亚太地区投资策略-亚洲经济：准备迎接冲击-2022.第二季度-107正式版.pdf

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1、Disclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Asset / SubcategoryQ2 2022Economics | AsiaAsian EconomicsPlay video withFrederic NeumannQ2 2022By: Frederic Neumann and Qu

2、 HongbinAsian EconomicsBracing for impactSurging commodity prices will deliver a powerful inflation kick to Asian economiesGrowth will also take a hit as rising energy costs cut into demand and exports slowBut defensive policy action will parry the blow, providing balance in the Year of the TigerEco

3、nomicsAsia 1 Economics Asia Q2 2022 Brace for impact. As the Year of the Tiger is getting under way, Asia is facing economic challenges on multiple fronts. The surge in global commodity prices is set to push up inflation, squeezing the wallets of consumers and hurting the bottom line of companies. E

4、xports that have fuelled growth through much of the pandemic may pull back as well, given climbing transportation costs. At the same time, rising US interest rates will only stiffen the headwinds, all the while COVID-19 continues to rage in many parts of the region. Still, a more defensive posture s

5、hould prevent economies from tumbling over. In mainland China, determined stimulus will deliver a powerful kick and steady demand. Elsewhere, scope for a little fiscal cushion exists as well, and Asias central banks will press the brakes far more gently than the Fed. Softer growth and higher inflati

6、on will therefore prove nearly inescapable for Asia, too, in light of the tragedy and turmoil thats gripping Eastern Europe. The conflict leaves no one untouched. In times like these Conflict rages. The world is reminded of its darkest impulses. In Asia, too, geographically removed by considerable d

7、istance, the trauma is palpable. The consequences are myriad, and will be felt for a long time to come, for such rupture cannot heal swiftly nor quietly. For the world economy, higher inflation and slower growth beckon. As Janet Henry, HSBCs Global Chief Economist, and James Pomeroy note in a recent

8、 report, the conflict amounts to a broad-based supply shock, compounding challenges that had been building for a while, from stretched supply chains to multi-decade high inflation (see Global Economics Quarterly: Conflict, 22 March 2022). A hard landing isnt inevitable and the extreme uncertainties

9、around how political events will unfold render such firm judgements misplaced. But the risks are tilted, to a looming degree, in that direction. Asia will feel the effects, too, promptly and starkly. Inflation, at last, is set to rear its head across the region. It had remained relatively tranquil o

10、ver the past year certainly compared to other parts of the world. But soaring energy costs will drive up CPIs, and there is a growing risk that higher global food prices will spill over into local economies as well, including in those markets that are net exporters. Higher energy costs certainly, bu

11、t to some extent higher food prices, too, will ultimately weigh on growth. The former is bound to slow global demand and, hence, curb exports from the region. It will also squeeze the pocketbooks of local consumers and hurt profits of domestic businesses. Higher food prices, meanwhile, could further

12、 dent household spending, especially in cities, though things could look a little better for farmers, even as these confront higher production costs. Executive Summary Economics Asia Q2 2022 2 Policy will provide the needed ballast to keep the ship from tilting over. Central bankers face an especial

13、ly tricky job: most are set to tighten to cool prices and steady exchange rates. But few are expected to act as forcefully as the Fed, being on balance more concerned about the eventual drag on growth than the imminent spike in inflation. Fiscal easing, at the margin, should help as well. Mainland C

14、hina is bound to act most forcefully on the latter. For all the economys challenges, from a wobbly property market to rising local infections, policy easing should thus help drive up growth over the course of this year, an important anchor for a region battered by stiff winds and high waves. Hong Ko

15、ng is in a more challenging position, needing to vanquish the virus before a full recovery can ensue. Taiwan, by contrast, continues to ride the electronics wave. Japans recovery should prove steady enough, but less vigorous than earlier anticipated, leaving its central bank among the few in the wor

16、ld with its foot firmly on the gas. Korea should see household spending snap back in the coming months as the virus fades, though weakening global trade will be a headwind. Australia, meanwhile, will enjoy a lift from rising commodity prices, though not enough to prevent its economy from slowing int

17、o next year. In New Zealand, the sharp rise in interest rates, as well as the steeper cost of oil, will pull down growth over time as well. India continues to impress with its resilience, having bounced back vigorously from its pandemic lows. Higher energy prices, however, present a drag, and growth

18、 is losing a little momentum. For Sri Lanka, the rise in global oil prices, and broader uncertainty, has come at an especially tricky time, though growth should steady into 2023. Indonesia will see a lift from commodity exports, supporting growth and reducing the countrys reliance on capital inflows

