2024年全球经济展望：增长缓慢不确定性高（英）-ACCA.doc

2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTYAbout ACCAWe are ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants), a globally recognised professional accountancy body providing qualifications and advancing standards in accountancy worldwide.Founded in 1904 to widen access to the accountancy profession, weve long championed inclusion and today proudly support a diverse community of over 247,000 members and 526,000 future members in 181 countries.Our forward-looking qualifications, continuous learning and insights are respected and valued by employers in every sector. They equip individuals with the business and finance expertise and ethical judgment to create, protect, and report the sustainable value delivered by organisations and economies.Guided by our purpose and values, our vision is to develop the accountancy profession the world needs. Partnering with policymakers, standard setters, the donor community, educators and other accountancy bodies, were strengthening and building a profession that drives a sustainable future for all.Find out more at Copyright © January 2024 by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA).All rights reserved. Used with permission of ACCA. Contact insights forpermission to reproduce, store or transmit, or to make other similar uses of this document.IntroductionThis is an inaugural publication which we hope will help you and your stakeholders navigate the many challenges and risks in the global economy in the year ahead. We intend to produce it annually in the future and, hence, would greatly appreciate any thoughts or feedback you may have on it.In an attempt to try and differentiate it somewhat from the many other outlook publications produced around this time of year, we include summaries of interviews with seven chief financial officers (CFOs) from across the globe. They provided their bottom-up perspectives from the corporate level on how they see the prospects for the world and their regions and countries in 2024. In Section 1, we discuss the prospects for the global economy and key countries in 2024, as well as some ofthe major risks. In Section 2, we highlight and discuss the key risk events to watch, in a year packed full of elections around the globe. In Section 3, we highlight three key trends we will be closely following in the coming year: i) further backsliding by governments on policies intended to achieve the green transition; ii) rising geoeconomic fragmentation; and iii) developments with artificial intelligence (AI). Finally, in Section 4 we publish summaries of interviews with seven CFOs.3Executive summaryThe global economy looks set to grow slowly once again in 2024, and downside risks remain.The lagged impact of past monetary tightening could lead to an even more pronounced slowing in growth, and geopolitical risks remain very heightened, while the busy political calendar adds a sizeable extra degree of uncertainty and potential volatility.U.S. growth is likely to slow from 2023, but the chances of the Federal Reserve (Fed) pulling off a soft-landing look better than even now. Growth will remain weak in the euro area and UK amid restrictive monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy, but should still be moderately positive. The recovery in China remains quite tentative, and policymakers will likely haveto materially step-up policy support in 2024 if they want to achieve growth similar to 2023. Meanwhile, growth in India is set to remain robust, and it is likely to be the fastest-growing major economy once again in 2024.This year has an extraordinarily busy political calendar. A key focus for businesses and investors will be the U.S. election in November. In what is likely to be a very tight race, polls in key swing states currently give former President Trump a slight advantage. A victory for the former president could have major implications for international trade, geopolitics and the green transition. There are also elections in other economically and geopolitically important countries. In India, Prime Minister Modi looks set for another five-year term, while in the UK, the opposition centre-left Labour Party looks on course to return to power. In Europe, far-right political parties look set to perform well in European Parliamentary and German regional elections. In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) is highly likely to remain the largest party but is at risk of losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of Apartheid.In addition to closely monitoring the usual ebb and flow of economic and financial markets data throughout the year, we will also be paying particularly close attention to three key trends: i) further backsliding by governments on policies intended to achieve the green transition; ii) rising geoeconomic fragmentation; and iii) developments with artificial intelligence (AI). The first two could be particularly influenced by political developments throughout the year. For the last, we will be on the lookout for any early signs that wider adoption could be beginning to provide a much-needed boost to productivity growth in global economies. In particular, as generative AI continues to develop, more accessible models could increase the discovery of new and better applications.To support our economic analysis, we also interviewed seven CFOs from across the globe in various sectors, to gain a bottom-up perspective on how business leaders see the year ahead. In general, there was a feeling of caution about 2024, amid the challenging global economic backdrop and given the geopolitical developments and elections in many countries. Some businesses were naturally less impacted by cyclical economic developments, but a number were affected by, or at risk from, structural changes related to trade, and supply chain issues. Most were experimenting with AI and other technologies in their businesses, while some noted difficulty in attracting talent, given changing ways of working. One noted how global warming had recently impacted his business.4Section 1:Prospects for the Global economy in 2024The global economy performed better than expected in 2023, avoiding the major downturn that many observers feared.It benefited from the sharp fall in commodity prices from their 2022 peaks and the continued recovery of global supply chains and normalisation of service sectors, while economies proved more resilient than expected to the aggressive increases in central bank interest rates. This probably reflects the support to consumer spending from excess savings built up during the pandemic, as well as the fact that many households and firms had previously locked in low interest rates.There was, nonetheless, still a divergence in performance among the major economies. The U.S. and India performed strongly, the Chinese recovery was disappointing, while growth was weak in the euro area. Overall, the global economy is still thought to have grown by well below its annual average of recent decades. The World Bank has estimated that in 2023 there was an expansion of