未来50年的趋势报告（英）.pdf
Trends for the Next 50 YearsThis report was created under the direction of the IE Center for the Governance of ChangeTrends for the Next 50 YearsCenter for the Governance of ChangeReport highlights3conclusionintroductionChapter 1Chapter 2Chapter 3Chapter 4Chapter 5contributors690173349627396Emerging Technologies,Governance,and EthicsEconomy and ProsperityEnvironment and Climate CrisisExistential RisksEducation and the Future of KnowledgeIn the next 50 years,the citizens from G20 countries believe thathighlightshighlightsArtifjcial Intelligence will seamlessly integrate into our daily lives,enhancing productivity in the workplace.AIhealthcare biotechnologywealth distributionPersonalized healthcare,empowered by the advances in biotechnology,will be a beacon of hope.job market The population will be richer in the future,but the distribution of wealth will be more unequal.A changing job market with potentially growing unemployment will require enhancing skills and learning new technologies.highlightsThe climate crisis will worsen,yet a government-led energy transition may pave the way for a greener future.collaborating with othersclimate crisisEducationholistic approachIn case of a catastrophic event that puts humanity at risk,citizens would try to counter the threat,mobilizing and collaborating with others.Education will play a pivotal role in shaping the future,with AI-led classrooms and emphasis on innovation and entrepreneurship.The Humanities will be essential in the future of knowledge,underlining a holistic approach that combines technology with human values.introductionintroduction50 years ago,the futurist Alvin Toffmer wrote Future Shock,a book in which he introduced the notion of an acute disorientation caused by experiencing rapid change in a short time span.He theorized that the accelerated pace of technological and societal advancements would leave numerous individuals feeling alienated,leading to severe disorientation and heightened stress.Toffmer further argued that many of the societal challenges faced were direct repercussions of this Future Shock1.Among Toffmers predictions,one of the most remarkable was the anticipation of the rise of the internet,foreseeing that a knowledge-based economy would eclipse the post-industrial age.This transition is today evident when considering that the digital economy has been growing at an annual rate of over 10%,outpacing the growth of the broader economy2.He also foresaw the development of cloning3.Nevertheless,not all of Toffmers predictions materialized.For instance,he posited the disintegration of cities.Today,however,about 56%of the global population,or 4.4 billion people,reside in urban areas.Projections suggest that by 2050,this fjgure will more than double,with nearly seven in ten people living in cities.Toffmer also believed that humans would inhabit artifjcial cities beneath the sea,a vision that remains unrealized.The decades in which Toffmer penned Future Shock witnessed the inception of futures thinking and foresight studies.Today,beyond mere predictions of future events,foresight empowers us to proactively shape our responses to the challenges and opportunities of the next 50 years,helping us prepare for an ever-evolving world.1 Toffmer,A.(1970).Future shock.Random House.2 World Bank.(2021).Digital economy overview.World Bank.https:/www.worldbank.org/en/topic/digital-economy/overview3 Schneider,K.(2016).Alvin Toffmer,Author of Future Shock,Dies at 87.The New York Times.https:/ Toffmer did not explicitly refer to foresight,his ideas about future shock laid the groundwork for the discipline.The terminology often becomes muddled,with terms like foresight,“forecast”and prediction bandied about interchangeably,though inaccurately.Forecasting is the science of positing what tomorrow might hold based on the lessons of today.Its an everyday exercise,akin to the familiar sentiment of wishing one had prior knowledge of current events4.Foresight,however,is not just a passive glimpse into the future;its an active exploration of potential tomorrows,where the aim is not just to predict but to prepare.Through a combination of scenarios,narratives,and immersive experiences,foresight seeks to push boundaries,stepping beyond the conventional,and pre-empting both opportunities and pitfalls in our ever-evolving world54 Pundhir,A.(2020).Time Series Forecasting.Analytics Vidhya.https:/ Hajizadeh,A.,&Valliere,D.(2021).Entrepreneurial foresight:Discovery of future opportunities.Futures,135,102876.