AmarInamdar_2017G[艾玛尔·伊南达][离网太阳能系统的巨大潜力].pdf

www.XiYuS锡育软件Theres something really incredible happening.在这个世界上,有一些 不可思议的变化正在发生。00:12So theres over a billion people who have no access to energywhatsoever across the world,620 million of them here inAfrica.目前全世界有 超过十亿的人用不上电。其中6200万在非洲。00:14It costs about 1,500 dollars to connect each household up tothe grid.每户家庭连接电网 所需的费用是1500美元。00:23If you are going to wait for it,it takes about nine years,onaverage,and that feels like a lifetime when youre trying tomake that happen.如果你想等攒够了钱,大概平均需要九年时间,等你成功连上电时,感觉好像一辈子都快过去了。00:28Thats kind of unbelievable,and its also unacceptable.这简直是难以置信,也是无法接受的。00:35So lets do something about it.所以,是时候该采取行动了。00:39The lightbulb comes from this idea that you have an energysystem thats made up of the ideas of Tesla and the ideas ofThomas Edison.拥有一个能源系统是 电灯泡诞生的前提。这个发明创意是由特斯拉 和托马斯爱迪生的理论综合而成的。00:42There was an evolution that said its not just about thelightbulb,its about the whole system,the whole energysystem that goes with that lightbulb,and what happened inthat gilded age was the creation of an industrial system thatevery country around the world has now started to emulate.这场革命可不仅仅是关于电灯泡,而是关于整个能源系统,与电灯泡相适应的整个能源系统。在镀金时代（美国内战后至一战前）,美国建立了工业体系。而如今,世界各国都纷纷效仿。00:52made up of:由组成,由构成 gilded:adj.镀金的,装饰的;富有的/v.给镀金(gild的过去分词)emulate:vt.仿真;模仿;尽力赶上;同竞争/n.仿真;仿效So to get to the appliances,you need to have power stations.所以要用上家电,就得有发电站。01:07From power stations,you need to have infrastructure,andthat infrastructure takes you to the point of havingelectricity,and you get to the lightbulbs and the appliancesthat we all take for granted.要想建设发电站,你需要有基础设施 来帮助你实现通电,然后你才能用上电灯泡和家用电器。这一切在我们眼中,都是理所当然的。01:10But the amazing thing,in a way,is that theres a revolutionhappening in the villages and towns all around us here inEast Africa.但其可贵之处在于,这场革命发生在 东非的农村和乡镇中。01:20And the revolution is an echo of the cell phone revolution.这场革命是对手机革命的回应。01:28Its wireless,and that revolution is about solar and its aboutdistributed solar.它也是无线的,是关于分布式太阳能发电的革命。01:34Photons are wireless,they fall on every rooftop,and theygenerate enough power to be sufficient for every householdneed.光子是无线的,它们洒落在每一个屋顶上,能产生巨大的电能,足以满足每个家庭的用电需要。01:39So thats an incredible thing.所以,这是一个极其伟大的革命。01:48appliances:电气用具 to the point:中肯,扼要;切题 take for granted:认为理所当然 in a way:在某种程度上;有点儿;十分激动 echo:vt.反射；重复/vi.随声附和；发出回声/n.回音；效仿 wireless:adj.无线的;无线电的/n.无线电/vt.用无线电报与联系;用无线电报发送/vi.打无线电报;打无线电话 Photons:n.物光子;量子光量子(photon的复数)fall on:落到;指向rooftop:n.屋顶/adj.屋顶上的 sufficient:adj.足够的；充分的Theres also a problem with it.不过有一个问题。01:50Up until now,the technology hasnt been there to make ithappen,and the mindset has been that we have to have thegrid to provide industrial growth and let countries developand create jobs and industrialize.直到现在,这项技术 还未能在东非成功推行,而我们的理念是,我们必须有电网,才能促进工业增长,让各国蓬勃发展,创造更多就业机会,实现工业化社会。