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March|2023Pathways to Commercial Liftoff:Clean Hydrogen This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government.Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof,nor any of their employees,makes any warranty,express or implied,or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,completeness,or usefulness of any information,apparatus,product,or process disclosed,or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.Reference herein to any specific commercial product,process,or service by trade name,trademark,manufacturer,or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement,recommendation,or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof.The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof.Pathways to Commercial Liftoff:Clean Hydrogen Comments The Department of Energy welcomes input and feedback on the contents of this Pathway to Commercial Liftoff.Please direct all inquiries and input to liftoffhq.doe.gov.Input and feedback should not include business sensitive information,trade secrets,proprietary,or otherwise confidential information.Please note that input and feedback provided is subject to the Freedom of Information Act.AuthorsAuthors of the Clean Hydrogen Pathway to Commercial Liftoff:Office of Technology Transitions:Hannah MurdochOffice of Clean Energy Demonstrations:Jason MunsterHydrogen&Fuel Cell Technologies Office:Sunita Satyapal,Neha RustagiArgonne National Laboratory:Amgad ElgowainyNational Renewable Energy Laboratory:Michael Penev Cross-cutting Department of Energy leadership for the Pathways to Commercial Liftoff effort:Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations:David Crane,Kelly Cummins,Melissa KlembaraOffice of Technology Transitions:Vanessa Chan,Lucia TianLoan Programs Office:Jigar Shah,Jonah Wagner AcknowledgementsThe authors would like to acknowledge analytical support from Argonne National Laboratory and McKinsey&Company;as well as valuable guidance and input provided during the preparation of this Pathway to Commercial Liftoff from:Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations:Katrina Pielli,Catherine Clark,Jill Capotosto,Todd Shrader,Sarma Kovvali,Eric Miller,Andrew DawsonOffice of Technology Transitions:Stephen Hendrickson,Katheryn(Kate)Scott,Marcos Gonzales Harsha,James Fritz,Edward RiosLoan Programs Office:Ramsey Fahs,Julie Kozeracki,Ed Davis,Dinesh Mehta,Monique Fridell,Mike Reed,Christopher CreedOffice of Policy:Carla Frisch,Steve Capanna,Betony Jones,Elke Hodson,Colin Cunliff,Andrew Foss,Paul Donohoo-Vallett,Chikara Onda,Marie FioriHydrogen&Fuel Cell Technologies Office:Eric Miller,Jesse Adam,Dimitrios Papageorgopoulos,Ned Stetson,Brian Hunter,McKenzie HubertOffice of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy:Alejandro Moreno,Paul Spitsen,Avi Shultz,Becca Jones-Albertus,Michael Berube,Brian Cunningham,Carolyn Snyder,Jay Fitzgerald,Ian RoweOffice of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management:Brad Crabtree,Jen Wilcox,Noah Deich,Mark Ackiewicz,David Alleman,Tim Reinhardt,Robert Schrecengost,Eva RodeznoDirector of the Office of Economic Impact and Diversity:Shalanda Baker,Tony Reames,James StrangeAdvanced Research Projects Agency-Energy:Jack Lewnard,James ZahlerOffice of International Affairs:Julie Cerqueira,Matt ManningOffice of the General Counsel:Alexandra Klass,Avi Zevin,Narayan Subramanian,Brian Lally,Glen DrysdaleOffice of the Chief Financial Officer:Sean JamesAssistant Secretary for Congressional&Intergovernmental Affairs:Becca WardPathways to Commercial Liftoff:Clean Hydrogen Acknowledgements(cont.)Office of Indian Energy Policy and Programs:Wahleah Johns,Albert Petrasek Office of Federal Energy Management Programs:Mary Sotos,Nichole Liebov Advanced Manufacturing Office:Isaac Chan,Paul Syers,Felicia Lucci,Nick Lalena,Emmeline Kao Office of Nuclear Energy:Katy Huff,Alice Caponiti,Jason Marcinkoski,Alison Hahn Assistant Secretary for Electricity:Michael Pesin Office of Science:Harriet Kung,Andy Schwartz,Linda Horton,Chris Fecko,Raul Miranda Solar Energy Technologies Office:Garret Nilsen Science&Energy Tech Teams(SETT):Rachel Pierson,Kelly Visconti Argonne National Lab:Aymeric Rousseau National Renewable Energy Laboratory:Matteo Muratori,Catherine Ledna,Ling TaoPathways to Commercial Liftoff:Clean Hydrogen Table of ContentsExecutive Summary1Chapter 1:Introduction and Objectives6Chapter 2:Current State Technologies and Markets9Section 2.a:Technology landscape9Upstream:Clean hydrogen production10Midstream:Distribution and storage14Downstream:End-uses18Section 2.b:Current projects22Section 2.c:Techno-economics25Chapter 3:Pathways to Commercial Scale31Section 3.a:Dynamics impacting pathways to commercial scale35Production36Midstream38End-uses39Section 3.b:Capital Requirements42Section 3.c:Broader implications of hydrogen scale-up45Supply chain45Socioeconomic48Energy and environmental justice(EEJ)49Section 3.d:Hydrogen and