国际可再生资源机构-可再生能源准备评估：白俄罗斯（英）-2021.7-80正式版.ppt

RenewablesReadinessAssessmentTHE REPUBLIC OFBELARUS IRENA 2021Unless otherwise stated,material in this publication may be freely used,shared,copied,reproduced,printed and/orstored,provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder.Material in thispublication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions,and appropriatepermissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material.Citation:IRENA(2021),Renewables Readiness Assessment:Belarus,International Renewable Energy Agency,Abu Dhabi.ISBN 978-92-9260-353-3About IRENAThe International Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA)serves as the principal platformfor international co-operation,a centre of excellence,a repository of policy,technology,resource and financial knowledge,and a driver of action on the ground to advance thetransformation of the global energy system.An intergovernmental organisation establishedin 2011,IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms ofrenewable energy,including bioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solar and windenergy,in the pursuit of sustainable development,energy access,energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity.www.irena.orgAcknowledgementsThis report benefited from reviews and comments by Mikhail Malashenko,Vladimir Shevchenok,AndreiMinenkov(State Committee for Standardisation of the Republic of Belarus),Sergey Greben(Ministry of Energyof Belarus),Andrei Molochko(consultant)and Ivan Filiutsich(UNDP Belarus).IRENA colleagues Grbz Gnl,Binu Parthan,Petya Icheva,Nopenyo Dabla,Ute Collier,Diala Hawila,Emanuele Bianco,Costanza Strinati,Luis Janeiro,Imen Gherboudj,Sonja Malievi,Jack Kiruja,Aleksandra Prodan,Laura Camarut and Stephanie Clarke also provided valuable input.This report was developed under the guidance of Grbz Gnl,Binu Parthan and Petya Icheva(IRENA)andauthored by Tijana Radojii(consultant).Available for download:www.irena.org/publicationsFor further information or to provide feedback:publicationsirena.orgDisclaimerThis publication and the material herein are provided“as is”.All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliabilityof the material in this publication.However,neither IRENA nor any of its officials,agents,data or other third-party content providersprovides a warranty of any kind,either expressed or implied,and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use ofthe publication or material herein.The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA.The mention of specific companiesor certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similarnature that are not mentioned.The designations employed,and the presentation of material herein,do not imply the expression of anyopinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region,country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning thedelimitation of frontiers or boundaries.Photographs are from Shutterstock unless otherwise indicated.THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUSRenewables Readiness AssessmentTHE REPUBLIC OFBELARUSJULY 20213RENEWABLES READINESS ASSESSMENTFOREWORDfrom the Chairman of the State Committee for Standardization of the Republic of BelarusThe Republic of Belarus recognises the key role that modern,energy-efficient and carbon-neutral technologies play in the successful economicdevelopment of countries.Along with the international community,Belarus iscontinuously modernising and introducing innovations in the countrys energysector,including measures to develop renewable energy and replace fossilfuels with renewable sources.This work is aimed at creating favourable livingconditions for the citizens of Belarus,increasing the competitiveness of thenational economy and reducing negative environmental impacts,as well asfulfilling domestic and international obligations and goals.The Republic of Belarus,as a member State of the International RenewableEnergy Agency(IRENA),requested that IRENA conduct a Renewables ReadinessAssessment.This study,prepared in co-operation with the State Committee forStandardization and representatives of government agencies and organisations,presents the key aspects of the current state of the energy sector.It proposessignificant short and medium-term measures to improve the legislative and cross-sectoral environment to increase the development of renewables.Valentin BoleslavovichTataritskyChairman of the StateCommittee for Standardizationof the Republic of BelarusThis comprehensive assessment is based on the results of workingconsultations with relevant stakeholders from government authorities andother organisations leading the renewable energy sector in Belarus,whichhelped to identify opportunities and develop solutions for increasing theuse of renewables.The assessment also describes the factors hindering thedevelopment of renewable energy and measures to accelerate the pace ofdevelopment of renewables in our country.The implementation of