全球金属展望报告.docx

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1、JPMorganGlobal Commodities ResearchMarch 2019Metals Outlook PresentationGlobal Commodities ResearchNatasha KanevaExecutive Director (1-212) 834-3175 JPMorgan Chase Bank NAGlobal Commodities ResearchNatasha KanevaExecutive Director (1-212) 834-3175 JPMorgan Chase Bank NAGregory ShearerVice President(

2、44-20) 7134-8161J.P. Morgan Securities plcMetals Commodities StrategySee the end pages of this presentation for important disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

3、interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.1Image sources: UC Rusal, World Gold Council, Glencore plc, Nornickel. Used with permission.Risks to our outlook skew bullish for base metals b

4、ut are more balanced for precious metals.Risks to the outlook: bullish base, balanced preciousWeaker USD (bullish base and precious) The main risk to our view is that as global growth stabilizes, the US dollar could weaken meaningfully, which could lead to residual commodities strength. Chinese Stim

5、ulus (bullish base)Our outlook for China had envisioned that the continued policy support would offset trade war drags, allowing GDP growth to stabilize slightly above 6% this year. With trade war tail risks fading, a key question is whether the policy stimulus will ultimately deliver larger boosts

6、to growth than expected. Similarly, if deleveraging efforts are rolled back, stimulus could have more immediate bullish feed-through. PBOC Benchmark Rate Cut (bullish base)Similar to the point above, a benchmark rate cut would considerably advance monetary stimulus, opening further upside for China-

7、linked assets. Cycle Extension (bullish base, mixed precious)If the recent dovish turns by central banks do indeed mean the cycle has longer to run and recession risks begin materially dropping this would be clearly bullish for growth-dependent base metals. While a lower risk of a recession would hu

8、rt safe haven demand for precious, the ultimate price impact would be more influenced by the Feds actions (see below). Fed Hawkish Rethink (bearish precious and base)Expectations have solidly shifted towards the Fed being more tolerant of above 2% inflation given the recent embrace of average inflat

9、ion targeting. However, if the Fed is not as dovish as expected in regards to inflation (i.e. continuing its current hiking cycle without clear signs of stronger inflation), this would clearly be bearish for precious metals as it would likely lead to some major repricing in rates.Source: J.P. Morgan

10、10CopperCopyright Glencore plc. Used with permission.11NO-11N 山 swa:dyloo11nos1J.WEHeadlines of copper supply disruptions have accelerated in recent weeks. In total, we have removed 165 kmt from our mine supply forecast as a result, yet our global copper mine production estimate for 2019 is running

11、only 83 kmt lower than our November 2018 estimate.Difference between JPM estimates and realized copper mine production Thousand mt200 100o-100-200-300-400-500-600-700Source: Company reports, Government and Industry data, USGS, Antaike, CRU, Wood Mackenzie, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research12On a cont

12、ained basis, Chinas copper scrap imports declined only 30 kmt last year. However, changes to scrap imports in China will likely continue to be an important factor for cathode demand this year given the full ban on category 7 scrap imports and the existing 10% tariff on scrap from the US.China copper

13、 scrap imports on contained basisThousand mt140120140120NO-1NWS 山ocdxoollno S14110080604020Source: China Customs,LMEZVQ.V zebi/m13In China, we see demand growing 2.7% this year (vs.5% last year) driven by strong political intentions to support the domestic economy. Infrastructure investment will con

14、tinue to be the main driver of copper demand through electrical grid and railway projects.China State Grid investmentBillion RMBChina Yangshan copper premium2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Source: China State Grid2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Source: China State Grid135Jan-

15、15 Jan-16Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Source: LME, SHFE, CMX, CRU, Metals Bulletin14Thousand mtDemand outside of China is not particularly strong, especially in Europe-a view reflected in continued low regional cathode premiums.Copper demand growth, 2019EPercent change, YoYSource: CRU, J.P. Morgan Commoditie

16、s Research15Inventories on global exchanges are still running below 5-year averages, but unlike 2018, the draws are taking place outside of China. We continue to estimate that the global copper market will register a slight deficit of about 140 kmt in 2019, which, for all purposes, should be conside

17、red a balanced market.Global copper inventories (exchange and bonded)Thousand mtChina copper inventories (SHFE and bonded)Thousand mt1,8001,8001,600Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSource: SHFE, CRU, Metals BulletinJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSource: LME, SHFE, CMX,

18、CRU, Metals Bulletin16Over the long term, behind nickel, EVs present the second greatest relative demand growth potential for copper. BEVs contain around 83 kg of copper, on average, or 60 kg more than a pure ICE vehicle.Copper intensity per EV charger type Kilograms4090BEVPHEV Full+Mild ICEHybrids3

19、5302520151036Level 2Level 3Source: International Copper Association, J.P. Morgan Commodities ResearchSource: CRU17Level 1Copper contained in light vehicles by powertrain KilogramsWe estimate that additional copper demand from EVs (including charging port infrastructure) will grow from around 130 kmt

20、 in 2017 to roughly 965 kmt by 2025. This 965 kmt represents around 4% of annual refined copper production.NO-1ON 8Td s 8Lm8工苗工 8工量8TU6ZL30NzTd s92.5 c-306Tq L 6TU2 87。 a8T0N 8T008LO- s 8Lgnv8Ln8Tun8工d48 m8Tq L8TUBCPercentSource: J.P. MorganSource: J.P. MorganAsia2,7982,8943,2283,2713,4893,2703,4963

21、,9404,2594,268China1,7141,5361,6901,8081,9061,9682,0102,0402,0682,076North America2,6122,7342,8832,6682,5452,8162,8762,8892,9382,803Central & South America7,5578,0038,3458,3488,6189,2599,4409,6849,98910,151Europe1,0201,0431,0761,1031,0891,0621,0721,0331,005969Eurasia1,3621,3361,3591,4311,5461,7351,7