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102876What is foresight?introductionIn the next 50 years,change will be a constant.With the rise of generative AI and numerous disruptive technologies,our world will transform rapidly.To prepare humanity for these changes and ensure we navigate them effectively,it will be essential to engage in foresight exercises collectively,ensuring active participation from all stakeholders.The quantifjable benefjts of foresight are evident in todays landscape,as shown by many examples.In the last few years,UNICEF has been engaging in strategic foresight work,analyzing fjve signifjcant megatrends with implications for childrens well-being and UNICEFs mission.These trends include global health crises,inequality,evolving confmict dynamics,global migration,and the impact of technology on education and employment.UNICEFs child-centered foresight approach has extended to various country offjces,such as India,where key trends have been used to develop contextual scenarios.These efforts have led to the identifjcation of 17 critical themes and the creation of a forward-looking action plan within the context of the country program6.“The future cannot be predicted,but futures can be invented.”Dennis Garbor(1971 Physics Nobel Prize Laureate).1Why foresight?introduction6 Gabor,D.(1963).Inventing the Future(Secker and Warburg,London,1st ed.).(pp.184-185).Another example is Netfmix,which initially was primarily a DVD rental company.However,the company noticed the societal shift away from physical media.In 2007,they invested in streaming technology and secured content licensing agreements,launching their online streaming service.By 2013,Netfmix had garnered 30 million streaming subscribers8.As of 2023,they have 238.39 million subscribers worldwide9,leading to an annual revenue of 238.39 million in 202210.Foresight allowed Netfmix to pivot early and become a dominant force in the entertainment industry.Academic literature also supports this view.The paper“Corporate foresight and its impact on fjrm performance:A longitudinal analysis”by Rohrbeck and Kum demonstrated that fjrms with higher future preparedness signifjcantly outperformed their peers,achieving a 33%higher profjtability and 200%higher growth in 2015.Conversely,fjrms with defjciencies in future preparedness faced a performance discount ranging from 37%to 108%,underscoring the crucial role of strategic foresight in fjrm performance11.7 School of International Futures(SOIF).(2021).Features of effective systemic foresight in governments around the world-full report(p.11).Government Offjce for Science.https:/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/609aa813d3bf7f2888d18fe3/effective-systemic-foresight-governments-report.pdf.0138 Van der Pijl,P.(2019).How Netfmix shift their business model from product to service,from DVD to streaming LinkedIn post.LinkedIn.https:/ Statista.(2023).Netfmix:number of subscribers worldwide 2023.https:/ Statista.(2023).Netfmix:quarterly revenue 2013-2023.https:/ Rohrbeck,R.,&Kum,M.E.(2018).Corporate foresight and its impact on fjrm performance:A longitudinal analysis.Technological Forecasting and Social Change,129,105-116.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.12.013introductionOne of the missions of academia is to equip individuals and societies with the skills and mindset to anticipate and adapt to upcoming challenges and opportunities,particularly with regards to technology.By understanding the evolving technological landscape and shifting societal dynamics,academia can empower citizens to imagine the future.By being able to imagine the future,society becomes not just a passive observer,but an active participant,steering the course of technology toward a future that is inclusive,empowering,and aligned with the collective well-being of humanity.As IE University marks its fjrst half-century of innovative teaching,impact-oriented research,and purposeful social engagement,the whole IE community looks forward to the next 50 years with renewed energy and the same commitment to shape the future of education as a global leader in academia.To contribute with valuable knowledge to this mission,the Center for the Governance of Change-the applied research institution at IE University that studies the social impact of emerging and disruptive technologies and leverages foresight to advance governance solutions-has used collective intelligence to conduct a foresight exercise that identifjes and analyzes some of the big global trends and key drivers of change that will determine how our world will look in the 2070s.Why IE University and its Center for the Governance of Change?introductionThis report harnesses collective intelligence,as valuable fjndings often emerge from having diverse groups of people co-develop new ideas or evaluate existing ones as a group.This approach typically involves engaging citizens,experts,companies,international organizations,and other stakeholders in the process of thinking about the future1213.It also transcends the traditional notion of relying solely on a few gurus and instead fosters diverse perspectives,encompassing both public opinion and expert insights.By incorporating the perception of the public and the views of experts,we challenge the foresight ecosystem to be more intentional and inclusive in its practice of the discipline.Data expert Stefaan Verhulst explains that the way in which a question is framed often determines,or at the very least signifjcantly infmuences,the answers obtained.In an era marked by the exponential growth of information,we have decided not only to use existing data when defjning the questions,but also to consider the broader context of public opinion.