2020年全球白银展望.docx

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1、JWK HSBCGlloballl29 November 2019Silver Outlook 2020Silvers golden starCommoditiesPrecious MetalsGlobal We expect silver to rally modestly in 2020 based on firm gold prices and rising investor demand stoked by risk-off sentimentA strong USD and uncertain industrial demand pose headwinds to rallies,

2、but jewelry, bar, and coin demand has been rising We forecast a deficit of 87moz for 2020 and raise our average price forecast for that year to USD17.47/oz from USD16.25/ozOutlook expected to improveSilver was weighed down in 1H by a firm USD, strong financial markets, and growing stockpiles. Invest

3、or sentiment has improved, although prices remain volatile. A gold rally, and ongoing risks and economic uncertainty triggered investor appetite for silver, notably the ETFs. While silver has given back a good portion of gains, we remain positive. While Fed policy may be only moderately silver-suppo

4、rtive, loose global monetary policies and fiscal stimulus could aid silver prices more. HSBC FX strategists forecast a firm USD, which is likely to be silvers greatest headwind. High stocks may also present limits to rallies. That said, we still look for silver to gain and forecast an average price

5、of USD17.47/oz for 2020 with a range of USD15.50-19.45/oz.This video is available as a podcast Subscribe via research.hsbc James SteelChief Precious Metals AnalystHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.james.steelus.hsbc +1 2125253117Industrial demand sluggishThe impact of trade risks, although good for investme

6、nt demand, has weighed on industrial silver consumption - notably electronics, although photovoltaic demand is rising. Mild global industrial growth in 2020 should aid demand. Jewelry offtake is rising notably in India as it wins market share from gold. Mine supply is likely to edge up in 2019 and 2

7、020, before easing later in the next decade. Recycling supply should stay constrained, as low prices reduce incentives to reprocess silver. Our forecast for modest supply/demand deficits this year and next support our mildly bullish outlook.Investor demand should recoverExchange traded fund (ETF) ho

8、ldings have surged, evidence of growing investor demand. Meanwhile, Comex positions have also grown. We see more room for ETF holdings to rise and net long positions increase, should economic risks rise. Coin demand is recovering from low levels. Bar demand appears more stable. Low prices and greate

9、r retail and institutional demand should stimulate coin and bar demand in 2020. Investors* silver demand may remain strongly linked to gold prices, which encouraged demand in Q3. Firm gold prices going forward is key for higher silver prices, in our view.HSBC silver price forecasts (average)2019f 20

10、20f 2021f Long term* (USD/oz) OldNew OldNew OldNew OldNewSilver16.27unch16.2517.4718.45unch20.00unchNote: Tong term = five years. Year-end 2019 and 2020 forecasts are USD17.25/oz and USD18.50/oz, respectively. Source: HSBC forecastsDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosure

11、s and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) IncView HSBC Global Research at:h tips :/ research, hsbc. comDemand trendsIndustry absorbs over half of physical supply; trade tensions have dented ele

12、ctronic demand, but solar consumption is increasing Jewelry may gain, buoyed by India; coin and bar demand continues to recover from a low base; low prices are stimulating demandImports to India are up notably this year, but Chinas have been weak; low prices should also encourage greater demandAn in

13、dustrial strength metalSilver industrial demand accounts for over half of physical silver supplySilver industrial demand accounts for over half of physical silver supplyIndustrial offtake is the single-biggest demand source for silver, constituting over half of total physical consumption. After peak

14、ing at c508moz in 2011, industrial demand contracted every year until 2017 when it rose notably, pushing well above 515moz, according to The Silver Institutes Interim Silver Market Review complied by Metals Focus. Demand eased very slightly to 514moz in 2018, according to the Review. While short-ter

15、m investment flows and trading largely dictate prices in the near term, we maintain that over the long haul, industrial offtake is a key driver of physical silver demand and prices. Sluggish industrial offtake is an important - if little discussed - reason for generally weaker prices in this timefra