hydrogen-derivative exports52Chapter 4:Challenges to Commercialization and Potential Solutions56Section 4.a:Overview of challenges and considerations along the value chain56Section 4.b:Priority solutions63Chapter 5:Metrics and Milestones68Chapter 6:Modeling Appendix71Table of Figures102References103Pathways to Commercial Liftoff:Clean Hydrogen Purpose of this Report These Pathways to Commercial Liftoff reports aim to establish a common fact base and ongoing dialogue with the private sector around the path to commercial liftoff for critical clean energy technologies.Their goal is to catalyze more rapid andcoordinated action across the full technology value chain.Executive Summary The U.S.clean hydrogen market is poised for rapid growth,accelerated by Hydrogen Hub funding,multiple tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)including the hydrogen production tax credit(PTC),DOEs Hydrogen Shot,and decarbonization goals across the public and private sectors.1,i Hydrogen can play a role in decarbonizing up to 25%of global energy-related CO2 emissions,particularly in industrial/chemicals uses and heavy-duty transportation sectors.iiAchieving commercial liftoff will enable clean hydrogen to play a critical role in the Nations decarbonization strategy.The clean hydrogen market will be accelerated by historic commitments to Americas clean energy economy,including equities in the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act(IIJA).Together,these supply-side incentives can make clean hydrogen cost-competitive with incumbent technologies in the next 35 years for numerous applications.2Hydrogen deployment is an opportunity to provide benefits to communities across America,including quality jobs,climate benefits,and decreased air pollution.As with all new technologies,significant care and attention must be paid during implementation to ensure deployment does not perpetuate existing inequities within the energy system.Clean hydrogen production for domestic demand has the potential to scale from 1 million metric ton per year(MMTpa)to 10 MMTpa in 2030.iii Most near-term demand will come from transitioning existing end-uses away from the current 10 MMTpa of carbon-intensive hydrogen production capacity.If water electrolysis dominates as the production method,up to 200 GW of new renewable energy sources would be needed by 2030 to support clean hydrogen production.3The opportunity for clean hydrogen in the U.S.,aligned with the DOE National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap,is 50 MMTpa by 2050.4,iii Scaling the market will require continuing work on addressing demand-side challenges.For example,scaling midstream infrastructure will drastically lower the delivered cost of hydrogen outside of co-located production and offtake,improving the business case for projects and accelerating uptake of clean hydrogen.Bolstering demand and unlocking long-term offtake will support the current proliferation of hydrogen production project announcements and help those production projects reach final investment decision(FID).1 Defined as having a carbon intensity 4 kg CO2e/kg H22 See Chapters 2 and 3 for examination of breakeven timing for end uses switching from an incumbent technology to clean hydrogen.Note,breakeven for best-in-class projects does not indicate all projects switching to clean hydrogen would see breakeven in the next 3 5 years(see Figures 15 and 27 Modeling Appendices)for evaluate of best-in-class projects vs.a range of projects.3 Assumes equal split of solar and wind GW of installed capacity.Capacity factors are based on NREL Annual Technology Baseline Class 5 onshore wind(45%)and utility solar(27%).Range includes PEM and alkaline electrolyzer efficiency from NREL Hydrogen Analysis(H2A)production model.200 GW represents a high case in which more than 90%of domesticclean hydrogen produced in 2030 is via water electrolysis.Clean power for electrolysis could also come from sources such as nuclear.4 Equivalent to 1/10 current domestic natural gas consumptionPathways to Commercial Liftoff:Clean Hydrogen1 In the present policy environment,commercial liftoff for clean hydrogen is expected to take place in three phases:Near-term expansion(20232026):Accelerated by the PTC,clean hydrogen replaces todays carbon-intensive hydrogen,primarily in industrials/chemicals use cases including ammonia production and oil refining.5This shift will primarily occur at co-located production/demand sites or in industrial clusters with pre-existing hydrogen infrastructure.In parallel,first-of-a-kind(FOAK)projects are expected to break ground,driven by$8B in DOE funding for Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs that will advance new networks of shared hydrogen infrastructure.Industrial scaling(20272034):Hydrogen production costs will continue to fall,driven by economies of scale and R&D.During this period,privately funded hydrogen infrastructure projects will come online.These investments,including the