墨西哥经济展望-18页-WN7.pdf

Mexicos Economic OutlookLast update:July 5th,2023C2-Internal NatixisTable of ContentsMacroeconomic FundamentalsPublic FinancesDebt ManagementState Owned EnterprisesC2-Internal NatixisGross Domestic Product and Employment1/Series with seasonal adjustment.Source:Mexican Institute of Social Security.3Formal Employment 1/Monthly change,Thousand jobsGDPQuarterly%change,Contribution ppEconomic Activity Index(IGAE)Index Jan-21=100Source:INEGI.Source:INEGI.In 1Q23 Mexican economy grew 1.0%,continuing to exhibit pockets of strengths.The increase in employment wasdriven by manufacturing and service sectors.1.0-2-10123IIIIIIIVI20222023Private cons.Public cons.Private invest.Public invest.Net exportsTotal106.4959799101103105107109Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23AgriculturalIndustrialServicesTotal75.4-20020406080100120140160180May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23ManufacturingServicesFarmExtractiveConstructionUtilitiesTradeTransportTotalC2-Internal NatixisPrivate ConsumptionSupermarket SalesIndex Jan-21=100Source:INEGI.Source:ANTAD.Private ConsumptionIndex Jan-21=100As of February 2023,data showed strong growth consumption,buoyed by imported goods.Supermarket anddepartment stores sales recovered their pre-pandemic levels.Gasoline Spending and Electricity DemandIndex Jan-20=100Source:SHCP.4113.095100105110115120125130135Jan-21Jun-21Nov-21Apr-22Sep-22Feb-23TotalImported GoodsGoods and Services106.398.695100105110May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23TotalSame Stores101.396.780859095100105110May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23Electricity DemandGasoline SpendingC2-Internal NatixisManufacturing activity showed relative weakness,while industrial production continues posting sizeable gainsexplained by mining activity.Non-oil exports recorded a setback in April.Industrial Production and ExportsSource:IMEF.Source:INEGI.Non-oil ExportsAnnual%change,Contribution ppSource:INEGI.Industrial ProductionAnnual growth,%PMI SurveyIndex550.451.346485052545658Jun-21Oct-21Feb-22Jun-22Oct-22Feb-23Jun-23ManufacturingNon-manufacturing1.63.20246810Apr-22Aug-22Dec-22Apr-23TotalManufacturing8.6-20-100102030May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Other manufacturesAutomotiveExtractiveFarmExportsC2-Internal NatixisIn 2022,Mexico stood as the 9threcipient of Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)inflows,and its gross fixed investment asa percentage of GDP was one of the highest among peers.During 1Q23,FDI was equivalent to 18.64 billion dollars.Foreign Direct InvestmentSource:OECD.1/Preliminary figures.Source:Mexicos Ministry of Economy.Gross Fixed Investment%of GDP,Average 2022Source:OECD.FDI Towards MexicoBillion dollars 1/Top 10 Major FDI Recipients,2022Billion dollars635.30100200300ESPMEXFRASWEINDCANAUSBRACHNUSA21.2010203040ZAFARGCRIBRACOLMEXCHLINDIDN18.640510152025IIIIII IVIIIIII IVIIIIII IVI2020202120222023C2-Internal NatixisInflation and Foreign ReservesSource:OECD.Source:Bloomberg.Source:World Bank.Foreign ReservesBillion dollarsGeneral Inflation,May-23Annual growth,%Exchange Rate,Jun-23Change vs.Dec-20,%In May 2023,the Mexican peso performed well,despite Mexicos high inflation figure.Foreign exchange reservesincreased in 2022 and remain above other emerging economies.7201.1050100150200250199219982004201020162022MexicoArgentinaChileIndonesiaMalaysiaTrkiye12.6-80-60-40-20020ArgentinaTrkiyeSouth AfricaColombiaHungaryMalaysiaChileIndiaIndonesiaPeruBrazilUruguayMexicoDepreciation5.80255075100125CHNCANBRAIDNUSAINDMEXG-20DEUZAFTURARGC2-Internal NatixisMedium and Long-term Inflation ExpectationsHeadline inflation peaked in September 2022,and has been decelerating since then.In this context,the Bank ofMexico began raising interest rates in June 2021,in 2022 it has increased the interest rate by 575 basis points.8Source:Citibanamex survey,as of June 20th,2023.Inflation Expectations for Next 12 Months%Inflation Expectations for Next 5 Years%Source:Citibanamex survey,as of June 20th,2023.4.5201234567Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23RangeMedianUpper LimitLower LimitBanxico target:3.0%3.7301234567Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23RangeMedianUpper LimitLower LimitBanxico target:3.0%C2-Internal NatixisExternal Financing Needs and Banking SectorMexican Banking System%Source:World Bank,International Debt Statistics.Source:Banco de Mxico and CNVB.External Financial Requirements%of International Reserves,2021Total external financing requirements are relatively contained.International reserves along with stabilization fundsand a flexible credit line provide buffers against external shocks.The banking system is well-regulated and well-capitalized above international regulatory standards(Basel III).Mexicos Financial BuffersBillion dollarsSource:Banco de Mxico,SHCP,IMF,FED and US Departmentof the Treasury.947.0-4004080120160ARGTURZAFMEXIDNCHNTHAPublic Sector Debt Serv.Short-term DebtCA DeficitTotal202.547.09.04.6263.1050100150200250300InternationalReservesFlexiblecredit lineUStreasury