巨大的经济竞争：中国对美国（英）-哈佛大学肯尼迪学院-2022.3-56正式版.pdf

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1、PA P E RM A R C H 2 02 2AVOI D I N G GREAT POW ER WAR PR OJEC TThe Great Economic Rivalry: China vs the U.S.Graham AllisonNathalie KiersznowskiCharlotte FitzekAvoiding Great Power War Project BelferCenter for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138w

2、ww.belfercenter.orgStatements and views expressed in this report are solely those of the author(s) and do not imply endorsement by Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School,ortheBelferCenter for Science and International Affairs.Copyright 2022, President and Fellows of Harvard CollegePA P E RM A R

3、C H 2 02 2AVOI D I N G GREAT POW ER WAR PR OJEC TThe Great Economic Rivalry: China vs the U.S.Graham AllisonNathalie KiersznowskiCharlotte FitzekAcknowledgmentsWe would like to thank the following external reviewers, all of whose comments substantially improved the report. None of them are responsib

4、le for the final product, and any errors or misjudgments are the responsibility of the authors. Larry Summers (Harvard University) Martin Wolf (Financial Times) Esther Tetruashvily (Georgetown Law School) Miles Neumann (Insight Partners)iiiBelfer Center for Science and International Affairs | Harvar

5、d Kennedy SchoolTable of ContentsExecutive Summary . 1I. A Rising China .4II. Trendlines in the 21st Century .8 Gross Domestic Product .8 Market Exchange Rate .9 Purchasing Power Parity .11 Trade .14 Global Trade .14 Global Manufacturing .24 Business & Investment .25 Global Corporations .25 Foreign

6、Direct Investment .27 Research & Development .28 Finance . 30 Dollar Dominance .30 Equity Markets and Banking .32III. What about the Future? .36ivThe Great Economic Rivalry: China vs the U.S.Photo by Rinson Chory1Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs | Harvard Kennedy SchoolExecutive S

7、ummary For the first time since the U.S. overtook Great Britain in the 1870s to become the leading economy in the world, the U.S. now faces an economic rival that is as large, and by some measures, larger than it is.1 This chapter examines Chinas record of closing the gap with the U.S. in most econo

8、mic races, and even overtaking it in some. Our analysis focuses on four pillars of economic power: GDP, trade, business and investment, and finance. GDP creates the substructure of power in relations among nations. While the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nations with

9、 larger GDPs have historically exercised greater power in international relations. As Adam Smith taught us, trade enriches both seller and buyer, creating a larger pie for everyone. But it also creates webs of asymmetrical interdependence that advantage some over others. Investments by businesses in

10、 manufacturing reflect their judgments about where they can produce the best product at the lowest price. While no one denies that these choices have consequences for the relative manufacturing strength of one nation over another, that is not the business of 1 GDP (MER) figures in the chart are in c

11、onstant 2015 USD. GDP and urban population data are through December 31, 2020. Life expectancy is through December 31, 2019.2The Great Economic Rivalry: China vs the U.S.businesses. Financial firms are rewarded for earning the highest returns at the lowest risk for their clients without regard to th

12、e impact this has on the growth of some nations economies at the expense of others.Having reviewed the evidence about the relative performance of China and the U.S. over the past generation, we report eight bottom lines up front: Chinas sustained “miracle economic growth” over the past four decades

13、at an average rate four times that of the U.S. has redefined the global economic order. When measured by the traditional yardstick market exchange rate since 2000, Chinas GDP has soared from $1.2 trillion to $17.7 trillion. On the current trajectory, it will overtake the U.S. within a decade. By the

14、 yardstick both the CIA and the IMF judge to be the best metric for comparing national economies purchasing power parity China has already surpassed the U.S. to become the worlds largest economy.2 China has displaced the U.S. to become the manufacturing workshop of the world. China has overtaken the

15、 U.S. to become the No. 1 trading partner of most nations in the world. China has established itself as the most essential link in the worlds critical global supply chains. China has replaced the U.S. as the primary engine of global economic growth. Since the 2008 financial crisis, one-third of all

16、growth in the worlds GDP has occurred in just one country: China. In 2020, China supplanted the U.S. as the home to the largest number of the most valuable global companies on Fortunes Global 500 for the first time. It has also rivaled the U.S. as the leading country in attracting foreign investment