the Renewables Readiness Assessment for Belaruswill certainly help to enhance the positive image of the Republic of Belarusin the international community.It will form the basis for the developmentof new areas of co-operation with other countries and international andfinancial organisations in the field of renewable energy.The presentationand publication of the Renewables Readiness Assessment will also openup new opportunities for the Republic of Belarus to co-operate withinternational partners on the implementation of regional and cross-borderprojects of international technical assistance,investment,and infrastructureprojects contributing to the achievement of national and global sustainabledevelopment goals,including Goal 7,“Ensure access to affordable,reliable,sustainable and modern energy for all”.On behalf of the State Committee for Standardization of the Republic ofBelarus,I express my gratitude to the International Renewable EnergyAgency for the preparation of the Renewables Readiness Assessment forBelarus.I also express my gratitude to all international and national experts,government officials and stakeholders who contributed to this process andshared their best practices,knowledge and experience.The proposals andrecommendations collected in the assessment will definitely have a positiveeffect and a direct impact on the implementation of a long-term energystrategy in Belarus,allowing us to create a sustainable and environmentallyfriendly future for our country.4THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUSFOREWORDFrom the IRENA Director-GeneralAs the world moves towards a low-carbon future,the energy sector isundergoing deep transformations to rise to this challenge.Through renewableenergy,a less carbon-intensive development model is now within reach,withnumerous positive spillovers for the economy and society.Currently,fossil fuels make up more than 90%of the energy mix in Belarus,with natural gas taking the lions share.Power generation is also predominantlyfossil fuel-based,with very limited integration of renewable sources.Energyimports amount to 84.8%of the total primary energy supply and comeprimarily from a single source supplier,exposing the country to price volatilityand putting its energy security at risk.Renewable energy is the response to many of these challenges.Clean,reliable,available locally and increasingly cheaper,renewable energy would strengthenthe energy security of Belarus by reducing its reliance on fossil fuel imports.It would contribute to economic growth,job creation and improved airquality,thereby enhancing the peoples well-being.Although still in a nascentstage in the Belarusian energy sector,renewable energy has been growingsteadily over the past decade,accounting for 7.1%of the countrys final energyconsumption in 2019.While most of Belaruss renewable energy productioncomes from biofuels,there is significant potential for biomass,solar and winddevelopment and integration across all end use sectors.Setting ambitiousrenewable energy targets,designing renewable energy auctions,adopting agrid code to support the integration of renewables,de-risking investments,and enhancing human and institutional capacities are among the key actionsidentified by IRENA that could harness the potential of renewable energysources in Belarus.Francesco La CameraDirector-GeneralInternational RenewableEnergy AgencySince 2011,nearly 40 countries in regions from Latin America and theCaribbean to Africa,the Middle East,Asia and the Pacific have undertakenRenewables Readiness Assessment,exchanging knowledge and fosteringinternational co-operation to accelerate the deployment of renewables.Eachprocess has been country-led,with IRENA providing technical expertiseand highlighting regional and global insights,along with facilitating nationalstakeholder consultations.IRENA thanks the State Committee for Standardization of the Republicof Belarus(Gosstandart)for its close co-operation and engagement in thedevelopment of this RRA.The report has also benefitted from the valuableinput of numerous other government agencies and national stakeholders.I am confident that the observations and recommendations presented herewill be valuable in addressing the challenges of the energy sector in Belarusby highlighting the path to uptake the deployment of renewables.5RENEWABLES READINESS ASSESSMENTCONTENTSFigures,tables and boxes.8Abbreviations.9Executive summary.101 Introduction.151.1Renewables Readiness Assessment.151.2Country overview.1601022 Energy sector context.242.1Energy balance.242.2Electricity balance.272.3Heat balance.292.4Power infrastructure.292.4Institutional framework.312.5Energy sector policy and legislation.342.7Energy prices.383 Renewable energy03sector development.403.1Resource potential.403.2Renewable energy policy and regulation.453.3Renewable energy finance and co-operation.484.1Falling costs of renewable energy technologies.516THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS4 Rationale for