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1、7/11/20222Text A Game Theory7/11/2022Unit One 3Background Information Text OrganizationLanguage StudyFurther Reading and Practice Interests7/11/2022Unit One 4Background Information7/11/2022Unit One 5Avinash Dixit and Barry Nalebuff 7/11/2022Unit One 6Avinash Dixit and Barry Nalebuff Avinash Dixit is

2、 the John J. Sherred Professor of Economics at Princeton University. Barry Nalebuff is Milton Steinbach Professor of Management at Yale University, School of Organization and Management.7/11/2022Unit One 7 Game TheoryGame theory is the mathematical analysis of any situation involving a conflict of i

3、nterest, with the intent of indicating the optimal choices that, under given conditions, will lead to a desired outcome. Although game theory has roots in the study of such well-known amusements as checkers, tick-tack-toe, and pokerhence the nameit also involves much more serious conflicts of intere

4、st arising in such fields as sociology, economics, and political & military science. 7/11/2022Unit One 8 博弈论博弈论博弈论有时也称为对策论是应用数学的一个分支, 是研究具有斗争或竞争性质现象的数学理论和方法,也是运筹学的一个重要学科。目前在社会学,生物学，经济学，国际关系，计算机科学, 政治学，军事战略和其他很多学科都有广泛的应用。 7/11/2022Unit One 9 PrincetonPrinceton is a city in Green Lake County, NJ, Unit

5、ed States. 7/11/2022Unit One 10PrincetonPrinceton7/11/2022Unit One 11 Princeton University7/11/2022Unit One 12 Princeton University7/11/2022Unit One 13 Princeton UniversityPrinceton University is a coeducational private university located in Princeton, New Jersey. It is the fourth-oldest institution

6、 of higher education in the U.S. and is one of the eight Ivy League universities. Princeton has traditionally focused on undergraduate education and academic research, it now offers a large number of top-rated professional Masters degrees and PhD programs in a range of subjects. 7/11/2022Unit One 14

7、John von Neumann7/11/2022Unit One 15 John von Neumann He was a Hungarian-born American mathematician and who made contributions to quantum physics, functional analysis, set theory, economics, computer science, topology, numerical analysis, hydrodynamics (of explosions), statistics and many other mat

8、hematical fields as one of world historys outstanding mathematicians. 7/11/2022Unit One 16 John von NeumannMost notably, von Neumann was a pioneer of the modern digital computer and the application of operator theory to quantum mechanics, a member of the Manhattan Project and the Institute for Advan

9、ced Study at Princeton, and creator of game theory and the concept of cellular automata. Along with Edward Teller and Stanislaw Ulam, von Neumann worked out key steps in the nuclear physics involved in thermonuclear reactions and the hydrogen bomb. 7/11/2022Unit One 17约翰约翰冯冯诺依曼诺依曼 (1903-1957) 匈牙利裔美国

10、数学家, 普林斯顿大学和普林斯顿高等研究所教授,曾任研制原子弹的顾问，并参加研制计算机,被称为计算机之父,1954年成为美国原子能委员会委员.作为二十世纪最杰出的数学家之一, 他在数理逻辑, 测度论, 格论和连续几何学方面都有开创性的成果;在博弈论和控制论,力学,经济学和计算机研制等领域做出了杰出的贡献. 他同莫根施特恩合作，写出博弈论和经济行为(Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, 1947)一书，这是博弈论（又称对策论）中的经典著作，使他成为数理经济学的奠基人之一。7/11/2022Unit One 18 tic-tac-toe Tic-tac-to

11、e is a game in which two players alternately put crosses and circles in one of the compartments of a square grid of nine spaces; the goal is to get a row of three crosses or three circles before the opponent does. 井字棋, 一种益智游戏。7/11/2022Unit One 197/11/2022Unit One 20John Forbes Nash7/11/2022Unit One

12、21 John Forbes Nash John Forbes Nash, Jr. (born on June 13, 1928) is an American mathematician who works in game theory and differential geometry. He shared the 1994 Nobel Prize in Economics with two other game theorists, Reinhard Selten and John Harsanyi. 7/11/2022Unit One 22John Forbes NashHe is b

13、est known in popular culture as the s u b j e c t o f t h e Hollywood movie, A Beautiful Mind, about his mathematical g e n i u s a n d h i s s t r u g g l e s w i t h s c h i z o p h r e n i a . 7/11/2022Unit One 23Nash equilibriumNash equilibrium, has become the cornerstone of game theory. Nash eq

14、uilibrium abstracts the way we reason about strategies in a competitive situation: it codifies I think he will do X because he thinks I will do Y, so I should do Z.7/11/2022Unit One 24 Nash equilibrium 纳什均衡，又称为非合作博弈均衡，是博弈论的一个重要术语，以约翰纳什命名。在一个博弈过程中，无论对方的策略选择如何，当事人一方都会选择某个确定的策略，则该策略被称作支配性策略。如果两个博弈的当事人的