01:53TED演讲者：Amar Inamdar|艾玛尔伊南达演讲标题：The thrilling potential for off-grid solar energy|离网太阳能系统的巨大潜力内容概要：Theres an energy revolution happening in villages and towns across Africa-off-grid solar energy is becoming a viable alternative to traditional electricity systems.In a bold talkabout a true leapfrog moment,Amar Inamdar introduces us to proud owners of off-grid solarkits-and explains how this technology has the opportunity to meet two extraordinary goals:energy access for all and a low-carbon future.Every household a proud producer as well asconsumer of energy,Inamdar says.Thats the democracy of energy.(Followed by a briefQ&A with TED Curator Chris Anderson)在非洲，各个乡镇都发生了能源革命。离网太阳能系统正在取代传统电力系统。艾玛尔伊南达（AmarInamdar）在演讲中大胆地向我们展示了这一真正的跳跃，并介绍了以拥有离网太阳能组件而引以自豪的业主们，还解释了这项技术如何能实现”全民通电“和“低碳未来“这两个非凡目标。“每个家庭都是骄傲的能源生产者和能源消费者，“他说。“这是能源的民主。”（随后是与TED策展人克里斯安德森（ChrisAnderson）的简短问答环节）。So weve gotten ourselves to the point where actually thecosts of building these grids and following that pattern ofdevelopment are really unsustainable.而我们目前面临的困境是 建造电网以及遵循这种发展模式 所需要的费用之大 实在是难以为继。02:09If you add up the deficits that all of the utilities run in Africa,sub-Saharan Africa,you get to a number of 21 billion dollarsevery year to maintain that system and keep it going.如果你把所有在非洲运行的 公共事业的赤字加起来,再加上撒哈拉以南非洲地区的,你得到的数字将会是 每年210亿美元,需要这样一笔巨大的资金才能维护这个系统继续运行。02:19So an extraordinary amount of resources thats been put in tocreating a system that ultimately we will have to wait a verylong time for,and when it comes,it often doesnt come withsufficient robustness to allow us to go down that path todevelopment.因此大量的资源 都已经被投入于建设这个系统,但结果,这个系统需要我们 等很久才能完全落实,等到真正建成的那天,这个体系往往缺乏足够的稳固性,无法维持国家的持续发展。02:35mindset:n.心态;倾向;习惯;精神状态 grids:n.数网格(grid的复数形式);栅格 unsustainable:adj.无法支撑的;不可证实的;不能成立的 deficits:n.财政赤字,亏损(deficit的复数形式)utilities:n.公用事业;实用工具,计实用程序;公共事业设备;公用程式(utility的复数)sub-Saharan:撒哈拉以南地区 robustness:n.自鲁棒性;计稳健性;健壮性So what a shame.这实在是太遗憾了。02:52But heres whats happening,and heres the opportunity thatI think we should all get excited about.但是也有好消息。我认为这其中存在着 巨大的机遇等待我们发掘。02:54So theres a group of companies that have been chippingaway at this problem over the last 10 years,and this group ofcompanies have recognized the reality that theres a greatbig nuclear reactor up there in the sky,那么有一些公司 在过去十年里一直在尝试 一步一步解决这个问题,这些公司 已经意识到有一个超大型核反应堆 就处于我们头顶上的天空,02:59and that Africa is more endowed with that solar power thatcomes from the sky,the sun,than almost any other continent.而非洲的太阳能资源更是得天独厚,在非洲,太阳赐予的能量 几乎比任何其他大陆都要多。03:12So the opportunity has come to convert some of that solarpower,wireless power,into energy at the household level.因此机会就在于将部分太阳能,这种无线能源转化为家用电能。03:22And three things have happened at the same time.在此过程中,还同时发生了三个变化。03:31First,the costs of solar productivity have come down.一是太阳能发电的成本已经下降了。03:33So putting a panel on your roof and generating power fromit,that cost has absolutely collapsed over the last 30 years,and its gone down by 95 percent.因此,在你家屋顶上 安装太阳能板来发电,这一成本在过去的30年间 已经大幅下降了,降幅达95。03:37chipping:n.破片;碎屑 reactor:n.化工反应器;核反应堆;起反应的人 endowed with:被赋予;天生具有 collapsed:adj.倒塌的;暴跌的;收缩的;倾陷了的/v.倒塌;崩溃(collapse的过去分词);价格暴跌Second,the appliance network.二是关于家电网络。