经济学人100篇精选文章(共301页).doc

《经济学人100篇精选文章(共301页).doc》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《经济学人100篇精选文章(共301页).doc（301页珍藏版）》请在淘文阁 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、精选优质文档-倾情为你奉上2010.04.08 Protection racket 保护的喧闹Eating lots of fruit and vegetables may not help stave off cancer, after all终究， 吃大量的水果和蔬菜并不能避免癌症Apr 8th 2010 | From The Economist print edition FOR snivelling children and recalcitrant carnivores, requests that they should eat five portions of fruit and

2、 vegetables every day have mostly fallen on deaf ears. But those who did comply with official advice from charities, governments and even the mighty World Health Organisation (WHO), could remind themselves, rather smugly, that the extra greens they forced down at lunchtime would greatly reduce their

3、 chances of getting cancer. Until now, that is. Because a group of researchers led by Paolo Boffetta, of the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York, have conducted a new study into the link between cancer and the consumption of fruit and vegetables, and found it to be far weaker than anyone had

4、thought.对于哭哭啼啼的小孩和顽固的肉食主义者，每天吃五种不同的蔬菜和水果的要求他们基本上会当做耳旁风。 但是那些遵循慈善团体、 政府、 甚至是权威的WHO的官方建议的人会沾沾自喜的提醒自己午饭时候硬塞进去的绿色食品会极大的减少患癌症的几率。 到现在为止， 确实如此。 因为由纽约西奈山医学院的Paolo Boffetta带领的一组研究人员进行了一个癌症与蔬菜和水果的消费之间关系的研究， 并且发现这个关系要比想象得弱得多。In the past, veggie-associated reductions of cancer-risk rates as high as 50% had bee

5、n reported. But it appears that some of these early investigations may have been biased by the use of “case-control” studies. Such studies try to identify the factors contributing to cancer by comparing people who have the disease with those who do not, but are otherwise similar. The problem is that

6、 they can easily be biased if researchers do not adequately establish that the two groups being compared are, indeed, otherwise similar. Walter Willet, at the Harvard School of Public Health, says it appears that earlier investigations were more likely to use health-conscious people as their control

7、s. These types of people are, unsurprisingly, more likely to agree to be interviewed about their health than slobby couch potatoes.过去曾有过蔬菜能够减少高达50%的癌症发病率的报道。 但是现在看来先前许多的研究都用了“病例对照”而产生了偏见。 这一类研究通过对比其它条件相似的癌症患者和健康人试图明确是什么因素导致了癌症。 问题是如果研究人员没有适当地建立两个组， 也就是其它因素都相似， 研究很容易产生偏见。 哈佛公共卫生学院的Walter Willet说， 以前的

8、研究似乎都喜欢用有健康意识的人来作为对照组。 毫不意外， 这类人比那些懒在沙发里面吃薯片的人更喜欢坐健康的研究。 Dr Boffetta and his colleagues have therefore carried out a different kind of study, known as prospective cohort study, which they report in theJournal of the National Cancer Institute. Their work follows a group of individuals over time and l

9、ooks at how different factors contribute to different outcomesin this case, the development of cancer. Analysis of dietary data from almost 500,000 people in Europe found only a weak association between high fruit and vegetable intake and reduced overall cancer risk.因此Boffetta博士和同事进行了另一种类型的研究， 被称作是前

10、瞻性群体研究， 发表在美国癌症学会杂志上面。 他们在一段时间内跟踪一组个体并观察不同的因素导致了什么样的不同结果在这个研究中， 就是癌症的发生。 欧洲将近500,000人中的饮食数据分析发现大量的蔬菜和水果的摄入与所有的癌症患病率之间的关系非常小。 Green with envy充满嫉妒According to Susan Jebb, of the British Medical Research Councils Collaborative Centre for Human Nutrition Research in Cambridge, the new study suggests tha

11、t if Europeans increased their consumption of fruit and vegetables by 150g a day (about two servings, or 40% of the WHOs recommended daily allowance), it would result in a decrease of just 2.6% in the rate of cancers in men and 2.3% in women. Even those who eat virtually no fruit and vegetables, the

12、 paper suggests, are only 9% more likely to develop cancer than those who stick to the WHO recommendations.来自英国医学研究会的剑桥人类营养研究合作中心的Susan Jebb说， 新的研究表明如果欧洲人每天增加150g的蔬菜和水果的摄入量（大约每日两次， 或者是WHO推荐摄入量的40%）, 这将只会降低男性2.6%、 女性2.3%的肿瘤发生率。 研究显示即使是那些几乎没有蔬菜和水果摄入的人， 他们的癌症发生率比坚持按照WHO推荐摄入量的人仅仅高出9%。On the face of it,

