主题策略~公募基金三季报回顾：整体仓位抬升增持电子医药.docx

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1、市场概况：主动偏股型基金仓位继续提升主动偏股型基金仓位三季度回升，至两年来最高水平公募基金2019年三季报于上周末披露结束，从持仓情况来看：1）全部公募基金股票类资产占比连续4个季度上升。2019年三季度中美经贸协商过程 曲折演绎；国内增长承压、政策逐步发力。A股市场在这种背景下整体呈现为横盘 震荡、局部活跃。上证综指三季度单季下跌2.5%,但全部公募基金的股票类资产规 模以及占基金总资产的比例不降反升（规模从上半年的2.08万亿元提升至2.22万亿 元，占比从14.8%提升至15.6%）o股票类资产规模环比提升7%,高于同期债券和现 金类资产的环比增幅（分别为1%和5%）。2）主动偏股型基金

2、仓位回升至84.6%，为两年来最高水平。从主动偏股型基金（一般 股票型+偏股混合型）来看，股票类资产占比由上半年的82.6%上升至84.6%,持股 市值从上半年的0.87万亿元回升至0.93万亿元，增幅7%o灵活配置型基金的股票 仓位比例也从上半年的53%提升至55%o猪价受非洲猪瘟等因素综合影响屡创新高，使得即使PPI及非食品价格整体偏低迷的情 况下，9月份CPI单月同比依然到达3%o消费者物价指数在未来几个季度维持高位是大 概率事件。从A股历史表现来看，市场整体在CPI高位期间往往上行乏力，从操作上， 对于稳健型投资者我们建议控制仓位；风险偏好更强的投资者可以关注局部的对宏观不 敏感的板块

3、的机会，如科技、农林牧渔、食品饮料、医药等。绝对大市值的低估值板块，如 金融等在市场面临压力期间可能也会有相对表现。图表1：全部公募基金中股票市值2.2万亿元图表2:全部基金资产中股票占比略有回升200%200%14,00012,00010,0008,0006,00016Q00 g b4150%100%50%：% -0%I 90、裳 g。目S 2 SO/JBE b QQQ. s8L/das 8三国 ZL-des ZEE 9 Id名 9三W gL/da 寸:ds 寸三W coL/das cou卷 CML/das CM三 二/da l m OL/da 0-J 60、d s 85JE 工 dew -

4、90aas-50%-100%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%4 一16%6L、Je 工 8LO.9S ZLte 工 9L/d&s gLte工 SL/d9s SLte 工 寸 LO.9S 寸三ro工 e./des gLte 乏 OJL/das NL/Je 工 二/da LEe乏 0LO.9S OL-Je 工 60K9S 60、Je 工 80Q.9S 80te 工 ZOQ.0S 工 90O.9S 90/e工 goQ.as InoJe 工 寸 0Q.9S 寸。、工 coo/das6.0005,0004,0003,0002.0001.000U股票 一债券 一基金 一权证

5、现金 -其他资产 一规模同比增速（右）U股票 一债券 一基金 一权证 现金 -其他资产 一规模同比增速（右）U3股票 一债券 法金 权证 现金 一-其他资产 一沪深300（右）资料来源：万得资讯,资料来源：万得资讯,图表29: 3Q19主动偏股型基金重仓减持家数前50公司代码证券简称行业持有家数持有市值（百万元）表现2Q193Q19家数变化2Q193Q19市值变化3Q194Q19600887.SH伊利股份食品饮料172105-678298.15139.5-3158.6-14.6-3.3300014.SZ亿纬锂能电子8341-423248.01588.3-1659.7-0.29.5000858.

