世界能源展望2023-16页-WN7.pdf
2023Energy PerspectivesGlobal macroeconomic and energy market outlookWE BUILD TOO MANY WALLSAND NOT ENOUGH BRIDGESSir Isaac Newton2|Energy Perspectives 2023Table of contents 3The scenarios 4 Key insights from Energy Perspectives 2023 7Appendix 12Key figures 13 Units and definitions 14Acknowledgements and disclaimer 15 Photo credits Page 3 Johanna Montoya,UnsplashPage 4 Joshua Kettle,UnsplashPage 5 Fabio Comparelli,UnsplashPage 5 Marcus Loke,UnsplashPage 7 Jonatan Pie,UnsplashPage 12 Jan Kopriva,UnsplashPage 14 Zbynek Burival,UnsplashPage 15 Ole Jrgen Bratland,EquinorTable of contentsEnergy Perspectives 2023|3 THE SCENARIOS 4|Energy Perspectives 2023Energy Perspectives 2023|5 The scenarios Energy Perspectives presents two scenarios for global development and future global energy markets:Walls and Bridges.A sharp dichotomy is emerging between the slow,incremental change that characterises the energy transition seen today,and the acceleration necessary to achieve the radical changes required to move the world onto a sustainable path The two scenarios encapsulate this dichotomy The future of energy markets is difficult to predict Recent events have shown it is not only the long-term development of macroeconomics and energy markets that are uncertain Covid-19 has only a short-term impact in both scenarios,with China being the last major economy to exit its zero-covid policy this year The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the associated geopolitical tensions have given rise to the reappearance of obstacles to cooperation and existing trade and supply flows which may have long-lasting effects The scenarios start from the world as it is today,where the energy transition has begun but has yet to accelerate to the speed required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement They share near-identical paths up until 2025,at which point they start to diverge Walls shows a pathway of where the world could go if it continues to broadly follow current trends,whilst Bridges illustrates a pathway the world would need to follow to reach the 15C target Both scenarios consider the same set of drivers,ranging from economic growth and technological development to climate policy and geopolitics,and both scenarios recognise the profound systemic change required to put the energy system on a more sustainable track The difference between the two scenarios is the relative force of these drivers and the extent to which they influence the future path of the global energy system after 2025 In short,Walls fails to deliver on the transition needed to reach climate ambitions,whilst Bridges does not Energy Perspectives does not try to predict the future but shows possible future paths for the global energy system based on the choices the world makes,providing a platform for debate and informed decision-making.6|Energy Perspectives 2023Walls Walls signify the abundance of barriers blocking fundamental and accelerated change in the global energy system.Throughout human history,walls have been built to protect us from the things that we fear:intruders,plagues,viruses,the weather,and wild animals Inadvertently,walls exclude us,cut off options and place obstacles in our path Walls shield us,but also form barriers to transition and movement Walls protect,but they also divide.The Walls scenario builds on current trends in market,technology and policy,assuming them to continue developing at a slowly accelerating pace in the future Economic growth remains the key driver for growing energy demand,and national governments continue to prioritise short-term economic growth over long-term climate goals Legislation such as the US Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)and the EU Green Deal Industrial Plan highlights the return of industrial policies,which may accelerate the energy transition,but may also create market distortions and inefficiencies that make the energy transition more costly Geopolitical tensions in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine lead to long-lasting effects on economic development and government policy,especially in the Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS),the EU and China The energy transition is limited by cooperation and trust,and although climate policies continue to tighten,with momentum driven mainly by the industrialised regions,the scenario does not meet all stated targets and does not move fast enough to satisfy the goals of the Paris Agreement Change is simply not happening fast enough Walls is a story about an energy transition that is slowly accelerating,but that does not reach climate targets However,it is important to note that the changes to the global energy system outlined in Walls are not a given They will still require enormous changes to the foundations of the global energy system Bridges If Walls signify the barriers to change,Bridges represent the overcoming of these barriers and the impetus towards accelerated change.Bridges help us to connect,allowing people