经济学管理学基础知识及其应用翻译总.docx

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1、经济学管理学根底学问及其应用资料选读Table of Contents 书目A Note On Frameworks .关于框架几点留意Strategic Tools & Frameworks .战略工具和框架Economics Frameworks .经济学框架Finance & Accounting Frameworks .金融和会计学框架Sample Cases An Introduction.案例探讨背景介绍Sample Case & Suggested Solution.案例探讨和建议Profitability Cases.盈利实力案例Market Entry & General S

2、trategy Cases.市场进入和整体政略案例More Case Questions To Try.补充案例Market Sizing & Estimation Cases .市场细分和预料案例More Market Sizing & Estimation Cases To Try .补充案例Brainteasers .脑经急转弯Cases With Slides.有幻灯片的案例A Note On Frameworks 关于框架的几点留意By the time you face a client, we would like you to feel very confident that

3、you can listen to a description of a situation, and rapidly put together a systematic, logical way of analyzing it. As a consultant, the first important thing is how well you break a problem down and then logically try to solve it. We want you to be able to say to yourself, “Ive done this for severa

4、l cases; I know I can deal with it.当面对客户时，我们盼望你能自信的感觉到：你能够听懂所描述的状况，并且快速地整理为系统, 逻辑的方式来分析。作为询问，最重要的事实你如何切入和分解问题，然后有逻辑地解决问题。我们盼望你有实力对自己说：“我已经在这方面做了几个案例，我知道我能处理。A framework can guide your intelligent questioning of the clients, lets youlay out your analysis in a coherent manner, and lets you apply your

5、experience to the case by pointing out how the case is an instance of a more general problem to which your experience applies.框架能够指导你明智地提问客户提问，让你以连贯的方式进展分析，并且让你通过指出这个案例本质上是你所经验过的某类型问题的一个例子，然后把你的经验应用到这个案例中。 We cannot overemphasize that this is a skill developed through practice. There is no substitut

6、e for confronting a case, building your own systematic way to analyze it, then improving your model through discussions with others. Never be afraid to expose your model to others for fear that it is crude, incomplete, or wrong. All frameworks have holes in them. Thats the whole point of practicingt

7、o learn how to improve your initial models so that you will have a richer and more sophisticated set of organizing schemas to draw upon.我们不能过分强调这是一项通过实践获得的技能。面对案例，建立你自己的系统的方式分析它, 然后通过及别人探讨改善你的模型，这一过程无法代替。恒久不要因为担忧你的模型粗糙, 不完整或者错误而胆怯把她暴露给别人。全部的框架本身都有漏洞。这是实践的关键-学习如何改善你的原始模型以便你能运用有更丰富, 更精细成套组织架构。What is

8、a framework 框架是什么？The world is confusing, and to understand cause-effect relationships, we have to distill most problems to their essence. Thats what theory does, highlight the most important aspects of a situation that account for most of the variance between specific instances of the situation.世界是

9、混乱的，为了理解因果关系，我们不得不提取大多数问题的本质。这就是理论所做的，强调某一情形下最重要的方面，这些方面涵盖了具体事例的大多数变量。You might call these important aspects “drivers or “critical success factors or “independent variables. If our model of the world is almost as complex as the world itself, it is not very usefulmodels help us understand and predict

10、 only when they strip a problem down to something we can grasp, a small set of key driving forces that we can focus on while ignoring other things that have far less explanatory power. If you give a manager a checklist of 37 things to focus on, s/he simply cannot grasp the essence of the problem. If

11、 you can highlight a much smaller number of drivers and articulate the relationships among them, s/he not only can grasp the problem but can apply those insights to other, similar problems.这些重要的方面可以称作“驱动因素或者“关键胜利因素或者“自由变量。假如我们对于现实的模型几乎及现实状况一样困难，这个模型就不太有用了只有当模型把一个问题分解为我们能够驾驭的信息，使我们得以集中精力在一些关键驱动因素上并且可

