美赛E题解法思路.doc

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1、E题解法思路，2018年美赛题采用气候统计模型此题容易获奖，只要在网上收集世界各国的GDP，人口，气温，降水，粮食产量等数据，建立统计回归模型，就能解决下面的几个问题。任务1：开发一个模型来确定一个国家的脆弱性，同时测量气候变化的影响。您的模型应该识别一个状态是脆弱的、脆弱的还是稳定的。它还应查明气候变化如何通过直接手段或间接影响脆弱性，因为它影响其他因素和指标。解法思路，采用气候脆弱性统计模型任务2：选择的前10名最脆弱国家的脆弱状态指标确定（http:/fundforpeace.org/fsi/data/）和确定了气候变化可能对国家的脆弱性增加。使用你的模型来显示，如果没有这些影响，状态可

2、能会更脆弱。解法思路，采用最脆弱气候统计模型任务3：把你的模型运用到另一个不在前10位的状态来衡量它的脆弱性，看看气候变化会以什么方式以及何时促使它变得更脆弱。确定任何明确的指标。你如何定义一个临界点并预测一个国家什么时候能到达它？解法思路，采用脆弱气候统计模型任务4：用你的模型说明哪些国家驱动的干预措施可以减轻气候变化的风险，防止一个国家成为脆弱的国家。解释人类干预的效果并预测该国干预的总成本。解法思路，采用干预气候统计模型任务5：您的模型将在较小的“国家”（如城市）或更大的“国家”（如大洲）上工作吗？如果没有，您将如何修改您的模型？解法思路，采用局部气候统计模型2018 ICM问题E：气候

3、变化如何影响区域不稳定？气候变化的影响，包括增加的干旱、冰川萎缩、动植物范围的变化以及海平面的上升，已经开始实现，并因地区而异。政府间气候变化专门委员会指出，气候变化的净破坏成本可能是显著的。许多这些影响将改变人类的生活方式，并有可能导致社会和政府结构的削弱和崩溃。因此，不稳定的政府，可能导致脆弱的国家。脆弱的国家是国家政府不能或不愿意为其人民提供基本必需品的地方。就这个问题而言，“国家”指的是一个主权国家或国家。作为一个脆弱的国家，增加了一个国家人口遭受自然灾害、减少耕地、不可预测的天气和气温升高等气候冲击的脆弱性。不可持续的环保措施，迁移，和资源短缺，这是常见的在发展中国家，可能进一步加剧

4、，国弱治理（施瓦兹和兰达尔，2003；gleditsch特性，并buhaug，2013）。可以说，叙利亚和也门的干旱进一步加剧了已经脆弱的国家。环境压力本身并不一定引发暴力冲突，但有证据表明，当它与薄弱的治理和社会分裂相结合时，它能引发暴力冲突。这种融合可以提高暴力的恶性循环，通常沿潜在的民族和政治分歧（krakowka，Heimel，和加尔加诺2012）。您的任务如下：任务1：开发一个模型来确定一个国家的脆弱性，同时测量气候变化的影响。您的模型应该识别一个状态是脆弱的、脆弱的还是稳定的。它还应查明气候变化如何通过直接手段或间接影响脆弱性，因为它影响其他因素和指标。任务2：选择的前10名最脆弱

5、国家的脆弱状态指标确定（http:/fundforpeace.org/fsi/data/）和确定了气候变化可能对国家的脆弱性增加。使用你的模型来显示，如果没有这些影响，状态可能会更脆弱。任务3：把你的模型运用到另一个不在前10位的状态来衡量它的脆弱性，看看气候变化会以什么方式以及何时促使它变得更脆弱。确定任何明确的指标。你如何定义一个临界点并预测一个国家什么时候能到达它？任务4：用你的模型说明哪些国家驱动的干预措施可以减轻气候变化的风险，防止一个国家成为脆弱的国家。解释人类干预的效果并预测该国干预的总成本。任务5：您的模型将在较小的“国家”（如城市）或更大的“国家”（如大洲）上工作吗？如果没有

6、，您将如何修改您的模型？您提交的内容应包括：一页表，你解不超过20页，最多为你总结的21页。注：参考目录和任何附件，不计入21页的限制，应该在完成解决方案之后出现。引用：2018 ICMProblem E: How does climate change influence regional instability?The effects of Climate Change, to include increased droughts, shrinking glaciers, changing animal and plant ranges, and sea level rise, are a

7、lready being realized and vary from region to region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant. Many of these effects will alter the way humans live, and may have the potential to cause the weakening and breakdown

8、 of social and governmental structures. Consequently, destabilized governments could result in fragile states.A fragile state is one where the state government is not able to, or chooses not to, provide the basic essentials to its people. For the purpose of this problem “state” refers to a sovereign

9、 state or country. Being a fragile state increases the vulnerability of a countrys population to the impact of such climate shocks as natural disasters, decreasing arable land, unpredictable weather, and increasing temperatures. Non-sustainable environmental practices, migration, and resource shorta

10、ges, which are common in developing states, may further aggravate states with weak governance (Schwartz and Randall, 2003; Theisen, Gleditsch, and Buhaug, 2013). Arguably, drought in both Syria and Yemen further exacerbated already fragile states. Environmental stress alone does not necessarily trig

11、ger violent conflict, but evidence suggests that it enables violent conflict when it combines with weak governance and social fragmentation. This confluence can enhance a spiral of violence, typically along latent ethnic and political divisions (Krakowka, Heimel, and Galgano 2012).Your tasks are the

12、 following:Task 1: Develop a model that determines a countrys fragility and simultaneously measures the impact of climate change. Your model should identify when a state is fragile, vulnerable, or stable. It should also identify how climate change increases fragility through direct means or indirect

13、ly as it influences other factors and indicators.Task 2: Select one of the top 10 most fragile states as determined by the Fragile State Index (http:/fundforpeace.org/fsi/data/) and determine how climate change may have increased fragility of that country. Use your model to show in what way(s) the s

14、tate may be less fragile without these effects.Task 3: Use your model on another state not in the top 10 list to measure its fragility, and see in what way and when climate change may push it to become more fragile. Identify any definitive indicators. How do you define a tipping point and predict wh

15、en a country may reach it?Task 4: Use your model to show which state driven interventions could mitigate the risk of climate change and prevent a country from becoming a fragile state. Explain the effect of human intervention and predict the total cost of intervention for this country.Task 5: Will y

16、our model work on smaller “states” (such as cities) or larger “states” (such as continents)? If not, how would you modify your model?Your submission should consist of: One-page Summary Sheet, Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 21 pages with your summary. Note: Reference list an

17、d any appendices do not count toward the 21-page limit andshould appear after your completed solution.References:Krakowka, A.R., Heimel, N., and Galgano, F. “Modeling Environmenal Security in Sub-SharanAfrica ProQuest.” The Geographical Bulletin, 2012, 53 (1): 21-38.Schwartz, P. and Randall, D. “An

18、Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications forUnited States National Security”, October 2003.http:/eesc.columbia.edu/courses/v1003/readings/Pentagon.pdfTheisen, O.M., Gleditsch, N.P., and Buhaug, H. “Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?”Climate Change, April 2013, V117 (3), 613-625.Helpful Links:Fragile States Index: http:/fundforpeace.org/fsi/The World Bank: http:/www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/bri