13、that is quite a blow to the smug salad eaters, and the health lobbys spin-doctors were out in force in the wake of the papers publication, to play down its conclusions. Before racing to the food-recycling bin with the contents of an ageing fruit bowl, they pointed out, there are a number of other fa

14、ctors that nutritionists would urge that you consider.从表面看来， 这无疑是对沾沾自喜的沙拉坚守者的巨大打击， 而且这篇文章发表以后倡导健康生活的医生们失去了自己以前说服病人的有力证据， 他们闭口不谈这篇文章的重要性。 营养专家指出， 别急着把你一直伴随你的水果盘里面的水果扔到垃圾桶里， 还有很多其它的因素需要你考虑。 One is that this kind of study has attempted to adjust for every possible factor that might contribute to the re

15、lationship, and isolate only the contribution that fruit and vegetables make. This means that if people who turn away from fruit and vegetables end up eating more processed meats or foods high in fat instead, they probably will increase their cancer risk, even though the direct cause is not the cons

16、umption of less fruit and veg.其中一个因素是这一类型的研究试图调节好在这个关系中的每一个因子， 于是孤立了蔬菜和水果在其中所起到的作用。 这意味着如果把吃蔬菜和水果转而变成吃更多的精细肉类和其他高脂食物， 会增加癌症的发病率， 即便直接的原因并不是蔬菜和水果的摄入过少。 More importantly, there is still good evidence that fruit and vegetables protect against heart disease and strokes by reducing blood pressure. A sepa

17、rate investigation of the people involved in Dr Boffettas study suggests that those who eat five servings a day of fruit and vegetables have a 30% lower incidence of heart disease and strokes than those who eat less than one and a half servings. It is also possible that some specific foods, such as

18、tomatoes, broccoli and other cruciferous vegetables, do offer protective effects against particular kinds of cancer.更重要的是， 依然有很充分的证据说明蔬菜和水果的降压作用可以预防心脏病和中风。Boffetta博士一项独立的研究表明每天吃五份水果和蔬菜的人比每天只吃一份半蔬菜和水果的人心脏病和中风的发病率要低30%。 而且某些特定的食物， 比如番茄、 西兰花和萝卜等蔬菜， 对特定的癌症还是有预防作用的。 As a consequence, the best advice is p

19、robably still to eat your five a day. But for snivelling children and recalcitrant carnivores the fleeting thought that you might not have to was nice while it lasted.因而， 最好的建议是依然坚持每天吃五份蔬菜和水果。 但是对于哭哭啼啼的小孩和顽固的肉食主义者， 改变他们的想法让它一瞬即逝好了。2009.10.29 The unrepentant chocolatier 不思悔改的巧克力制造商Oct 29th 2009 | LAU

20、SANNE AND VEVEYFrom The Economist print editionThe worlds biggest food company is betting on an emerging class of health and nutrition products to spur its growth. But risks abound世界头号食品公司将宝压在健康营养产品，借助这些产品的发展以促进公司壮大。然而，危机四伏IT IS a curious blend of kitchen and laboratory. From one room wafts the bitt

21、ersweet smell of chocolate being gently heated and stirred by chocolatiers. Around the corner it is all science. A double row of cubicles contains human guinea pigs who sniff and taste from little tubs, scoring each on criteria such as sweetness or bitterness to produce complex flavour charts. Down

22、the corridor, women in comfortable chairs talk about how chocolate makes them feel. Cameras and microphones record their most minute gestures for the scrutiny of psychologists and anthropologists这种厨房与实验室的结合着实新奇。制造商将巧克力微微加热，使其散发出甜中带苦的口味。事情虽小确是科学。两排小隔间的实验对象嗅闻、品尝小盒中的食物，并根据甜、苦等标准打分，制造商据此创造复杂的口味系列。穿过走廊，很

23、多女士坐在舒服的座椅上，描述吃巧克力的感觉。她们每一个细微的动作都被摄像机和麦克风记录下来，稍后心理学家和人类学家将对这些数据进行仔细分析。This is the science behind Nestls 110-year-old chocolate factory next door, which each morning exhales the aroma of roasting almonds and cocoa beans over Broc, a chocolate-box-perfect Swiss village where even the weeds in an overg

24、rown lot seem orderly. It is in these laboratories, where a pinch of art is mixed with SFr25m ($23.6m) of technology, that new chocolate recipes are devised. At another Nestl research centre in Lausanne, meanwhile, researchers have been working out how chocolate affects metabolism and the behaviour

