法国不动产市场报告-77页-WN7.pdf
2022&2023 I N V E ST M E N TO F F I C E SR E TA I LFRENCHINVESTMENTFRANCEOFFICESGREATER PARIS REGIONRETAILFRANCEINVESTMENT 01KNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOK2022 HIGHLIGHTSVolumes were down slightly by 4%year-on-year,but fell sharply in Q4(-53%year-on-year).The new financial climate has caused the market to stall:more than 6 billion euros of assets have been withdrawn or put on hold.The regions fared better than the Greater Paris Region (-1%year-on-year compared to-5%).Foreigners were less present for acquisitions(23%drop year-on-year in investment volumes in France).Offices are still the dominant asset class,but their share continues to fall(54%in 2022 compared to 62%in 2021).Industrial:2nd best year on record.Retail:3rdbest year ever.Increasing diversification strategies.Increase in prime yields,but still significant differences of opinion between sellers and buyers.COMMERCESINVESTMENTKNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOKKNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOKNew financial climateThe end of free moneyChange in the 10-year OAT rate and the ECBs key rateAs a%Abundant liquidity:how long will it last?Change in SCPI inflowsIn France,in millions of euros10-year OATECB rate-1-0,500,511,522,533,5420082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202201 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0007 0008 0009 00010 00020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Q3 2022134 132-40 80 120 16020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Change in life insurance contributions In France,in billions of eurosSource:Banque de France/ECBSource:ASPIMSource:France AssureursCOMMERCESINVESTMENT2022 was the year of monetary policy tightening,with the European Central Bank raising key interest rates by 250 basis points in the second half of the year to curb inflation.Inflation remains high,reaching 10.4%in December in the EU compared to 5.3%a year earlier.The 10-year OAT rate has also soared,gaining nearly 300 basis points in one year.The fight against inflation will continue over the next few months and further rate hikes will be implemented,although they may be smaller than last year.The lack of visibility on prices and performance in the property sector will therefore continue into 2023.KNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOKAfter a buoyant 2021,the new financial situation explains the drop in real estate investment volumes in 2022 worldwide.Across all asset classes,the decrease was 25%on average compared to the previous year.In Europe,the decrease was significant in some major markets,such as Germany,while France fared well with a generally stable volume from one year to the next.International contextWorld-25%Europe-26%Asia Pacific-37%USA-18%Sharp decrease on all continentsChange in investment volumes between 2021 and 2022 worldwideAll asset types combined,excluding residential(offices,retail,industrial)COMMERCESINVESTMENTFrance held up wellChange in investment volumes in the main European marketsAll asset types combined,including residential,in billion euros-50 100 150 200 250 3002013201420152016201720182019202020212022UKGermanyFranceNetherlandsSwedenSpainSources:RCA,Knight FrankSources:RCA,Knight FrankKNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOKClose to the averageSlight 4%decrease year-on-yearChange in volumes invested in FranceAll asset types combined(offices,retail,industrial),in billions of eurosSource:Knight Frank37.526.3 26.325.4200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022French investment volumes10-year average5-year average2012-202125.7 B/year2017-202129.7 B/yearCOMMERCESINVESTMENTIn the corporate real estate market(offices,retail and industrial premises),the sums invested in France totalled 25.4 billion euros in 2022,i.e.a volume 4%lower than in the two previous years.Although activity remains far from the peak of 2019,it is close to the ten-year average and remains significantly higher than the results recorded during the financial crisis and the euro zone crisis.KNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOKHaving increased in each of the first three quarters of 2022,volumes fell sharply at the end of the year,which is usually the most dynamic period.5.1 billion euros was invested in France in the fourth quarter,a decrease of 54%compared to the same period in 2021 and the lowest level for a fourth quarter since 2013.Although activity had begun to lose steam in the summer,it was in the fourth quarter that the consequences of the rise in the cost of money and the increased wait-and-see attitude of investors were truly reflected in the figures.Almost 6 billion euros is missing compared to Q4 2021,which is quite close to Knight Franks estimate of the amount of assets withdrawn from the market and transactions put on hold.The majority of this amount relates to offices(84%),ahead of retail and industrial premises.Sharp drop in the 4thquarterLowest level since 2013Change in volumes invested in France in the