全球长时储能报告2022（英）-47页-WN7.pdf
Trusted ILong-duration energy storage report 2022Market reportWood Mackenzie Power&Renewables1Long-duration energy storage report We provide commercial insight and access to our experts leveraging our integrated proprietary metals,energy and renewables research platform.Acquired Genscape,MAKE and Greentech Media(GTM)Leaders in the energy transition and cross-commoditiesOver 600 sector-dedicated analysts and consultants globallyLocated close to customers and industry contactsWood Mackenzie officesWood Mackenzie offices with Power&Renewables presenceAbout Wood MackenzieWood Mackenzie is ideally positioned to support consumers,producers and financers of the new energy economy.2Long-duration energy storage report About this reportThis report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global long-duration energy storage industry,focusing on Asia Pacific,Europe,and North America.The report highlights key trends for recent developments in major technology groups that may provide long-duration electricity storage applications,including Electrochemical energy storageThermal energy storageMechanical energy storageThe report analyses the current innovation status,investment landscape,and economics of selected energy storage technologies.The report also reviews the market opportunities and challenges that arise while these technologies seek a broader deployment,taking into account government energy policy,legislation,and decarbonization strategy.An executive summary of major long-duration energy storage development trends is provided for reference,reflecting market,policy,legislation and technology dynamics impacting large-scale deployment.This report will be published on an annual-basis to complement our annual Global Energy Storage Technology Trends report and Global Energy Storage Market Outlook Update reports.Source Wood Mackenzie3Long-duration energy storage report Contents1.Executive summary62.Electrochemical energy storage83.Thermal energy storage194.Mechanical energy storage255.Vendor landscape304Long-duration energy storage report Long-Duration Storage DefinitionDefining long-duration energy storageThe term“long-duration energy storage(LDES)”is used to refer to a wide technology group with sufficient duration to provide reliable capacity and support gridresource adequacy.Wood Mackenzie defines long duration as 8+hours of discharge duration at a rated power and excludes lithium-ion battery technology.Source:Wood Mackenzie.*:we believe successful innovation for energy storage passes four stages:1.R&D,2.a small-scale study&engineering at the pilot level,3.demonstration level,4.large-scale deployment;the evaluation is based on the status of most projects in each class of technology.Note:N/A means not enough industry data available.Comparison of long-duration energy storage technologiesTechnologyCurrent performanceCurrent innovation status*Cost rangeDurationEfficiencyResponse timeLifespanR&DPilotDemonstrationLarge-scale DeploymentVanadium flow batteries1,180-4,000(US$/kW)295-844(US$/kWh)Hours70%-80%Msec-Sec15-25 YearsZn-Br flow batteriesN/AHours65%-70%Msec-Sec15-25 YearsIron flow batteriesN/AHours65%-70%Msec-Sec15-25 YearsIron-air batteriesN/AHrs to DaysN/AMsec-SecN/AThermal energy storage567-5,7000(US$/kW)94-570(US$/kWh)Hrs to Days50%-80%Several min20-30 YearsPumped hydro storage462-2,777(US$/kW)72-249(US$/kWh)Hrs to Days70%-80%Sec-Min30-60 YearsGravity energy storageN/AHoursN/AMin25-30 YearsCompressed air storage690-4,200(US$/kW)86-2,100(US$/kWh)Hrs to Days50%-65%Min20-40 Years5Long-duration energy storage report The value of long-duration energy storage technologies poised to grow significantlyLong-duration energy storage technologies can provide multiple benefits to power systemsLong-duration energy storage technology holds great promise as a low-cost solution to enhancing the reliability and stability of the power system,with high renewables penetration.Different kinds of long-duration energy storage technologies have their own advantages and disadvantages.This enables these technologies to play different roles in grid-level large-scale electrical energy storage applications.With more long-duration energy storage projects online,the average storage duration of global energy storage systems is expected to increase continuously.Average storage duration of global energy storage systems(hour)Source:Wood MackenzieApplications of different long-duration energy storage technologies 1.21.31.31.82.23.42.43.14.42019202420182017202020212022202320256Long-duration energy storage report China wind power outlook 2021Executive summary123Long-duration storage energy(LDES)projects have attracted commitments of US$58 billion over the past three yearsOf this US$58 billion,projects representing US$30 billion are now either under construction or in operation.The US$58 billion corresponds to 57GW of LDES-equivalent to three times the global energy-storage capacity deployed in 2022.Despite rapid progress,most long-duration