全球油料作物市场与贸易-41页-WN7.pdf
United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Oilseeds:World Markets and Trade Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA For email subscription,click here to register:https:/ June 2023 Argentina Ramps Up Soybean Imports from Paraguay and Brazil Source:Argentina National Institute of Statistics Due to the severe drought in Argentina,soybean production is down an addition 2.0 million tons this month to 25.0 million,the lowest level in over 2 decades.While production is forecast down 43 percent from 2021/22,crush is only projected to be down 23 percent,mainly due to strong demand from Argentine crushers.Monthly crush has been slower than past years,but crushers have been able to procure soybeans due to“soy dollar”exchange rate policies that incentivized farmer selling earlier in the year and strong imports of soybeans over the past few months.Through the first 4 months of 2023,Argentina has imported 3.0 million tons from neighboring countries,predominantly Paraguay and Brazil,elevating forecast October-September imports to a record 8.7 million.Fortunately for Argentine crushers,there are ample exportable supplies in neighboring countries.Typically,Paraguay is the largest supplier of soybeans to Argentina and has already shipped a record 2.6 million tons between January-April 2023.Paraguay exportable supplies are up this year due to a more than doubled crop from last years drought,reduced exports to Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine,and reduced import demand from Brazil.Likewise,calendar year exports from Brazil through May are at an all-time high due to record production.In addition to Paraguay and Brazil,Argentina is also importing soybeans at a record pace from Bolivia,who has not traditionally been a significant exporter of soybeans.Growing production and Argentine demand have boosted 2023 exports through April 2023 above 130,000 tons.Uruguay is traditionally a minor soybean supplier to Argentine crushers but will have limited exportable supplies this year as production has also been decimated by drought.While it is highly atypical,the United States shipped 2.0 million tons to Argentina in 2018/19 during a previous drought,however,record supplies in Brazil reduce the likelihood that Argentina will need to source soybeans outside of South America to satisfy crush demand.02468102017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23Million MTOct-Sep Marketing YearArgentina Soybean ImportsOct-AprMay-Sep0.01.02.03.0Paraguay(Jan-Apr)Brazil(Jan-May)Million MTSoybean Exports to Argentina201820192020202120222023 MARKET FEATURES Thailand Palm Oil Exports Up in 2022/23 Thailand is now forecast as the third largest exporter of palm oil in 2022/23 with shipments forecast at 900,000 tons.Exports from Thailand account for less than 2 percent of global palm oil trade but have increased in recent years on growing shipments to India.So far,Thailand has accounted for 10 percent of India palm oil imports in 2022/23,up from just 1 percent in 2019/20.The increase in Thailand-sourced palm oil started in 2021/22,a year when Malaysia and Indonesia had challenges getting domestic production to export markets.The problems faced by these countries palm industry enabled Thailand to capture 10 percent market share in India in 2021/22 and,given exports to date,this market share appears stable in 2022/23.Thailand palm oil exports in 2023/24 are forecast to fall as Thailand is expected to utilize more palm oil domestically,consistent with the Government of Thailands priority to maintain ample cooking oil supplies and the resumption of a firm B7 blending mandate for biodiesel.Over the last 2 years,Thailand has varied their blending mandate for biodiesel due to high prices for palm oil.The stated policy is a return to B7 blending,but if prices of palm oil rise to levels seen in 2021/22,the mandate may change to a lower target rate to ensure ample cooking oil supplies.0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5Million MTThailand Palm Oil Production and Exports ExportsProductionForeign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 June 2023Global Market Analysis EXPORT PRICES Soybean export prices were pressured downward in May on favorable oilseed crop prospects,subdued demand from major importers,and declining energy prices.Brazil soybeans continue to trade at a discount on the global market,but U.S.and Argentina prices decreased at a faster rate in May,narrowing the gap.Global soybean meal prices continued to fall from their rally earlier this year,again largely driven by ample supplies,particularly from Brazil,where crush exceeded market expectations.Palm oil prices fell on an abundance of exportable supplies,trading at a slight discount to South America soybean oil in May.U.S.soybean oil prices remained less competitive on the global market due to high domestic demand.PROJECTION FOR 2023/24 Global 2023/24 oilseed production forecast is unchanged at 671 million tons as reductions in China sunflowerseed,Australia rapeseed,and Malaysia palm kernel are fully offset by gains for EU rapeseed