renewable0405energy development.514.2Increased energy security.524.3Contribution to economic growth.534.4Reduction of GHG emissions.534.5Local value chain creation.545 Challenges andrecommendations.565.1Policy and regulatory frameworks.565.2Renewables in enduses.615.3Planning and integration of renewables.635.4Renewable energy financing.675.5.Institutional capacities and skills.71References.747FIGURESFigure 23 Direct Normal Irradiance in Belarus.44Figure 24 Global LCOEs from newly commissioned,utility-scale renewable power generationtechnologies,2010-2020.51Figure 1 Map of Belarus.16Figure 25 Import prices of fossil fuels,2012-2019.52Figure 2 Map outlining the territorial regionsand municipality of Belarus.17Figure 26 Distribution of human resourcesrequired along the value chain for thedevelopment of a 50 MW solar PV plant,by activity.55Figure 3 GDP(USD billion)and GDP growth(%),1991-2019.18Figure 4 Correlation between TPES and GDP.19Figure 27 Distribution of human resources requiredto operate and maintain a 50 MW windFigure 5 Energy intensity of GDP of Belaruscompared to EU,2010-2019.20farm,by occupation.73Figure 6 Change in GHG emissions,1990-2017.21Figure 7 Total primary energy supply by fuel,2019.24 TABLESFigure 8 Domestic production vs.supplyof energy by source,2019.25Figure 9 Final energy consumption by energyTable 1Table 2Table 3Ease of doing business ranking fortype,2019.25Belarus.22Figure 10 Final energy consumption by sector,Installed power generation capacities,2019.26end 2019.30Figure 11 Final energy consumption in sectorsKey targets for energy sectorby carrier/fuel,2019.26development by 2035.36Figure 12 Electricity production,2005-2019.27Figure 13 Electricity production by source,2019.27Table 4 Consumer tariffs by energy type,2020.39Table 5Technical potential of biogas generationfrom animal waste.41Figure 14 Electricity imports and exports,2013-2019.28Table 6Table 7Quota allocations,2021-2023.46Figure 15 Heat production by type of plant,2019.29Figure 16 Power grid map.31Overview of coefficients for FiTcalculation.47Table 8IFI financing opportunities for renewableenergy investments.48Figure 17 Institutional structure of the energysector.32Figure 18 Operational structure of the electricitysystem in Belarus.33Figure 19 Forest residue resources in Belarus.40BOXESFigure 20 Annual wind speed map at 100 mhub height.42Figure 21 Global horizontal irradiation in Belarus.43Figure 22 Solar PV potential in Belarus.43Box 1Successful auction design:The case ofKazakhstan.60ABBREVIATIONSbcmBillion cubic metreskVKilovoltBelEnergo Belarusian State Production Association ofkVAKilovolt-ampereKilowattthe Electric Power IndustrykWBelSEFFBelarusian Sustainable Energy FinanceFacilitykWhkWpLCOELPGKilowatt hourKilowatt-peakLevelised cost of energyLiquid petroleum gasBelTopGas Belarusian Fuel and Gasification State-Owned Production AssociationBELSTAT National Statistical Committee of theLULUCFLand use,land use change and forestrysectorRepublic of BelarusBYRCBelarusian rubleDegree Celsiusm2Square metreCubic metreMetrem3CESCommon Economic Space(of Armenia-Belarus-Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan-RussianFederation)mMARTMinistry of Anti-Monopoly Regulation andTradeCHPCIPCombined heat and powermmm/sMtMillimetreClimate Investment PlatformCommonwealth of Independent StatesDirect normal irradianceCISMiles per secondMegatonnesDNIMtCO-eq Megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalentEAEUEaPEurasian Economic UnionMtoeMWMillion tonnes of oil equivalentMegawattEastern Partnership(of the European Union)EBRDEuropean Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopmentNDCNEFCONPPNationally determined contributionNordic Environment Finance CorporationNuclear power plantEDBEUEurasian Development BankEuropean UnionEURFiTEuroNWPPPANumerical weather predictionPower purchase agreementPhotovoltaicFeed-in tariffGCFGDPGHGGHIGreen Climate FundGross domestic productGreenhouse gasPVRRASE4AllSMETcalRenewables Readiness AssessmentSustainable Energy for AllSmall and medium-sized enterpriseTera calorieGlobal horizontal irradiationGosstandartState Committee for Standardization of theRepublic of BelarusTFECTPESTWhVTotal final energy consumptionTotal primary energy supplyTerawatt hourGWGWhhaGigawattGigawatt hourHectareVoltHPPIFCHydropower plantVAVolt-ampereInternational Finance CorporationInternational finance institutionIntended nationally determined contributionIndependent power producerInternational Renewable Energy AgencyKilometreVATValue added taxIFIUNDPUNFCCCUnited Nations Development ProgrammeINDCIPPUnited Nations Framework Convention onClimate ChangeIRENAkmUSDUnited States dollarUSSRUnion of Soviet Socialist RepublicsktoeKilotonnes of oil equivalentEXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe Republic of Belarus is a landlocked country in eastern Europe with a population ofapproximately 9.5million people.After the dissolution of the Union of Soviet SocialistRepublics(USSR)in 1991,the economy of Belarus contracted,but it