fourth quarter of each year All asset types combined(offices,retail,industrial),in billions of euros15.49.211.05.120092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Volumes investis en FranceMoyenne 10 ansMoyenne 5 ans2017-202112.5 B/year2012-202110.3 B/year6.4BEstimated volume of assets on hold or withdrawn from the marketIn France in 2022Breakdown by asset type%of total amount84%12%4%Office Retail IndustrialSource:Knight FrankCOMMERCESINVESTMENTKNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOKThe slowdown in activity is particularly evident in the large transaction category.Of the 65 transactions 100 million euros completed in France in 2022,only 13 were recorded in Q4 for a total volume of 2 billion euros.24 were recorded in Q4 2021 for a volume almost three times as large.Furthermore,only three of the 18 transactions 200 million euros in 2022 were completed in Q4,including the sale of the Bloom office building in the 12tharrondissement of Paris to PRIMONIAL.Conversely,portfolios played a more significant role in 2022,contributing to the very strong performance of the logistics and retail markets.Even fewer very large dealsProportions remain stableBreakdown of investment volumes in France by amountAll types of assets combined(offices,retail,industrial)Source:Knight Frank899transactions(956 in 2021)18 200 M(22 in 2021)=6.1B(7.1 in 2021)=24%of volume(27%in 2020)23%Share of volume invested in portfolios(22%in 2021)27%24%21%25%21%19%31%31%0%20%40%60%80%100%20212022More than 200M100-200M50-100M 100 million(following 38 in 2021 and 50 in 2020),the overwhelming majority are nevertheless in the Greater Paris Region(29).In the regions,there were four such sales,the largest being the purchase by PERIAL of the La Marseillaise tower.KNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOKExamples of 2022 office transactionsSFL|91-93 BD PASTEUR,PARIS 15THSource:Knight FrankAG2R LA MONDIALE|61-63 RUE DES BELLES FEUILLES,PARIS 16THLA FRANAISE|CAMPUS CYBER,PUTEAUXBLACKROCK|M LYON,LYONICAMAP|CB3,PUTEAUXHSBC REIM|AXE 13,NANTERREM&G REAL ESTATE|RIO,PARIS 8THLA FRANAISE,CDC|ALPHABET,BOIS COLOMBESPERIAL|LA MARSEILLAISE,MARSEILLEPRIMONIAL REIM|BLOOM,PARIS 12THCOMMERCESINVESTMENTKNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOKOf the 10.6 billion euros invested in the Greater Paris Region office market in 2022(-17%year-on-year),it is in the suburbs that the drop has been the greatest.In the Inner Suburbs,the amounts invested last year totalled just under 1.5 billion euros,a volume 39%below the ten-year average.In the North,where seven transactions 100 million euros drove the market in 2021,four were finalised in 2022,including the sale by LA FRANAISE of Kappa in Saint-Ouen.Despite the recent completion of a number of large transactions,such as the sale to ICAMAP of CB3 in La Dfense,activity has also slowed in the West.Looking at all transaction sizes,the cumulative value of transactions signed in 2022 in the Western Crescent and La Dfense will barely reach 2.4 billion euros,compared to an average of more than 5 billion euros over the last ten years.The strength of the Parisian market contrasts with the downturn seen in the suburbs.Investment volumes in the Central Business District were 8%higher than in 2021,driven by near-record letting activity.Outside the CBD,performance in 2022 was 11%above the ten-year average as a result of several large and very large transactions such as the sale of 91-93 boulevard Pasteur in the 15tharrondissement to SFL and the sale of Bloom in the 12tharrondissement to PRIMONIAL.That said,the Paris market did not escape the slowdown in activity in the second half of the year due to differences of opinion between sellers and buyers,as was the case in other sectors.Almost universal decreaseOuter Suburbs 1.700.720.63Inner Suburbs3.481.50Western Crescent 5.993.501.72La Dfense3.561.80Paris outside CBD4.242.863.16Paris CBD5.323.000.692.433.69COMMERCESINVESTMENTParis outside the CBD outperforms Office investment volumes by geographical areaIn the Greater Paris Region,in billions of euros10-year average 202210-year investment recordSource:Knight FrankKNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOKAfter a sluggish third quarter,2022 ended on a positive note for the regional office market.Volumes rose again in the fourth quarter as a result of the completion of several significant transactions.Over the whole of 2022,they amounted to just over three billion euros(-5%year-on-year).While a number of medium-sized cities have become more attractive,volumes have been boosted by the signing of large-scale transactions in the largest cities,such as PERIALs purchase of the La Marseillaise tower in the first half of the year.In the fourth quarter,the acquisition by BLACKROCK of the M Lyon project and the sale by ICADE and SOGEPROM of 13,200 sq m of office space in La Part-Dieu confirmed the dominance of the Lyon market,which was particularly dynamic with 1.1 billion euros invested in offices in 2022.Although the large transaction trend could fade in 