15、策略组合分别构成各自的支配性策略，那么这个组合就被定义为纳什均衡。一个策略组合被称为纳什均衡，当每个博弈者的均衡策略都是为了达到自己期望收益的最大值，与此同时，其他所有博弈者也遵循这样的策略。7/11/2022Unit One 25Prisoners DilemmaThe Prisoners Dilemma is one of the best-known models in game theory. It illustrates the paradoxical nature of interaction between mutually suspicious participants wit

16、h opposing interests. 7/11/2022Unit One 26Prisoners Dilemma 囚徒困境，博弈论的经典案例。囚徒困境是博弈论的非零和博弈中具代表性的例子，反映个人最佳选择并非团体最佳选择。虽然困境本身只属模型性质，但现实中的价格竞争、环境保护等方面，也会频繁出现类似情况。单次发生的囚徒困境，和多次重复的囚徒困境结果不会一样。在重复的囚徒困境中，博弈被反复地进行。因而每个参与者都有机会去“惩罚”另一个参与者前一回合的不合作行为。这时，合作可能会作为均衡的结果出现。欺骗的动机这时可能被受到惩罚的威胁所克服，从而可能导向一个较好的、合作的结果。7/11/202

17、2Unit One 27Hernando Corts He was the conquistador who became famous for leading the military expedition that initiated the Spanish Conquest of Mexico. Corts was part of the generation of European colonizers that began the first phase of the Spanish colonization of the Americas. 7/11/2022Unit One 28

18、Hernando Corts7/11/2022Unit One 29Thomas Schelling7/11/2022Unit One 30Thomas Schelling7/11/2022Unit One 31 Thomas Schelling Thomas Crombie Schelling (born on 14 April 1921) is an American economist and professor of foreign affairs, national security, nuclear strategy, and arms control at the Univers

19、ity of Maryland, College Park School of Public Policy. He was awarded the 2005 Nobel Prize in Economics (shared with Robert Aumann) for “having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game theory analysis”. 7/11/2022Unit One 32 Thomas SchellingSchelling received his bachelors

20、degree in economics from the University of California, Berkeley in 1944. He received his PhD in economics from Harvard University in 1951. Schellings most famous book, The Strategy of Conflict (1960), has pioneered the study of bargaining and strategic behavior and is considered one of the hundred b

21、ooks that have been most influential in the West since 1945. In this book he introduced the concept of the focal point, now commonly called the Schelling point. Schellings economic theories about war were extended in Arms and Influence (1966). 7/11/2022Unit One 33Winston Churchill7/11/2022Unit One 3

22、4The Big Three7/11/2022Unit One 35 Winston Churchill He was the English statesman and author, best known as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom during the Second World War. Well-known as an orator, strategist, and politician, Churchill was one of the most important leaders in modern British and wor

23、ld history. He won the 1953 Nobel Prize in Literature for his many books on English and world history. Sir Winston Churchill was voted the greatest-ever Briton in the 2002 BBC poll the 100 Greatest Britons. 7/11/2022Unit One 36Text Organization Part One (Para. 1-3) Game theory can be defined the sci

24、ence of strategy which studies both pure conflicts (zero-sum games) and conflicts in cooperative forms. Part Two (Para. 4-11) There are two distinct types of strategic interdependence: sequential-move game and simultaneous-move game. 7/11/2022Unit One 37Text Organization Part Three (Para. 12-19) The

25、 typical examples of game theory are given as basic principles such as prisoners dilemma, mixing moves, strategic moves, bargaining, concealing and revealing information. Part Four (Para. 20) The research of game theory has succeeded in illustrating strategies in situations of conflict and cooperati

26、on and it will focus on the design of successful strategy in future.7/11/2022Unit One 38Language Study7/11/2022Unit One 39 range (para. 1)vary between limits, extend, run in a lineThe price ranges from 30$ to 80$.The boundary ranges from north to south. takeover n. the act or an instance of assuming

27、 control or management of or responsibility for something The economy of Hongkong goes well after its takeover. 7/11/2022Unit One 40Game theory was pioneered by Princeton mathematician John von Neumann. (para. 2):pioneer n. original investigator of subject or explorer or settler; initiator of enterp

28、rise The young generation was greatly motivated by the pioneers exploits. The pioneers of Puritans settled down in New England. v. be a pioneer; originate (course of action etc, followed later by others)The new treatment for cancer was pioneered by the experts of state hospital.7/11/2022Unit One 41T

29、hat is, the participants were supposed to choose and implement their actions jointly. (para. 2): That is, the players were expected to select and carry out their actions together. 7/11/2022Unit One 42he must anticipate and overcome resistance to his plans. (para. 3):v. 1) deal with or use before pro

30、per time Ted was not used to saving monthly and he would always anticipate his income.2) to expect or realize beforehand, foresee The experts are anticipating the negative effects of air pollution. The directors anticipated a fall in demand/that demand would fall.7/11/2022Unit One 43The essence of a

31、 game is the interdependence of player strategies. (para. 4)essence n 1) the quality which makes a thing what it is; the inner nature or most important quality of a thing Is the essence of morality right intention? The two things are the same in outward form but different in essence. 7/11/2022Unit O