16、me, including declines earlier this year, we believe. Peak silver industrial offtake coincided with a high average price of USD35/oz in 2011 compared with just above USD15.70/oz in 2018. Chart 12 shows global industrial production growth and industrial silver demand.After a solid 15moz increase in d

17、emand in 2017, which took industrial demand to 516moz, industrial demand eased slightly to 514moz in 2018, according to the Review. This year industrial demand has been impacted by a myriad of factors. These include declines in auto production globally, offset by greater use of silver per unit vehic

18、le in the auto industry. Electronic and traditional industrial demand such as solders and alloys appear down, but solar power and a range of environmental and new application demand is rising.Golbal silver industrial fabricationSource: Silver Institute GFMS Refinitiv HSBCGlobal Industrial production

19、We forecast that industrial demand will edge lower by 3moz to 511moz in 2019, and increase to 518moz in 2020We forecast that industrial demand will edge lower by 3moz to 511moz in 2019, and increase to 518moz in 2020We forecast industrial demand will edge lower by 3moz to 511moz in 2019 and increase

20、 7moz to 518moz in 2020 amid moderate increases in global industrial production, as forecast by HSBC economists (see charts 13 and 14). Sluggish physical demand figures in our calculus for restrained silver prices this year and next. That said, short of markedly weaker than anticipated industrial pr

21、oduction globally, we believe industrial silver offtake is unlikely to fall much further. Small but necessary amounts of silver are required in millions of electronic devices and it is essential in a host of chemical and industrial processes. With relatively limited exceptions, silvers industrial of

22、ftake is typically more a function of the demand for manufactured or semifinished products, such as electronics and other items, than a function of underlying silver prices. This makes industrial demand highly price inelastic. And while there is an ongoing process of substitution and thrifting displ

23、acing a modest amount of silver usage, the changes are modest year to year and have been more than offset by new applications.This bedrock level of industrial demand for silver may help support prices. Further to this point, it may be difficult for silver to sustain a sharp rally - say well above US

24、D20/oz - in the absence of better industrial production growth, at least in silver-intensive sectors of industry. Also, steady industrial offtake alone does not guarantee higher prices in the absence of strong investor interest. Silvers industrial demand is mostly a function of industrial output. Bu

25、t industrial production alone does not provide an exact guideline for silver demand in manufacturing and industrial processes. Silver is also influenced by each applications refining cycles. Refined product may be closed-looped and not officially reported. This helps explain periods of weak silver o

26、fftake despite relatively high levels of industrial output. Consumption will also be impacted by the individual business cycle of heavy silver users including electronics, chemicals, and autos.That said, silver has a baseline of demand below which it is unlikely to fall. Silvers industrial applicati

27、ons include electrical and electronic products, medical applications, antibacterial clothing, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. Newer uses include some applications in catalytic converters in automobiles, photovoltaic solar cells, water purification, and wood treatment, as well as healthcare. In more

28、traditional industries, silver is used in batteries, bearings, brazing, and soldering, as well as ink and mirrors. Autos are a strong growth area for silver. In previous Outlooks, we have discussed silvers uses in a variety of industrial and manufacturing processes, notably solar. We now select a fe

29、w categories for further examination in this report that we believe will have the most impact on prices.Electronic and electrical applications account for 40% of industrial silver demandElectrical and electronics. Silver is a necessary component in a host of applications in electronics, including au

30、tos, construction, and consumer electronics. Electronic and electrical consumption is the single largest source of silver industrial demand, accounting for a steady 40% of total industrial demand offtake and a quarter of total physical silver consumption. Silver demand is significant in many electro

31、nic producing nations, such as China, Korea, the US, Taiwan, Japan, and Germany. The trade tensions and tariffs have had a disruptive impact on supply chains and the production of electronic goods globally, which in turn has undermined silver demand. Using semiconductor sales as a rough proxy for el

32、ectrical and electronic demand, and analyzing the latest data from World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, the semiconductor market is likely to be weak this year. Following 13.7% growth globally in 2018, the Worldwide Semiconductor Market is expected to be down 13.3% to USD407bn this year before retu