to reach places they would not otherwise have been able to reach and achieve things they would not otherwise have been able to achieve Bridges are open-ended and facilitate transition,movement,trade and communication Bridges connect and enable.The Bridges scenario is a normative back-cast constrained by an energy-related CO emissions budget of 445 Gt CO compliant with a 50%probability of no more than a 15C temperature rise*A benign geopolitical landscape is established,supporting renewed cooperation and friendly competition among nations Energy markets become more integrated and technological advancements are shared more readily Climate action remains the key driver,and all regions are under pressure to rapidly phase out fossil fuels,build renewable capacity,improve energy efficiency and make drastic behavioural changes The accelerated transition brings significant changes to the energy system even before 2030 This ambitious scenario serves to illustrate the enormous challenge the world is faced with It is technically within reach,but whether it is also practically and economically achievable,and saleable to voters once all the implications are clear,is open to debate The scenario is not anchored in detailed analytical convictions but rather aims to stimulate discussions around the feasibility of the changes required to limit global warming to 15C by the end of the century*The IPCCs 6th Assessment Report puts the CO budget for 2020-50 period at 500 Gt.This budget is to be shared between emissions in energy,in industrial uses like cement,and in agriculture.In this analysis a budget of 445 Gt is allocated to emissions for energy purposes.KEYINSIGHTSEnergy Perspectives 2023|7 8|Energy Perspectives 2023Energy Perspectives presents two scenarios for economic and energy market development,Walls and Bridges.Walls builds on current energy market trends and energy and climate policies,assuming climate action to progress at a slowly accelerating pace in the future Bridges is a normative back-cast complying with the 15C carbon budget,demonstrating the enormous and sustained efforts required to reach this target024681012141620102020203020402050WallsBridgesHistoryGlobal fossil fuel demandGtoeGlobal fossil fuel demandGtoeKey insights from Energy Perspectives 2023The world will continue to need energy,but will become more energy efficient Historically,between 1990-2020 energy intensity improved by 12%per yearTowards 2050,the energy intensity declines by 19%per year in Walls and 32%per year in Bridges with electrification being the key enablerPeak demand for fossil fuels arrives before 2030 In Walls,the peak occurs in 2026,followed by a gentle downward trajectory In Bridges,fossil fuel demand declines at a rapid pace after 2025 By 2050,all remaining fossil fuel use is either fully abated or compensated by carbon removalWALLSBRIDGESSource:IEA,Oxford Economics Limited 2023(history),Equinor(projections)GDPGDP20502020Energy demandEnergy demandWallsBridgesHistorySource:IEA(history),Equinor(projections)Gas demand will continue to grow in Walls,but declines sharply in Bridges In Walls,gas demand peaks in 2039 and is around 10%higher than todays level in 2050 In Bridges,gas demand peaks in 2025 and falls to around a third of todays level in 2050 Energy consumption shifts towards electricity In Walls,electrification accelerates steadily towards 2050,increasing its share by half In Bridges,a massive acceleration happens before 2030 By 2050,the share exceeds 50%,two and a half times as large Wind and solar photovoltaics(PV)capacity show significant growth compared to 2020 levels In Walls,wind capacity is five times greater,and solar PV capacity nine times greater in 2050 compared with today In Bridges,wind capacity is eight times greater,and solar PV capacity 13 times greater in 2050 compared with today 01234520102020203020402050Global gas demandThousand BcmWallsBridgesHistory0481216WallsBridgesWallsBridgesSolar PVWind205020302020Wind&solar PV capacityThousand GWGlobal gas demand Thousand Bcm Wind and solar PV capacity Thousand GW 0102030405020102020203020402050Electricity share of energy consumption%WallsBridgesHistoryElectricity share of total final energy consumption%Energy Perspectives 2023|9 Source:IEA(history),Equinor(projections)Source:IEA(history),Equinor(projections)Source:IEA(history),Equinor(projections)Electrification and hydrogen,including its derivatives will contribute to the decarbonisation of transport In both scenarios,electric vehicles replace internal combustion engines in road transport but to a different extent In Bridges,further decarbonisation is achieved by increasing the use of hydrogen,including its derivatives in marine and air transportCarbon capture,utilisation and storage(CCUS)will play an essential role in the decarbonisation of the power and industry sectors In Walls,CCUS on both coal and gas starts to accelerate after 2030 In Bridges,there is massive growth in CCUS even before 2030,and after 2030 there is extensive contributions from carbon removal