32、ne 44 2) extract obtained from a substance by taking out as much of the mass as possible milk essence, essence of peppermint essential adj. necessary: indispensable, most important; fundamental Exercise, fresh air and sleep are essential for the preservation of health. Love of fair play is said to b

33、e an essential part of the English character.7/11/2022Unit One 45 interdependence n. the quality or fact of depending on each other interdependent adjinter-前缀前缀 between each other, 类类似的词还有似的词还有interchange, intermarry, international, interview, etc.7/11/2022Unit One 46In principle, any sequential gam

34、e that ends after a finite sequence of moves (para. 6):finite adj. limited; having bounds The petroleum supply is finite for humankind. infinite adj. without limits; having no bounds; (number) that cannot be calculated infinite space Atoms and molecules are infinitely small. 7/11/2022Unit One 47In c

35、ontrast to the linear chain of reasoning for sequential games, a game with simultaneous moves involves a logical circle. (para. 7):A game with simultaneous move requires a logical circular thinking, which is totally different from the linear chain of reasoning for sequential games.7/11/2022Unit One

36、48in ignorance of the others current actions (para. 7): ignorance n. being lacking of knowledge or uninformed The manager was offended by the ignorance of his plans. ignore v. refuse to take notice of; intentionally disregard The president ignored the rising objection against nuclear tests and insis

37、ted on carrying out the original plan. His theory contained something that was ignored in practice. 7/11/2022Unit One 49Game theory quantifies this insight and details the right proportions of such mixtures. (para. 14):insight n. piece of knowledge obtained, understanding; power of seeing into sth.

38、with the mind a man of deep insight Good teachers have insight into the problems of students.。 show insight into human character7/11/2022Unit One 50Recall Winston Churchills dictum of hiding the truth in a “bodyguard of lies”. (para.19): recall v. 1) bring back to mind, remember something Twenty yea

39、rs later he could still clearly recall the event. I seem to recall seeing the document. 2) to order the return of a person who belongs to an organization The ambassador was recalled when war broke out. 7/11/2022Unit One 51 To convey information, use an action that is a credible “signal” (para. 19):

40、v. make (ideas, feelings, etc.) known to another Language conveys message. Words cannot convey how delighted I am that I have accepted by Yale University. 7/11/2022Unit One 52Further Reading7/11/2022Unit One 53 Further Reading IntroductoryAnkeny, Nesmith. Poker Strategy: Winning with Game Theory. 19

41、81. Brams, Steven. Game Theory and Politics. 1979. Dixit, Avinash, and Barry Nalebuff. Thinking Strategically: A Competitive Edge in Business, Politics, and Everyday Life. 1991. McDonald, John. Strategy in Poker, Business and War. 1950. Porter, Michael. Competitive Strategy. 1982. Riker, William. Th

42、e Art of Political Manipulation. 1986. Schelling, Thomas. The Strategy of Conflict. 1960. 7/11/2022Unit One 54 Further Reading Advanced Neumann, John von, and Oskar Morgenstern. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. 1947. Ordeshook, Peter. Game Theory and Political Theory. 1986. Shubik, Martin. Gam

43、e Theory in the Social Sciences. 1982. 7/11/2022Unit One 55Interests7/11/2022Unit One 56 What is Game Theory? (definition) Game theory is the formal study of conflict and cooperation. Game theoretic concepts apply whenever the actions of several agents are interdependent. These agents may be individ

44、uals, groups, firms, or any combination of these. The concepts of game theory provide a language to formulate, structure, analyze, and understand strategic scenarios.7/11/2022Unit One 57 History of Game TheoryAntoine Cournot -the study of a duopoly (1838)Emile Borel -suggested a formal theory of gam

45、es (1921) John von Neumann -publication of the monumental volume Theory of Games and Economic Behavior by John von Neumann and the economist Oskar Morgenstern (1944)7/11/2022Unit One 58 History of Game TheoryJohn Nash-demonstrated that finite games have always have an equilibrium point, at which all

46、 players choose actions which are best for them given their opponents choices (1950)In the 1950s and 1960s, game theory was broadened theoretically and applied to problems of war and politics. 7/11/2022Unit One 59 History of Game TheorySince the 1970s, it has driven a revolution in economic theory.

47、Additionally, it has found applications in sociology and psychology, and established links with evolution and biology. Game theory received special attention in 1994 with the awarding of the Nobel prize in economics to Nash, John Harsanyi, and Reinhard Selten.7/11/2022Unit One 60 Five Basic Elements

48、 of Gamesplayers, or decision makers; strategies available to each player; rules governing players behavior; outcomes, each of which is a result of particular choices made by players at a given point in the game; payoffs accrued by each player as a result of each possible outcome. 7/11/2022Unit One

49、61 Why is Game Theory Useful? Game theory can provide insight into the strategic options and likely outcomes available to participants in particular situations. From this insight, decision-makers can better assess the potential effects of their actions, and can make decisions that will more likely produce the desired goals and avoid conflict.结束结束