麦肯锡-曲道竞速“食”在中国：2022年食杂业展望（英）-48正式版.pdf

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1、November 2021Disruption and uncertainty: The state of grocery 2021China1Disruption and uncertainty: The state of grocery 2021ChinaContents4The battle for monthly active users in China19O2O innovations The next digital disruption or a fad?13Reaching the Chinese consumer in a world where food is every

2、where25The unprecedented acceleration of market trends in China grocery36Seven growth imperatives for Chinas grocery retailers2Disruption and uncertainty: The state of grocery 2021ChinaForewordThe grocery market in China is the most intriguing in the world: it is huge (second only to the United Stat

3、es), it leads the pack in online commerce, and its growing rapidly. It is also a source of inspiration and awe when it comes to digital and online-to-offline (commerce). For the past two decades, the center of gravity for retail innovation has been shifting East, with China leading the pack. Its gro

4、cery market has been disrupted at a speed and frequency that have left traditional players struggling to keep up. After digital giants led the way in retail innovation, with mixed success to date, community group buying emerged last year to disrupt the fresh value chain (although the model has yet t

5、o prove its scalability and sustainability). China is not only an incredibly competitive market but also unique in its consumer demographics (middle and upper-middle class) and geographies (city tiers and clusters), the segments in which tech-based entrants will do battle with traditional retail. It

6、 is also highly unproductive (lowest sales per square meter in the world), severely fragmented, and primarily regional. These factors have created huge challenges for Chinese grocery retailers in delivering economic profit and higher margins. Retailers have taken different paths in recent years to a

7、ddress these challenges: some have sold and exited, others have invested heavily in technology, and a few have redoubled their focus on core retail capabilities.This last group of retailers has found success in elevating their performance. Their strategy? They brought back the mantra of “Retail is d

8、etail” and took a holistic view of the business. Actions included restructuring their networks, reinvigorating their value propositions, embedding analytics and data in their commercial and operations approaches, instilling rigor and discipline through transformation offices that manage the business

9、 for performance, and selectively forging partnerships (for example, with data providers). Will China become a more attractive market, or will the ongoing battles for traffic among retailers continue to challenge the profitability of some business models? The jury is still out.One thing is certain:

10、retailers must continue to keep pace with the competitive landscape and the changing preferences of the Chinese consumer. Retailers will then need to pursue a business-model transformation, which includes integrated omnichannel operations, format innovation, an increase in private brands, supply-cha

11、in automation, and asset-light operations. This path will also require a level of industry consolidation, aided by digital platforms that enable collaboration and partnerships.23Disruption and uncertainty: The state of grocery 2021ChinaAlex Sawaya Senior partner, Hong KongDymfke KuijpersSenior partn

12、er, SingaporeWe strongly believe grocery retailers in China will find a path to profitable growth in the long run. However, the road to a sustainable model will continue to be turbulent. A return to focusing on retail fundamentals is a short-term imperative. For many retailers today, this priority m

13、eans deploying a control tower to free up cash, rejuvenating their value proposition (including fresh), restructuring and refocusing their networks, building data-driven commercial capabilities, and revisiting their logistics setups. This report offers a glimpse of the current state of grocery retai

14、l in China and highlights the factors that will shape the competitive landscape in the years to come. 34Disruption and uncertainty: The state of grocery 2021ChinaThe battle for monthly active users in ChinaIn one of the most competitive grocery markets in the world, valuations that reward increases

15、in monthly active users are at odds with short-term profit growth. AsiaVision/Getty ImagesThis article is a collaborative effort by Cherry Chen, Claire Gu, Dymfke Kuijpers, Joanna Mak, and Alex Sawaya, representing views from McKinseys Retail Practice.C H A P T E R 15Disruption and uncertainty: The

16、state of grocery 2021ChinaChina is unlike any other grocery market. Its consumers are digital crusaders, spoiled by seamless online ecosystems that deliver goods to their doorsteps at lightning speed. Products that used to be available only to city dwellers can now be found in countryside towns. Foo

17、d-delivery services that started off as a way for time-pressed office workers to gulp down a quick bowl of noodles now are pioneering fresh-food innovations. And yet, despite all of these groundbreaking advances, the vast size of China and the decentralized agricultural market thats largely still co