6、SZ五粮液食品饮料270238-3221304.020866.7-437.310.0-4.2601155.SH新城控股房地产322-302058.215.5-2042.728.722.3600438.SH通威股份农林牧渔7848-304479.73287.7-1192.1-9.4-0.4002304.SZ洋河股份食品饮料4318-254094.52930.7-1163.9-14.4-2.6002157.SZ正邦科技农林牧渔4420-241623.9661.0-963.0-9.326.0002371.SZ北方华创电子4319-241512.9642.1-870.7-5.2-6.0601688.S

7、H华泰证券证券及其他6137-241105.7966.4-139.3-13.1-8.3601933.SH永辉超市商贸零售5734-235395.22678.4-2716.8-12.9-6.6000333.SZ美的集团家用电器174152-2210485.59631.1-854.3-1.54.8000568.SZ泸州老窖食品饮料124103-2111985.812178.1192.37.4-4.8601318.SH中国平安保险366345-2124528.021597.7-2930.3-0.9-0.3002271.SZ东方雨虹建材3617-192695.02692.8-2.2-7.26.4601

8、336.SH新华保险保险3923-162299.71204.6-1095.2-10.20.9300567.SZ精测电子机械161-15660.023.1-636.9-11.0-19.5600028.SH中国石化石油石化173-14348.6371.623.0-6.10.2600436.SH片仔引医药生物3118-131722.71015.2-707.5-11.65.3002594.SZ比亚迪汽车及其零部件218-131157.3172.4-984.9-3.5-3.2601111.SH中国国航航空机场2310-131259.9531.7-728.1-15.5-2.0000401.SZ冀东水泥建材

9、196-13752.1130.4-621.7-12.90.3601288.SH农业银行银行3623-131144.8470.1-674.7-3.94.9002127.SZ南极电商基础化工3623-132840.42319.6-520.8-8.38.0601166.SH兴业银行银行9986-134154.84499.9345.1-4.26.6300033.SZ同花顺计算机2210-12821.6496.1-325.50.9-1.9002230.SZ科大讯飞计算机2412-12683.5395.9-287.6-4.22.3002024.SZ苏宁云商商贸零售175-12725.774.5-651.2

10、-9.81.8603886.SH元祖股份食品饮料153-12342.2128.8-213.4-29.3-4.8002511.SZ中顺洁柔轻工制造197-12567.1254.2-312.91.42.9601888.SH中国国旅餐饮旅游10694-125121.25703.2582.05.0-2.8000596.SZ古井贡酒食品饮料3322-113193.52819.6-373.9-3.0-10.0300630.SZ普利制药医药生物3019-111280.7714.5-566.2-11.316.0603589.SH口子窖食品饮料3423-112385.11358.1-1027.0-13.4-8.

11、1000538.SZ云南白药医药生物188-10840.9374.5-466.4-8.85.7300628.SZ亿联网络通信2212-101055.6857.7-197.814.616.8600547.SH山东黄金有色金属3929-102038.11083.1-955.015.5-4.8603939.SH益丰药房医药生物3828-101436.51107.0-329.512.69.6002368.SZ太极股份计算机112-9543.134.3-508.8-2.54.5600305.SH恒顺醋业食品饮料123-9326.8119.9-206.9-26.11.6600332.SH白云山医药生物12

12、3-9234.53.3-231.2-14.41.4002223.SZ鱼跃医疗医药生物2819-9991.0365.6-625.4-12.3-0.8000975.SZ银泰资源有色金属156-9374.4248.2-126.3-1.1-0.1600585.SH海螺水泥建材4132-91558.01246.4-311.6-0.42.3600600.SH青岛啤酒食品饮料2314-9580.7108.0-472.7-1.8-3.9300365.SZ恒华科技计算机124-8791.6682.8-108.8-7.21.0002422.SZ科伦药业医药生物179-81100.8357.8-742.9-13.0

13、-6.1600340.SH华夏幸福房地产2820-82883.02891.68.6-13.99.5YTD22.5119.1156.447.457.110.4239.671.911.17.549.8107.960.574.019.820.16.323.6-7.46.427.16.452.931.1163.535.67.54.949.951.198.2102.153.112.187.350.4109.738.336.7-0.811.033.851.035.9-0.620.522.1资料来源：万得资讯，已经剔除限制 名单中的股票图表30: 3Q19主动偏股型基金重仓持有市值前50公司代码证券简称行业

