AliceBowsLarkin_2015G[爱丽丝 波斯-拉金][如何应对气候变化].pdf
www.XiYuS锡育软件Over our lifetimes,weve all contributed to climate change.在我们的一生中,我们每个人的行为都影响了气候变化。00:12Actions,choices and behaviors will have led to an increase ingreenhouse gas emissions.我们的日常行为和选择 都会导致温室气体排放的增加。00:17And I think that thats quite a powerful thought.我认为这种想法很有道理。00:26But it does have the potential to make us feel guilty when wethink about decisions we might have made around where totravel to,how often and how,about the energy that wechoose to use in our homes or in our workplaces,or quitesimply the lifestyles that we lead and enjoy.但它的确有可能让我们感到内疚,想一想我们做过的关于去哪里 旅行的决定,旅行的频率以及方式。关于我们选择在家里或者办公室里 使用什么能源,或仅仅只是我们所倡导和享受的生活方式。00:29But we can also turn that thought on its head,and think thatif weve had such a profound but a negative impact on ourclimate already,then we have an opportunity to influence theamount of future climate change that we will need to adaptto.但我们也可以从全新的角度来看待这一想法,也就是说,我们已经对气候产生了 极其深刻且负面的影响,那么我们就有机会去影响未来的气候变化,而我们也必须能够适应这种变化。00:51So we have a choice.所以我们面临一个选择。01:09We can either choose to start to take climate changeseriously,and significantly cut and mitigate our greenhousegas emissions,and then we will have to adapt to less of theclimate change impacts in future.我们可以选择开始认真对待气候变化,大幅减少温室气体排放量,以减少未来气候变化带来的影响。01:10lifetimes:n.一生;使用期(lifetime的复数形式)contributed:adj.贡献的,分配的;已缴入的/v.有助于,贡献(contribute的过去分词)workplaces:n.管理工作场所(workplace的复数)lifestyles:n.生活方式(lifestyle的复数)significantly:adv.意味深长地;值得注目地 mitigate:vt.使缓和,使减轻/vi.减轻,缓和下来 impacts:n.影响(impact的复数);力冲击/v.压紧;冲撞;对产生不良影响(impact的三单形式)Alternatively,we can continue to really ignore the climatechange problem.或者我们也可以继续忽略气候变化问题,01:25But if we do that,we are also choosing to adapt to very muchmore powerful climate impacts in future.但如果这样做,我们同时也就选择了 在未来去适应更强的气候变化。01:30And not only that.不仅如此,01:38As people who live in countries with high per capitaemissions,were making that choice on behalf of others aswell.作为生活在高人均排放国家的居民,我们也在代表其他地区的人民做出选择。01:39But the choice that we dont have is a no climate changefuture.但我们无法选择的是,一个没有气候变化的未来。01:47Over the last two decades,our government negotiators andpolicymakers have been coming together to discuss climatechange,and theyve been focused on avoiding a two-degreecentigrade warming above pre-industrial levels.在过去的20年里,我们的政府谈判代表和政策制定者一起 讨论了气候变化的问题,他们聚焦在避免高于前工业化水平 2的升温。01:53Thats the temperature thats associated with dangerousimpacts across a range of different indicators,to humansand to the environment.这一温度在一系列不同指标上 对人类,对环境,都有着危险的影响。02:08So two degrees centigrade constitutes dangerous climatechange.所以这2与危险的气候变化紧密相关。02:17Alternatively:adv.非此即彼;二者择一地;作为一种选择 capita:n.头数(尤指牲口)on behalf of:代表;为了 negotiators:n.谈判代表(negotiator的复数)policymakers:决策人 pre-industrial:adj.工业化以前的 indicators:n.指示器(indicator的复数);指示灯 constitutes:v.构成(constitute的单三形式);组成But dangerous climate change can be subjective.但危险的气候变化也可以很主观。02:22So if we think about an extreme weather event that mighthappen in some part of the world,and if that happens in apart of the world where there is good infrastructure,试想一个极端天气事件,发生在世界的某个地方。