03:46So the group of appliances that weve all gotten used to,weall want and we all need,we all see as part of our everydaylives that give us health and security,those appliances havecome down in cost.这些家用电器我们都已经用习惯了,它们是我们想要甚至必需的,被我们视作是日常生活的一部分,保障了我们的健康和安全,而那些电器的成本也都下降了。03:49So if you take the LED lightbulb,for example,a very simplething,theyre now 85 percent less than they were five yearsago,and their efficiency,when you compare them to anincandescent bulb,like the lightbulb I showed in theprevious slide,is incredible.举一个简单的例子,如果你用LED灯泡,它们现在的价格比5年前降低了85。但如果你把它们的效率与白炽灯进行比较,就是我在之前的幻灯片中 展示过的那种灯泡,你会发现两者有着天壤之别。03:59They give you 10 times the amount of light,and they last 30times as long.LED灯提供的光能是白炽灯的10倍,而它们的寿命期白炽灯的30倍。04:17And then the last thing thats happened is of course the cellphone revolution,so were piggybacking off the cell phonerevolution,and we can now make decentralized customersmake small payments for bits of equipment and applianceswhere actually theyre now affordable.最后一件无疑是与手机革命有关,事实上我们正在借助手机革命的浪潮,目前,我们可以让零散客户为一些设备和家电付小额款项,实际上他们现在是负担得起的。04:22We can pay them off over a daily or a weekly schedule.我们可以按日或按周分期结清。04:37incandescent:adj.辉耀的;炽热的;发白热光的 piggybacking:n.背负式生产;捎带/v.肩扛;背负式装运(piggyback的现在分词)decentralized:adj.分散的;分散化,分散式;分散管理的;去中心化/vt.使分散;使分权(decentralize的过去分词)affordable:adj.负担得起的So this is an incredible change in the economy thatshappening,and its really opened up something very,veryinnovative.这对非洲经济而言 是一个巨大的飞跃。它的确带来了一些 非常有创意的变化。04:40So Im going to introduce you to a lady I met with last week.现在,我要给你们介绍 一位我上周认识的女士。04:47Her names Susan.她叫苏珊。04:50It may not look like it,but Susan is a representative of a$27billion market.也许看起来不太像,但事实上她代表着 价值270亿美元的市场。04:5127 billion dollars is what people like Susan spend every year无数像苏珊一样的人 每年共计花费270亿美元 在手机充电、手电筒电池、以及家用照明的煤油27 billion dollars is what people like Susan spend every yearon cell phone charging,flashlight batteries and kerosene tolight their homes.手机充电、手电筒电池、以及家用照明的煤油上。04:58So Susan is a proud owner of a small solar system.苏珊很自豪,她仿佛拥有了 一个小太阳系来满足她的用电需求。05:10Its a kit rather than a planetary thing,so a small solarsystem,and her small solar system allows her to have acouple of lightbulbs,and shes made this transition,thisjump,from kerosene into light.这是一整套设备而非单件器具,所以是一个小太阳系,而她的小太阳系让她 拥有了几个电灯泡,她实现了从煤油到电灯的跨越。05:14She has four or five lights and a radio.她拥有四到五个灯和一个收音机。05:26Its fantastic,and she talks about it.这真的很棒。她谈起她改变后的生活。05:28innovative:adj.革新的，创新的 charging:n.炉料;装料/v.使承担(任务等);装载;命令(charge的现在分词)flashlight:n.手电筒;闪光灯 kerosene:n.煤油，火油 solar system:天太阳系 rather than:而不是;宁可也不愿 planetary:adj.行星的She talks about her kids doing homework at night becauseshe has light.她说,她的孩子晚上 可以做功课了,因为家里有灯。05:30Im not sure what the kids feel about that.虽然我不确定孩子们感觉如何。05:34She talks about the fact that she can go out at 4am and lookafter the cows,and shes not so worried,but also,with a littletwinkle in her eye,she talks about how light turns her houseinto a home at night.但苏珊说她可以凌晨4点 出门去照料奶牛,而且丝毫不用担心天太黑,谈到动情处,她眼中 甚至有泪光在闪烁。她说在晚上,灯光将 冰冷的房子变成温暖的家。