12、以忽视其它劝服力很弱的因素时，模型才能够扶植我们进展理解和预料。假如你给经理一个有37项须要关注的检查表，她/他确定不能抓住问题的本质。假如你能指出较少的驱动因素并去除说明它们之间的关系，她/他不仅可以抓住问题，而且能把这些洞察应用到别的类似的问题。Frameworksor call them models, analytical schemas, analytical lenses, conceptual maps, etc. show the key cause and effect relationships that you think a person should focus on

13、 to approach a given situation. They apply to a general class of problems; each case is a specific instance of a problem class. The acid test of whether a framework is useful is that it both explains and predicts. It helps you understand what is going on in this case and draw appropriate analogies t

14、o other cases that exemplify the same problem class. It helps you predict what will happen if the client takes a given course of action, and test your prediction by seeing how other cases in the same problem class turn out. These predictions are hypothesesthey are insights into what would follow if

15、the world worked the way your model suggests.框架-或者叫做模型，分析图，分析镜，概念地图等等-展示你认为的一个人处理给定问题时应当关注的关键因果关系。他们应用于某个类型的问题，；每一个案例是此类型问题的具体事例。一个模型是否有用的关键性考验是它既能说明又能预料。它扶植你理解在这个案例发生了什么并且可对同类问题的其它典型案例进展恰当的类推。它扶植你预料当客户按给定程序行动将会发生什么，并且通过视察同类问题的其它案例的结果来检测你的预料实力。这些预料是假定的它们是关于假如实际状况按你给定的模型运转会发生什么事情的洞察。You should not tr

16、y to follow a recipe when constructing frameworks. There are many, many ways to organize an approach to a problem, identify the key drivers, and articulate the relationships among them. However, some of these organizing structures are weak. I will give you a few suggestions here purely to stimulate

17、your thinking, not because they represent the “best frameworks.在构建框架时，你不应当只是遵循步骤。有很多很多切入问题的组织方式，识别关键因素，并且推想们之间的关系。但是，这些组织构造中有一局部是脆弱的。这里，为了刺激你思索，我将给出一些建议，我给出这些建议并非因为它们是最好的框架。Checklists. The weakest framework is the checklist. Simply telling managers, “Here are some things to think about, does not hel

18、p much. A checklist does extract some elements from the problem for managers to focus on, but it does not provide much insight into the nature of the problem, nor does it show the relationship among the elements.检查表。最弱的框架就是清单。只是告知经理们，“这里有一些事情要考虑，并没有多大扶植。检查表的确从问题中提取了一些元素来让经理关注，但是这并未供应对问题本质的视察，更别说展示元素

19、之间的关系。SWOT Analyses. One step up from a checklist, and still a weak framework in my humble view, is a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis. This is basically a checklist supplemented by “pros and cons. Again, it does not provide a lot of insight into the cause-effect rel

20、ationships in the problem, and it does not show a relationship among those elements.SWOT分析。比检查表进一步，但以我谦见仍是一个弱的框架，就是SWOT强势，弱势，时机和威逼分析。这只是补充了“支持和反对的检查表。同样，它并未供应问题因果关系的视察，而且也没有展示这些元素之间的关系。The Familiar Frameworks. Let me pause for a moment here and suggest that I do not think much of the “7S framework M

21、cKinsey used (that is in the heart of In Search of Excellence) when it is used simply as a checklist. Similarly, it is a misuse of Porters five forces model simply to use the forces as topic headings. Porter lays out many causal connections between each force and industry structure; it is the causal

22、 connections, not the list of five forces in and of itself, which is of intellectual value.常见的框架。这里，让我打断几分钟并说明当麦肯锡“7S框架这是“找寻最优的核心只是用作清单时，我并不认为它多么好。同样的，它只是简洁地把波特的五力模型的驱动力滥用到标题。波特展示了各个驱动力和产业构造的众多因果联系；它是因果联系，并不只是五力自身或其清单，这些是智力奉献。Articulating the three generic strategies (cost leadership, differentiatio

23、n - broad market, and differentiation - narrow market) is not very interesting; what is interesting is the notion that being “stuck in the middle does not work. Breaking a problem down into business processes of value chains represents progress only if you can articulate something about the interrel