如果这个地方有着良好的基础设施,02:24TED演讲者：Alice Bows-Larkin|爱丽丝 波斯-拉金演讲标题：Climate change is happening.Here.s how we adapt|如何应对气候变化内容概要：Imagine the hottest day you.ve ever experienced.Now imagine it.s six,10 or 12degrees hotter.According to climate researcher Alice Bows-Larkin,that.s the type of future instore for us if we don.t significantly cut our greenhouse gas emissions now.She suggests thatit.s time we do things differentlya whole system change,in factand seriously considertrading economic growth for climate stability.想象一下你经历过的最热的一天。再给那一天加上6，10或是12。气候研究学者爱丽丝 波斯-拉金告诉我们如果现在不大幅减少温室气体的排放，这就是我们将面对的未来。她表示现在正是我们做出改变的时候改变整个系统认真考虑牺牲经济发展来换取气候稳定。where there are people that are well-insured and so on,thenthat impact can be disruptive.当地的人们都有着很好的保障等等,那这影响可能会是破坏性的。02:33It can cause upset,it could cause cost.它可能会产生不必要的麻烦和经济损失,02:40It could even cause some deaths.甚至可能会导致一些人死亡。02:43But if that exact same weather event happens in a part of theworld where there is poor infrastructure,or where people arenot well-insured,or theyre not having good supportnetworks,then that same climate change impact could bedevastating.但是如果同样的天气事件发生在世界上的某地,那里的基础设施很糟糕,或者人民的生命财产没有很好的保障,或者他们没有很好的社会支持网络,那同样的气候变化可能会带来毁灭性的影响。02:45It could cause a significant loss of home,but it could alsocause significant amounts of death.它可能会导致大量人流离失所,也可能会导致大量人员的死亡。03:00So this is a graph of the CO2 emissions at the left-hand sidefrom fossil fuel and industry,and time from before theIndustrial Revolution out towards the present day.这幅图左侧是由化石燃料和工业生产 产生的二氧化碳排放量,时间段是从工业革命前 直到现在。03:07disruptive:adj.破坏的;分裂性的;制造混乱的 devastating:adj.毁灭性的；全然的/v.摧毁(devastate的ing形式)；毁坏 left-hand:adj.左手的;左侧的And whats immediately striking about this is that emissionshave been growing exponentially.值得注意的是,排放量在以指数级增长。03:18如果我们把目光聚焦到1950年之后,我们在1988年成立了 政府间气候变化专业委员会。1992年在里约热内卢召开了地球峰会,03:25then rolling on a few years,in 2009 we had the CopenhagenAccord,where it established avoiding a two-degreetemperature rise in keeping with the science and on thebasis of equity.几年后于2009年签订了哥本哈根协定,在符合科学和保持公正的基础上 来避免这2的升温。03:39And then in 2012,we had the Rio+20 event.之后在2012年我们召开了里约+20会议。03:52And all the way through,during all of these meetings andmany others as well,emissions have continued to rise.这一路走来,经过所有这些会议 和各种其他活动,排放量却依旧持续增长。03:56And if we focus on our historical emission trend in recentyears,and we put that together with our understanding ofthe direction of travel in our global economy,then we aremuch more on track for a four-degree centigrade globalwarming than we are for the two-degree centigrade.而如果我们聚焦在近几年的排放趋势,结合我们对于 全球经济走向的理解,那么我们其实正在迈向4的全球变暖趋势,而并非2。04:04Now,lets just pause for a moment and think about this four-degree global average temperature.现在让我们暂停并 思考一下这个4的全球平均升温。04:24Most of our planet is actually made up of the sea.地球上大部分地区是海洋。04:30exponentially:adv.以指数方式 in keeping with:符合;与一致 on the basis of:根据;基于 equity:n.