“In cases where matters relating to social are considered,the core structure is the public sphere and the most powerful stakeholders are not engineers or inventors,but ordinary people.”Foresight powered by collective intelligence.introduction12 Leimeister,J.M.(2010).Collective intelligence.Business&Information Systems Engineering,2(4),245248.13 Malone,T.,Laubacher,R.,&Dellarocas,C.(2010).The collective intelligence genome,MIT Sloan Management Review 51Yuichi Washida(Hitotsubashi University)and Akihisa Yahata(Japan Research Institute).We hope the insights featured in this report inspire foresight professionals and data scientists to leverage quantitative variables,with public opinion serving as a driver for futures research.This approach can not only enrich the literature of foresight but also enhance the science of forecasting.Moreover,this report offers an opportunity to explore resilience strategies,as foresight allows us to assess how people and communities are getting ready for the future.These insights can guide practical actions by governments,international organizations,and businesses as they identify trends in resilience that might require support.We opted to use surveys as a means to incorporate collective intelligence into this foresight exercise.Traditionally,focus groups have been the preferred method to address broader socio-economic,environmental,or cultural themes,rather than surveys14.However,there are instances where surveys have been effectively used in foresight studies to address more expansive issues.Surveys serve as a pivotal instrument to identify shifts in citizens behavioral patterns15.For instance,as electric vehicle production surges,manufacturers use surveys to discern consumer receptivity and anticipate emerging market dynamics.In Australia,for example,a group of researchers combined traditional scenario planning with publicMethodologyintroduction14 Chambers,I.,et al.(2019).A public opinion survey of four future scenarios for Australia in 2050.Futures,107,119-132.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.12.00215 Chan,L.,&Daim,T.(2012).Exploring the impact of technology foresight studies on innovation:Case of BRIC countries.Futures,44(6),618-630.introductionopinion survey methodologies.Their approach fjrst identifjed key drivers for Australias future and then leveraged these drivers to craft four plausible future scenarios for the country by 205016.Similarly,in Japan,researchers Washida and Yahata utilized surveys as part of their horizon scanning efforts,a crucial foresight methodology.Their research aimed to evaluate the predictive accuracy of future scenarios developed through horizon scanning17.The Chinese Academy of Sciences has been conducting long-term technology foresight surveys,emphasizing the role of surveys in their foresight activities18.In our pursuit of collective intelligence foresight,we have opted for an issue-centered scanning approach,as articulated by Amanatidou et al.(2012)19,and used a methodology that draws inspiration from Delphi;,one of the most consolidated techniques for harnessing collective intelligence in surveys,as proved by Green,K.C.,Armstrong,J.S.,&Graefe,A.(2008)20.16 Ibid.17 Washida,Y.,&Yahata,A.(2020).Predictive value of horizon scanning for future scenarios.Foresight-The journal of future studies,strategic thinking and policy,23(1),17-32.https:/doi.org/10.1108/FS-05-2020-004718 Dreyer,I.,&Stang,G.(2013).Foresight in governments practices and trends around the world.European Union Institute for Security Studies.19Amanatidou,E.,Butter,M.,Carabias,V.,Knnl,T.,Leis,M.,Saritas,O.,Schaper-Rinkel,P.and van Rij,V.(2012),“On concepts and methods in horizon scanning:lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues”,Science and Public Policy,Vol.39 No.2,pp.208-221.20 Green,K.C.,Armstrong,J.S.,&Graefe,A.(2008).Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups:Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared.http:/dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1153124introductionWe initiated our analysis by anchoring it in existing foresight frameworks and specifjc scenarios.Futures scenarios,in the context of foresight and strategic planning,refer to imaginative and plausible narratives about different potential futures.This foundational step allowed us to build upon established scenarios and frameworks that are explained in each chapter.consolidated scenarios or foresight frameworks1st iteration 2nd iteration survey in G20 countriesOur unfolds over three iterations:processMoving into the second iteration,we quantifjed these scenarios by integrating public opinion.From the scenarios,we derived a set of 17 questions that we posed to a carefully selected sample of 8,000 citizens across 20 countries(the 19 countries comprising the G20,plus Spain):Argentina,Australia,Brazil,Can