24、ationships among those processes or links.描述三大战略本钱领先, 差异化战略, 集中并不是很好玩；好玩的是这一概念“卡在中间没有用。只有当你可以清晰描述这些过程或环节的内在关系时，把一个问题分解为价值链的商业过程才代表进步。Matrices. A popular framework that is often misused is a matrix, from the hoary 2x2 to the sophisticated multi-dimensional matrices. Drawing a matrix does not in itsel

25、f constitute building a framework. What matters is whether you can articulate how the cells are different in some systematic way.矩阵。一个常被滥用的流行的框架便是矩阵，从长远的2x2矩阵到成熟的多维矩阵。画一个矩阵本身并不是建立一个框架。重要的是你是否能以某种系统的方式描述元素的不同之处。“Fit Frameworks. Somewhat more sophisticated is a “fit framework. For example, you were ex

26、posed to the Tushman-Nadler diagnostic model in Organizational Behavior. The idea is that the organization works only when it achieves congruence between its internal structure and the environment, and congruence among its internal elements. For example, and “organic structure may represent a better

27、 fit in a turbulent environment that a “mechanistic structure, which works better in more predictable environments.“匹配性框架。确定程度上更成熟的是“匹配性框架。例如，在组织行为中你会面对塔什曼-纳德尔诊断模型。其思想是仅当在内部构造和环境之间，以及内部元素之间到达一样性时组织才有效运行。例如，“有机的构造或许代表更适合紊乱的环境，而“机械构造的环境往往适合可预料性强的环境。Similarly, a low-cost producer cannot afford heavy R&

28、D investments, while a firm pursuing first-mover strategy cannot compete on the basis of efficiency. To use this kind of framework, you need to spell-out the elements and what kinds of congruent configurations they can form.同样的，当一个追求先行战略的公司无法基于效率进展竞争时，低本钱的生产者无法支付大量研发投资。为了运用这种框架，你须要列出这些元素以及他们可以形成的一样性

29、配置。Decision Trees. An excellent framework is a decision tree. You have had considerable practice constructing these during your first year, and decision trees have a good deal of rigor and value, especially in forcing you to identify contingencies. Those you interviewing with McKinsey will find that

30、 decision trees are looked on with great favor there.决策树。决策树是一个优秀的框架。在第一年，你已经有相当多的经验来构造这些，并且决策树很严谨很有价值，尤其在强迫你识别偶然事务时。面试过麦肯锡的人会发觉决策树在那里是很受青睐的。Causal models. An often less formal framework than a decision tree is a causal model, that essentially shows the cause and effect relationships between a set o

31、f drivers. These models tend to oversimplify contingencies, but nonetheless can add considerable clarity to your thinking. The most formal kind of cause model you could propose is a multivariate equation, which with absolute precision and clarity specifies what you think the drivers are, how they af

32、fect the outcome, and what the functional form of their impact would look like.缘由模型。缘由模型通常没有决策树模型正式，它在本质上展示了一系列驱动因素间的因果关系。这些模型倾向于过度简化偶然事务，尽管如此它还是给你的思索增加了相当大的清晰度。你能提出的最正式的因果模型是多变量方程，它在定义方面有着确定精确性和清晰度，定义你认为驱动力是什么，他们如何影响结果，以及他们影响的作用原理是怎样的。Some causal models specify the dynamics of a situation, often by

33、 uncovering interlocking cycles of a behavior over time. Again, the point is not that such models are perfect over time, but cyclical behavior is very common in the world, and powerful insights can be gained from identifying interlocking cycles that dampen and/or reinforce one another.一些缘由模型通常通过揭露确定

34、时间跨度内行为的联锁循环，描述了形势的动态性。同样，关键并不是这个模型始终是完备的，而是实际生活中循环性行为是很常见的， 而且从识别出此消彼长的联锁循环中可获得有力的洞察。With imagination and insight, you will create other types of frameworks. What all good frameworks have in common is that they identify the drivers of a situation and specify both the interrelationships among those

35、drivers and how they affect important outcomes.通过想象和视察，你将会创建出其他类型的框架。全部好的框架的共性是它们识别出某一情形的驱动力并且具体说明这些驱动力的内在关系以及它们是如何影响重要结果的。Strategic Tools & Frameworks 战略工具和框架General marketing, strategy and operations concepts for use in consulting 用于询问的市场, 战略, 操作的一般概念General Tools For Consulting 询问的一般工具The list pr