build-out of midstream distribution and storage networks,will connect a greater number of producers and offtakers,reducing delivered cost and driving clean hydrogen adoption in new sectors(e.g.,fuel-cell based transport).At the same time,hydrogen combustion or fuel cells for power could be needed to achieve the Administrations goal of 100%clean power by 2035.6There are a wide range of forecasts denoting hydrogens role in the power sector,whether for high-capacity firm,lower-capacity factor power,or seasonal energy storage see report for more detailed scenarios.Long-term growth(2035+):A self-sustaining commercial market post-PTC expiration will be driven by falling delivered costs due to:7A.Availability of low-cost,clean electricity(for electrolysis),B.Equipment cost declines,C.Reliable and at-scale hydrogen storage,and D.High utilization of distribution infrastructure,including dedicated pipelines that move hydrogen from low-cost production regions to demand clusters.8To achieve profitability post-PTC expiration,cost declines are required over the next 1015 years.Due to hydrogens myriad end uses,capex/opex breakeven will be different depending on end use.Today to 2030,industry expects to see significant cost-downs in electrolyzer capex(e.g.,$760-1000/kW today to forecasted$230400/kW by 2030 for uninstalled alkaline electrolyzers,from$9751,200/kW to$380-450/kW for uninstalled PEM electrolyzers).Low-cost clean hydrogen via electrolysis will also depend on ample availability of low-cost clean electricity($20/MWh)that will need to scale in parallelwith market demand for clean hydrogen.9,10These cost declines translate to a reduction in hydrogen production costs,excluding the PTC,from$36/kg today to$1.502/kg by 2035.These 2035 expected cost-downs are slightly above the DOEs Hydrogen Shot,which sets an ambitious$1/kg by 2031 target based on stretch R&D goals.Depending on type of electrolyzerand availability of high-capacity factor clean energy,some projects may hit the Hydrogen Shot target($1/kg without PTC in 2031),which would further accelerate liftoff.Cost declines for hydrogen delivery will also be critical for transportation end-uses that use hydrogen directly,such as fuel cell powered vehicles.5 Produced with carbon intensity 4 kg CO2e/kg H26 In addition,some private sector plans to co-fire turbines with hydrogen have already been announced7 See Chapter 38 This report refers to hydrogen“distribution”to mean the movement of hydrogen molecules,regardless of scale or mode of movement.9 Based on forecasts from the Bloomberg New Energy Finance&Hydrogen Council for alkaline electrolyzers.Additional assumptions details are included in the appendix.Quoted numbers are for system capex excluding installation costs.10 Note that cost-downs are dependent on more than these factors alone see Chapters 2 and 3 for detail on cost driversPathways to Commercial Liftoff:Clean Hydrogen2 Project and adoption risk will fall as the clean hydrogen value chain matures.Addressing the commercialization challenges below will unlock each subsequent phase of growth:Near-term expansion:The cost of midstream infrastructure will be highly relevant for use cases where supply and demand are not co-located.11Absence of long-term offtake contracts to manage volume/price risk,uncertainty about cost/performance at scale,permitting challenges,and heterogeneous business models could delay financing for FOAK projects.12Electrolyzer supply chains,CO2 distribution and storage infrastructure,and a skilled hydrogen workforce will all face pressure to scale.Industrial scaling:If not resolved earlier,the growth challenges faced above will be exacerbated during industrial scaling.The pace of clean electricity deployment will be a key driver of hydrogen production technology mix.If constrained,reformation with carbon capture and storage(CCS)is expected to dominate(making up to 80%of hydrogen produced in 2050 versus 50%in a high-renewables scenario).13For water electrolysis,availability of clean electricity and bottlenecks in electrolyzer components/raw materials will play a critical role in the pace of growth.If electrolysis projects fail to scale during the IRA credit period,electrolysis may notachieve the necessary learning curves to remain competitive in the absence of tax credits.Each sector converting to clean hydrogen will also have its own opportunities and challenges.For example,fuel cell heavy-duty truck adoption will be highly dependent on the build-out of refueling infrastructure,advancements in fuel cell vehicle technology,certainty of hydrogen supply,and the cost of alternatives(e.g.,diesel,battery electric vehicles and their associated costs of charging infrastructure)and regulatory drivers.On the financing side,perceived credit risk will be high for hydrogen projects while these challenges remain unresolved,delaying timelines for low-cost capital providers to enter the market.Long-term growth:Post-PTC expiration,competitiveness will rely on p
