石油与天然气基准点：评级调整.docx

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1、FOCUSEquity Research19 August2019INDUSTRY UPDATEEuropean Integrated Oil & RefiningPOSITIVEUnchangedFor a full list of our ratings, price target and earnings changesinthis report, please see table on page 2.European Integrated Oil & RefiningLydia Rainforth, CFA +44(0)20 3134 6669 Barclays, UKJoshua S

2、tone+44 (0)20 3134 6694 Barclays, UKDanni Li+44 (0)20 3134 5636 Barclays, UKRamachandra Kamath +91 (0)22 61752308 Barclays, UKU.S. Integrated Oil & E&PJeanine Wai + 1 212 526 3557 BCI, USEli Bauman, CFA + 1 212 526 6972 BCI, USMatthew Lee + 1 212 526 8646 BCI, USStrongest1Chevron (OW)Galp (OW)Equino

3、r (OW)ExxonConocoTotalIndustrial performancez(EW)(OW)(OW)quartile3Eni (UW)OMV (EW)BP (OW)Weeikest4Repsol (UW)Shell (EW)12344* BARC1AYSOil & Gas BenchmarksRecalibrate ratings; initiate on US MajorsThis report is our annual assessment of the operational and financial performance of the integrated comp

4、anies over a 25-year history. Hallows us to align companies to differing quartiles of performance and assess whether they are appropriately valued. The most significant outcome from our analysis is that Total becomes our new Top Pick in Europe and we cut Shell to Equal Weight (new PT of 31/sh). We a

5、lso downgrade Repsol to UW (new PT of EURI 6/sh), while in the USJn separate reports outtoday, we have/n/t/ated coverage on a numberofstocksincluding Chevron (OWZ PT $145/sh)z Exxon (EWZ PT $73/sh) and Conoco (OWZ PT $79/sh). Best industrial positioning for 20 years: Returns are fast approaching 10%

6、, cash breakevens falling towards $50/blz and yet the sector has underperformed the widermarketby 11% YTD. EPS estimates appear at risk in the near-termz butwe expect positive momentum to return in 2020 and see a potential re-rating from the lifting ofanyconcernsassociated with capital disciplineand

7、 sustainability. We downgrade RDS to EW and REP to UW: Both companies have fallen from third to fourth quartile industrially. This leaves REP with a valuation quartile higher than industrial ranking and RDS with a valuation matching its ranking. Analysis supports OW ratings on BPZ CVX, COP, EQNR, GA

8、LP and TOT: These stocksoffera valuation discountto industrial performance. ESG a growing consideration: To reflect increased investor focus on sustainability, weadd ESG metrics to our bench marking processwitha 10% weighting.Industrial performance vs. Valuation - see catalysts on page 7-8._ Valuati

9、on Expensive rChe 叩quartileSource: Barclays Research. Stocks nearer the top right screen as better value than those nearer the bottom left.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be

10、 aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity ofthis report. Investors should considerthisreportasonly a singlefactorin making theirinvestmentdecision.This research report has been prepared in whole orin part by equity research analysts based outside the US w

11、ho are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGON PAGE 100.2020 Benchmarks SummaryMajorsUnitsBPCVXCOPXOMShellTotalIndustrial Performance Benchmark Weighted average of corporate, upstream and downstream. AIncludes chemic

12、als.人人Carbon dioxide data for Exxon based on 2017.quartile312242Valuation Benchmarkquartile43 44Downstream benchmarksAquartile121MixProfitabilityCapital spendingRoACEChange in RoACE%, 19-22%19-2012.712.50.028.528.320.716.89.1-13.414.228.92.8-0.2-4.820.6Sustainability benchmarkInvestmentCarbonTransit

13、ionSafetyCapexonlowcarbon business Carboncapitalempintensity Changein intensity Proportion ofgas production Recoradable injuries rate1244124.00.00.00.07.77.90.30.30.50.50.40.4-10.36.56.52.0-0.141.139.733.739.849.543.21.00.60.81.00.90.9%, 19-22, aveMtCO2eq/CE, 18AA% 18 vs 17%, 20permn hours, 18EV:DAC

14、Fx, 205.27.44.59.3Equity FCF yield%, 2010.48.010.03.09.912.0Dividend yield + Buyback yield%9.06.08.05.09.78.9Price : NAVX0.710.880.720.920.760.67Corporate benchmarksquartile322341ProfitabilityRoACE%, 2010.09.512.98.39.711.9Change in RoACE19-201.51.71.32.42.12.3BreakevenCash breakeven oil price$/blz