lineStabilizationfundsTotal19.22.100612182430Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Capitalization IndexNon-performing loansBasel III RequirementC2-Internal NatixisMexicos Risk MeasuresMexicos risk indicators remain stable,improving investors confidence.Sovereign holding by foreign investors isperforming well,despite the international market volatility.101/Figures include all government values in effect at thedate of consultation.Source:Banco de Mxico.1/Latest data as of May 31st,2023.Source:Bloomberg.1/UST 10-year bond.Latest data as of May 31st,2023.Source:Bloomberg.US Treasury vs Emerging Bonds1/Index,Dec-20=100Foreign Sovereign Holdings1/Index,Dec-20=100Credit Default SwapDec-20 vs.Jun-231/,basis points87.370130190250310370430708090100110120130140150May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23TotalBono MCetesUdibonos(right)112.762102142182222262302Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23BrazilIndiaPeruSouth AfricaColombiaMexico26.7050100150200ColombiaBrazilChileChinaPeruMexicoIndonesiaC2-Internal NatixisTable of ContentsMacroeconomic FundamentalsPublic FinancesDebt ManagementState Owned EnterprisesC2-Internal NatixisSource:IMF,Fiscal Monitor.Historical Balance of the Public Sector Borrowing Requirements1/%of GDPPublic FinancesThe Federal Government remains committed to maintain sound public finances and ensure prudent managementof public debt.Financial cost pressures are contained and do not represent a risk to public finances.e/Estimated.1/BMOS:Banco de Mxico Operating Surplus.Source:SHCP.e/estimated.1/BMOS:Banco de Mxico Operating Surplus.Source:SHCP.Primary Balance%of GDPGeneral Government Gross Debt Forecast,Apr-23%of GDP1249.9010203040506070 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020202120222023 e/wo/BMOS 1/w/BMOS-0.1-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020202120222023 e/wo/BMOS/1w/BMOS55.657.9020406080100120IndonesiaMexicoLatin AmericaEMEsSouth AfricaG20 EMEsArgentinaChinaIndiaBrazil20232028C2-Internal NatixisFederal Governments revenues were lower than the budget program by 156.7 billion pesos(tax revenues excluding fuel excise tax-36.3 bn pesos|non-tax revenues+69.4 bn pesos).Programmable expenditure was lower than the budget program by 186.8 billion pesos.Non-programmable expenditure was 59.4 billion pesos lower than the budget program.Public debt has not exceeded the Congress ceiling implying a sustainable path,the Historical Balanceof the Public Sector Borrowing Requirements(PSBR)amounted to 13,876.0 billion pesos and net publicsector debt stood at 14,011.9 billion pesos.REVENUES EXPENDITUREDEBTPublic Finances,as of May 2023At the end of May,public finances remained in line with the targets set for the year.The budget balance showed alower deficit while the primary budget balance a higher surplus.14C2-Internal NatixisTable of ContentsMacroeconomic FundamentalsPublic FinancesDebt ManagementState Owned EnterprisesC2-Internal NatixisFederal Government Debt BreakdownThe Federal Government has a conservative and solid public debt portfolio to better manage periods of highvolatility that could arise in the global financial markets.Domestic DebtExternal Debt32.5%of GDPas of 1Q2375.5%at a fixed rate7.7yearsaverage maturity7.0%of GDPas of 1Q2320.2yearsaverage maturity100%at a fixed rateFederal Government Debt Statistics15Federal Government Gross Debt Breakdown,1Q231995 vs 2023,%of TotalSource:SHCP.20.782.279.317.802040608010019952023DomesticExternalC2-Internal NatixisSustainable Sovereign BondThe Mexican Government is committed to broaden its investor base through the issuance of sustainable financeinstruments,aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).16In Sep-201/,Mexico became the first country in the world to issue a sustainablesovereign bond2/that were linked to the SDGs,for an amount of EUR 750 million.As part of Mexicos Sustainable Financing Strategy,the Treasury issued a newbenchmark sustainable bond denominated in dollars maturing in 2053.This isthe ninth sustainable bond issued in international financial markets3/.111/Announcement No.071.2/In November 2021 the SHCP released the report:Mexicos SDG Bond:Allocation and Impact Report 2021.3/Announcement No.27.4/IFR Awards 2021.5/Moodys Investors Service.6/Announcement No.24.Source:SHCP,2023.Mexicos innovative instruments and debt management have been recognizedinternationally:For the first time in more than 10 years Mexico was recognized byInternational Financing Review(IFR)with the Niche-Market Bond award4/.Moodys assigned an SQS1 sustainability quality score(excellent)to theGovernment of Mexicos SDG Sovereign Bond Framework5/.In April 2023,Mexico received two international awards for its public debtmanagement and its vision of sustainable development.A total of 22 hasbeen awarded in the last five years6/.C2-Internal NatixisTable of ContentsMacroeconomic FundamentalsPublic FinancesDebt ManagementState Owned EnterprisesC2-Internal NatixisState-owned Enterprises18https:/ pageInvestors toolsLatest publications Investors pageFinancial resultsLatest publications