ESCAP：2022年亚洲及太平洋经济社会概览报告（EN）.pdf

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1、BuildingForwardFairerEconomic and Social Surveyof Asia and the Pacific 2022Economic Policies for an Inclusive Recovery and Development更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o ），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a oThe Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) is the most inclusive intergovernmen

2、tal platform in the Asia-Pacific region. The Commission promotes cooperation among its 53 member States and 9 associate members in pursuit of solutions to sustainable development challenges. ESCAP is one of the five regional commissions of the United Nations. The ESCAP secretariat supports inclusive

3、, resilient and sustainable development in the region by generating action-oriented knowledge, and by providing technical assistance and capacity-building services in support of national development objectives, regional agreements and the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

4、.The shaded areas of the map indicate ESCAP members and associate members.*The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, ter

5、ritory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o ），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a oBUILDING FORWARD FAIREREconomic Policies for an Inclusive Recovery and DevelopmentECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEYOF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

6、2022更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o ），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a oBUILDING FORWARD FAIREREconomic Policies for an Inclusive Recovery and DevelopmentECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEYOF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2022United Nations publicationLanguage: ENGLISHSales no.: E.22.II.F.5Copyright United Nations 2022All

7、rights reservedPrinted in BangkokISBN: 9789211208375eISBN: 9789210013611ISSN: 0252-5704eISSN: 2412-0979 ST/ESCAP/2998Photo CreditsCover: Sasin Tipchai/ShutterstockChapter 1: Chetan Soni/ESCAPChapter 2: Kanawa_Studio/IstockChapter 3: Sasiistock/IstockChapter 4: Goc/IstockChapter 5: Janno Nivergall/Pi

8、xabayChapter 6: ProStock-Studio /Adobe StockMention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations.This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided

9、that the source is acknowledged. The ESCAP Publications Office would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source.No use may be made of this publication for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission. Applications for such perm

10、ission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of reproduction, should be addressed to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations, New York.更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o ），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a oFOREWORDAntnio GuterresSecretary-General of the United NationsAfter two years of

11、the COVID-19 pandemic, poverty is increasing, inequalities are widening, and daily life is becoming a growing struggle across every society especially for those already on the social and economic margins.In the Asia-Pacific region, more than 820 million workers in the informal economy and over 70 mi

12、llion children in low-income households have been hit hard by the pandemics sweeping economic impacts. In 2021 alone, an additional 85 million people were pushed into extreme poverty.Economic recovery, along with the core promise of the Sustainable Development Goals to “leave no one behind,” are fas

13、t slipping beyond reach.As the countries of Asia and the Pacific look to recovery prospects, they face fiscal constraints and difficult budgetary decisions.The Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2022 makes a strong case that now is the time for more investment and spending, not less.

14、Spurring sustainable recovery and development while countering rising inequalities across the region demands increased and inclusive spending to support human development. This includes strengthening health care, education, food systems and universal social protection. It also includes bold investme

15、nts in job creation, the green transition, gender equality and opportunities for youth.To help Governments make these urgent and necessary investments, the Survey offers a detailed blueprint to reorient fiscal and monetary policymaking, regulatory frameworks, and economic transformation processes ac

16、ross the region to ensure that all people are supported equally.This includes ensuring more targeted and efficient social spending, improved revenue and tax collection, and putting inclusive finance and equitable development at the centre of decisions by central banks. Countries must plan wisely, sp

17、end smartly and tax fairly.More broadly, the world can bolster these efforts by reforming the global financial system, so developing countries can readily access the debt relief, emergency financing, credit and foreign investment they need to support their people at this critical moment. The finding

18、s and policy recommendations contained in this Survey remind us that the “Fairer Future” it envisions is not only necessary, but possible. At this pivotal period in history, the United Nations looks forward to working with partners across Asia and the Pacific and beyond to shape a sustainable, inclu

19、sive and resilient recovery that belongs to, and is shared by, all. Economic Policies for an Inclusive Recovery and DevelopmentIVFOREWORD更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o ），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a oPREFACEA more fundamental challenge to sustained economic recovery and inclusive development is the K

20、-shaped recovery among different sectors and the loss of jobs and incomes that pushed an estimated 85 million people in the region into extreme poverty since the pandemic. For developing countries in Asia and the Pacific, COVID-19 has also been a pandemic of inequality. Prolonged economic disruption

21、s and school closures mean long-term scarring of productive skills and learning and, consequently, earning potential, all of which exacerbate inequalities.“Leaving no one behind” is a core ESCAP strategic priority for 2022. This years edition of the flagship Economic and Social Survey of Asia and th

22、e Pacific revisits macroeconomic and structural policies and lays out a road map for inclusive post-pandemic recovery and development a “Building Forward Fairer” policy agenda. As developing countries in the region move ahead with learning to live with COVID-19, balancing the protection of public he

23、alth and livelihoods, it is time to lay the foundations for a fairer future of equal opportunities and inclusive outcomes.The Survey recommends the continuation of targeted public expenditures amid likely fiscal consolidations that tend to increase inequality and calls for efficiency in fiscal spend

24、ing. The Survey shows that investments in health care, education and social protection significantly reduce inequality; however, there is much room for improvement in beneficiary targeting and spending efficiency. To ensure fiscal and debt sustainability, the Survey also highlights the importance of

25、 enhancing domestic fiscal revenues in a fair manner.In taking a new perspective, the Survey highlights the role of central banking policies and argues that central banks can and should tilt their traditional monetary policy and official reserve management towards promoting inclusive development. Th

26、e Survey also explores how a central bank digital currency can improve financial access as well as the role of innovative financial instruments in promoting inclusiveness. The third pillar of the Building Forward Fairer policy agenda is Governments proactively guiding, shaping and managing the struc