公平,公正;衡平法;普通股;抵押资产的净值 made up of:由组成,由构成Now,because the sea has a greater thermal inertia than theland,the average temperatures over land are actually goingto be higher than they are over the sea.因为海洋比陆地有更大的热惯性,所以陆地上的平均温度 会比海上的平均温度高。04:34The second thing is that we as human beings dontexperience global average temperatures.还有就是我们作为人类不会体验到 全球的平均温度。04:43We experience hot days,cold days,rainy days,especially ifyou live in Manchester like me.我们会体验到热天,冷天,雨天,特别是如果你和我一样住在曼彻斯特。04:49So now put yourself in a city center.想象一下你身处一个城市中心。04:55Imagine somewhere in the world:Mumbai,Beijing,New York,London.在世界的某个地方:孟买,北京,纽约,伦敦。04:58Its the hottest day that youve ever experienced.这是你经历过的最热的一天。05:03Theres sun beating down,theres concrete and glass allaround you.火辣辣的太阳直射下来,混凝土和玻璃建筑环绕着你。05:07Now imagine that same day-but its six,eight,maybe 10 to12 degrees warmer on that day during that heat wave.想象在同样的一天 但是要比当天的热浪高出6,8,甚至10-12。05:11Thats the kind of thing were going to experience under afour-degree global average temperature scenario.这就是我们即将要经历的 全球平均升温4的情景。05:20And the problem with these extremes,and not just thetemperature extremes,but also the extremes in terms ofstorms and other climate impacts,is our infrastructure is justnot set up to deal with these sorts of events.这些极端气候带来的问题 不仅仅是极端的温度,还有极端的风暴以及其他气候影响,而我们建造的基础设施还并不能承受这些极端事件。05:27thermal:adj.热的;热量的;保热的/n.上升的热气流 inertia:n.力惯性;惰性,迟钝;不活动 hottest:adj.热的;最热门的;热烈的scenario:n.方案;情节;剧本 extremes:n.狂热分子,极端条件 in terms of:依据;按照;在方面;以措词So our roads and our rail networks have been designed tolast for a long time and withstand only certain amounts of我们的道路和铁路网络 被设计成只在一定程度的影响下 才能经久耐用,世界各地都是如此。05:40last for a long time and withstand only certain amounts ofimpacts in different parts of the world.And this is going to be extremely challenged.而这将面临极度的挑战。05:48Our power stations are expected to be cooled by water to acertain temperature to remain effective and resilient.我们的发电站本来是靠水来冷却到 一个特定的温度,来保持设备的有效性和弹性。05:51And our buildings are designed to be comfortable within aparticular temperature range.我们的建筑是被设计成在一定的温度范围内 才能使人感到舒适。05:58And this is all going to be significantly challenged under afour-degree-type scenario.而这些都将在4升温的情景下 面临极大的挑战。06:03Our infrastructure has not been designed to cope with this.而我们的基础设施还无法应对这些挑战。06:08So if we go back,also thinking about four degrees,its notjust the direct impacts,but also some indirect impacts.如果我们再想想4的升温,这些影响并不是直接的,还有一些间接影响。06:14So if we take food security,for example.比如说食品安全。06:22Maize and wheat yields in some parts of the world areexpected to be up to 40 percent lower under a four-degreescenario,rice up to 30 percent lower.玉米和小麦的产量 在世界的某些地方 最高将会有40%的下降,在4升温的情景下,大米的产量最高会有30%的下降。06:25resilient:adj.弹回的,有弹力的 cope with:处理,应付 Maize:adj.黄色的,玉米色的/n.玉米;黄色,玉米色 yields:n.生产量,投资效益(yield的复数形式)/v.经生产;投降,力屈服(yield的三单形式)www.XiYuS锡育软件This will be absolutely devastating for global food security.这对全球食品安全绝对是灾难性的。06:38So all in all,the kinds of impacts anticipated under this four-degree centigrade scenario are going to be incompatiblewith global organized living.总之在升温4的情况下 设想出来的种种影响,都将会和全球有序的生存模式相矛盾。