05:36Shes not scared of her own house at night,because it haslight in it,and I thought that was amazing.她现在晚上不用再害怕 自己的房子了,因为家里有灯,这真的很棒。05:50So Susan does something that many customers of thesecompanies that I talked about do,and she forces us toinnovate.苏珊做了一些事情,和我提到的公司的顾客 做的事情不谋而合,她迫使我们去创新。05:56She challenges companies,saying,Ive got the radio and thelights.她给公司提出挑战,说:“我已经有收音机和灯了。06:03www.XiYuS锡育软件You know what?Id like a TV.但我还想要一台电视机。06:07Id like to entertain,educate me and my kids.我想要丰富娱乐生活,想通过电视自学,并教育孩子。06:08And then I would like to have some hair clippers for my kids,you know,to cut my kids hair,and Id love to have a fridge.其次,为了我的孩子考虑,我还想要几个理发器,我得替孩子理发,此外我还很想有一个冰箱。”06:14And shes coined something that the energy world is reallyhungry to do.她创造了一些 能源行业迫切希望实现的事情。06:20innovate:vi.创新;改革;革新/vt.改变;创立;创始;引人 clippers:n.钳子;轧刀;修剪工具(clipper的复数)fridge:n.电冰箱coined:v.杜撰(新词等)(coin的过去分词);铸造(硬币)The idea that shes coined is the energy ladder.她提出的是“能源阶梯”的想法。06:26It starts,again,with a lightbulb.Right?这次还是从一个灯泡开始。06:29And the lightbulb is an idea that we can get our kids to dohomework,and very cheap,about five dollars,and we canget it distributed.灯泡只是一个初步想法,它让我们的孩子能够在家做功课,而且很便宜,大概只要五美元,我们可以分发灯泡。06:32But then lets go up from there.但我们要从更高的层次看。06:41This is the kit that Susan has:four lightbulbs,radio,maybe alittle flashlight,a little solar panel on the roof.这是苏珊所拥有的:四个灯泡,一个收音机,也许还有一个小手电筒,还有屋顶上的一个小太阳能电池板。06:43And then lets go up again.我们再上一层。06:51We can get maybe at about 500 dollars,the previous kit wasmaybe$150,again,paid for over time,two years to pay it alloff,you can get the TV,so the lightbulbs and the TV.这一套大概还需要500美元,而之前拥有的全部家电配件 总价值约150美元,这次也是分期付款,两年内全部付清,你就可以拿到电视,那么这时就拥有了灯泡和电视。06:53And you start to ask yourself,So where is this headed?于是你开始问自己,“这一理念将指引我们走向何方？”07:08Is this headed here,where we can have distributed systemswith the right infrastructure to provide power for ourhospitals and our schools?这是否会 让我们可以拥有分布式系统,配备有合适的基础设施,为我们的医院和学校来提供电力？07:11And really how far can this go?这真的能帮助我们实现这些吗？07:21And this is the mindset shift that I think is really exciting.不过这种心态上的转变 真的很鼓舞人心。07:23ladder:n.阶梯;途径;梯状物/vi.成名;发迹/vt.在上装设梯子How far can we go?我们到底能走多远？07:27Could it get up to here?这种理念真的能奏效吗？07:29You know,this is the conceptual design for one of theworlds biggest factories,designed to be fully solar-要知道,这一概念设计 是来自于世界上最大的工厂之一,旨在实现完全依靠 太阳能供电的离网型照明。07:30worlds biggest factories,designed to be fully solar-powered and fully off grid.明。07:30Maybe we can get that.也许我们是可以做到的。07:39So theres a generation of these companies that are out theredoing this work and creating thousands of jobs,creating,selling,tens of thousands of these solar systems,确实有这样一群公司 在坚持朝着这个方向努力,创造了数以千计的工作机会,制造并销售了数以万计的 这种太阳能发电系统,07:42so bringing tens of thousands of families into light,andtackling that big$1 billion problem that I talked about atthe beginning,and really innovating.让无数家庭用上电灯,并正在解决我之前提过的 那个10亿美元的大问题。它们才是真的在创新。07:56And what theyre doing is,theyre not only energycompanies,theyre also credit finance companies,so theyrebringing people into an economy.