17、 and is neck and neck with the U.S. in gross R&D investments.2 We recognize that this claim provokes an emotional response from some readers who insist that it simply cannot be true. For doubters, we suggest they pause for a two-minute fact check by visiting the CIA World Factbook. https:/www.cia.go

18、v/the-world-factbook/field/real-gdp-purchasing-power-parity/country-comparison/3Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs | Harvard Kennedy School On the other hand, the dollar remains the worlds dominant reserve currency, accounting for 60% of foreign exchange reserves. While Beijings asp

19、irations and progress deserve careful attention, America retains its lead in several key arenas: the dollar remains the preferred currency for cross-border transactions, U.S. equity markets remain the worlds largest, and the U.S. retains a significant lead in venture capital investments. Moreover, a

20、s the society that attracts the most talented inventors and entrepreneurs in the world and gives them the freedom and opportunity to realize their dreams, the U.S. remains unrivaled. 4The Great Economic Rivalry: China vs the U.S.I. A Rising ChinaThe dramatic shift in the global balance of power crea

21、ted by the meteoric rise of China has no precedent in world history. In Singapores founder Lee Kuan Yews succinct summary: “It is not possible to pretend that this is just another big player. This is the biggest player in the history of the world.”3Two decades ago, members of Congress were debating

22、whether a poor, “developing country”as China was classified at the timeshould be allowed to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). Chinas GDP was less than one-tenth of what it is today, and more than 460 million of its citizens still lived below the abject poverty line of $2 a day.4 Since then, w

23、hen measured by the traditional GDP yardstick market exchange rate Chinas economy has ascended from 10% of Americas in 2000 to 78% in 2021.5 Indeed, when measured by the yardstick that both the IMF and CIA judge to be the best metric for comparing national economies purchasing power parity Chinas ec

24、onomy is already 15% larger than Americas.6 3 Graham Allison, Robert D. Blackwill, and Ali Wyne, Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Masters Insights on China, the United States, and the World (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2013), pp 42.4 C. Textor, “Number of rural residents living below the poverty line in China

25、from 2000 to 2018 (in millions)*,” Statista, 1/9/2020, https:/ “GDP (Current $US) -China, United States” World Bank Group, https:/data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US-CN “Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2021 (Advance Estimate),” Bureau of Economic Affairs, January

26、 27, 2022. https:/www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2021-advance-estimate.6 World Economic Outlook Database,” International Monetary Fund, April 2021, https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/April; “Real GDP Purchasing Power Parity,” CIA World Fact

27、book, January 26, 2022. https:/www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/real-gdp-purchasing-power-parity/country-comparison.5Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs | Harvard Kennedy SchoolThe impact of this rise is being felt in every dimension of every relationship. Not only has it transfo

28、rmed relations between the U.S. and China; it has also redefined relations between each of them and everyone else. Consider trade: when China entered the WTO in 2001, the number one trading partner for most nations was the United States. Today, the worlds predominant trading partner is China. In 201

29、0, China became the number one manufacturing nation. Today, China accounts for one-third of global manufacturing value added, while the U.S. share has dropped to under one-fifth.7Perhaps the most surprising fact for Americans who have not kept track of recent developments is that China has displaced

30、 the U.S. to become the primary engine of global growth. Since the Great Recession of 2008, approximately one-third of all growth in the worlds GDP has occurred in just one country: China.8 Thus when nations around the world assess their prospective growth in the year ahead, the first economy they t

31、hink about is China. In sum, in the past two decades, China has joined the U.S. and the EU as the third backbone of the global economy.What this means for global geopolitics is profound. At the end of World War II and for the decade that followed, the U.S. accounted for roughly half of global GDP. F

32、rom this position of dominance, the U.S. took the lead in creating the IMF, the World Bank, the Bretton Woods monetary system, the GATT trading system, and the rest of what became the global economic order. When establishing alliances like NATO, CENTO, and SEATO, the U.S. could cover the costs witho

33、ut thinking about burden-sharing. But by the end of the Cold War in 1991, Americas share of global GDP had shrunk to one-fifth. Today it stands at one-sixth.9 As the graphic on the following page illustrates, Chinas rise has created a new world economic order.7 “Country Profile,” UN Statistics Divis

