国际可持续发展研究所-印尼能从南非的公正能源转型进程中学到什么？（英）-2023-WN7.pdf

POLICY BRIEF 2023 International Institute for Sustainable DevelopmentWhat Can Indonesia Learn from South Africas Experience of the Just Energy Transition Process?Anissa Suharsono,Martha MaulidiaJuly 2023Just Energy Transition Partnerships and the Importance of Accelerating Energy Transition Just Energy Transition Partnerships(JETPs)are essentially a financing mechanism agreed between a group of industrialized countries and a developing country,designed to fund a transition of the coal-dependent developing nation away from fossil fuel production and consumption toward low-carbon energy while addressing the social consequences involved.As of May 2023,JETP deals have been announced for South Africa,Indonesia,and Vietnam.In a nation where coal plays an important role in the economy,robust social and economic measures must be taken and included in the JETP plans,as transitioning away from coal will affect a significant portion of the population.Finance provided under the JETP may include grants,loans,and investments,and,as of March 2023,the donor group includes the International Partners Group(IPG)and the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero Working Group.The IPG represents the donor countries,made up of Canada,Denmark,the European Union,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,Norway,the United Kingdom,and the United States.The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero Working Group represents over 550 major financial institutions from 50 countries,such as HSBC and Citibank(Kusuma,2023).The JETP scheme was first announced at the UN Climate Change Conference(COP 26)in November 2021.It was described at the time as a long-term partnership designed to support the Republic of South Africa in decarbonizing its energy systempreventing up to 11.5 gigatonnes of emissions over the next 20 yearsand help the country accelerate its transition from coal to a low-emission,climate-resilient economy.It was launched with a funding commitment of USD 8.5 billion in the first phase of financing,with the comprehensive investment plan made public a few days before COP 27(European Commission,2022).IISD.org 2What Can Indonesia Learn from South Africas Experience of the Just Energy Transition Process?The second JETP deal was announced during the G20 Summit in November 2022.The IPGled by the United States and Japanpledged to mobilize USD 20 billion(around IDR 300 trillion)over the next 35 years to accelerate Indonesias energy transition through early retirement of coal power plants and deployment of renewable energy.The deal appears to herald a dramatic shift in energy policy,setting a new target for renewableswhich will need to account for 34%of the countrys power production by 2030.Indonesia is currently in the process of preparing its comprehensive investment plan.This brief will assess the JETP process South Africa went through 1 year after it was announced to highlight any relevant findings and lessons to assist policy-makers implementing the Indonesian JETP.Process and Organizational Structure of South Africas JETPSince the announcement of the JETP at COP 26 in November 2021,several policy reforms that will benefit and enable the South African JETP have been started or announced.These reforms include the following:an updated Climate Change Bill;proposed changes to electricity sector regulations;release of a Just Transition Framework and a just energy transition investment plan;green hydrogen developments,including a Hydrogen Economy Roadmap;the South African Green finance taxonomy and Sustainability and Climate Change Disclosure Guidance,with the carbon tax rate expected to increase progressively every year;a National Mine Closure Strategy and discussion on South African Renewable Energy Master Plan;further rounds of bids for renewable energy projects are underway,and the licensing threshold for new generation capacity has been raised to 100 MW,opening new ways for private sector investment in renewable energy projects(Presidential Climate Finance Task Team&IPG,2022a,2022b).Collectively,these policy measures aim to reduce barriers to clean energy deployment and to align energy policy with the agreed phase-down of coal generation.Despite the high-level agreement and moves toward policy reform,these reforms are still controversial.The South African JET Investment Plan(JET IP)was developed throughout the course of 2022,and it articulated the need for ZAR 1,48 trillion(USD 98 billion)investment in three priority sectors over a period of 5 years.It is important to note that the JET IP only sets out the guiding principles for implementation of the Just Transition Framework and is not exhaustive of all the transition needs in South Africa.The USD 8.5 billion in the first phase of financing will be spent on the most urgent programs identified under the IP.IISD.org 3What Can Indonesia Learn from South Africas Experience of the Just Energy Transition Process?In the past few years,South