06:42So back to our trajectories and our graphs of four degreesand two degrees.回到2和4的图表中来,06:55Is it reasonable still to focus on the two-degree path?专注于2的路径是否还是合理的？07:00There are quite a lot of my colleagues and other scientistswho would say that its now too late to avoid a two-degreewarming.有许多我的同事和其他科学家 也许会说现在已经无法避免2升温了。07:04But I would just like to draw on my own research on energysystems,on food systems,aviation and also shipping,just tosay that I think there is still a small fighting chance ofavoiding this two-degree dangerous climate change.但根据我自己在 能源系统,食品系统,航空以及海运方面的研究,我认为在避免这危险的2气候变化上 我们仍有很小的胜算。07:11But we really need to get to grips with the numbers to workout how to do it.但我们必须要掌握确切的数据 来谋划对策。07:27all in all:总而言之;头等重要的东西 anticipated:adj.预期的;期望的/v.预料(anticipate的过去分词);盼望 incompatible:adj.不相容的；矛盾的；不能同时成立的/n.互不相容的人或事物 trajectories:n.轨迹;轨道线(trajectory的复数形式)graphs:n.数图形,图表;曲线图(graph的复数)/v.把绘入图;用图表表示;描绘(graph的第三人称单数)draw on:利用;吸收;戴上;临近 grips:vbl.抓爪So if you focus in on this trajectory and these graphs,theyellow circle there highlights that the departure from the redfour-degree pathway to the two-degree green pathway isimmediate.所以如果你仔细看图表中的这些轨迹,这个黄色的圈标注出了 红色的4路径 和绿色2路径的分叉点已经迫在眉睫。07:31And thats because of cumulative emissions,or the carbonbudget.这是基于积累排放量,或是碳预算的结果。07:45So in other words,because of the lights and the projectorsthat are on in this room right now,the CO2 that is going intoour atmosphere as a result of that electricity consumptionlasts a very long time.也就是说,由于这个房间的 灯光和投影仪的运作,二氧化碳被排放到大气中,这种由消耗电能而产生的碳排放 会在大气中停留很长一段时间。07:49Some of it will be in our atmosphere for a century,maybemuch longer.有些甚至会在大气中停留一个世纪或是更长。08:01It will accumulate,and greenhouse gases tend to becumulative.它会积累,而温室气体有积累性。08:05And that tells us something about these trajectories.这就解释了这些轨迹的走向。08:09First of all,it tells us that its the area under these curves thatmatter,not where we reach at a particular date in future.首先,这些曲线之下的区域才是关键,而不是在未来的某一天达到某个值。08:12trajectory:n.物轨道,轨线;航军弹道 highlights:n.拔萃,集锦;挑染(highlight的复数形式)/v.使突出(highlight的三单形式);强调 pathway:n.路,道;途径,路径 cumulative:adj.累积的 projectors:n.放映机(projector复数);幻灯机投影机accumulate:vi.累积;积聚/vt.积攒 First of all:adv.首先 curves:n.数曲线;弯曲状(curve的复数形式)/v.弯曲;使弯曲(curve的第三人称单数)And thats important,because it doesnt matter if we comeup with some amazing whiz-bang technology to sort outour energy problem on the last day of 2049,just in the nick这很重要,因为这并不取决于 我们能否在2049年的最后一天 开发出什么高端的科技,在千钧一发之际解决了能源问题。08:19our energy problem on the last day of 2049,just in the nickof time to sort things out.Because in the meantime,emissions will have accumulated.因为在这个过程中碳排放依然会不断累积。08:30So if we continue on this red,four-degree centigradescenario pathway,the longer we continue on it,that will needto be made up for in later years to keep the same carbonbudget,to keep the same area under the curve,which meansthat that trajectory,the red one there,becomes steeper.所以如果我们继续沿着这条4红线,在上面继续的时间越久,之后就需要弥补的就越多。来保持相同的碳预算,使曲线下方的区域面积不变。也就是说这条红色的轨迹会变得更加陡峭。