27、tural transformation and technological innovation process for more inclusive outcomes. Economic structure determines inequality dynamics, and the Survey outlines the path to “growing with equity”. This requires learning structural transformation lessons from the past; promoting labour-intensive tech

28、nologies and inclusive access to high-quality education and public services; reskilling; and strengthening social protection floors.Following the global call for a major structural change set out in the Secretary-Generals report Our Common Agenda, the efforts of the Asia-Pacific region towards build

29、ing an inclusive future must also be based on a new social contract. The unprecedented human suffering caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has also created a generational opportunity to build a more equal and sustainable world. This is an opportunity that we cannot waste. Armida Salsiah AlisjahbanaUnder

30、-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of ESCAPThe developing economies in Asia and the Pacific rebounded robustly in 2021 after a year of contraction triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. The recovery remains nascent and uneven; economic growth is projected to be moderate in

31、 2022 amid continuing uncertainty about the pandemic and the likely unwinding of fiscal and monetary support in view of macroeconomic stability concerns.VEconomic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2022Building Forward Fairer更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o ），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a oEXECUT

32、IVESUMMARYSustaining a nascent recoveryAfter the pandemic-induced economic contraction in 2020, economic recovery in the developing Asia-Pacific counties in 2021 was driven by robust demand for exports from the region. The growth momentum was dented towards the latter half of the year as countries r

33、enewed lockdowns and restrictions in the wake of new COVID-19 variants, leading to supply disruptions. Border openings were further delayed, holding back employment recovery, particularly in tourism-dependent economies. Overall, economic growth in developing countries in Asia and the Pacific, estima

34、ted at 7.1 per cent in 2021, is projected to moderate to 4.5 per cent in 2022 and 5 per cent in 2023. Inflation has risen across the region, driven by rising food and fuel prices, affecting the poor disproportionately. Importantly, the unfolding of a K-shaped recovery among different sectors represe

35、nts a major challenge for inclusive recovery and development, and is likely to further impede progress towards implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In addition, policymakers need to be aware of impending risks, including the possible emergence of new variants of the COVID-1

36、9 coronavirus and the ongoing geopolitical conflict. Continued economic disruptions can have adverse impacts on productive capacities and long-term productivity through shorter working hours and lack of employment opportunities, which would erode worker skills. Within the region, women have been dis

37、proportionately affected by the pandemic as a large proportion of them were employed in sectors most severely affected by the pandemic and a large proportion of them are engaged in informal employment. Womens labour force participation has also been constrained by care responsibilities during closur

38、e of schools and care services. Prolonged school closures have long-term consequences for learning and, consequently, income-earning potential. Weakened economic prospects and balance sheets of businesses are likely to reduce incentives for productive investment and in research and development, resu

39、lting in medium- to long-term reductions in productivity.Economic Policies for an Inclusive Recovery and DevelopmentVIEXECUTIVE SUMMARY更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告（s o s o y a n b a o ），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a oMoreover, the diminishing fiscal space in many countries casts doubts over sustained fiscal support, wh

40、ile rising inflationary pressures and the prospect of higher interest rates may restrain monetary policy support, with implications for debt servicing, capital flows and currency depreciation. The structural shifts in China as it pursues its “Common Prosperity” agenda have triggered regulatory chang

41、es weighing on investor sentiment. Of particular importance are regulations to contain the highly leveraged property development sector, the slowdown in which will affect key trading partners and the demand for raw materials in the region. Chinas zero-COVID strategy will also have impacts on countri

42、es in the region that are highly dependent on tourist arrivals from China.In looking ahead, the region should seek a balanced approach to coexist with the pandemic one which is aimed at protecting public health but also enabling livelihoods to continue in order to ensure the economic and social well

43、-being of people. For a sustained recovery, labour market policies, along with continuity in fiscal and monetary support, are needed. However, in the midst of constrained fiscal space, fiscal spending will have to be more targeted and efficient. With rising inflationary pressures, monetary policy ca

44、n remain accommodative only in countries where inflation is expected to remain within targets, while timely increases in interest rates can help stem potential capital outflows and strengthen external position. Policies that are aimed at enhancing productive capacities and productivity, along with p

45、rioritizing spending on health care, education and social protection, can help to reduce inequalities and minimize scarring, thus contributing to sustained and inclusive economic recovery and development.VIIEconomic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2022Building Forward Fairer更多细分领域报告请关注搜搜报告

46、（s o s o y a n b a o ），行研君胃：s o s o b a o g a oSpending smart and taxing fairly amid fiscal constraintsThe COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent economic crisis pose a fiscal dilemma for countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The need to spend remains elevated, while the means to spend are reduced. Co

47、untries with sufficient fiscal space can continue to spend for an inclusive recovery. However, those that do not have the means will have to work on both improving the efficiency of spending and the collection of more revenues.To ensure recovery at all income levels, instead of a K-shaped scenario,

48、and lay firmer foundations for a more equal and resilient future, fiscal policies need to maintain spending in three major areas: health care, education and social protection. Moreover, Governments should “spend smart” by reducing or eliminating inefficiencies in expenditures and ensuring that basic

49、 health care services become increasingly universal, that all children receive high-quality education, especially girls and those in rural areas, and that social protection measures shield all throughout their life, in particular marginalized and vulnerable groups. These expenditures will not only m

50、inimize the negative long-term effects of the pandemic but will also help generate long-lasting returns. After all, expenditure on human capital is the best investment for our future.However, “smart spending” will not be enough to address all the fiscal needs for “building forward fairer” towards ac