此外,它们的业务范围很广,不仅仅是能源公司,还是信贷财务公司,带人们参与进经济社会中。08:05Theyre retail companies,so theyre taking products out topeople in the connecting markets.它们还是零售公司,把产品销售给中介市场的客户。08:14get up to:赶上,追上;达到 conceptual:adj.概念上的 factories:n.工厂,车厂(factory复数形式)solar-powered:adj.太阳能的 tackling:n.装备,用具;扭住/v.处理;抓住(tackle的现在分词)at the beginning:首先;从一开始;起初;从头开始innovating:n.创新/v.革新(innovate的现在分词);创立 retail:vt.零售;转述/vi.零售/n.零售/adv.以零售方式/adj.零售的And theyre appliance companies,so theyre developingextraordinary products that are very efficient and very cheap.它们还是家电公司,正在研发卓越的、高效而又廉价的产品。08:20So an extraordinary thing is happening out there thats worthrecognizing.因此,伟大的变化正在那里发生,它值得世界的认可。08:28And where does it take us?然而,它又将带领我们走向何方？08:34From a governmental perspective,from a social perspective,it takes us out to two really big goals.从政府和社会的角度来看,它引领我们去实现 两个非常宏大的目标。08:36We aspire towards energy access for everybody,and weaspire towards a fully-functioning low-carbon economy.一是我们渴望为每个人提供能源,其次,我们希望建设 一个功能完善的低碳经济。08:43And were getting to the point where were seeing the fully-functioning low-carbon economy is not just about gettingpeople onto the grid,its about getting people ontoelectricity and doing it in a way thats really dignified.我们此刻正在朝着目标努力,一个功能完善的低碳经济 不仅是让人们能够接入电网,更要让人们用上电,并以一种有尊严的方式实现。08:53So I want us all to picture it for a moment,really picture whatthis could mean:请各位想象一下,认真思考这可能意味着什么:09:13New energy ecosystem an energy system thats not justabout subsistence power,getting the family off thekerosene,but its actually the full suite of appliances andtools and productivity that weve all gotten used to,soactually energy at a scale that can drive industrialdevelopment.新能源生态系统 这个能源系统不仅能提升生存能力,帮助一些家庭 从煤油时代进入电灯时代,事实上它能提供 一整套的家电和工具,并带来与之相适应的生产力,尽管这些我们都已经习以为常了。而实际上能达到这等规模的 能源系统就足以推动工业发展了。09:18recognizing:v.认识;承认;察觉(recognize的ing形式)/n.认识;承认/adj.认识的;识别的 governmental:adj.政府的;政治的;统治上的 aspire:vi.渴望;立志;追求 low-carbon:adj.低碳(的),含碳低的;低碳 dignified:adj.庄严的;有尊严的;高贵的/v.使高贵(dignify的过去式)subsistence:n.生活;生存;存在And its the ability to have powerful tools.同时,这也是一种 拥有高效工具的能力,09:41Its the ability to be productive in the households,as afarmer,or as a carpenter or as a tailor and get yourbusinesses to work and bring you into the economy.是一种在农户中高效生产的 能力,无论你是农民、木匠、还是裁缝,并让企业家的公司能够运转,引领人们进入低碳经济。09:47And I was working again a couple of days ago with a farmerjust outside of Nairobi,small field,and he has an irrigationpump thats run off solar,and he was bragging about howmuch of a difference it made to his productivity.几天前,我还与一位农民打过交道,就在内罗比（肯尼亚首都）郊外的小田地里,他有一个灌溉泵,是太阳能驱动的,他向我夸耀这个机器09:57When we were listening to him,we were asking ourselves,atwhat point will it be that actually,you will be charging anelectric scooter off your rooftop and taking your crops tomarket with mobility that youve charged yourself,usingyour own power?当我们在听他的故事时,我们问自己,什么时候 你会用屋顶上的太阳能电池板 为你的电动代步车充电,并且把你的农作物运输到市场上时,你用的是自己生产的电能？10:12And thats an extraordinary thing thats happening,and ifyou listen to Susan and Francis,you get to this point w