2023,the outlook remains positive for the regional office markets:more stable,less exposed to remote working and to the ups and downs of global activity,their supply generally remains limited and they also benefit from the geographical diversification strategies of French and foreign players.Strength of the regionsLyon records one of its three best yearsChange in investment volumes in offices in the Rhne-Alpes region In billions of euros1.100%10%20%30%40%50%60%0,00,20,40,60,81,01,21,4201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202210-year averageRhne-Alpes share in regional office investmentsSource:Knight FrankTOP 5 in the regions Office investment volumes in 2022Share as a%of total office investments in the regionsOTHERS16%LYON36%Toulouse8%Lille13%Nantes4%Aix-Marseille13%COMMERCESINVESTMENTKNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOKAs in 2021,the majority of investment volumes in the Greater Paris Region office market have been for core assets,illustrating the appeal of secure properties in the face of the deteriorating economic situation and soaring vacancy rates outside Paris.In 2023,investors will continue to favour properties that are best suited to occupier demand and that are the most environmentally efficient.However,while the correction in values remains fairly modest in the core sector,the market for core+and value-add properties could be more dynamic due to a more pronounced adjustment to meet buyers expectations.Core assets still dominate but the price correction makes Core+and Value-add more appealingBreakdown of office investment volumes by risk type in the Greater Paris RegionUnit transactions 20MCoreCore PlusValue-add/speculativeOf which pre-let forward-funding sales Of which partially let forward-funding sales Of which speculative forward-funding sales54%57%5%5%15%11%23%23%4%3%20212022COMMERCESINVESTMENTSource:Knight FrankKNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOK5.7 billion euros was invested in the French retail market in 2022,an increase of 16%compared to the ten-year average and the third best performance in its history after 2014 and 2019.This result is due to a high number of large transactions:16 100 million euros were recorded in France in 2022 compared with only 4 in 2021.Despite a slowdown at the end of the year,the fourth quarter was nonetheless buoyed by the signing of three new major transactions,all of which were portfolio sales:the sale of GRAND FRAIS shops,CORA hypermarkets and a portfolio of shopping centres and retail parks.Over the year as a whole,portfolios accounted for 41%of the volume invested in the French retail market and therefore contributed directly to its exceptional result.Finally,although the lack of visibility is likely to weigh on volumes and the number of transactions in 2023,several major transactions are still expected,particularly in the outskirts and on some of Paris most prestigious streets.Retail is restored to its former gloryChange in retail investment volumes in FranceIn billions of euros,all retail formats included 4,50 3,18 5,7517%13%23%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Sums invested in retail in France10-year averageShare of retail in total French investment volumeRetail:3rdbest yearShare of volumes invested in portfoliosIn France,all retail formats,as a%41%In 2022 30%In 2021 COMMERCESINVESTMENTSource:Knight FrankKNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOKExamples of 2022 retail transactionsSOCIETE GENERALE ASSUR./BNP PARIBAS CARDIF CARR SNART,LIEUSAINT CHEVAL PARIS|150 AVENUE DES CHAMPS-LYSESPARIS 8THSource:Knight FrankCOMMERCESINVESTMENTBARINGS|GALAXY PORTFOLIO,FRANCEBNP PARIBAS REIM|MON BEAU BUCHELAY,BUCHELAYCEETRUS|V2 SHOPPING CENTRE VILLENEUVE DASQARES MANAGEMENT|FAST PORTFOLIO,FRANCEAMUNDI|SHOPPING PARC CARR SNART,LIEUSAINTLA FRANAISE|FIRE PORTFOLIO,FRANCEKNIG HT FRANK 2022 REVIEW&2023 OUTLOOK2022 was a historic year for retail parks,with 1.5 billion euros invested,an increase of 78%compared to the ten-year average.As in other market categories,the sale of retail portfolios(BURGER KING,DECATHLON,etc.)was a key factor,but activity was also supported by numerous sales of individual assets,both small and large-scale,such as the Carr Snart Shopping Parc,sold to AMUNDI by URW.This exceptional performance is the sign of a mature market.Investors are now very familiar with this format,which has proven itself in recent years and has withstood the Covid-19 pandemic well.In 2023,retail parks will continue to benefit from their triple A positioning:1.attractive yields for investors impacted by the new financial climate,2.attractive occupancy costs for retailers accelerating the streamlining of their real estate in order to retain profitability,and finally 3.attractive prices for consumers whose purchasing power has been eroded by inflation.An outstanding performanceInvestment volumes in the French retail park marketIn millions of eurosA record year for retail parks 6141,1151,53335%27%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019
