格拉坦研究所-走向零排放：减少交通排放的切实可行的政策（英）-2021.7-41正式版.ppt
Towards net zero:Practical policies to reduce transport emissionsGrattan Institute SupportGrattan Institute Report No.2021-07,July 2021Founding membersEndowment SupportersThe Myer FoundationThis report was written by Tony Wood,Alison Reeve,and James Ha.National Australia BankWe would like to thank the Susan McKinnon Foundation forits generous and timely support of this project.Susan McKinnon FoundationAffiliate PartnersEcstra FoundationWe would also like to thank the members of Grattan Institutes Energy andClimate Change Program Reference Group for their helpful comments,aswell as numerous government and industry participants and officials fortheir input.Origin Energy FoundationSusan McKinnon FoundationSenior AffiliatesCuffe Family FoundationMaddocksThe opinions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of Grattan Institutes founding members,affiliates,individual board members,reference group members,or reviewers.Theauthors are responsible for any errors or omissions.Medibank PrivateThe Myer FoundationScanlon FoundationTrawalla FoundationWesfarmersGrattan Institute is an independent think tank focused on Australian publicpolicy.Our work is independent,practical,and rigorous.We aim to improvepolicy by engaging with decision makers and the broader community.Weacknowledge and celebrate the First Nations people on whose traditionallands we meet and work,and whose cultures are among the oldest inhuman history.WestpacAffiliatesAllensFor further information on Grattans programs,or to join our mailing list,please go to:http:/www.grattan.edu.au/.Yo u can make a donation tosupport future Grattan reports here:www.grattan.edu.au/donate.AshurstThe Caponero GrantCorrsThis report may be cited as:Wood,T.,Reeve,A.,and Ha,J.(2021).Towards net zero:Practical policies to reduce transport emissions.Grattan Institute.McKinsey&CompanySilver ChainUrbisISBN:978-0-6450879-5-6All material published or otherwise created by Grattan Institute is licensed under a CreativeCommons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.Grattan Institute 20212Towards net zero:Practical policies to reduce transport emissionsOverviewGovernments around the world are moving to net zero,to limitthe impacts of climate change.All Australian state and territorygovernments have the goal of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by2050 at the latest,and the Prime Minister says the national goal is netzero,preferably by 2050.The vehicle fleet takes more than 20 years to replace;any new petroland diesel cars sold in the 2030s could still be in use after 2050.Australia needs a national fleet emissions standard for new passengerand light commercial vehicles,and the standard should tighten to zeroemissions by 2035.This would signal an end date for the sale of newpetrol and diesel light vehicles,consistent with other major economiesand with International Energy Agency advice.And it would encouragecar manufacturers to supply low-and zero-emissions vehicles that meetAustralian consumers range and performance demands.Yet Australia is not on track to hit this target.The best way to reduceemissions in every sector in an economically efficient way would be tointroduce a single,economy-wide emissions price coupled with supportfor technology development and removing non-price barriers.But thepolitical reality is that carbon pricing is out of reach,at least for now.SoAustralia should pursue sector-specific policies.Governments should encourage a thriving market for zero-emissionsvehicles by exempting them from inefficient taxes such as import duties,luxury car tax,and motor vehicle stamp duty.They should ensuredrivers across the country have somewhere to charge electric models.Australian governments can and should act now to create momentumtowards the net-zero goal.This report,the first in a series on net zero,recommends policies for the transport sector,which was responsible for18 per cent of Australias emissions in 2020.Cutting emissions in the light vehicle fleet would ease the pressureto find emissions reductions in other modes of transport,such asaviation and long-distance trucking,where affordable alternativesto fossil fuels are harder to identify.In these sectors,governmentsshould make small bets on all the alternatives,and plan scenarios foreach should it become the clear winner.Increasing the truck widthlimit to match the US standard would mean zero-emissions modelsdesigned for overseas markets could be more easily adapted forAustralia.A renewable hydrocarbon fuel target would also be a smartbet,especially for the aviation industry.Annual emissions from transport grew from 82 million tonnes in2005 to 101 million tonnes in 2019.The reasons include populationgrowth,larger vehicles,increased freight movements,and more flights.Emissions dropped sharply,by 7 million tonnes,in 2020 due to theCOVID-19 pandemic,but the Federal Government projects they willrebound and reach 100 million tonnes by 2030.The best