PeterVanManen_2013X[彼得范梅南][1级方程式赛车_如何能帮助…婴儿].pdf
www.XiYuS锡育软件Motor racing is a funny old business.赛车是一项充满乐趣的经典运动。00:12We make a new car every year,and then we spend the rest ofthe season trying to understand what it is weve built tomake it better,to make it faster.每年我们都造出新的赛车,然后在这一年剩下的时间中 分析和理解新赛车的特性,改进它,让它更快。00:14And then the next year,we start again.然后第二年,重新开始这个过程。00:25Now,the car you see in front of you is quite complicated.你现在看到的这辆车是非常复杂的。00:28The chassis is made up of about 11,000 components,theengine another 6,000,the electronics about eight and a halfthousand.光底盘就用了超过一万个零件,引擎的零件数量超过六千个,电控部分有大概八千五百个组件。00:32So theres about 25,000 things there that can go wrong.总零件数超过2.5万个,每个零件保证不能出错。00:41So motor racing is very much about attention to detail.所以赛车运动需要非常注重细节。00:46The other thing about Formula 1 in particular is were alwayschanging the car.F1方程式赛车的另一个特别的地方,是我们一直在更新和改装赛车。00:51Were always trying to make it faster.我们持续性的改进它使它更快。00:56So every two weeks,we will be making about 5,000 newcomponents to fit to the car.所以平均每两周时间,我们就会替换掉车内大约5000个零件。00:58Five to 10 percent of the race car will be different every twoweeks of the year.赛车中大约5-10%的零部件 在一年中每两周就会被更换一次。01:05chassis:n.底盘,底架 made up of:由组成,由构成 electronics:n.电子学;电子工业 in particular:尤其,特别So how do we do that?那么我们是怎么做到的？01:11Well,we start our life with the racing car.我们的改进过程从比赛开始。01:14We have a lot of sensors on the car to measure things.我们用大量的传感器来记录车辆运行状态。01:17On the race car in front of you here there are about 120sensors when it goes into a race.你们面前的这辆车在比赛时,会携带大约120个不同的传感器。01:21Its measuring all sorts of things around the car.它们记录赛车运行时的所有数据。01:26That data is logged.Were logging about 500 differentparameters within the data systems,about 13,000 healthparameters and events to say when things are not workingthe way they should do,and were sending that data back tothe garage using telemetry at a rate of two to four megabitsper second.数据被记录并保存。我们的数据系统包含约500个内部参数,1.3万个车况信息及事件记录器,当系统的某些地方工作出现问题时,我们将这些数据回传到车库进行分析 无线传送速率能达到2M到4M每秒01:30So during a two-hour race,each car will be sending 750million numbers.所以两个小时的比赛过程后,每辆车发送的数字 数据量超过7.5亿。01:52Thats twice as many numbers as words that each of usspeaks in a lifetime.我们每个人一辈子说过的单词总数加起来,还不到其中的一半。01:57Its a huge amount of data.这是很多的数据。02:02racing car:赛车 sensors:n.自传感器,感应器;感测器(sensor的复数)logged:adj.笨拙的;锯成圆木的;停滞的;进水的/v.伐树;把树木锯成段木;记入航海日志;把输入计算机(log的过去分词)logging:n.记录;伐木工作/v.把锯成段木;砍伐树木(log的ing形式)telemetry:n.自遥测技术;遥感勘测;自动测量记录传导 megabits:n.计兆位(megabit的复数形式)But its not enough just to have data and measure it.但是仅仅测量和记录这些数字还不够。02:05You need to be able to do something with it.你需要利用这些数据做出点什么。02:07So weve spent a lot of time and effort in turning the datainto stories to be able to tell,whats the state of the engine,how are the tires degrading,whats the situation with fuelconsumption?所以我们花了大量的时间和精力,赋予这些数据以意义,使我们能够知道,引擎的状态如何,轮胎磨损的程度如何,油耗的情势如何？02:09So all of this is taking data and turning it into knowledgethat we can act upon.我们所做的这一切,就是将数据转换成能够知道我们工作的知识。02:23Okay,so lets have a look at a little bit of data.现在,让我们看看一眼原始数据。02:29Lets pick a bit of data from another three-month-oldpatient.再看看从一个三个月大的 病人身上采集到的一些数据。02:32TED演讲者：Peter van Mane|彼得范梅南演讲标题：How can Formula 1 racing help.babies?|1级方程式赛车，如何能帮助婴儿?内容概要：During a Formula 1 race,a car sends hundreds of millions of data points to its garagefor real-time analysis and feedback.So why not use this detailed and rigorous data systemelsewhere,like.at children.s hospitals?Peter van Manen tells us more.(Filmed atTEDxNijmegen.)Peter van Manen is the Managing Director of McLaren Electronics,which provides data systemsto major motorsports series.This is a child,and what youre seeing here is real data,andon the far right-hand side,where everything starts getting alittle bit catastrophic,that is the patient going into cardiacarrest.