25、of gut microbesin other words, analysing chocolate as a pharmaceutical product, rather than a treat这就是雀巢110年巧克力工厂的科学之道。每天早上布罗克村都飘散出烘烤杏仁和可可豆的芳香气息。布罗克是瑞士的巧克力之乡。在这，即使是空地上蔓延生长的杂草似乎也井然有序。就是在这些实验室里诞生了新的巧克力配方。（也是在这里有少数艺术与身价2500万瑞士法郎约合2360万英镑的技术相结合）。与此同时，在雀巢的另一家研发中心洛桑市，研究者们一致在研究巧克力如何影响新陈代谢和肠道微生物行为。换言之，把巧克力当

26、做药物来分析，而不是食品。Investment in this kind of research may seem indulgent, particularly in a recession. But it exemplifies Nestls strategy for future growth. Although the company is best known for chocolate, ice-cream and sugary snacks, Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, the firms chairman, and Paul Bulcke, its chie

27、f executive, hope to transform the food company into the worlds leading health, nutrition and “wellness” firm. It is tempting to dismiss this as a mere marketing stuntan effort to make people feel better about eating things they really shouldnt. Yet there is a sound commercial logic behind Nestls sh

28、ift towards health and nutrition.在这种研究上投入资金似乎是败家之举，尤其是在经济萧条时期。然而，这是雀巢为促进未来成长的战略缩影。虽然雀巢是以巧克力、冰激凌、甜食著称，但是董事长Peter Brabeck-Letmathe和执行官Paul Bulcke希望把公司从食品企业转为世界顶级保健、营养和“健康”公司。人们很容易将此举理解为营销的愚蠢行为（努力让消费者觉得吃不应该吃的食品没什么大不了的）。然而，在雀巢转型成为保健、营养型公司的背后有一套行之有效的商业逻辑Sales of foodstuffs that have been intentionally mo

29、dified and improved by manufacturers to provide claimed health benefitsknown as “functional foods”are, in many cases, growing far more quickly than foods sales as a whole. Sales of functional foods in western Europe grew by 10.2% a year between 2004 and 2007, whereas sales of packaged food grew by 6

30、.3% a year over that period (see chart 1), according to Euromonitor, a market-research firm. Some categories are growing even faster. In America, sales of functional foods that promote “gut health”, for example, grew by an average of 15.8% a year between 2002 and 2007, according to a recent Pricewat

31、erhouseCoopers report, compared with overall food-sales growth of 2.9% a year, according to Datamonitor (see chart 2). The PricewaterhouseCoopers report predicts that the global market for functional foods will grow in value from $78 billion in 2007 to $128 billion in 2013. “功能性食品”即经过制造商刻意修改和改进、宣传有益

32、健康的食物。这类食品的销售额在大部分情况下增速远远快于其他食品的整体销售增速。市场调研公司欧睿的调查显示，功能性食品在西欧的销售额在2004至2007年期间保持着每年10.2%的增速，而包装类食品在同期的增速为每年6.3%（见图一）。有些种类的增速甚至更快。例如，普华永道最近的一份报告显示，促进“肠道健康”的功能性食品在美销售额在2002年至2007年的年平均增速为15.8%，而欧睿的调查显示同期美国食品的总体销售额增速只有2.9%。普华永道在报告中还预测功能性食品的全球市场将从2007年的78亿美元扩大到2013年的1280亿美元。Looking further ahead, Nestl s

33、ees great potential in the idea of “personalised” nutrition. Just as drugs companies have long talked of devising drugs that take account of genetic variations between people, the firm wants to do the same with food. That is why it is investing in the nascent fields of metabolomics and proteomics wi

34、th the aim of providing foods, diets, devices and even services for particular subgroups of the population. It forecasts that by 2017, global sales of nutrition for “specific need states” could reach $100 billion. Existing examples include Musashi whey-protein supplements and PowerBar snacks for ath

35、letes; Sondalis and Nutren Glytrol liquid diets for diabetics; and Optifast powders and shakes for dieters.雀巢看到在未来“个性化”营养的潜力巨大，医药公司一直在谈论的、根据个体基因的不同改造药物的做法，而雀巢打算在食物上采也取同样做法。这就是该公司在代谢学和蛋白质组学的新生领域投资的原因，其目的在于通过这项研究，雀巢能够为特定人群提供特定的食物、节食食品、器具甚至是特定的服务。该公司预计到2017年，能够达到“特定需求状态”的营养食品的销量将达到1000亿美元。目前这类食品包括Musas

36、hi乳清蛋白补充剂、运动员专用PowerBar点心、糖尿病人专用的Sondalis 和 Nutren Glytrol流食以及为节食人群设计的Optifast牌奶粉和奶昔。 Switching to a new diet转做新型食品This shift in emphasis towards health and nutrition will, Nestl hopes, transform it from a purveyor of low-margin, commoditised foodstuffs into a provider of high-margin products and se

