全球-金属与采矿业-金属季报:应谨慎对待Q2金属估值拉伸但Q3全球经济增长将重新上行.docx
《全球-金属与采矿业-金属季报:应谨慎对待Q2金属估值拉伸但Q3全球经济增长将重新上行.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《全球-金属与采矿业-金属季报:应谨慎对待Q2金属估值拉伸但Q3全球经济增长将重新上行.docx(64页珍藏版)》请在淘文阁 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。
1、Global Commodities Research11 March 2019Global Commodities ResearchNatasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 natasha.kanevajpmorgan JPMorgan Chase Bank NAGregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 gregory.c.shearerjpmorgan J.P. Morgan Securities plcGlobal FX Strategy Thomas Anthonj AC (44-20) 7742-7850 thomas.e.ant
2、honjjpmorgan J.P. Morgan Securities plc Ladislav Jankovic AC (1-212) 834-9618 ladislav.jankovicjpmchase J.P. Morgan Securities LLCGlobal Quantitative and Derivatives StrategyThomas J Murphy, PhD AC (1-212) 270-7377thomas.x.murphyjpmchase J.P. Morgan Securities LLCJ. P MorganCorrected Note (See paqe
3、51 for details)Metals QuarterlyStretched valuations warrant caution on metals into 2Q but firmer global growth should reopen upside in 3QHaving risen 11% year-to-date, industrial metals have shrugged off weakness in the global growth cycle (including a new low for manufacturing PMIs) and instead are
4、 already pricing in a full rebound in macro data. More specifically, at current spot levels, metals are trading at a 20% premium to the current global PMI of 50.6. Put differently, metals are already anticipating a rebound in the global manufacturing PMI to close to 53一a high hurdle. While we hold t
5、he view that global growth will stabilize and lift by midyear, we believe the base metals markets are now already pre-emptively pricing in the best possible outcome. In base metals, stretched valuations at present keep us bearish vs spot levels into 2Q19 but a stabilized global and Chinese economy l
6、ater in the year reopens upside for metals in 3Q18. We still see dark macro clouds on the 2020 horizon, however, and continue to call for industrial-linked metals to sell off hard into year-end. If we are correct and accommodative monetary policy and looser financial conditions manage to stabilize a
7、nd then lift global growth by early-2Q, we expect bond yields to move decisively higher. The potential for higher US yields and their pass-through impact on the dollar (which tends to inflect higher when the bond market starts to anticipate further Fed hikes), could likely weigh on precious metals i
8、n the coining months. Our forecast calls for lower spot prices in 2Q. However, we maintain our longer-term 2H19 bullish outlook and continue to favor precious metals on their unique late-cycle characteristics. In terms of our price forecasts, in base metals our 2019 price upgrades range between 4% i
9、n nickel to 2% in copper and zinc. Aluminum, the only metal that didnt reach our price target in IQ, stands out as the single downgrade (-3%). We leave our 2020 price forecast unchanged. In precious metals, at this juncture, we opt not to make any major changes to the price trajectory for gold, silv
10、er and platinum, continuing to see 2H19 upside. In palladium, we now see some more intra-quarter volatility over 2Q19 and 3Q19 but retain a view that prices will ultimately retrace into year-end.See page 51 for analyst certification and important disclosures. jpmorganmarkets Copper supply and demand
11、 balance, thousand metric tonnes201420152016201720182019E2020F2021F 2022F2023FMine Production18,65119,22520,18020,06520,604growth2.4%3.1%5.0%-0.6%2.7%Refined Production21,81822,16722,73722,95023,564growth5.5%1.6%2.6%0.9%2.7%Refined Use21,54821,76722,33222,90023,646growth3.8%1.0%2.6%2.5%3.3%Balance27
12、040040551-82Source: Company reports, Government and Industry data, USGS, Antaike, CRU, Wood Mackenzie, J.P. Morgan Commodities ResearchCopper balance by region, thousand metric tonnesGlobal Balance201420152016201720182019E2020F2021F 2022F2023FMine Production201420152016201720182019E2020F2021F2022F20
13、23FAsia2,7982,8943,2283,2713,4893,2703,4963,9404,2594,268China1,7141,5361,6901,8081,9061,9682,0102,0402,0682,076North America2,6122,7342,8832,6682,5452,8162,8762,8892,9382,803Central & South America7,5578,0038,3458,3488,6189,2599,4409,6849,98910,151Europe1,0201,0431,0761,1031,0891,0621,0721,0331,005
14、969Eurasia1,3621,3361,3591,4311,5461,7351,7661,7921,8371,848Middle East254280328341381374408435448449Africa2,0831,9831,9892,0582,3242,5752,9393,0483,3393,379Oceania9659529748468749881,005950921783Mine Production18,65119,22520,18020,06520,86522,07923,00223,77224,73624,649Refined Use201420152016201720
15、182019E2020F2021F2022F2023FAsia13,52813,98814,58415,25515,80916,28316,62616,95817,24117,522China9,78810,16210,62011,15311,71112,02712,31212,46712,62212,767North America2,2082,1832,2242,1962,2552,2962,1962,3602,3882,416Central & South America582537470432441458443491507524Europe3,5963,6473,6683,6323,7
16、213,7333,6393,8553,9043,949Eurasia622447418412424429427438441444Middle East734706757768788803790844864884Africa255244193185189195188208214221Oceania22141819191918191919Refined Use21,54821,76722,90023,64622,33224,21524,32725,17425,57725,979Source: Company reports, Government and Industry data, USGS,
17、Antaike, CRU, Wood Mackenzie, J.P. Morgan Commodities ResearchRefined ProductionRefined Use21,81822,16722,73722,95023,56424,07324,71225,30625,64125,91821,54821,76722,33222,90023,64624,21524,32725,17425,57725,979Balance27040040551-82-14238513264-61Alternative scenarios to copper base-case viewRisk bi
18、asScenariosForecast range under risk scenario |Bearish:a) Chinese demand slows markedly on the back of economic$4,887/t for 2019Bullishmoderation and less metals intensive growth; b) Global economic growth momentum is not maintained and begins to underperform expectations; c) mining disruptions come
19、 in less- than-expected in 2019 adding to already strong mine production growth; d) Fed turns more hawkish and dollar strengthens; e) oil declines rapidly from current $65/bbl level.Bullish:a) Strong Chinese demand is maintained through 2019 with metals intensity surprising to the upside; b) global
20、economic growth outperforms expectations, providing an even more supportive environment for commodities; c) mine disruptions in Africa escalate further in 2019; d) US$ weakens meaningfully.$7,330/t for 2019Source: J.P. Morgan Commodities ResearchAluminum-lower Chinese production growth to keep marke
21、t in deficit The most constructive development of last year continues into 2019 as the massive downgrade of Chinese primary aluminum production persists. Capacity growth ex-China has also underperformed our expectations. Since last November we have removed 1.1 mmt of global aluminum supply in 2019.
22、Chinese demand will likely grow at 5.3% in 2019, driven by stimulus policies and export markets. Chinese exports should crowd out primary demand ex-China. In 2019 we expect a global deficit of 1.7 mmt as production growth slows further and demand recovers later in the year.Since November we have dow
23、ngraded Chinas aluminum production by close to 1 mmtThe most constructive development last year was the massive downgrade of Chinese primary aluminum production. In our 2018 Annual Outlook we forecasted Chinese production would average 37.67 mmt in 2018, however the actual figure realized 1.43 mmt l
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