19、. Malaysia, too, benefits from higher energy prices, but manufactured exports could still cool. Thailand could, at last, see tourists return to its beaches, even if a full recovery will take time to unfold. In the Philippines, the impact of the virus has started to fade, but higher global food and e

20、nergy costs are a major drag. Singapore will once again display its resilience, though inflation will require more tightening. Vietnam wont lose a beat into 2023. HSBC real GDP growth forecasts (%, red denotes above consensus, grey denotes below consensus) Source: CEIC, HSBC; NB: Old forecasts refer

21、 to those published in Asia Economics Quarterly: Ready for the next round, 17 December 2021; *Refers to fiscal year; nominal aggregates are nominal GDP weighted. 202020212022f (old)2022f (new)consensus2023f (old)2023f (new)consensusAustralia-2.24.73.53.54.13.02.83.1New Zealand-2.15.63.43.23.02.21.82

22、.9Bangladesh*6.97.06.97.15.96.36.86.4Mainland China2.28.15.65.65.05.85.85.2Hong Kong-6.56.43.02.01.63.13.33.5India*-6.68.66.86.87.66.05.76.2Indonesia-2.13.75.15.15.25.25.15.3Japan-4.51.62.21.92.30.60.91.8Korea-0.94.02.52.53.02.02.02.6Malaysia-5.63.15.65.55.94.64.35.1Philippines-9.65.66.25.76.96.15.3

23、6.2Singapore-4.17.63.83.84.13.13.13.3Sri Lanka-3.63.52.52.03.22.82.33.8Taiwan3.46.43.23.83.43.02.63.0Thailand-6.21.64.43.83.63.13.14.6Vietnam2.92.66.56.27.46.66.57.1Asia ex JN0.27.25.45.35.15.35.35.1Asia ex JN & CH-3.25.85.04.95.34.54.34.8Asia ex JN CH & IN-1.84.54.24.14.33.83.74.2ASEAN 6-3.83.85.25

24、.05.34.84.65.2 3 Economics Asia Q2 2022 Executive Summary 1 Key forecasts 4 Monetary policy assumptions 5 Stern and bow 6 The inflation challenge 16 Mainland China: More easing on all fronts 22 Indicators 29 GDP 30 Inflation 31 Industrial production & unemployment 32 Consumption & saving 33 Investme

25、nt 34 Trade 35 Economy profiles 37 Australia 38 Bangladesh 42 Mainland China 46 Hong Kong 50 India 54 Indonesia 58 Japan 62 South Korea 66 Malaysia 70 New Zealand 74 Philippines 78 Singapore 82 Sri Lanka 86 Taiwan 90 Thailand 94 Vietnam 98 Disclosure appendix 102 Disclaimer 104 Contents Economics As

26、ia Q2 2022 4 Key forecasts (% y-o-y) Asia Average AU CH BA HK IN ID JN KR MA NZ PH SI SL TA TH VN Real GDP% 2020 -0.6 -2.2 2.2 6.9 -6.5 -6.6 -2.1 -4.5 -0.9 -5.6 -2.1 -9.6 -4.1 -3.6 3.4 -6.2 2.9 2021 6.2 4.7 8.1 7.0 6.4 8.6 3.7 1.6 4.0 3.1 5.6 5.6 7.6 3.5 6.4 1.6 2.6 2022f 4.7 3.5 5.6 7.1 2.0 6.8 5.1

27、 1.9 2.5 5.5 3.2 5.7 3.8 2.0 3.8 3.8 6.2 2023f 4.5 2.8 5.8 6.8 3.3 5.7 5.1 0.9 2.0 4.3 1.8 5.3 3.1 2.3 2.6 3.1 6.5 Real Private consumption 2020 -3.2 -5.8 -1.8 8.0 -10.5 -6.0 -2.6 -5.2 -5.0 -4.3 -1.2 -7.9 -12.9 -3.0 -2.5 -1.0 0.6 2021 7.3 4.8 11.0 7.2 5.6 8.5 2.0 1.3 3.6 1.9 6.6 4.2 4.5 3.6 -0.4 0.3

28、 2.1 2022f 5.6 4.8 6.5 6.8 1.8 6.7 4.6 3.5 3.0 6.8 2.3 7.5 5.5 2.5 5.0 6.7 5.9 2023f 5.1 3.3 6.6 6.9 4.3 5.6 5.0 1.7 1.7 3.1 1.8 5.4 5.1 2.7 1.7 4.2 7.3 Real Fixed investment* 2020 -2.1 -3.8 0.6 8.1 -11.3 -10.4 -5.0 -4.6 2.6 -14.5 -7.4 -27.5 -14.2 -9.1 5.9 -4.8 4.1 2021 5.3 7.4 6.0 6.7 10.1 12.9 3.8