and U.S.cottonseed.Oilseed exports are lowered due to reduced Australia rapeseed exports.Global vegetable oil trade is slightly lower on reduced Argentina soybean oil and lower Malaysia palm oil exports.Global meal exports are down slightly on reductions in Argentina and EU soybean meal and Malaysia palm kernel meal exports.Global oilseed stocks are up more than 1 million tons,primarily on larger Brazil and U.S.soybean stocks.The projected U.S.season-average farm price for soybeans is unchanged at$12.10 per bushel.PROJECTION FOR 2022/23 Global 2022/23 oilseed production is forecast at 627 million tons,unchanged from May.A larger Brazil soybean crop,China rapeseed crop,and Argentina sunflowerseed crop mostly offset lower Argentina soybean and China sunflowerseed production.Oilseed trade is up slightly on higher Argentina soybean and Australia rapeseed exports more than offsetting lower U.S.soybean and Ukraine sunflowerseed exports.Global oilseed crush is down as reductions in Argentina soybean crush are only partially offset by higher China rapeseed and Brazil soybean crush.Global vegetable oil trade is down this month as reductions to Malaysia palm oil and Argentina and EU soybean oil exports are only partially offset by higher exports in Brazil soybean oil,Thailand palm oil,and Ukraine sunflowerseed oil.Global meal trade is up marginally this month as higher India rapeseed meal and Brazil,India,and U.S.soybean meal exports offset lower Argentina soybean meal exports.The projected U.S.season-average farm price for soybeans is unchanged at$14.20 per bushel.Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 June 2023Global Market Analysis May 2023 Soybean Export Prices U.S.Gulf FOB Argentina Up River FOB Brazil Paranagua FOB May Avg Price$538/ton$527/ton$475/ton Change vs April -$47/ton -$39/ton -$19/ton Source:International Grains Council.All prices are FOB:U.S.Gulf,Argentina Up River,and Brazil Paranagua.May 2023 Soybean Meal Export Prices U.S.Gulf FOB Argentina Up River FOB Brazil Paranagua FOB May Avg Price$483/ton$478/ton$466/ton Change vs April -$45/ton -$23/ton -$23/ton Source:International Grains Council.All prices are FOB:U.S.Gulf,Argentina Up River,and Brazil Paranagua.Source:International Grains Council.All prices are FOB:U.S.Gulf,Argentina Up River,and Brazil Paranagua.410450490530570610650690730US$/tonSOYBEAN EXPORT PRICESArgentina(Up River)Brazil(Paranagua)U.S.(Gulf)350400450500550600650US$/tonSOYBEAN MEAL EXPORT PRICESArgentina(Up River)Brazil(Paranagua)U.S.(Gulf)Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 June 2023Global Market Analysis May 2023 Soybean and Palm Oil Export Prices U.S.Gulf FOB Argentina Up River FOB Brazil Paranagua FOB Indonesia Palm Oil Malaysia Palm Oil May Avg Price$1,177/ton$920/ton$913/ton$913/ton$886/ton Change vs April -$87/ton -$47/ton -$40/ton -$96/ton -$110/ton Source:International Grains Council;all prices are FOB:U.S.Gulf,Argentina Up River,Brazil Paranagua.2023/24 OUTLOOK CHANGES(All figures are in thousand metric tons)Country Commodity Attribute Previous Current Change Reason Argentina Meal,Soybean Exports 24,700 24,300-400 Lower exportable supplies on reduced crush Australia Oilseed,Rapeseed Exports 4,500 4,000-500 Reduced exportable supplies European Union Meal,Soybean Exports 850 700-150 Increased domestic supplies of other protein meals Oilseed,Rapeseed Imports 5,550 5,100-450 Increased domestic production India Oil,Palm Imports 9,200 9,000-200 Reduced global palm oil supplies Malaysia Meal,Palm Kernel Exports 2,400 2,250-150 Reduced production outlook Oil,Palm Exports 16,900 16,700-200 7009001,1001,3001,5001,7001,9002,100US$/tonSOYBEAN AND PALM OIL EXPORT PRICESArgentina(Up River)Soy OilBrazil(Paranagua)Soy OilU.S.(Gulf)Soy OilIndonesia Palm OilMalaysia Palm OilForeign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 June 2023Global Market Analysis 2022/23 OUTLOOK CHANGES(All figures are in thousand metric tons)Country Commodity Attribute Previous Current Change Reason Argentina Meal,Soybean Exports 22,200 21,100-1,100 Lower exportable supplies on reduced crush Oil,Soybean Exports 3,950 3,750-200 Oilseed,Soybean Exports 3,300 3,800 500 Strong May exports Oilseed,Soybean Imports 8,300 8,700 400 Trade pace and lower soybean production Australia Oilseed,Rapeseed Exports 6,300 6,500 200 Trade pace and strong demand from the EU Brazil Meal,Soybean Exports 21,400 21,650 250 Increased exportable supplies on higher crush Oilseed,Soybean Imports 500 250-250 Weak trade pace and record domestic supplies Egypt Meal,Soybean Imports 275 475 200 Trade pace European Union Oilseed,Rapeseed Imports 6,700 6,900 200 Trade pace Oilseed,Sunflowerseed Imports 2,300 2,100-200 Trade pace India Meal,Rapeseed Exports 1,000 1,400 400 Strong April exports Meal,Soybean Exports 1,450 1,700 250 Oil,Sunflowerseed Imports 2,100 2,300 200 Trade pace Iran Meal,Soybean Imports 1,200 900-300 Trade pace Malaysia Oil,Palm Exports 16,300 16,000-300 Reduced production outlook Ukraine Oilseed,Sunflowerseed Exports 2,550 2,350-200 Trade pace United States Meal,Soybean Exports 12,519 12,701 182 Reduced Argentina competition