energy storage technologies are still nascent,struggling to scale cost-effectively before 2030Pumped hydro is the only truly large-scale LDES technology deployed and will continue to dominate out to 2030.Overcoming a list of technical,financial and business barriers is key for emerging LDES technologies to gain broader deployment,reduce cost and prove economic in comparison with CCGT paired with CCS.There are clear geographical disparities in the development of LDESThe deployment of vanadium redox flow batteries and compressed air energy storage has accelerated rapidly in China,largely driven by strong policy support.The US is beefing up its LDES industry,with companies actively strengthening innovation and promoting pilot&demonstration projects.Most European countries have been less enthusiastic about this field while the UK is trying to work out the right way.7Long-duration energy storage report In lithium-ion batteries,the“energy to power”ratio can be manipulated to provide the“long-duration energy storage”service.However,due to the nature of lithium-ion battery cell design,the power and energy capacity are coupled.This prevents the independent scaling of power and energy capacities in the energy storage system,making lithium-ion battery technology economically unviable to provide long-duration energy storage services.Soaring battery raw materials prices have caused growing concerns about using lithium-ion batteries in energy storage applications.Rising price risk has resulted in energy storage project delays and cancellations,slowing growth.Sustainability and safety issues related to lithium-ion batteries further restrict the use of lithium-ion batteries in long-duration energy storage applications.Prices of battery-grade lithium chemicals(Real 2022 US$/t)*Lithium-ion batteries are not a practical solution for long-duration energy storageCell design,rising prices,and sustainability issues limit Li-ion batteries to provide long-duration energy storage05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,00055,00060,00065,00070,000Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021Q1 2022Q4 2021Q2 2022+845%Battery-grade lithium hydroxide(Contract)Battery-grade lithium carbonate(Contract)Battery-grade lithium carbonate(Spot)Battery-grade lithium hydroxide(Spot)Source:Wood Mackenzie,*:the lithium price data from Wood Mackenzie Global lithium short-term outlook August 2022Electrochemical energy storage 2.9Long-duration energy storage report Redox flow batteries to supercharge long-duration energy storageUnique system architecture,long cycle life,and non-flammable features make flow batteries attractive for ESSA typical redox flow battery(RFB)is composed of two separate tanks of electrolyte solutions with charge-storage species.The two solutions are pumped through the cell where ion exchange occurs via an ion-selective membrane to store and generate energy.Several unique features make RFBs an attractive option for long-duration energy storage(8 hours)applications.RFBs decouple power and energy,so it would be cheaper to scale up energy capacity without compromising power capacity significantly.RFBs also have improved operational safety and a longer operational lifespan(over 20 years)than lithium-ion batteries(10-15 years).A characteristic disadvantage of RFBs is their relatively low energy density(currently 30-40Wh/L for vanadium redox flow batteries vs.400-650Wh/L for lithium-ion batteries).The RFB architecture is flexible to a wide range of chemistries.Many chemistries have been explored over the past few decades.Typical examples include vanadium redox flow batteries,zinc-bromine redox flow batteries,and iron redox flow batteries.100kW/400kWh system100kW/600kWh systemElectrolytePower component Management&controlling componentsSchematic diagram of redox flow batteriesSchematic diagram of scaling flow batteries energy capacity*Source:Wood Mackenzie,*:this diagram shows flow battery systems can be designed for longer durations without adding power components.10Long-duration energy storage report Vanadium redox flow batteries have been the most popular flow battery technology Vanadium redox flow batteries(VRFBs)have attracted over US$2.2 billion investment in the past three yearsVRFBs have been the most deployed redox flow batteries to date and attracted over US$2.2 billion in investment in the past three years globally.A key competitive edge of VRFBs is their symmetric chemistry.There is no chemical or electrochemical gradient across the membrane in the discharged state and two liquid electrolytes can last indefinitely.VRFBs commercialization has been much quicker than many other long-duration energy storage technologies.Half of the VRFB projects announced/commissioned between 2020-2022 are commercial.China has led the development and deployment of VRFB energy storage projects.In September 2022,the worlds largest flow battery(using VRFB chemistry)energy storage station was connected to the grid in Dalian,China.The first phase