18、mposed of individual farmers make meeting the demands of a diverse consumer base challenging. Fierce competition among retailers also means that consumers arent overtly loyal, preferring to find the next coupon or discount that will get them a similar product, particularly if it means receiving it a

19、 day early. Within this context, Chinese retailers have struggled to turn short- to medium-term profits. Valuations in China tend to focus on monthly active users (MAUs); such focus renders national offline playerswhich have less than 5 percent of market sharenearly moot. Even larger supermarkets st

20、ruggle with relatively low sales, even after our analysis corrects for purchasing power and leases. Chinas distinctive geographic realities, the behaviors of its consumers, and shifts in players in the marketplace combine to create a challenging environment, the details of which we will explore in b

21、elow.Chinas distinctive geographic realities, the behaviors of its consumers, and shifts in players in the marketplace combine to create a challenging environment.6Disruption and uncertainty: The state of grocery 2021ChinaChinas rapid urbanization and digital transformation has created a unique cont

22、ext for retailersOver the past few decades, China has undergone rapid urbanization as individuals leave their rural homes for better jobs and bigger aspirations. By 2020, Chinas urbanization rate reached 60 percent, with 10 percent of the countrys population136 million peopleclustering in Chinas 10

23、largest cities, creating a huge consumer market with increasingly diverse needs. At the same time, Chinas digital revolution has reached everyone with a mobile phone, accelerating e-commerce development. China had 989 million internet users by the end of 2020, 99.7 percent of whom are mobile users a

24、nd 34.0 percent of whom are digital natives. The ubiquity of digital technology means Chinese consumers broadly embrace it and are more willing to share personal data than consumers in other countries (Exhibit 1). In our survey, a higher percentage (38 percent) of Chinese respondents expressed a wil

25、lingness to share personal data, compared to 25 percent of US users and 8 percent of Japanese users. Part of the willingness to do so may be because many Chinese consumers have grown up with this technology and are accustomed to providing personal data in exchange Proximity mobile-payment-user penet

26、ration, % of smartphone users1Willingness to share personal data% of respondents very willing to share31Ages 14+; mobile-phone users who have made at least one proximity-mobile-payment transaction in the last six months; includes point-of-sale transactions made by using mobile devices as a payment m

27、ethod; excludes transactions made via tablet.2Excludes Hong Kong.3Respondents answering 6 or 7 on a 7-point scale to the question Would you share personal data (fnancial, driving records, etc) for benefts (eg, lower cost, personalization, etc)?” Source: Andreessen Horowitz; eMarketerwilling to share

28、 personal data for benefts than users in other countries.China281383029282520161514128413736332726262522DenmarkSouth KoreaSwedenIndiaUnited StatesCanadaNorwayJapanSwitzerlandChina2MexicoRussiaItalyUnited StatesSouth KoreaUnited KingdomFranceCanadaGermanyJapanExhibit 1Chinese consumers adopt digital

29、technology more broadly and are more willing to share personal data for benefits than users in other countries.7Disruption and uncertainty: The state of grocery 2021Chinafor services that make their lives easier. That willingness particularly extends to digital payments, an area in which Chinese con

30、sumers are most ahead of those in other countries. Indeed, 81 percent of Chinas smartphone users are mobile-payment users, compared to 27 percent of US users and 25 percent of Japanese users. The rise of young, free spenders in lower-profile cities In recent years we have watched the number of middl

31、e- and upper-middle-class consumers in smaller, lower-profile tier-three and -four cities1 increase. From 2010 to 2018, the number of households with annual disposable income of 140,000 renminbi to 300,000 renminbi ($22,000 to $46,000) in tier-three and -four cities rose by a 38 percent CAGR, compar

32、ed to 23 percent growth in tier-one and tier-two cities. These relatively affluent households (what we call “upper aspirant” and “mass affluent” classes) account for more than 34 percent of the population in tier-three and -four cities, or nearly the same proportion found in large-tier cities five y

33、ears ago (Exhibit 2).% of upper-aspirant and mass-afuent householdsSource: McKinsey Global InstituteWell-to-do consumers have increased signifcantly in lower-tier cities.20101541772712361541214923512855345939633010203040506070201120122013201420152016201720182019Tiers 1 and 2Tiers 3 and 4% of upper-a