29、 -1.5 2.6 -0.9 9.5 9.6 19.6 5.3 14.7 3.4 4.0 2022f 4.1 1.4 5.0 7.0 2.4 7.2 6.9 -1.2 1.9 5.8 7.1 5.3 10.7 2.0 4.6 6.2 7.4 2023f 4.6 2.1 5.3 6.8 5.4 6.4 7.7 0.2 3.2 5.4 2.4 12.9 6.5 2.5 3.7 6.0 6.7 Current account balance* (% of GDP) 2020 2.6 2.6 1.9 -0.9 7.0 0.9 -0.4 2.9 4.6 4.2 -1.1 3.1 16.8 -1.3 14

30、.2 4.2 5.5 2021 2.2 3.5 1.8 -1.4 10.4 -1.8 0.3 2.8 4.9 3.5 -4.8 -0.9 18.1 -4.4 15.0 -2.2 -0.4 2022f 1.2 3.1 1.0 -1.6 7.6 -3.0 -1.0 2.0 1.6 3.6 -7.7 -1.6 12.7 -3.1 13.4 -2.0 -0.2 2023f 0.9 2.6 0.5 -0.6 7.6 -2.9 -1.6 1.8 2.0 3.1 -5.5 -1.9 13.4 -2.0 11.9 0.4 1.2 CPI (period average) 2020 2.6 0.8 2.5 5.

31、7 0.3 6.2 2.0 0.0 0.5 -1.1 1.7 2.4 -0.2 4.6 -0.2 -0.8 3.2 2021 2.0 2.9 0.9 5.5 1.6 5.5 1.6 -0.2 2.5 2.5 3.9 3.9 2.3 5.9 2.0 1.2 1.8 2022f 3.1 4.2 2.1 6.1 2.5 5.6 3.7 1.5 3.3 3.2 6.5 4.5 4.1 14.7 2.2 3.6 3.7 2023f 2.8 2.7 2.3 5.6 2.1 5.0 4.0 0.5 1.4 2.5 3.0 3.8 2.3 7.3 1.2 2.3 3.5 Policy rate (%, yea

32、r-end) 2020 n/a 0.10 3.85 4.75 0.50 4.00 3.75 -0.10 0.50 1.75 0.25 2.00 0.00 5.50 1.125 0.50 4.00 2021 n/a 0.10 3.80 4.75 0.50 4.00 3.50 -0.10 1.00 1.75 0.75 2.00 0.50 6.00 1.125 0.50 4.00 2022f n/a 0.50 3.60 4.75 2.25 4.50 4.50 -0.10 1.50 2.50 2.50 3.00 1.50 9.00 1.625 0.75 4.50 2023f n/a 1.25 3.60

33、 4.75 3.00 5.00 5.25 -0.10 1.75 3.00 2.50 3.50 2.00 9.00 1.625 1.25 5.25 Exchange rate (vs. USD, year-end) 2020 n/a 0.75 6.52 84.8 7.75 73.1 14105 103 1088 4.01 0.72 48.0 1.32 187 28.5 30.0 23098 2021 n/a 0.72 6.38 85.8 7.80 74.3 14269 115 1186 4.18 0.68 50.8 1.35 201 27.7 33.2 22826 2022f n/a 0.75

34、6.45 89.0 7.80 76.0 14200 115 1190 4.05 0.68 52.0 1.32 255 28.5 31.8 22800 2023f n/a 0.75 6.45 89.0 7.80 76.0 14200 115 1190 4.05 0.68 52.0 1.32 255 28.5 31.8 22800 Note: *Hong Kong: Current account refers to visible and invisible trade balance only. On a fiscal year basis for India and Bangladesh.

35、On a fiscal year basis for India. Singapore: Slope of SGD NEER band. Australia and New Zealand are not included in the Asia aggregate. Aggregates use chain nominal GDP (USD) weights, except for inflation, which uses nominal GDP (PPP) weights for the respective years. 2021, 2022 and 2023 using 2020 w

36、eights. FX rates for year-end 2023 are assumptions and not forecasts. n/a Not Applicable. CH refers to mainland China. Source: CEIC, HSBC forecasts GDP (% y-o-y) CPI (% y-o-y) Source: CEIC, HSBC forecasts (nominal GDP USD weights) Source: CEIC, HSBC forecasts (nominal GDP PPP weights) -30369-3036904