37、rvices. (It already owns Jenny Craig, a chain of American weight-loss centres, which it is now expanding globally.) The firm needs new sources of growth. Sales of bottled water, which are about 10% of its business, are falling in rich countries because of the recession. They may yet bounce back, but

38、 analysts fret that bottled water, which is now firmly in the sights of environmental groups, may go the way of the fur trade. 雀巢希望通过这次重点向保健和营养的方向转型能够把公司从一个售卖利低廉食品的公司转型为高利润产品和服务的供应商。（雀巢已经将美国减肥中心Jenny Craig收归旗下，该公司目前正在全球扩张。）雀巢需要新的增长点。瓶装水的销量目前占整个销售业务的，但是由于经济衰退这一数字在发达国家正在下降。销售额可能会回升，但是分析人士担心由于瓶装水现在被环保组

39、织紧紧盯上了，最后可能会重蹈裘皮贸易的覆辙。Nestl also seems to be losing market share in other products, though company officials dispute the assertion. Pablo Zuanic, an analyst at JPMorgan, reckons that in the second quarter of 2009, 44% of Nestls product lines lost market share in America, and none of its products gai

40、ned market share there, according to surveys of retail-data by ACNielsen, a market-research firm. Scepticism about Nestls prospects can also been seen in its share price: its shares trade at a lower multiple of earnings than those of its main European competitors. One reason is that investors are co

41、ncerned that it may invest some or all of the SFr30 billion it is likely to receive next year from selling its share in Alcon, an eye-care firm, in businesses that are less profitable than the ones it already has.似乎雀巢其他产品的市场份额页在下降，虽然公司高管对此予以否认。摩根大通的分析师Pablo Zuanic表示，根据市场调研公司ACNielsen,的零售数据显示年二季度的雀巢产

42、品线在美国的市场占有率下降，所有产品的市场占有量无一上升。人们对雀巢未来的担忧在股价上便可见一斑：股票盈利低于其主要欧洲竞争对手数倍。原因之一是投资者担心明年雀巢可能将抛售Alcon公司（眼部护理公司）的股份收益（亿瑞士法郎）部分或全部投资到比目前利润更低的业务上。Investors are also worried that Nestl has become too large and unwieldy. The firm has 30 product lines that each generate more than SFr1 billion in annual sales, from

43、Nescaf coffee and Nesquik milk to Purina pet food and Pure Life, a bottled water that is sometimes made from stuff that comes out of taps, rather than out of the ground. Consumers have been trading down to cheaper, unbranded foods in recent years, a trend that accelerated in the recession, potential

44、ly undermining the value of owning big brands.投资者还担心雀巢已经变得过于巨大而笨重不堪。该公司目前有条生产线，每条生产线每年的销售额都在亿瑞士法郎之上。其中包括雀巢咖啡、雀巢巧伴伴、Purina宠物食品和纯净生命（有时用自来水而非地下水灌装的瓶装水）。几年来，消费者开始减少消费，购买价格更加低廉，无品牌的食品。这一趋势由于经济衰退而愈演愈烈，导致大品牌的价值悄然缩水。So the company has seized upon evidence that incorporating healthier ingredients into its p

45、roducts could help it get its sales moving in rich countries again, and win over hearts and minds in emerging markets, too. These ingredients include live bacteria in yogurt, extra calcium of a form that is more easily absorbed by childrens bodies, and sterols (a kind of plant fat) that reduce blood

46、 cholesterol.所以雀巢指望在产品中添加保健成分能够帮助该公司在发达国家的销量能够再次上升，同时赢得新兴市场消费者的青睐。这些保健成分包括酸奶益生菌、儿童更易吸收的钙以及降低血液胆固醇的固醇（一种植物脂肪）A study by Harvard Business School found that between 2004 and 2007, sales of Nestls products containing such “functional” ingredients increased by 23.7% a year, compared with growth of 6.2% a

47、 year for its ordinary foods. Sales of Nestls functional foods grew by 20% in 2008. And on October 22nd the company announced that in the difficult year to September 2009, in which the underlying growth rate (stripping out price changes and currency movements) across its food and beverage product li

48、nes was 0.7%, functional foods still managed to eke out growth of 4%.哈佛商学院的研究显示2004年到2007年期间雀巢公司旗下产品含有“功能性”成分的产品销量的年增长率为23.7%，而普通食品的增长率只有6.2%。2008年功能食品的增长率为20%。10月22日雀巢公司宣布从经济危机开始到2009年9月该公司所有食品和饮料生产线的实际增长率（除去价格变动和资本流通因素）为0.7%，而功能食品仍然实现了4%的增长率。Other companies are benefiting from the same trend. Results released on September 23rd by Danone, a French diary and yogurt company, showed that its bestselling yogurts are those with l