36、esented in the following sections, though not exhaustive, covers most of the standard tools you will use in consulting. Use these tools to think about the key issues and to lead you from the facts to a conclusion.以下展示的列表，虽不是详尽的，却覆盖了大多数你在询问中会用到的标准工具。运用这些工具来思索关键事务并指导你从事实走向结论。As you look at these tools

37、, though, remember that no framework or tool is as good as an original framework or tool. Play with these ideas and frameworks until you develop a set of your own frameworks that you feel comfortable using.但是，当你看这些工具时，切记没有任何框架或工具比原始框架或工具要好。琢磨这些思想和框架，直到你形成了一套你用起来舒适的自己的框架。Finally, pay attention to how

38、 logically you structure your proposal or answer. This is a bit more straightforward to learn than the frameworks, but is no less important. An example of a structure for your interaction is:1. State or restate the problem.2. Identify the key issues for further investigation.3. Apply the relevant fr

39、ameworks.4. Summarize and provide a recommendation. It may also be useful to discuss implications of your recommendation such as competitive reactions and acceptance within the client organization.最终，关注你如何逻辑性地构造你的建议或答案。这比框架要学的更干脆，但并不是更不重要。让你互动的一个构造的例子： 4.总结并供应建议。探讨你的建议的含义例如在客户组织中竞争性反响和承受度，或许也是有用的。Th

40、e Five Forces 五力Michael Porters “Five Forces Model for industry structure and attractiveness analysis is a classic analysis for cases that involve a decision as to whether to invest in or enter a given industry. The five forces are:Threat Of New EntrantsThreat Of SubstitutesSupplier Power Buyer Powe

41、r Industry Rivalry迈克尔波特的行业构造和吸引力分析的“五力模型是决策是否投资或进入某一行业经典分析工具。这五种力是：新进入者的威逼替代品威逼供应商的议价实力购置者的议价实力同行业竞争者的竞争程度。Threat Of New Entrants. This force measures the ease with which new competitors may enter the market and disrupt the position of other firms. The threat that outsiders will enter a market is st

42、ronger when the barriers to entry are low or when incumbents will not fight to prevent a newcomer from gaining a market foothold. In addition, when a newcomer can expect to earn an attractive profit, the barriers to entry are diminished.新进入者的威逼。这一驱动力测量新竞争者进入市场打破其他公司地位的简洁度。当进入壁垒低或者在位者并未阻挡新进入者获得市场份额时，

43、外部进入者带来的威逼越大。另外，当新进入者能预料到巨大盈利时，进入壁垒降低。Threat of Substitutes. The threat posed by substitute products is strong when the features of substitutes are attractive, switching costs are low, and buyers believe substitutes have equal or better features.替代品的威逼。当替代品的特征越有吸引力，转换本钱越低，并且买方信任替代品是同质或者更好的，替代产品产生的威逼

44、也越强。Supplier Power. Suppliers to an industry are a strong competitive force whenever they have sufficient bargaining power to command a price premium for their materials or components. Suppliers also have more power when they can affect competition among industry rivals by the reliability of their d

45、eliveries or by the quality and performance of the items they supply.供应商的议价实力。无论何时当供应商的对其材料或成品有充分的定价实力时，他在一个行业中就是一个很强的竞争力。当供应商能以其产品的牢靠性, 质量或性能影响行业内同业者的竞争是时，他们的竞争力也更大。Buyer Power. Buyers become a stronger competitive force the more they are able to exercise bargaining leverage over price, quality, se

46、rvice, or other terms or conditions of sale. Buyers gain strength through their sheer size and when the purchase is critical to the sellers success.买方的讨价还价实力。当买方越能够在价格水平，质量，效劳，或销售的其它条件上运用谈判杠杆时，它就越成为一个强大的竞争力。买方通过他们巨大的购置量或当此选购对卖方的胜利特别关键时，买方获得优势。Industry Rivalry. Often, the most powerful of the five forces