这是个孩子,而你现在看到的都是真实数据,注意最右边的曲线,情况开始变得有点糟糕,患者开始出现心跳骤停的症状。02:37It was deemed to be an unpredictable event.这被认为是一件无法预先判定的事件。02:49degrading:adj.可耻的;丧失体面的;不名誉的/v.退化(degrade的ing形式);减少;降低的身份 have a look at:看一看,看一眼right-hand:adj.得力的;右手的,用右手的 catastrophic:adj.灾难的;悲惨的;灾难性的,毁灭性的 cardiac:n.强心剂;强胃剂/adj.心脏的;心脏病的;贲门的 deemed:v.认为(deem的过去式)unpredictable:adj.不可预知的;不定的;出乎意料的/n.不可预言的事This was a heart attack that no one could see coming.没有人预见到这次心脏病发作。02:53But when we look at the information there,we can see thatthings are starting to become a little fuzzy about fiveminutes or so before the cardiac arrest.但是当我们仔细看这些曲线,我们能够看到在心跳骤停的5分钟左右,记录仪的数据出现了一些征兆。02:56We can see small changes in things like the heart ratemoving.我们能够看到心率等数据中 出现的一些细小的改变。03:05These were all undetected by normal thresholds whichwould be applied to data.这些改变的幅度很小,常规的检测值 无法甄别出这些改变。03:10So the question is,why couldnt we see it?那么问题变成了,为什么我们注意不到这个？03:15Was this a predictable event?这个事件可以用来预测么？03:18Can we look more at the patterns in the data to be able to dothings better?是不是我们对于数据中模式的分析越详尽 就可以预测的越准？03:20So this is a child,about the same age as the racing car onstage,three months old.这个孩子 跟台上的这台赛车一样大,三个月了。03:27Its a patient with a heart problem.这个孩子患上了心脏病。03:34Now,when you look at some of the data on the screen above,things like heart rate,pulse,oxygen,respiration rates,theyreall unusual for a normal child,but theyre quite normal forthe child there,现在,看着屏幕上的这些数据,有心率、脉搏、血氧量、呼吸频率,它们跟正常的小孩子相比都存在差异,但是对于病房的小朋友们来说很正常,03:37fuzzy:adj.模糊的;失真的;有绒毛的 undetected:adj.未被发现的;未检测到的 thresholds:n.阈值;建门槛;临界值值(threshold的复数)predictable:adj.可预言的 respiration:n.呼吸;呼吸作用and so one of the challenges you have in health care is,howcan I look at the patient in front of me,have something whichis specific for her,and be able to detect when things start tochange,when things start to deteriorate?所以医疗诊断的挑战之一,就是我如何通过观察眼前的病人,通过从她身上获取的特有的一些数据,能够在情况开始恶化之前,检测到苗头？03:51Because like a racing car,any patient,when things start to gobad,you have a short time to make a difference.这点上病人与赛车是相似的,当事情恶化时,你只有很短的时间,来避免事态扩大。04:06So what we did is we took a data system which we run everytwo weeks of the year in Formula 1 and we installed it on thehospital computers at Birmingham Childrens Hospital.我们的方法是使用一个数据系统,F1赛车每两周运行一次的数据系统,我们把该系统安装在伯明翰儿童医院的 内部电脑上。04:14We streamed data from the bedside instruments in theirpediatric intensive care so that we could both look at thedata in real time and,more importantly,to store the data sothat we could start to learn from it.我们将医院儿童重症监护室中病床周围的设备 接入到我们的系统中,这样我们就可以实时的查看到这些数据,并且更重要的,我们将这些数据长期保存,使我们能够从中寻找规律。04:25And then,we applied an application on top which wouldallow us to tease out the patterns in the data in real time sowe could see what was happening,so we could determinewhen things started to change.然后,我们在系统上使用了一款软件,能够帮助我们实时的将数据中包含的模式 梳理出来,让我们看到事情发展的过程,让我们能够确定情势何时开始发生了变化。04:39deteriorate:vi.恶化,变坏/vt.恶化 go bad:变酸;开始腐坏 make a difference:有影响,有关系 streamed:n.溪流;流动;潮流;光线/vi.流;涌进;飘扬/vt.流出;涌出;使飘动 bedside:n.床边,床旁/adj.床旁的,枕边的 pediatric:adj.小儿科的 tease:vt.取笑;戏弄;梳理;欺负;强求;使起毛/n.戏弄;爱纠缠的小孩;挑逗者;卖弄风骚的女孩/vi.取笑Now,in motor racing,were all a little bit ambitious,audacious,a little bit arrogant sometimes,so we decided wewould also look at the children as they were beingtransported to intensive care.在赛车比赛中,我们都怀有野心,无所畏惧,有时候还会有些鲁莽,所以我们觉得我们应该在孩子被送往医院的路上,就开始对他们进行数据采集和分析。04:54Why should we wait until they arrived in the hospital beforewe started to look?为什么要等到他们到了医院才开始 数据采集和分析呢？