22、661,7921,8371,848Middle East254280328341381374408435448449Africa2,0831,9831,9892,0582,3242,5752,9393,0483,3393,379Oceania9659529748468749881,005950921783Mine Production18,65119,22520,180如,06520,86522,07923,00223,77224,73624,649Refined Use201420152016201720182019E2020F2021F2022F2023FAsia13,52813,9881

23、4,58415,25515,80916,28316,62616,95817,24117,522China9,78810,16210,62011,15311,71112,02712,31212,46712,62212,767North America2,2082,1832,2242,1962,2552,2962,1962,3602,3882,416Central & South America582537470432441458443491507524Europe3,5963,6473,6683,6323,7213,7333,6393,8553,9043,949Eurasia6224474184

24、12424429427438441444Middle East734706757768788803790844864884Africa255244193185189195188208214221Oceania22141819191918191919Refined Use21,54821,76722,90022,33223,64624,21524,32725,17425,57725,979Global Balance201420152016201720182019E2020F2021F2022F2023F |NO-11N 山 swocdxoo_llnos1J.WESource: Company

25、reports, government and Industry data, USGS, Antaike, CRU, Wood Mackenzie, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Published: 11 March 2019.20AluminumCopyright UC Rusal. Used with permission.21Global closures of smelting capacityThousand mt00o6,o o o o o o 4 a00 o200o8T008T_m8Td48TUCZTOOzvmzTd4ZTUC9T009T_

26、m9TQ.V9TUEgToogv_mgTdgTUEPSource: CRU, Company reports, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research5 2,Source: Antaike, Metal Bulletin, China Coal Resources, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research22Since November, we have downgraded Chinas aluminum production by close to 1 mmt as price-driven closures now amount to

27、3.4 mmt/a since 1Q18. We now forecast Chinas aluminum production to reach 36.9 mmt in 2019, +1.9%yoy.China aluminum smelters, cash operating profitRMB/tCapacity growth outside of China has also underperformed our expectations, and we now see global aluminum supply growing at 3.3% yoy to 66.0 mmt in

28、2019 following on a 0.7% rise in 2018. In a highly unusual development, this growth will be driven by capacity additions outside of China.China and ex-China aluminum supply growthPercent40%NO-1NWS 山ocdxoollno S14135%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5% -10%ex-ChinaChinaoCM O04CO OCM寸 oo04OCM&co o6 OCMOT-CJco寸ID9Z

29、Source: Company reports, CRU, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research23Despite US trade actions, Chinese aluminum product exports surged 25% yoy to compensate for slow domestic demand growth. At present, we forecast Chinese primary aluminum consumption will likely grow by 5.3% in 2019, up from 4% growth la

30、st year, supported by more aggressive stimulus policies.Chinas exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum productsThousand mt600No-14,LNUJS 山 Hd voollno S_JONgmgTON9L，-m9L30NZL，-nZTONSTUPP8LSON24Based on our view that semis exports will continue to rise over the next few years as a means to sustain

31、Chinas aluminum demand growth, we see ex-China demand growth downshifting over that period and expect only 0.7% growth this year.Aluminum demand growth, 2019E Percent change, YoYRussiaEuropeChinaMiddle East-0.5%5.3%2.7%ncaGlobal-0.7%3.2%World exChinaSource: CRU, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research25In

32、2019, we expect a global aluminum deficit of 1.7 mmt, close to 2018 s deficit, as production growth slows further and demand recovers later in the year. If Chinese semis exports continue to rise at the rate seen in 2017 and 2018, then ex-China deficits will clearly become more manageable, stalling t

33、he draw in aluminum exchange inventories.No-KlNWSWocd MOOIHno S_I16Global reported aluminum inventories (LME, SHFE, CMX and China regional) Million mtSource: LME, CMX, SHFE, CRU, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research268T00 8T_m 8L,d4 OOTUC 1Too zvm zTd4 9T00 9Ln 9Td 9TU6 gToo gvm gTd 寸LJ。 寸 Lnp 寸工d 寸TUE

34、COTOO covm coEdq 8TU6 OJTOO evm ,CXJLudq eTuc 二，00Given that at current spot prices nearly 50% of global production is loss-making on a cash basis before accounting for premiums, we believe the balance of risk from a longterm cost support level seems to be skewed to prices finding a cost support bot

35、tom soon.Global aluminum cost curve, 1Q2019Y-axis: US$/mt; X-axis: cumulative global production in KMTAluminum long-term cost support levels and prices US$/mt$3,000$3,000$2,600$2,200$1,800$1,400$1,000010,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000Source: Wood Mackenzie, J.P. Morgan Commodities Res

36、earch272,8002,5002,2001,9001,6001,3001,00070075th 50th Nominal price8目9。、寸目CM。、866 L966 L寸66L766 L066 L886 L986 L寸86LSource: Wood Mackenzie, J.P. Morgan Commodities ResearchFor aluminum, the EV story is less about electrification and more about light-weighting of vehicles in general. We see the pote

37、ntial for aluminum demand from light vehicles to grow by more than 6 mint between 2016 and 2025, reaching nearly 20 mmt by the middle of the next decade.250Aluminum content per light vehicle Kilograms20162025Source: Ducker Worldwide, CRU, J.P. Morgan Commodities ResearchAluminum contained in light vehicles (LHS: Thousand mt, RHS: Percent)28Primary aluminum supply and demand balance, thousand metric tonnesI201420152016201720182019E2020F2021F2022F2023FRefined Production54,22757,05859,00463,49063,91266,00169,40671,79573,751