way to cut transport emissions is to switch to zero-emissionsvehicles,mainly battery electric vehicles,in the light vehicle fleet.The range,performance,upfront price,and total ownership costsof zero-emissions vehicles are rapidly improving.But relying ontechnology and market forces alone wont be enough to get on trackfor net zero by 2050.Action today is crucial to avoid locking in emissions for decades tocome,and to ensure the transport sector contributes to Australiareaching net zero by 2050.Governments have set the goal;this reportidentifies the practical,no-regrets policies they can adopt to steerAustralia in the right direction.Grattan Institute 20213Towards net zero:Practical policies to reduce transport emissionsRecommendations1.Ensure emissions from light vehicles are systematically reduced,andthat Australians have the widest choice of low-emissions andzero-emissions vehicles4.Test all options for reducing heavy vehicle and aviation emissionsSupport targeted trials of zero-emissions trucks,particularlyhydrogen trucks,to assess their performance under Australianconditions and practices.Set a mandatory fleet emissions standard,applied to the sale of allnew light vehicles,tightening to zero emissions by 2035 to set anend date for sales of new petrol and diesel light vehicles.Develop national standards and certification for renewablehydrocarbons(low-emissions fuels,generally made from biomassor waste,that can be blended up to 100 per cent with no enginemodification),based on their emissions intensity,building on workalready being done on hydrogen.2.Scrap inefficient taxes and regulations that slow Australians take-upof zero-emissions vehiclesScrap import duties and stamp duty on zero-emissions vehicles,Establish a renewable fuel standard for diesel,aviation fuel,and waive luxury car tax on such vehicles for the rest of thedecade.and shipping fuel,that requires fuel wholesalers and retailersto buy certificates or to blend small amounts(e.g.1 per cent)ofrenewable hydrocarbons into fuels sold by 2025,with the targetrising in following years.Increase the truck width limit in Australia from 2.5m to 2.6m toensure any zero-emissions heavy vehicles made for the EU or UScan be used in Australia without expensive modifications.3.Ensure buildings and the electricity grid are electric vehicle-readyUpdate the National Construction Code to require that all newbuildings with off-street parking include electrical cabling to allowfor an appropriate number of future vehicle chargers.Require all leased dwellings with off-street parking to have anelectrical outlet near each car space by 2030.Plan now to ensure convenient,local vehicle charging is availableby 2030 for all residents of homes without off-street parking.Plan the electricity tariff reforms necessary for smart managementof vehicle charging in future.Grattan Institute 20214Towards net zero:Practical policies to reduce transport emissionsIn the absence of an economy-wide emissions price,it is policy makersrather than the market who must decide where to reduce emissions.In this series of reports,we are aiming for the lowest-cost,no-regretsemissions reductions in each sector first,even though this approach willbe less efficient than an economy-wide market-based policy.Generally,we will start from existing policies and orient them towards acommon goal,rather than propose wholesale changes.We will preferpolicies that are technology-neutral with respect to achieving the net-zero goal,except in the cases where the winner is already obvious.Crucially,we see a role for technology and incentives and regulation,because a combination of the three will ensure appropriate risk-sharingbetween the public and private sectors.It should be possible for major parties to adopt our recommendations whether for presentation at the international climate conference inGlasgow in November 2021,or for domestic policy platforms butretain differentiated views on detailed policy design and the best mix.Much public conversation on setting and achieving a net-zero goalfor Australia focuses on activities and changes that are expensiveand difficult.This neglects the actions that we can take now,whosesuccessful implementation will build confidence and momentum.Thisreport series will focus on policies that can be implemented now,withsome suggestions for the longer term where relevant.None of ourrecommendations by themselves can deliver the full net-zero outcome,but they will all help orientate the economy in the right direction.Grattan Institute 20219Towards net zero:Practical policies to reduce transport emissionsBibliographyAAA(2021).Our journey to greener mobility.Australian Automobile Association.https:/www.aaa.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/20210209-Our-Journey-to-Greener-Mobility-2021-v1.5-for-web.pdf.ACT Revenue Office(2021).Motor Vehicle Duty.https:/www.revenue.act.gov.au/duties/motor-vehicle-duty.Actsmart(2021).Sustainable Household 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