34、ion, December 2019, Accessed Feb 1, 2022, https:/unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/CountryProfile. 8 Tao Wang, Ning Zhang, William Deng, Jennifer Zhong, Aaron Luo, Katharine Jiang, “China Economic Perspectives: The Case for China,” UBS, August 31, 2020.9 “World Economic Outlook Database,” International Mon

35、etary Fund, April 2021, https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/April.; Graham Allison, “The U.S.-China Strategic Competition: Clues from History,” Belfer Center, February 2020.https:/www.belfercenter.org/publication/us-china-strategic-competition-clues-history6The Great Economic Ri

36、valry: China vs the U.S. Source: World Bank10Lee Kuan Yew foresaw a 21st century in which the balance of economic power would be as important as the balance of military power.11 Leaders mandates to govern increasingly depend on their ability to deliver improvements in their citizens economic well-be

37、ing. (Thus the recurring refrain from U.S. allies and friends who say: do not try to make us choose between our relationship with the U.S., which is essential for our security, and our relationship with China, which is essential for our prosperity.) It is not surprising, therefore, that China has ch

38、osen commerce as its preferred instrument for advancing its interests in the world. As Robert Blackwill and Jennifer Harris War by Other Means argues persuasively, China is “the worlds leading practitioner of geoeconomics.”12 It has demonstrated mastery in orchestrating all instruments of economic p

39、ower to coerce target states, even when the international system is on their side. Of course, as Australias defiance in banning Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei from its 5G 10 “GDP, PPP (current international),” World Bank. Accessed February 1, 2022. https:/data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP

40、.MKTP.PP.CD.11 Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydidess Trap?, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017, 20.12 Robert Blackwill and Jennifer Harris, War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2016), 11.7Belfer Center for Science

41、 and International Affairs | Harvard Kennedy Schoolnetwork shows, Chinese coercion can be counterproductive.13 Nonetheless, countries dependent on Chinas supply chains for key imports and Chinese markets to sell their exports are increasingly wary of the risk that when they say no to China, it can d

42、elay the former and block the latter. 13 Australia has faced severe Chinese sanctions for demanding an independent investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic and for banning Huawei from its 5G network. Despite harsh sanctions, Australia has not reversed either decision. Kirsty Needha

43、m, “Australia cancels Belt and Road deals; China warns of further damage to ties,” Reuters, April 21, 2021, https:/ Great Economic Rivalry: China vs the U.S.II. Trendlines in the 21st CenturyGross Domestic Product Source: The Financial Times, 6/25/2021The graphic created by the Financial Times above

44、 offers a historical perspective on how Chinas economic growth has shifted the global economic center of gravity. Two millennia ago, Asia was home to the worlds largest economies. With the industrial revolution, the economic center of gravity moved to Europe, and then towards the U.S. Today, it is s

45、hifting back to a China-led Asiacreating a powerful gravitational pull on all other economies. 9Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs | Harvard Kennedy SchoolMarket Exchange RateTraditionally, economists have used a metric called MER (market exchange rate) to calculate GDP. In this cal

46、culation, the U.S. economy is taken as the baselinereflecting Americas dominant role in the global economy when this method was developed in the years after World War II. For other nations, this method adds up all goods and services produced by their economy in their own currency and converts that t

47、otal into U.S. dollars at the current “market exchange rate,” thus deriving their GDP. Using this metric, in what the IMF describes as “the biggest and longest-run economic boom in history,” Chinas economy has grown ten-fold during the past two decades, from $1.2 trillion in 2000 to $17.7 trillion i

48、n 2021.14 During this period, China has posted real growth rates at an average of 8.7% a year 10.3% in the first decade, and 7.2% in the second.15 As a result, every four years since the financial crisis of 2008, China has added roughly an economy the size of India to its GDP. By comparison, U.S. GD

49、P grew from $10.3 trillion in 2000 to $24.0 trillion by 2021, with real GDP growth averaging just 2% annually during these first two decades.16 As the U.S. ascended after the Civil War to rival and eventually surpass Great Britain, Americas economic growth rate averaged 4%. Between 1860 and 1914, th

50、e U.S. grew from an economy half that of Britains at mid-century, to equality in the 1870s, to twice Britains size by 1914.17 For the past four decades, Chinas economic growth has averaged nearly 10% a year. According to the Rule of 72, to calculate how long it takes for an economy to double in size