14、2Q19持有家数3Q19持有市值（百万元）表现家数变化2Q193Q19市值变化3Q194Q19YTD600519.SH贵州茅台食品饮料3634407725471.431884.06412.616.9-0.3101.5601318.SH中国平安保险366345-2124528.021597.7-2930.3-0.9-0.360.5000858.SZ五粮液食品饮料270238-3221304.020866.7-437.310.0-4.2156.4000651.SZ格力电器家用电器223222-115817.314769.5-1047.87.20.467.0000568.SZ泸州老窖食品饮料1241

15、03-2111985.812178.1192.37.4-4.8107.9600036.SH招商银行银行1661791313930.511364.1-2566.5-0.83.448.3002475.SZ立讯精密电子111201905691.410808.05116.740.614.6196.1000661.SZ长春高新医药生物179189109527.310303.3775.916.75.1141.9600276.SH恒瑞医药医药生物1252311065996.610226.74230.122.28.099.7000333.SZ美的集团家用电器174152-2210485.59631.1-854

16、.3-1.54.849.8600048.SH保利地产房地产63125624602.87045.02442.212.19.137.1601012.SH隆基股份电气设备10811135674.26287.6613.413.5-12.165.7002142.SZ宁波银行银行6575104920.65920.2999.65.85.270.4601888.SH中国国旅餐饮旅游10694-125121.25703.2582.05.0-2.851.1002714.SZ牧原股份农林牧渔5263114585.85552.1966.320.046.7247.2600887.SH伊利股份食品饮料172105-678

17、298.15139.5-3158.6-14.6-3.322.5000002.SZ万科A房地产8179-24792.15117.3325.2-3.13.717.8600009.SH上海机场航空机场5049-15279.64883.7-395.9-4.0-5.350.3002415.SZ海康威视计算机4495511412.54877.83465.417.1-2.828.4600763.SH通策医疗医药生物636414896.94658.5-238.515.74.8123.4601166.SH兴业银行银行9986-134154.84499.9345.1-4.26.631.1000860.SZ顺鑫农业

18、食品饮料3230-23215.33921.5706.211.8-11.890.1600809.SH山西汾酒食品饮料323972689.53658.2968.713.28.2141.8600309.SH万华化学基础化工343952904.43500.5596.23.21.268.1300015.SZ爱尔眼科医药生物525422903.23439.9536.714.58.689.7600030.SH中信证券证券及其他115128132057.63381.81324.2-4.1-4.339.9600031.SH三一重工机械5973143318.83377.458.611.3-2.472.000200

19、7.SZ华兰生物医药生物292902712.43343.0630.612.510.572.2600438.SH通威股份农林牧渔7848-304479.73287.7-1192.1-9.4-0.457.1002044.SZ美年健康医药生物252722925.23183.8258.617.713.49.6000001.SZ平安银行银行4661152438.83179.0740.213.16.281.9300347.SZ泰格医药医药生物5975162324.33161.5837.221.25.8131.6002236.SZ大华股份计算机2037171763.12992.51229.418.9-10.

20、440.4002304.SZ洋河股份食品饮料4318-254094.52930.7-1163.9-14.4-2.610.4600340.SH华夏幸福房地产2820-82883.02891.68.6-13.99.522.1600690.SH青岛海尔家用电器3024-62924.82837.5-87.3-9.50.814.5000596.SZ古井贡酒食品饮料3322-113193.52819.6-373.9-3.0-10.098.2300144.SZ宋城演艺餐饮旅游293671516.92816.61299.720.73.234.7601601.SH中国太保保险424202571.42780.92