Oilseed,Soybean Exports 54,839 54,431-408 Strong South America export competition in May Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 June 2023Global Market Analysis ENDNOTES REGION DEFINITIONS North America:Canada,Mexico,the United States Central America:Belize,Costa Rica,El Salvador,Guatemala,Honduras,Nicaragua,Panama Caribbean:Cuba,Dominican Republic,Haiti,Jamaica,Trinidad and Tobago South America:Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Ecuador,Guyana,Paraguay,Peru,Suriname,Uruguay,Venezuela EU:Austria,Belgium/Luxembourg,Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,Czech Republic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Ireland,Italy,Latvia,Lithuania,Malta,Netherlands,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Slovakia,Slovenia,Spain,and Sweden.Effective January 1,2021,the separation of the United Kingdom(UK)from the European Union(EU)was complete,including trade between both entities.Starting in May 2021 with the release of 2021/22 data,grain PSDs reflect EU27(shown in the PSD system as“European Union”)and UK separately.Beginning with the release of 2021/22 data,historical data for both EU27 and the UK are provided for 5 years(2016/17 through 2020/21).Other Europe:Albania,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Former Yugoslavia,Gibraltar,Iceland,North Macedonia,Montenegro,Norway,Serbia,Switzerland,United Kingdom Former Soviet Union:Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Moldova,Russia,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,Ukraine,Uzbekistan Middle East:Bahrain,Iran,Iraq,Israel,Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,Saudi Arabia,Syria,Turkey,United Arab Emirates,and Yemen North Africa:Algeria,Egypt,Libya,Morocco,Tunisia Sub-Saharan Africa:all African countries except North Africa East Asia:China,Hong Kong,Japan,South Korea,North Korea,Macau,Mongolia,Taiwan South Asia:Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhutan,India,Nepal,Pakistan,Sri Lanka Southeast Asia:Brunei,Burma,Cambodia,Indonesia,Laos,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,Vietnam Oceania:Australia,Fiji,New Zealand,Papua New Guinea Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 June 2023Global Market Analysis OTHER NOTES Marketing Years(MY):MY refers to the 12-month period at the onset of the main harvest,when the crop is marketed(i.e.,consumed,traded,or stored).The year first listed begins a countrys MY for that commodity(2022/23 starts in 2022);except for oilseeds in certain Southern Hemisphere countries,where the second year begins the MY(2022/23 starts in 2023).For a complete list of local marketing years,please see the FAS website(https:/apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/):go to Reports,Reference Data,and then Data Availability.Stocks:Unless otherwise stated,stock data are based on an aggregate of differing local marketing years and should not be construed as representing world stock levels at a fixed point in time.Consumption:World totals for consumption reflect total utilization,including food,seed,industrial,feed,and waste;as well as differences in local marketing year imports and local marketing year exports.Consumption statistics for regions and individual countries,however,reflect food,seed,industrial,feed,and waste only.Trade:All PSD tables are balanced on the different local marketing years.Oilseeds HS Codes Seed Meal Oil Soybeans 1201 2304,230250,120810 1507 Peanuts Unshelled:120210,120241 Shelled:120220,120242,120230,200811XX1 2305 1508 Copra 1203 230650 151311,151319 Rapeseed 1205 230640,230641,230649 1514 Sunflowerseed 1206 230630 151211,151219 Palm Kernel 120710 230660 151321,151329 Cottonseed 120720,120721,120729 230610 151221,151229 Palm 1511 Olive 1509,1510 Fish 230120 1 Peanut butter is found at the 8-or 10-digit level and varies by reporting country.Argentina and India do not report peanut butter trade.The Global Commodity Analysis Division,Global Market Analysis,Foreign Agricultural Service,USDA,Washington,DC 20250 prepared this publication.Information is gathered from official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials,reports of U.S.agricultural attachs and Foreign Service officers,office research,and related information.Further information may be obtained by writing the Division.Note:For further details on world oilseeds production,please see World Agricultural Production.This publication is available in its entirety on the Internet via the Foreign Agricultural Service Home Page.The address is:http:/www.fas.usda.gov Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 June 2023Global Market Analysis Questions may be directed to:Agata Kingsbury (202)869-9047 Agata.Kingsburyusda.gov Tim ONeil (202)235-7577 Timothy.ONeilusda.gov Gretchen Kuck (202)572-5962 Gretchen.Kuckusda.gov Luke Cummings (202)777-9015 Luke.Cummingsusda.gov To download the tables in the publication,go to the Production,Supply,and Distribution Database(PSD Online):(http:/apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx),scroll down to Reports,and click the plus sign+next to Oilseeds.The Foreign Agricultural Serv