just 3% (see Table 1), similar to the OECDs 2.9% estimate from November (OECD 2023).Business-related surveys typically pointed to slowing global economic momentum as 2023 progressed. In our Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) (ACCA/IMA, 2024), confidence among accountants and financial professionals globally has fallen gradually for three successive quarters since Q1 (see Chart 1), while the closely watched J.P. Morgan Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has fallen quite markedly since its peak in the spring, although it has improved slightly in recent months (S&P Global 2024a). Across sectors, the manufacturing PMI was in, or quite close to, contractionary territory through much of 2023 (S&P Global 2024b), which is reflected in the weakness in global trade growth, but it was the slowing of the service sector PMI that drove most of the fall in the Composite index. Despite the declines, the surveys are not indicative of a major global downturn at the present time.CHART 1: GECS global business confidence2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: ACCA/IMA (2024)Headline inflation has fallen back sharply in most countries across the globe over the past 12 months, and core inflation has also come down materially in many. Of the two major advanced economies, headline inflation is currently 3.4% in the U.S. and 2.9% in the euro area well down from recent peaks of around 9% and 11% respectively. Nevertheless, amid the recent rises in headline inflation in both countries in December, rather stubborn service sector inflation (see Chart 2), and an elevated risk of supply shocks amid the current geopolitical backdrop, it could be risky for the central banks to declare imminent victory in their battles against inflation. Indeed, according to global accountants who responded to our GECS survey, concerns about costs remain elevated by historical standards (ACCA/IMA, 2024). Without a more material easing in job markets, there remains a significant risk that the last mile for central banks in getting inflation sustainably back to their targets, could prove to be the hardest.CHART 2: Service sector inflation199019941998200220062010201420182022Source: ASR Ltd. / LSEG Datastream (2024)Amid the improving inflation backdrop, financial markets have pivoted to pricing-in a material amount of interest rate cuts this year in the major advanced economies, with some observers even expecting cuts as early as the current quarter. At his December press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a surprisingly dovish stance, and the Summary of Economic Projections suggested that the committee expects three interest rate cuts in 2024 (Federal Reserve Board, 2023), albeit still around half the number currently expected by financial markets. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) adopted more hawkish postures in December, although ECB President Christine Lagarde has subsequently suggested that monetary easing could begin in the summer. Reflecting the change in market expectations around central banks, particularly the Fed, there has been quite a material easing in global financial conditions since late October, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields falling sharply, the S&P500 rising strongly, and the U.S. dollar weakening in broad trade weighted terms.52024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTY | SECTION 1: PROSPECTS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2024Focusing on the prospects for 2024, global growth is likely to come in materially below its average once again, with a broadly similar pace of expansion as last year. The World Bank forecasts an increase of 2.9% in global gross domestic product (GDP) (see Table 1), while the OECD expects a slightly slower gain of 2.7% (OECD 2023). Growth is likely to be well below its average in advanced economies as, despite the likelihood of some monetary easing probably beginning in the summer, central banks maintain restrictive monetary policies to ensure victory in their battles against inflation. Meanwhile, fiscal policies also look set to be contractionary in the major advanced economies, while political uncertainty, amid major elections this year, as well as elevated geopolitical tensions, could weigh on confidence and spending.TABLE 1: World Bank economic forecasts20222023E2024EWorld*3.332.9AEs2.51.51.2EMs3.743.9EMXC4.23.23.5China3.05.24.5U.S.1.92.51.6Euro area3.40.40.7India*7.26.36.4Source: World Bank 2024*World is GDP growth based on Purchasing Power Parity calculation methodology. AEs = Advanced Economies, EMs = Emerging market and developing economies, EMXC = EMs excluding China*The India numbers are based on fiscal years.Similarly, growth in emerging economies is generally expected to be below its average, although a key factor behind this is the slower growth in the Chinese economy than the heady pace of previous decades. Growth in emerging economies excluding China is actually expected to improve modestly in 2024 from that of 2023, with the World Bank forecasting growth of 3.5% in 2024 versus 3.2% in 2023. Clearly, a number of emerging and developing countries will remain under pressure, given slow growth in the advanced economies and tight global financial conditions, but a number of important countriesare likely to register a pretty solid performance in 2024. For example, the World Bank forecasts growth of 6.4%, 4.9%, 4.1%, 2.6% and 2.6% in India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Poland and Mexico, respectively. The start of policy easing by the Fed should prove helpful for emerging economies, as would any further weakening in the U.S. dollar.THE RISKS TO GLOBAL GROWTH REMAIN TO THE DOWNSIDE THIS YEAR, AMID A WORLD CHARACTERISED BY SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL VOLATILITY.The risks to global growth remain to the downside this year, amid a world characterised by significant uncertainty and potential volatility. These include a major risk that the lagged impact of global monetary tightening could lead to a harder landing in the advanced economies, and/or major financial stresses. This risk is perhaps not quite as heightened as looked likely in late autumn, amid the subsequent somewhat loosening in global financial conditions, a rising chance of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, and given what looks like a pivot towards monetary easing by advanced economies central banks this year. Nevertheless, if inflation remains stubborn, forcing a major repricing of financial market expectations for interest rates, then the magnitude of this risk would increase again.Meanwhile, geopolitical risks have become even more elevated in recent months, with a rising risk of a broader escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The attacks by Houthi rebels have already fuelled a sharp decline in shipping through the Suez Canal (see Chart 3), and events in the Middle East clearly have the potential to cause a large increase in energy prices and global shipping costs. This would clearly be very damaging for busines