of the project has a capacity of 100 MW/400 MWh.The second phase of the project is expected to expand capacity to 200 MW/800 MWh.Strong policy support is a key enabler of rapid VRFB development in China.Number of RFB projects announced/commissioned 2020-2234339UnknownVanadium redox flow batteriesIron redox flow batteriesZinc bromine redox flow batteriesVRFB projects by innovation status and country:2020-202250%32%6%12%DemonstrationCommercialR&DPilot56%15%6%9%6%9%OthersAustraliaChinaSouth KoreaUSAUKSource:Wood MackenzieTotal5.2GWhTotal5.2GWh11Long-duration energy storage report VRFB companies are creating a vertically integrated business modelCompanies seek vertical integration across the value chain to develop competitive advantagesSource:Wood MackenzieVanadium miningVanadium processingElectrolyte makingVRFB R&DElectrolyte leasingESS project developmentVRFB assemble/makingVRFB companies are transforming the business model and becoming increasingly integrated across the value chain to promote the deployment of VRFBs.Vertical integrated VRFB companies are in a more positive position to reduce cost,gain market share and strengthen competitive advantages.VRFB providersUp-and mid-stream Services12Long-duration energy storage report Larger deployment of VRFBs is mainly hindered by its high costRelatively high upfront capital costs and vanadium price volatility restrict wider deployment of VRFBs Although VRFB technology is currently the most commercially advanced flow battery,it has not yet benefited from the learning curve and economies of scale that have been observed in lithium-ion battery technology in the past 10 years.VRFBs still have relatively high upfront capital costs,making it difficult to compete with lithium-ion batteries for 6-hour or shorter durations.The average CapEx of VRFB energy storage systems is about 2.4 times that of lithium-ion battery energy storage systems in China.High and volatile vanadium prices,mainly driven by specific events affecting supply and demand,is another big challenge facing the use of VRFBs in long-duration energy storage applications.Vanadium prices have seen significant volatility in the past decade,particularly in more recent years.Vanadium pentoxide price in H2 2018 was over six times the price in H1 2016.Average cost of VRFB energy storage system*(US$/kWh)Europe average V2O5spot prices(US$/lb)Source:Wood Mackenzie,the Argus Media Group*:the number applies to 100MW/200MWh system in the Chinese market in 2022.700295VRFBLi-ion+137%0510152025H2 2017H1 2016H2 2016H2 2018H2 2021H1 2017H1 2018H2 2019H1 2019H1 2020H2 2020H1 2021H1 2022+418%-54%13Long-duration energy storage report For VRFBs,the price and quantity of vanadium are key to the total cost of electrolyte.Further R&D is necessary to improve the efficiency of electrolytes and reduce the consumption of vanadium.Membranes in cell stacks are a significant contributor to the initial investment as well as the maintenance cost.Some membranes account for more than 20%of the total system cost.Therefore,further R&D efforts are necessary to develop alternative membranes using low-cost materials.R&D efforts are also required to improve the efficiency and energy density of the battery stack.Exploring new business models like renting vanadium electrolytes is expected to reduce the initial investment for VRFB energy storage systems.Driving innovation along the value chain and speeding up the deployment will help achieve economies of scale.Stronger government support for large-scale demonstration projects will be important to help the industry scale.Strategies to reduce the cost of VRFBsSource:Wood MackenzieVRFB cost reduction relies heavily on technology gains and economies of scale Cost reduction would play a key role in broader VRFB deployment14Long-duration energy storage report Leasing the electrolyte to reduce capex upfront cost and financial risksVRFB developers and vanadium producers collaborate on developing an electrolyte leasing business modelVRFB developerVanadium producerToday a major barrier to a larger deployment of vanadium redox flow batteries energy system is the relatively high upfront capital costs.In a 10kW/120kWh system,the vanadium electrolyte is the largest component of a vanadium redox flow battery energy storage system cost.Some companies have launched a vanadium electrolyte leasing business a new product that retains the ownership of electrolytes and rents out the electrolyte to the VRFB end users.An increasing number of vanadium producers and VRFB developers have formed joint ventures to create electrolyte leasing businesses,making VRFB projects more affordable.Electrolyte leasing would move some of the capital expense to operating expenses.As a result,upfront investment costs would be lowered.This would also create a strategy to reduce the impact of vanadium pricing volatility on project economics,benefiting the VRFB end users.As this business model becomes more mature,we expect upfront capital and rental costs will fall f