05:06And so we installed a real-time link between the ambulanceand the hospital,just using normal 3G telephony to sendthat data so that the ambulance became an extra bed inintensive care.于是我们在救护车和医院之间 搭建了一个实时数据传送的链接,采用普通的3G通信网络传送数据,现在急救车也变成了移动版的 重症监护室。05:11And then we started looking at the data.然后我们开始分析这些数据。05:26So the wiggly lines at the top,all the colors,this is the normal上面的这些弯弯绕绕、五颜六色的线条,跟你在病床监视器上看到过的数据是一样的 心率、脉So the wiggly lines at the top,all the colors,this is the normalsort of data you would see on a monitor-heart rate,pulse,oxygen within the blood,and respiration.床监视器上看到过的数据是一样的 心率、脉搏、血氧含量,以及呼吸速率。05:30The lines on the bottom,the blue and the red,these are theinteresting ones.现在,底下的两条红色和蓝色的曲线,是我们关心的。05:42The red line is showing an automated version of the earlywarning score that Birmingham Childrens Hospital werealready running.红线表示的是伯明翰儿童医院 正在使用的早期预警阈值 这是（通过数据分析）自动生成的。05:46audacious:adj.无畏的;鲁莽的 arrogant:adj.自大的，傲慢的 transported:v.植运输;搬运(transport的过去式)real-time:adj.实时的;接到指示立即执行的 telephony:n.电话(学);电话制造 wiggly:adj.扭动的;左右摇摆的;起波的;蠕动的automated:adj.自动化的；机械化的/v.自动化(automate的过去分词)；自动操作www.XiYuS锡育软件Theyd been running that since 2008,and already havestopped cardiac arrests and distress within the hospital.从2008年就开始运行了,已经在医院内成功的阻止了多次 心搏骤停引发的悲剧。05:53The blue line is an indication of when patterns start tochange,and immediately,before we even started putting inclinical interpretation,we can see that the data is speaking tous.蓝色的曲线向我们指示出 病人的情势何时开始发生变化,让我们甚至不需要进行临床诊断 就能立即而直观的,看到数据自己向我们传达的信息。06:01Its telling us that something is going wrong.数据告诉我们出问题了。06:13The plot with the red and the green blobs,this is plottingdifferent components of the data against each other.这些红色和绿色的小球体,表示的是来自不同样本群体的 同一种类型的数据。06:16The green is us learning what is normal for that child.我们通过绿色的小球表示的数据来学习“正常状态”06:25We call it the cloud of normality.我们称之为“常态云”。06:29And when things start to change,when conditions start todeteriorate,we move into the red line.然后当情势开始变化,当病情开始恶化,数据就跳到了红色的范围。06:32Theres no rocket science here.这并不复杂。06:39It is displaying data that exists already in a different way,toamplify it,to provide cues to the doctors,to the nurses,sothey can see whats happening.我们只是将已经存在的数据用另一种方式呈现,放大数据的差异,供医护人员诊断,让他们更容易看出情势的变化。06:41clinical:adj.临床的；诊所的 blobs:n.斑点(blob的复数)/v.溅污(blob的三单形式)plotting:n.测绘;标图/v.测绘图;密谋(plot的ing形式)normality:n.常态;化学当量浓度;化学规定浓度 rocket science:复杂的事;航天器学 amplify:vt.放大，扩大；增强；详述/vi.详述 cues:n.开端,线索;提示,关键;球杆;诱因(cue的复数形式)In the same way that a good racing driver relies on cues todecide when to apply the brakes,when to turn into a corner,we need to help our physicians and our nurses to see whenthings are starting to go wrong.这跟一个优秀的赛车手,依赖于各种线索来决定何时刹车,何时转向是一个道理,我们需要帮助我们的医生和护士 在病情恶化的开始提前发现和处理。06:51So we have a very ambitious program.我们有一个很雄伟的计划。07:06We think that the race is on to do something differently.我们在这场比赛中需要打破常规。07:09We are thinking big.Its the right thing to do.我们目标远大,我们在做正确的事。07:14We have an approach which,if its successful,theres noreason why it should stay within a hospital.如果我们的方法是可行的,那么没有任何理由,将这种方法的应用范围局限在医院内。07:17It can go beyond the walls.它可以有更广的使用范围。07:22With wireless connectivity these days,there is no reason whypatients,doctors and nurses always have to be in the sameplace at the same time.无线网络连接在今天已经无处不在,没有理由还要求病人、医生和护士 一定要在同一个时间,出现在同一个地点。07:24And meanwhile,well take our little three-month-old baby,keep taking it to the track,keeping it safe,and making itfaster and better.与此同时,我们将继续改进我们的赛车,确保其车况良好,确保其安全,并且使之更快、更好。07:34relies:信任 turn into:v.变成;进入 physicians:n.内科内科医生(physician的复数)go beyond:v.超出;胜过 wireless:adj.无线的;无线电的/n.无线电/vt.用无线电报与联系;用无线电报发送/vi.打无线电报;打无线电话 connectivity:n.数连通性Thank you very much.谢谢大家。07:44(Applause)谢谢大家。07:45*Warning:本文是由生成导出，请用于个人学习，不要用于商业用途。否则，导致的一切法律后果，均由您个人承担，锡育软件概不负责。*