08:34So in other words,if we dont reduce emissions in the short tomedium term,then well have to make more significant year-on-year emission reductions.也就是说,如果我们不减少中短期的排放量,那就必须在未来更为显着地减少年同比排放量。08:54We also know that we have to decarbonize our energysystem.我们还必须给我们的能源系统脱碳。09:02But if we dont start to cut emissions in the short to mediumterm,then we will have to do that even sooner.但如果我们不减少中短期的排放,那我们就必须更迅速地行动起来。09:06come up with:提出;想出;赶上 sort out:挑选出;分类 in the nick of time:及时;恰好 in the meantime:在此期间;于此际 accumulated:adj.累积的;累计的;达到/v.累积(accumulate的过去分词)steeper:n.浸润器;浸泡用的桶子/adj.陡峭的,险峻的 reductions:n.减少(reduction的复数形式);缩小So this poses really big challenges for us.这对我们来说是一个很大的挑战。09:13The other thing it does is tells us something about energypolicy.这个图标还告诉了我们关于能源政策的信息。09:18If you live in a part of the world where per capita emissionsare already high,it points us towards reducing energydemand.如果你生活在一个人均排放量已经很高的地区,那我们就需要减少对能源的需求。09:21And thats because with all the will in the world,the large-scale engineering infrastructure that we need to roll outrapidly to decarbonize the supply side of our energy systemis just simply not going to happen in time.而因为无论我们怎么努力,那些需要我们及时推出来减少能源供应方碳排放的 大型基础设施工程 都无法及时完成。09:29So it doesnt matter whether we choose nuclear power orcarbon capture and storage,upscale our biofuel production,or go for a much bigger roll-out of wind turbines and waveturbines.所以无论我们是选择核能 还是碳捕获和储存,增加生物燃料的产能,或是提高风力发电和潮汐发电机组的转速。09:42All of that will take time.所有这一切都需要时间。09:53So because its the area under the curve that matters,weneed to focus on energy efficiency,but also on energyconservation-in other words,using less energy.而因为曲线下方的区域才是关键,我们就需要专注在能源利用效率上,还有节约能源也就是少消耗能源。09:55poses:姿势 large-scale:adj.大规模的,大范围的;大比例尺的 roll out:铺开;滚出 upscale:adj.迎合高层次消费者的;质优价高的/vt.升高一级 biofuel:n.生物燃料 roll-out:n.初次公开展出;计转出 turbines:n.动力涡轮;动力涡轮机(turbine的复数);动力汽轮机 conservation:n.保存，保持；保护And if we do that,that also means that as we continue to rollout the supply-side technology,we will have less of a job todo if weve actually managed to reduce our energyconsumption,because we will then need less infrastructureon the supply side.如果我们这么做,那也就意味着 随着能源供应科技的发展,如果我们能确实减少能源消耗,那我们的负担就会越来越轻,因为我们将不再需要那么多能源来供应基础设施。10:05Another issue that we really need to grapple with is the issueof well-being and equity.另一个需要我们解决的问题是 福祉,以及公平。10:21There are many parts of the world where the standard ofliving needs to rise.世界上很多地区的生活水平仍有待提高。10:27Bbut with energy systems currently reliant on fossil fuel,asthose economies grow so will emissions.而现在的能源系统依赖于化石燃料,随着这些地区经济的增长,排放量也会增长。10:33And now,if were all constrained by the same amount ofcarbon budget,that means that if some parts of the worldsemissions are needing to rise,then other parts of the worldsemissions need to reduce.而现在如果我们都受限于等量的碳预算,那就意味着要提高部分地区的排放量,同时减少其他地区的排放量。10:41So that poses very significant challenges for wealthy nations.这对于发达国家来说一个很大的挑战,10:53Because according to our research,if youre in a countrywhere per capita emissions are really high-so NorthAmerica,Europe,Australia-emissions redu