technologies and practices01234567WallsBridgesWallsBridgesCoalCCUSOilGasNBS*DAC*BECCS*205020302020Carbon captured and stored annuallyGt COCarbon removal01020304020152020202520302035204020452050Global energy-related CO2 emissions,after carbon removalGt COWallsBridgesHistory01234WallsBridgesWallsBridgesOilGasBiomassHydrogenElectricity205020302020Transport fuel mixGtoeCarbon captured and stored annually Gt COGlobal energy-related CO emissions,after carbon removal Gt COTransport fuel mix GtoeSource:IEA(history)Equinor(projections)Source:IEA(history)Equinor(projections)*Nature-based solutions(NBS),Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage(BECCS),Direct air capture(DAC)Current net zero commitments are not enough to avoid global warming above 1.5C In Walls,the 15C budget is exhausted by 2033 In Bridges,current commitments are met,and further commitments are made that enable emissions to remain within the 15C carbon budget with the help of carbon removal technologies Source:IEA(history)Equinor(projections)10|Energy Perspectives 2023Energy Perspectives 2023|11 The demand for minerals needed to support the energy transition is set to increase significantly In Walls,the demand*for minerals doubles by the early 2030s compared with the average annual demand from 2016 to 2020In Bridges,demand peaks by 2035 and then drops towards 2040 driven by mineral intensity improvements and a slowdown in new annual capacity additions0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Ag(Solar)Te(Solar)Nd(Wind)Dy(Wind)CuSolar PV and windOther sectorsDemand exceeding current productionSolar and wind demand for selected mineral in 2040 as share of 2022 annual production2022 production=100%2016-20WallsBridges2016-20WallsBridges2016-20WallsBridges2016-20WallsBridges2016-20WallsBridges2022 production levelSolar PV and wind demand for selected minerals in 2040 as share of 2022 annual productionMineral demand*Indexed 2016-20(average demand)=1Source:Equinor*Mineral demand needed to support annual capacity additions of solar PV and wind in power generationFor some minerals,current production levels are insufficient to meet future demandIn both Walls and Bridges,increased mineral demand*will challenge supply,with the future annual demand for certain minerals exceeding current production levelsFor future mineral demand and supply to balance,production levels must increase or innovation must drive demand down Source:USGS,Wang et al*,Equinor*Wang et al.(2023)Future demand for electricity generation materials under different climate mitigation scenarios,Joule 7,309-332.Elsevier Inc.The mineral value chains are complex Geopolitics,specialised supply chains,price hikes,as well as environmental,social and governance issues are all challenging future supply of mineralsInnovation will be an important enabler to secure future mineral reserves and ease demand for those in short supply or ethically compromised CO2 intensityMineralsGeopoliticsInnovationSustainabilityPrice increasesWatershortageSpecialisedsupply chainsHuman rightsWaste&contaminationSource:Equinor012342016-20(avg.)2030204020302040Mineral and REE demand*Indexed 2016-20(average demand)=1WallsBridgesHistoryAPPENDIX12|Energy Perspectives 2023Energy Perspectives 2023|13 Key figures Units Walls Bridges Walls BridgesGlobal GDP 2015-USD trillion 814 1580 1580 22 22 North America,Europe,Industrial Asia Pacific 2015-USD trillion 490 759 747 15 14 China 2015-USD trillion 148 363 370 30 31 Rest of World 2015-USD trillion 176 458 463 32 33Global energy intensity-indexed to 2020 100 554 380-19 -32Global population billion 78 97 97 07 07Global energy demand Gtoe 1377 1481 1015 02-1Coal Gtoe 366 169 027-25-83Oil Gtoe 409 37 102 -03-45Gas Gtoe 321 354 099 03 -38 Nuclear Gtoe 07 104 098 14 11New renewables Gtoe 036 273 528 70 93Oil excl biofuels mbd 889 814 243-03-42Gas Bcm 3,866 4,256 1,197 03 -38 Global energy-related CO emissions billion tonnes 314 212 11-13 -107North America billion tonnes 52 27 02 -22-108 Europe billion tonnes 34 10 00 -38-159China billion tonnes 102 45 01 -27-151India billion tonnes 21 30 01 12-89World CO emissions from fossil fuel use removed by CCUS Mt 15 858 1,964 144 176 World CO emissions removed from atmosphere Mt 0 0 4,300 -Global light duty vehicles(LDVs)fleet million 1,375 1,614 1,368 05 00LDVS oil demand Mtoe 987 542 29 -20-111LDVs biofuel demand Mtoe 65 46 1 -12-140LDVs electricity demand Mtoe 2 197 292 169 184202020502020-2050growth per year(%),CAGRDefinitions Energy demand and consumption History:1990-2020 Projection:2021-2050Regions There are 12 regions modelled Industralised:European Union,Industralised Asia Pacific,North America,Other Europe Emerging:Africa,China,CIS(Commonwealth of Independent States),India,Middle East,Other Americas,Other Asia Pacific,Southeast Asia Sectors There are 8 sectors modelled Industry,residential,other stationary,transport,non-energy,power&heat,hydrogen,other transformationUnitsCoal Btce billion tonnes of coal equivalent Oil mbd million barrels per day Gas Bcm billion cubic metr
