MHz frequencies to deliver 5G(whether or not it has been identified for IMT).Source:GSMA IntelligenceLaunched 5G using 600 or 700 MHz Launched 5G without 600 or 700 MHzYet to launch 5GFigure 10Average 5G network population coverage(Q4 2022)Source:GSMA IntelligenceCountries using 600 or 700 MHzCountries not using 600 or 700 MHz73%46%9/36Low bands enable consumers to benefit from a better 5G experience The importance of low-band spectrum for 5G availability is illustrated in Figure 11,which shows that the countries where consumers are more likely to access a 5G signal are also those where they are more likely to connect using low-band frequencies.The analysis highlights in particular the strong performance of the US in terms of 5G availability.Consumers in the US that have a 5G-capable device are more likely to spend most of their time on a 5G network than those in any other country.One reason for this is that operators can use the 600 MHz band.Figure 115G availability and the use of low-band spectrum,Q3 2022Note:5G availability is the proportion of users on 5G-capable devices who spent the majority of their time on a 5G network on their subscriber(SIM)network in Q3 2022.Percentage low band is the proportion of device scans that are carried out using low-band spectrum(in the 600,700,800,850 or 900 MHz frequencies).Source:Ookla Speedtest Intelligence 5G availabilityPercentage low band60%50%40%30%20%10%10%40%20%50%30%60%70%NetherlandsUnited StatesAustraliaDenmarkGreeceChinaPolandBelgiumHungarySwedenAustriaItalyCanadaCzechiaSpainFranceGermanyUnited KingdomPortugalFinlandJapan0%10/36Evidence also shows that low-band frequencies improve user experience,particularly indoors.Figure 12 compares indoor 5G signal strength in the largest cities in Australia,Canada and Japan.Consumers connected using the 700 MHz band in Australia and Japan,and the 600 MHz band in the case of Canada,had a better quality indoor signal than those connecting in the mid-bands.Figure 12Indoor signal strength using low-and mid-band spectrum,Q3 2022Note:analysis based on weighted average Reference Signal Received Power(RSRP)for all consumer scans in Q3 2022 by frequency band in in-building locations in downtown areas in Sydney(Australia),Toronto(Canada)and Tokyo(Japan).Source:Ookla Speedtest Intelligence-100-90-80JapanCanadaAustralia-703.7 GHz700 MHz600 MHz RSRP dBm-86.2-87.6-73.6-91.7-83.8-98.111/3602 The socio-economic benefits of low-band 5GLow bands to account for around$130 billion of economic value in 2030,with 5G expected to drive almost$1 trillion in additional GDPFigure 13Estimated global impact of low-band 5G on GDP$billionSource:GSMA Intelligence202020262022202820242030202120272023202920251401201008060402005 Mobile technology:two decades driving economic growth,GSMA Intelligence,2020The economic benefits of mobile have been quantified in a number of studies.GSMA Intelligence research showed that over the period 20002017,a 10%increase in mobile adoption increased