Africa has been undergoing the process of electricity sector reform.This reform process is also recognized to be one of the key measures to support the implementation of the JET IP.In the 12 months following the announcement of the JETP (Presidential Climate Finance Task Team&IPG,2022),the president announced several steps in the transformation of the electricity sector,such as removing licensing thresholds for embedded generation to enable private investments in large,utility-scale generation projects;reviewing the Integrated Resource Plan 2019 to reflect the need for additional generation capacity and South Africas climate commitments;reducing designated local content for solar panels from 100%to 35%(The Presidency Republic of South Africa,2023);offering incentives for rooftop solar,developing feed-in tariffs for the purchase of electricity surplus from residential customers,and further work on tax incentives;enhancing the effort to restructure Eskom as well as addressing crime and corruption through a law-enforcement team;using climate funding provided through the JETP to invest in transmission grid and repurpose coal power plants that have reached end of life;establishing a National Energy Crisis Council to strengthen Presidential oversight of delivery against announced reforms.South Africas severe load-shedding due to the ongoing energy crisis is also partly the reason for the establishment of the National Energy Crisis Council(Proctor,2023).The electricity sector reform measures are also broadly aimed at increasing the rate of deployment of new(and,in many cases,privately owned)generation,much of it renewable.However,there are still elements within the government who are opposed to reforms,remaining unconvinced that renewables can replace thermal generators.These elements may continue to seek to undermine or reverse the reforms.As in many countries,in South Africa,there is often a gap between policy and implementation,and not all of these initiatives have translated into practical changes.Organization Structure and RolesChaired by the United Kingdom,the IPG was established to coordinate the partnership announced at COP 26 between its members and the government of South Africa.In February 2022,the Presidential Climate Finance Task Team was formed,and it serves as a counterpart for the IPG.It engages with the IPG to advise Cabinet on the financing packages composition,affordability,and alignment with the regulatory environment.It also coordinates with relevant government departments and the private sector to develop relevant financing mechanisms and facilities to enable international climate finance.IISD.org 4What Can Indonesia Learn from South Africas Experience of the Just Energy Transition Process?Figure 1.South African JETP governance structureSource:European Commission,2022.The JETP secretariat is tasked with providing technical and coordination support to the partnership in a neutral and objective manner.In order to assist with the secretariats work,the Climate Investment Fund Board will provide the support and resources needed.Several consultations covering key issuessuch as the nature of the financial offer,shared understanding in priority areas,JETP IP outline and contents,and the scope and responsibilities of the secretariatwere held in May 2022.They involved the Presidential Climate Finance Task Team,IPG,government focal points,and development finance institutions.These consultations included an assessment of relevant policies and guidelines,preliminary review of investment and policy implications,and mapping development financiers activities and programs that can support the just energy transition.At the same time,the second mission of the Accelerating Coal Transition Investment Programme(funded by the Climate Investment Fund and led by the World Bank Group and The African Development Bank)was held in order to align the program and support the broader JETP.To support the secretariat,JETP has also established five working groups to gather technical expertise and experience in the following areas:finance,implementation,power,green South African CabinetInter-Ministerial Committee(IMC)Just Energy TransitionPresidential Climate FinanceTask Team(PCFTT)Members:Individuals with relevant experienceMandate:Final recommendations for Investment Plan and financing packageInternational Partner Group(IPG)Members:Capitals and local teamsMandate:Financing offer and endorsed Investment PlanJETP SecretariatIndependent team:Coordinating technical working groups,accountable to JET(SA and IPG)Mandate:Coordinate the joint working program of PCFTT and IPG for finalrecommendations of the Investment Plan and financing package,draft the reports,coordinate media engagements of JETPChairIISD.org 5What Can Indonesia Learn from South Africas Experience of the Just Energy Transition Process?hydrogen,and transport.Terms of reference for each working group are still being developed,but they will centre around investment sequencing in relation to South Africas