33、rning to growth in 2020. All geographical regions are expected to be down this year, but for 2020 all regions are forecasted to grow, with the overall market up 4.8%, The outlook for silver in the key auto industry is mixed. Loadings of silver per vehicle are rising due to greater use in wiring, saf

34、ety and computer features, and the electrification of automobile components, but this is offset by weaker auto demand globally. In EV battery materials monitor: Darkest Hour (12 November 2019), HSBCs global ag/EV materials analyst, Alexandre Falcao, points out recent weakness in EV battery and auto

35、demand.The power of greenSilver has important applications in the construction of solar panelsSilver has important applications in the construction of solar panelsSilver is a highly versatile metal with unique chemical and conductive properties and has widespread applications in environmental techno

36、logies. The ongoing shift - and in many cases acceleration-to green technologies from both a commercial and regulatory standpoint are likely to boost silver demand. Among the most notable in this regard is photovoltaic or PV demand for silver. Silver has important applications in the construction of

37、 solar panels. Silver has the highest electrical and thermal conductivity of all metals and is a prime ingredient in photovoltaic cells and 90% of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells (most common in solar panels).Silver has a critical role to play in solar power despite near-term uncertaintiesIn

38、the recently published Renewables 2019, the International Energy Agency forecast that global renewable power capacity is set to expand by 50% between 2019 and 2024, led by solar photovoltaic demand. The forecast increase of 1,200 GW is equivalent to the total currently installed power capacity of th

39、e United States. Solar PV alone accounts for almost 60% of expected power growth, with onshore wind representing one-quarter. The lEAs analysis contains an in-depth look at distributed solar PV, which is set to more than double in capacity in the next five years. The demand for silver in solar power

40、 can vary from country to country, depending on subsidies, incentives, and tax policy. Demand has slowed in China due to market saturation and changes in subsidies. That said, we are confident that overall demand for silver in this process is likely to grow. Chinas solar power industry is an importa

41、nt source of silver demand. China is comfortably the largest solar panel/module producer and long-term power demand and environmental concerns assure a recovery in solar power construction. US demand is likely to grow as the market takes advantage of the Investment Tax Credit. This despite cost pres

42、sures and technological migration continuing to drive silver loadings lower.While silver in PV applications faces thrifting, the name given to the process that allows less silver to be used per unit due to technological gains, prices are not high enough to motivate additional advances in this area.

43、Despite headwinds including tariffs, trade risks, reductions in subsidies, and the drop in price in competing energy sources (such as oil), a further rise in PV installations will support silver offtake going forward in 2020. That said, we do not expect anything like pre-2018 growth levels to be rep

44、eated. In addition to PV applications, silver is being used in greater levels in battery electric vehicles, nuclear power, and other environmental uses.Other industrial uses. An important demand source for industrial silver is the chemical sector. The production of ethylene oxide - which requires si

45、lver catalysts - is one of many examples of chemical processes that need a silver input. Production of naphtha, petroleum refining, and a variety of petrochemical processes require silver. Demand in many of these applications has been sluggish and may not improve until 2020. In Global Chemicals: Chi

46、na supply growth - deja vu again (7 November 2019), HSBCs Global Head of Chemicals Research Sriharsha Pappu said cyclical conditions for the commodity chemical industry remain poor, in part due to weak demand, which is not expected to improve until we see a possible cyclical recovery, possibly start

47、ing in 2H 2020. Likely strong chemical demand for environmentally friendly technologies and products, many of which require a silver input, including water purification and recycling applications, should aid demand. Increased crude oil refining and a shift to cleaner refined fuels should also aid si

48、lvers petrochemical demand. Our industrial demand view for silver is compatible with the view that global GDP growth will continue at a moderate pace (but lower than 2018) given HSBCs forecasts for global industrial production growth of 3.0% and 3.2% in 2019 and 2020. See Global Economics Quarterly:

49、 Puling the air back in (26 September 2019).New applications: Silvers versatility allows for its use in a growing range of new, often environmentally friendly, applications. One such application is using a silver catalyst to convert carbon dioxide to carbon monoxide, a feedstock for synthetic fuels and pharmaceuticals. As the effects of climate change are growing more pronounced, silver m