21、09.5-1.9-1.426.8300413.SZT夬乐购商贸零售2738111709.32724.71015.411.52.228.5600570.SH恒生电子计算机6863-52710.82703.8-7.08.5-0.188.3002271 .SZ东方雨虹建材3617-192695.02692.8-2.2-7.26.474.0601933.SH永辉超市商贸零售5734-235395.22678.4-2716.8-12.9-6.67.5603986.SH兆易创新电子2760331193.02558.51365.567.7-3.9129.0002008.SZ大族激光电子104636272.3

22、2506.52234.23.45.430.3300012.SZ华测检测综合3528-72649.92464.5-185.416.910.8117.4002127.SZ南极电商基础化工3623-132840.42319.6-520.8-8.38.052.9002410.SZ广联达计算机5954-52887.92310.3-577.77.9-5.364.0资料来源：万得资讯，已经剔除限制 名单中的股票图表3L3Q19主动偏股型基金重仓增持市值前50公司代码证券简称行业2Q19持有家数3Q19家数变化提2Q19市值（百万元）表现YTD3Q19市值变化3Q194Q19600519.SH贵州茅台食品饮料

23、3634407725471.431884.06412.616.9-0.3101.5002475.SZ立讯精密电子111201905691.410808.05116.740.614.6196.1600276.SH恒瑞医药医药生物1252311065996.610226.74230.122.28.099.7002415.SZ海康威视计算机4495511412.54877.83465.417.1-2.828.4600048.SH保利地产房地产63125624602.87045.02442.212.19.137.1002008.SZ大族激光电子104636272.32506.52234.23.45.4

24、30.3002241.SZ歌尔股份电子67771144.42193.32048.997.8-1.8162.5600183.SH生益科技电子7564994.41881.41787.065.7-10.5152.6603986.SH兆易创新电子2760331193.02558.51365.567.7-3.9129.0600030.SH中信证券证券及其他115128132057.63381.81324.2-4.1-4.339.9300144.SZ宋城演艺餐饮旅游293671516.92816.61299.720.73.234.7002236.SZ大华股份计算机2037171763.12992.5122

25、9.418.9-10.440.4002555.SZ三七互娱传媒互联网193415402.51552.61150.135.7-8.479.3600406.SH国电南瑞电气设备17258951.42038.31086.912.02.816.8002463.SZ沪电股份电子29345467.11553.61086.579.9-3.1247.3300413.SZ快乐购商贸零售2738111709.32724.71015.411.52.228.5002142.SZ宁波银行银行6575104920.65920.2999.65.85.270.4603160.SH汇顶科技电子2341181105.92077.

26、3971.447.1-11.8152.8600809.SH山西汾酒食品饮料323972689.53658.2968.713.28.2141.8002714.SZ牧原股份农林牧渔5263114585.85552.1966.320.046.7247.2600426.SH华鲁恒升基础化工71710530.51485.5955.110.6-2.536.9000977.SZ浪潮信息计算机133623326.11227.8901.87.7-8.656.1603799.SH华友钻业有色金属62721103.2986.2883.126.3-17.13.7300347.SZ泰格医药医药生物5975162324.

27、33161.5837.221.25.8131.6002624.SZ完美世界传媒互联网172710786.11604.3818.27.31.44.1300207.SZ欣旺达电子264115890.21686.7796.531.5-13.755.5000661.SZ长春高新医药生物179189109527.310303.3775.916.75.1141.9002036.SZ联创电子电子17617.2792.5775.355.2-1.3123.9002273.SZ水晶光电电子124239.6778.9769.365.9-8.1104.5600529.SH山东药玻医药生物283681487.22242

28、.4755.22.46.584.5002311.SZ海大集团农林牧渔3130-11456.02201.7745.61.31.243.0000001.SZ平安银行银行4661152438.83179.0740.213.16.281.9300601.SZ康泰生物医药生物264317911.61636.6725.142.010.5128.6000860.SZ顺鑫农业食品饮料3230-23215.33921.5706.211.8-11.890.1300595.SZ欧普康视医药生物182810490.71192.9702.239.6-1.0122.5600867.SH通化东宝医药生物112312474.