34、spirant and mass-afuent households in low-tier cities is now in line with the proportion in high-tier cities of 5 years agoCAGR of number of upper-aspirant and mass-afu-ent households 2015199%15%Exhibit 2Well-to-do consumers have increased significantly in lower-tier cities.1 Tier-three and -four ci

35、ties refer to Chinese country level cities with GDP under 50 billion renminbi ($7.74 billion). 8Disruption and uncertainty: The state of grocery 2021ChinaFurthermore, a rising cadre of consumers, who we call Young Free Spenders (a segment from McKinseys China consumer report 2020), represent a seism

36、ic shift from past generations in terms of how they view savings and spending. These individuals are todays consumer growth engine, making up 25 percent of the population but representing 60 percent of the total spending growth in China. Young Free Spenders are digital natives under the age of 35 wh

37、o reside predominantly in tier-two, -three, or -four cities, where living costs are lower than tier-one cities. These individuals are flush with disposable cash from white-collar jobs and arent particularly concerned about saving for the future. Not yet tethered by family obligations, they are optim

38、istic about their futures and have little hesitation about spending money on things such as a new tech device, experiential travel, or high-end skin care. They have a lot more time on their hands than their counterparts in larger metropolises because they spend much less time commuting, so they have

39、 ample opportunities to dine out, follow the latest trends, and buy products that enhance their lifestyle and social status. Young Free Spenders also believe that expensive products are generally better than cheaper ones. Together, these ways of thinking afford them considerable spending power (Exhi

40、bit 3). 1Use income as proxy for spending and stated spending change (2018 vs 2017) to calculate relative contribution to spending growth.2All diferences are compared with total average.3MHI: Monthly Household Income (RMB).Source: McKinsey China Consumer Surveyof total spending growth. 25%46%37%260%

41、of total populationAgeIncomeGenderYoung (1834):vs29%24%2vs25%in tier 2, 3 and 4 cities vs16%in tier 1 cities27%24%2vs56%51%2vsMiddle-to-high (MHI3 20,000): Marital statusSingle: City distributionLower-tier cities: Female:of total spending growth1Life attitude“I buy what I want, like luxury bags, the

42、 new season of skincare and color cosmetics and I wont save up to prepare for the future”Shopping attitude “I am willing to spend more on trying new things, especially on leisure and entertainment” Product attitude “I always believe that expensive products are generally better than cheaper ones”“I d

43、ont mind paying more for the brands I love; I frequently visit luxury-branded stores for new arrivals”Exhibit 3Young Free Spenders constitute 25 percent of the population but 60 percent of total spending growth. 9Disruption and uncertainty: The state of grocery 2021ChinaThe increased spending of thi

44、s group in lower-tier cities has been fueled, in part, by e-commerce platforms such as Pinduoduo, which has helped expand the availability of branded products in lower-tier cities. Consumers can now purchase products from more than a thousand brands on these platforms, and Young Free Spenders accoun

45、t for anywhere from 10 to 30 percent of a categorys sales on these sites. Why MAUs matterBecause Chinese consumers already are comfortable with purchasing goods online, its no surprise that online grocery retail has been growing more than 30 percent annually in recent years. Before COVID-19, online

46、penetration reached 20 percent of the market, and the pandemic has further accelerated online grocery-retail spending. More than half of customers purchased consumer packaged goods and one-third of consumers bought fresh food online in the past three months. Much of that growth came from tier-three

47、and -four cities and was driven by logistics expansion of online players including Alibabas TMall and Hema, JD.com, and Xingsheng. In addition, the line between online and offline retailers is blurring as Chinas internet giants experiment with offline stores, and traditional brick-and-mortar operato

48、rs set up mobile apps, contributing to even further online penetration. With online retail playing a pivotal role, the highly frequent and inelastic category of grocery retail has become an important gateway for customer trafficand therefore a battlefield for winning monthly active users. According

49、to our survey, 80 percent of consumers shop for fresh groceries at least once a week, and approximately 60 percent shop nonfresh categories at least once a week. These numbers mean that grocery retailers have at least one interaction with most of their customers every week, offering a large window o

50、f opportunity for cross-selling products and services. These frequent touchpoints translate With online retail playing a pivotal role, the highly frequent and inelastic category of grocery retail has become an important gateway for customer traffic.10Disruption and uncertainty: The state of grocery