2021巴克莱-全球-股票策略-全球智能锁调查：ADT、ALLE与ASSA的启示 巴克莱智能锁.doc

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1、2021巴克莱-全球-股票策略-全球智能锁调查：ADT、ALLE与ASSA的启示 巴克莱智能锁巴克莱-全球-股票策略-全球智能锁调查：ADT、ALLE与ASSA的启示 巴克莱智能锁 CORE Equity Research 1 October 2020 Global Industrials Equity Research Smart Lock Survey: Implications for ADT, ALLE, ASSA We introduce our proprietary Smart Locks Survey, in which we try to provide clarity ar

2、ound factors such as brand awareness, adoption concerns and the potential for AMZN Key. As we refine this product, we hope to be able to track how the industry evolves amidst rising IT penetration, and derive a sense of any material shifts in where value lies in the locks / security products market.

3、 Investor sentiment has shifted, but may be too cautious now: Investors have become increasingly concerned around potential structural issues surrounding the locks / home security market for incumbents as large IT companies (Amazon, Google et al) push into the space (see Ask Alexa For Whom the Bell

4、Rings published 1 March 2020). We believe these concerns are overdone as regards the locks manufacturers such as Allegion and Assa Abloy, and we see ample runway for both companies to continue to gain share within the Electro-mechanical security market. Both businesses have seen above-average growth

5、 in this area (ALLE is growing its Electronic platform at a midteens rate whilst ASSAs residential business in the US is growing at an even higher level), and have new partnerships with IT companies to help provide a wider platform for adoption and better connectivity through the home. Barriers to e

6、ntry for incumbents remain high: One of the biggest debates is whether pricing power will shrink for lock manufacturers as the value in the industry may shift to IT companies / start-ups. Our survey results show that consumers are willing to pay higher prices for smart locks than for traditional one

7、s, and the brand awareness of Schlage, Yale and August is just as high in smart locks as it is in mechanical locks. Barriers to entry remain high for the incumbents, with smaller start-ups having limited traction to date; we show profiles of many industry participants inside. Locks offer the potenti

8、al for superior growth and profitability: Locks continue to be one of the most attractive end markets within Multi-Industry and relative to other Building Products categories. Over the last year, the Locks market has grown organically at 5% (vs. other Building Products growing 3%), with EBIT margins

9、 in the high teens (vs. other Building Products margins in the low to mid teens). Stocks: ALLE (OW) - We believe ALLE is poised to allay investor concerns on its smart lock positioning, and as concerns on price/cost subside given recent price increases it should re-rate to valuations more in line wi

10、th historical norms (15% premium to MI sector vs the current in-line multiple on 2021 estimates). ASSA (OW) We believe ASSA is well positioned in smart locks despite its smaller US residential presence, and we expect it to continue to gain market share given strong brands (Yale, August), its lead in

11、 mobile (SEOS), and partnerships with IT majors (Amazon, Google, Apple). ADT (OW) - Focus is a full-service provider and views itself as manufacturer-agnostic. Notably, 40% of those surveyed now prefer DIY install and self-monitoring over fullservice, which we believe is a much higher rate than only

12、 a few years ago, driven by technology improvements and other factors supporting ease of use. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of i

13、nterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as

14、 research analysts with FINRA. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 24. INDUSTRY UPDATE European Capital Goods NEUTRAL Unchanged U.S. Multi-Industry NEUTRAL Unchanged U.S. Multi-Industry Julian Mitchell +1 212 526 1661 julian.mitchell BCI, US Ronnie Weiss +

15、1 212 526 8431 ronnie.weiss BCI, US Lee Sandquist + 1 212 526 3717 lee.sandquist BCI, US Jason Makishi +1 212 526 5335 jason.makishi BCI, US European Capital Goods Lars Brorson +44 (0)20 3134 1156 lars.brorson Barclays, UK Tanuj Agrawal +44 (0)20 3134 6209 tanuj.x.agrawal Barclays, UK U.S. Business

16、& Professional Services Manav Patnaik +1 212 526 2983 manav.patnaik BCI, US Gregory Bardi, CFA + 1 212 526 7188 gregory.bardi BCI, US 每日免费获取报告 1、 每日微信群内分享5+最新重磅报告； 2、 每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报； 3、 每周分享经济学人 4、 每月汇总500+份当月重磅报告 （增值服务） 扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。 Barclays | Global Industrials Equity Research Survey Summary F 第 6 页 共 6 页