29、81159.6684.813.6-7.023.2600004.SH白云机场航空机场192891323.82008.5684.724.6-6.0111.6600703.SH三安光电电子72316262.1941.5679.327.1-3.128.1002007.SZ华兰生物医药生物292902712.43343.0630.612.510.572.2300136.SZ信维通信电子3181535.7658.1622.346.417.895.3300618.SZ寒锐钻业有色金属615962.3677.5615.248.5-22.20.9601012.SH隆基股份电气设备10811135674.2628

30、7.6613.413.5-12.165.7600309.SH万华化学基础化工343952904.43500.5596.23.21.268.1601966.SH玲珑轮胎基础化工7169556.21140.9584.819.91.756.5002078.SZ太阳纸业轻工制造374267.6852.0584.516.46.647.3601888.SH中国国旅餐饮旅游10694-125121.25703.2582.05.0-2.851.1300003.SZ乐普医疗医药生物17225964.31519.4555.18.97.032.5资料来源：万得资讯，已经剔除限制 名单中的股票图表32: 3Q19主动

31、偏股型基金重仓减持市值前50公司代码证券简称行业2Q19持有家数 3Q19家数变化2Q19市值（百万元） 3Q19表现市值变化3Q194Q19YTD600887.SH伊利股份食品饮料172105-678298.15139.5-3158.6-14.6-3.322.5601318.SH中国平安保险203366-2115877.324528.0-2930.316.60.260.5601933.SH永辉超市商贸零售2357-232751.65395.2-2716.819.4-18.07.5600036.SH招商银行银行118166139806.713930.5-2566.56.13.948.36011

32、55.SH新城控股房地产3432-301527.52058.2-2042.7-8.0-15.947.4300014.SZ亿纬锂能电子3483-421106.03248.0-1659.724.913.1119.1600438.SH通威股份农林牧渔4078-302704.04479.7-1192.116.9-8.557.1002304.SZ洋河股份食品饮料3843-252012.44094.5-1163.9-4.3-16.310.4601336.SH新华保险保险4539-162502.62299.7-1095.22.5-8.019.8000651.SZ格力电器家用电器104223-18803.31

33、5817.3-1047.816.56.967.0603589.SH口子窖食品饮料1834-111362.52385.1-1027.021.5-18.753.1002594.8Z比亚迪汽车及其零部件2121-131402.41157.3-984.9-5.2-6.9-7.4002157.SZ正邦科技农林牧渔5444-241897.31623.9-963.02.58.0239.6600547.8H山东黄金有色金属1739-10404.82038.1-955.032.510.550.4601233.SH桐昆股份基础化T1012-71224.51117.2-877.23.3-17.532.1002371

34、 .SZ北方华创电子3443-241270.91512.9-870.7-1.8-6.371.9000333.SZ美的集团家用电器55174-223962.110485.5-854.39.23.749.8002422.8Z科伦药业医药生物1617-8621.91100.8-742.93.4-16.920.5601111.SH中国国航航空机场1923-13985.81259.9-728.1-11.7-15.16.4600436.SH片仔鹿医药生物3431-132183.91722.7-707.50.8-7.623.6601288.SH农业银行银行2736-13724.11144.8-674.71.

35、01.76.4002614.SZ蒙发利家用电器85-21228.5722.7-673.2-21.9-33.5-31.6002024.SZ苏宇云商商贸零售1217-12683.0725.7-651.2-7.6-8.77.5300567.SZ精测电子机械1616-15539.9660.0-636.9-1.9-23.620.1002223.SZ鱼跃医疗医药生物1828-9817.0991.0-625.4-1.8-12.211.0000401.8Z冀东水泥建材1219-13213.0752.1-621.72.6-12.827.1600115.SH东方航空航空机场1210-5604.1642.9-619.5-9.7-17.78.6002410.SZ广联达计算机2659-51362.02887.9-577.711.13.064.0600029.SH南方航空航空机场1012-3921.51347.4-570.5-9.7-