goals and challenges.Highlighted Shortcomings of the South Africa JETP ProcessThe JETP deal may serve as a catalyst for energy transition and could also open the door to more climate funds.However,because it is a new mechanism where all the details are still under development,there is always the risk of the deal failing to deliver on its potential.One of the aspects that must be met in order to fulfill the“just”aspect of the energy transition is to ensure a balance between tackling clean energy issues and delivering a socially just transition.Raising finance simply for energy infrastructure is relatively easy due to the prospect of favourable investment returns,but the same cannot be said about raising finance to support coal workers and communities.Ensuring that JETP programs are able to deliver a just energy transition as well as infrastructure investment is a significant challenge(Halsey,2022).Box 1.The policy implementation gap and the South African JETPThe gap between stated targets and policy objectives and their implementation(the policy implementation gap)is an often-observed phenomena.New initiatives,particularly those that are ambitious and unprecedented,face a tough journey to realization.Three key factors influence the likelihood of delivery;Indonesian policy-makers should consider and,where possible,mitigate these factors in the development of the JETP.1.Shortcomings at the feasibility stage.Policies developed without full understanding of the economic,social,and institutional barriers may prove impossible to implement.To avoid this,transparency and consultation at the design stage are critical.The reported lack of civil society consultation in South Africa may have given rise to policy-making blind spots.2.Misestimation of the political landscape and cross departmental coordination.Proposals are typically developed by a lead government ministry.Without adequate coordination,the proposals may not carry the support of all government stakeholders.In South Africa,the original premise of the dealearly phase-out of coal generation in exchange for international finance for clean energyis currently being openly questioned by government ministers.This indicates that the political landscape was not factored into the deal at the inception phase.3.As the JETP moves towards implementation,further problems will arise.Monitoring and evaluation will become increasingly important to identify problems and develop mitigation measures.The development of structures to monitor and evaluate the JETP will become increasingly important.The South African JETP design process has been criticized for not being inclusive of the people most affected by its implementation.Prior to the publication of the JETP IP in IISD.org 6What Can Indonesia Learn from South Africas Experience of the Just Energy Transition Process?November 2022,even though various policy documents had been discussed and formalized(and the South Africa task team and the working groups had been working on the investment plan),the general public did not have the chance to consult these documents,nor had any representatives of affected communities.The JET forums convened by the Presidential Climate Commission are also seen as not yet sufficient to address these concerns.There is also the fact that even with the inclusion of a comprehensive definition of“just”transition,there is a very narrow focus on the mitigation of decarbonization and the historical impacts of coal mining in South Africa.The current state of the energy systemwhere there is still“unjustness”in terms of access to and affordability of electricityis also not addressed in the JETP deal,since universal,affordable access is not identified as a JETP focus area.This shows a lack of alignment between the interests of the JETP with the self-identified interests in the power of the majority of South Africans(Public Affairs Research Institute,2023).The issue of vested interests and widespread continued(and possibly even increasing)support for coal in South Africa would also be a relevant issue for policy-makers in Indonesia to consider.In the case of South Africa,the electricity supply crisis,which would have been an ideal argument for transitioning toward renewables,is driving demands to extend the life of coal assets and possibly even build out more coal infrastructure(Public Affairs Research Institute,2023).The ruling African National Congress went as far as issuing a recommendation for Eskom to delay the decommissioning of its aging coal power plants to minimize load-shedding.The contradiction between the discussion of accelerated phase-outs under the JETP and life extensions reflects the controversy around electricity planning and the implementation of the energy transition.Despite announcements and targets,many policies do not come to fruition.Box 1 outlines three drivers for this gap between policy and implementation.Overview of the South Africa JETP IP and Comparison with the Indonesian ContextThis section describes the key feat