37、 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22f23fAsia averageAsia ex Mainland China, India & Japan averageFcast% y-o-y% y-o-y123456781234567804 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22f23f% y-o-y% y-o-yAsia ex Mainland China, India & Japan averageAsia averageFcast 5 Economics A

38、sia Q2 2022 Monetary policy assumptions Monetary policy Period end (%) 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22f 2Q22f 3Q22f 4Q22f 1Q23f 2Q23f 3Q23f 4Q23f Australia RBA Cash Target rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.25 Bangladesh Repo rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75

39、 4.75 4.75 Mainland China 1-year Loan Prime rate 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.80 3.70 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.60 Hong Kong Base rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.25 1.75 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.00 India Repo rate 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 Indonesia 7-day Reverse Repo rate 3

40、.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 4.00 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.25 Japan Policy-balance Deposit rate -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 Korea 7-day Repo rate 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 Malaysia Overnight rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75

41、 2.00 2.50 2.50 2.75 2.75 3.00 New Zealand RBNZ Cash rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.75 1.00 1.75 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 Philippines Reverse Repo rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50 Singapore Slope of SGD NEER band 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00

42、 Sri Lanka Reverse Repo rate 5.50 5.50 6.00 6.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 Taiwan Discount rate 1.125 1.125 1.125 1.125 1.375 1.625 1.625 1.625 1.625 1.625 1.625 1.625 Thailand 1-day Repo rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.25 Vietnam Refinancing rate 4.00 4.0

43、0 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.50 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.25 Source: CEIC, HSBC forecasts Headline inflation Target (2022)* 4Q21 1Q22f 2Q22f 3Q22f 4Q22f 1Q23f 2Q23f 3Q23f Australia 2.0 to 3.0 3.5 4.3 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.7 Bangladesh 5.3 5.9 5.9 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.6 Mainland China Around 3.0 1.8 1.0 2.2

44、2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.2 Hong Kong 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 3.5 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 India 4.0 5.0 6.1 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.9 Indonesia 2.0 to 4.0 1.8 2.3 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.2 3.8 Japan 2.0 0.5 0.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 Korea 2.0 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.3 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.3 Malaysia 2.1 3.2 2.5 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.4 New Zealan

45、d 1.0 to 3.0 5.9 7.1 7.4 6.1 5.5 4.1 3.0 2.7 Philippines 2.0 to 4.0 3.6 3.3 4.7 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.0 3.5 Singapore 2.5 to 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.3 3.5 2.8 2.2 2.2 Sri Lanka Mid-single digits 9.9 14.9 16.0 15.6 12.4 8.3 7.3 7.0 Taiwan 1.93 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.3 Thailand 1.0 to 3.0 2.4 4.3 3.9 3.7 2.4

46、 1.3 2.2 2.9 Vietnam less than 4.0 1.9 1.9 3.2 4.1 5.8 5.2 3.9 2.9 Notes Australia and New Zealand data are published with quarterly frequency. Mainland Chinas target is our estimate of government forecast for 2022. Hong Kongs target is the government forecast from the 2022-23 Budget. Sri Lanka does

47、 not have a specific target number. Inflation target for Malaysia is MoF forecast for 2022. Taiwans target is the Directorate General of Budgets forecast for 2022. Singapores target refers to the MASs headline inflation forecast range in 2022. Inflation target for Bangladesh is for FY2021-22. Source

48、: Various official sources, CEIC, HSBC forecasts Foreign exchange rate 2-yr Average 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22f 2Q22f 3Q22f 4Q22f Australia 0.72 0.77 0.76 0.73 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 Bangladesh 85.1 84.8 84.8 85.5 85.8 87.0 88.0 88.5 89.0 Mainland China 6.67 6.57 6.46 6.49 6.38 6.30 6.35 6.40 6.45 H

49、ong Kong 7.77 7.78 7.77 7.79 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 India 74.3 73.5 74.3 74.3 74.3 77.0 77.0 76.5 76.0 Indonesia 14,667 14,572 14,496 14,307 14,269 14,400 14,300 14,200 14,200 Japan 109 111 111 112 115 115 115 115 115 Korea 1,165 1,134 1,130 1,185 1,186 1,230 1,215 1,200 1,190 Malaysia 4.18 4.16 4

50、.15 4.19 4.18 4.18 4.15 4.10 4.05 New Zealand 0.68 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.68 Philippines 49.5 48.5 48.5 51.0 50.8 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 Singapore 1.36 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.36 1.34 1.33 1.32 Sri Lanka 194 200 200 201 201 255 255 255 255 Taiwan 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.9 27.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5