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1、001 今天这期,按惯例是复习,不过作业并不少。 。 。 1阅读理解 TEXT A Predicting how fast a person will be jogging two years hence is tricky, especially when that person is currently flat on his back in a hospitals intensive-care unit. Nonetheless, Wall Street prognosticators are expected to have at least two years of growth e
2、stimates for the economy; securities analysts must also work up two years of earnings estimates for the companies they follow. Thats never an easy task, even for a single company, but massive stimulus spending is making the job even tougher this year. We typically have some sort of stimulus coming o
3、ut of a recession, says Maury Harris, chief U.S. economist at UBS, who has yet to finalize his 2011 economic estimates. What makes it harder than usual is that the stimulus was so much larger than usual. Much of the debate about how well the economy will do post-stimulus has to do with the health of
4、 the U.S. consumer. Some economists believe that consumers, after not spending much in 2009 and 2010, will open their wallets widely in 2011 and all that pent-up demand will give a big boost to the economy. Others believe that two years of saving wont be enough to cure a decade or more of overspendi
5、ng. And with the consumer still focused on paying down debt, economic growth will be slow at best. But it isnt just the end of the stimulus that makes 2011 a tough year to call. It will also be the year that all the Bush tax cuts expire. And Harris thinks that if a health-care overall gets passed, t
6、hat could have significant unforeseen effects on the economy as well. S&Ps chief economist, David Wyss, says he thinks most economists are tackling the tricky problem of predicting what will happen in 2011 by doing what they always do: predict the economy will do about average. The problem is that w
7、hat economists have come to believe is average growth for the U.S. economy in recent years has been falling. The Congressional Budget Office recently said it expects that the U.S. economy will grow on average about 2.2% a year. Thats down from a trend expectation of about 3% just a few years ago. Th
8、e economy will feel better in 2011, says Wyss. But that doesnt mean it will feel good. In general, the projection for late 2010 and 2011, when much of the stimulus spending will have run out, is that the economy will continue to grow but at a rate slower than past recoveries. A recent poll 鬼谷一喵( of
9、economists by the newsletter Blue Chip Economic Indicators found that on average, economists expect the economy to expand 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Thats faster than the economy is growing today, but not what you would expect in good times. The rule is that the deeper the recession, the mo
10、re robust the rebound, says Blue Chip editor Randy Moore. But thats not what people are predicting this time. Absent the stimulus, there is still a worry that there is not much demand out there. Stock-market analysts, who are usually wildly bullish on far-off earnings projections, seem to have the s
11、ame tentative take on the post-stimulus economy. According to Thomson Reuters, analysts believe that on average, companies in the Standard & Poors 500 will earn 22% more in 2011 than they will next year. Thats a larger-than-average jump for corporate profits. But it will be down from the 25% jump an
12、alysts are expecting for 2010, when the stimulus money will still be pumping into the economy. And it is far below other rebounds. In 2003, for instance, corporate profits rose 77%. As government spending winds down, we should start getting stronger growth from other parts of the economy, says S&Ps
13、Wyss. But our rate of growth is still probably going to slow because of the drop after the stimulus. And of course, theres that lingering anxiety over what happens if the stimulus ends and the economy is too weak to generate growth on its own. To be sure, we have a long way to go until the stimulus
14、is finished. The government has spent just $100 billion of the $787 billion that Congress approved in stimulus spending in February. Much of the rest of the money is due to be spent in 2010. As of now, the stimulus spending looks to be having a positive affect on the economy. If that continues, 2011
15、 could be strong as well. If the stimulus affect peters out or worse, causes hyper-inflation, as some worry 2011 could be a year when economists and analysts eat a big slice of humble pie. 1 The relationship between the 1st and 2nd paragraphs is that A.each presents a totally different issue. B.the
16、first poses a comparison to make the second clearer. C.the first exemplifies and the second generalizes. D.the second is the logical consequence of the first. 2 Prognosticators in Paragraph 2 can be best replaced by A.analysts 鬼谷一喵( B.economist C.investors D.predictors 3 Who mentions the relationshi
17、p between health-care program and economic development? A.Maury Harris B.David Wyss C.Randy Moore D.Thomson Reuters 4 We can infer from the fifth and sixth paragraphs that the US economy is growing at an average rate A.slower than 2.2% B.faster than 2.2% but slower than 2.7% C.faster than 2.7% but s
18、lower than 3% D.faster than 3% 5 The economists predict the US economy in 2011 will behave according to the following factors EXCEPT A.the governments economic policies B.the consumers demand C.the effects of the recession D.the basic basic economic law 鬼谷一喵( KEYS:BDAAD TEXT B During the early 17th
19、century, when the city was the Dutch village of New Amsterdam, beavers were widely hunted for their pelts, then fashionable in Europe. The fur trade grew into such a lucrative business that a pair of beavers earned a place on the citys official seal, where they remain today. The real animals vanishe
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