15、20504536785444Change in breakeven19-20(6)(4)(3)(3)|(7)GrowthEarnings growth19-20, %17.318.27.545.227.027.3DividendDividend growth% pa 19-22 ave.2.05.05.05.01.74.8Financing.Net debt: capital%, 20.26.09.213.418.922.119.2Upstream benchmarksquartile3 112432MixCapital spending%, 19-2285.086.599.474.158.6

16、80.0ProfitabilityRoACE%, 208.110.316.18.28.68.7Change in RoACE19-201.11.8-0.22.01.12.2Cash flow per bl$/boez 2018.834.223.218.920.420.9ValuePV-10 value per boe$/boe, 186.39.98.25.98.56.6Asset lifeProven reserves lifeyrsz 1814.51111.310.916.88.311.7GrowthProduction growth19-22, % ave2.10.41.05.81.01.

17、1Re-investment efficiencyReserve replacement ratio%, 16-1811813527707598Full cycle costs$/boe 14-18 ave12.718.433.916.325.117.8KeyANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S):1st quartile2nd quartile3rd quartile4th quartileWe, Lydia Rainforth, CFA, Joshua Stone and Jeanine Wai, hereby certify (1) thatthe views expre

18、ssed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thi

19、s research report.IMPORTANT DISCLOSURESBarclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and each individually, Barclays). All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date

20、atthe top ofthe report reflects the local time where the report was produced and may differ from the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject ofthis research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to or alt

21、ernatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor； New York, NY 10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firms total revenues, a porti

22、on ofwhich is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues ofthe Markets business and the potential interest ofthe firms investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outsidethe US by affiliates ofBarclay

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24、c appearances and trading securities held by a research analysts account.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting payment or reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such vi

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26、ays Research, whetherasa result ofdiffering time horizons, methodologies, orotherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to . In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: .Primary

27、 Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)Eni (ENI.MI, 14-Aug-2019z EUR 13.10), Underweight/Positive, CD/CE/D/J/K/L/M/NEquinor (EQNR.OL, 14-Aug-2019, NOK 147.95), Overweight/Positive, CD/CE/D/E/J/K/L/M/NRepsol (REP.MC, 14-Aug-2019z EUR 12.70), Underweight/Positive, J/K/M/NRoyal Dutch Shell A (RDSa.L, 14-Aug-2019

28、, GBP 23.45), Equal Weight/Positive, A/CE/D/E/J/K/L/M/NRoyal Dutch Shell B (RDSb.L, 14-Aug-2019z GBP 23.33), Equal Weight/Positive, A/CE/D/E/J/K/L/M/NTotal (TOTF.PA, 14-Aug-2019, EUR 43.64), Overweight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/E/J/K/L/M/NMaterially Mentioned Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)BP (BP.L, 14-Aug-2

29、019, GBP 4.98), Overweight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/GE/J/K/L/M/NChevron Corporation (CVX, 14-Aug-2019, USD 117.74), Overweight/Positive, CD/CE/D/GE/J/K/L/M/NConocoPhillips (COPZ 14-Aug-2019z USD 51.78), Overweight/Positive, CD/CE/D/J/K/L/M/NExxon Mobil Corporation (XOM, 14-Aug-2019, USD 67.65), Equal Wei

30、ght/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/E/J/K/L/M/NGalp Energia (GALP.LS, 14-Aug-2019z EUR 12.68)z Overweight/Positive, CD/D/J/K/L/MOMV (OMVV.VI, 14-Aug-2019z EUR 44.04), Equal Weight/Positive, A/CD/D/J/K/L/M/NOther Material ConflictsThe supervisory analyst who reviewed and approved this research report has a long

31、position in thecommon stock/ADRs of BP (BP/NYSE), Chevron Corp (CVX/NYSE), Exxon Mobil (XOM/NYSE).Prices are sourced from Refinitiv as ofthe last available closing price in the relevant trading market, unless another time and source is indicated.Disclosure Legend:A: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affil

32、iate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities ofthe issuer in the previous 12months.B: An employee or non-executive director of Barclays PLC is a director of this issuer.CD: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker in debt securities issued

33、by this issuer.CE: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker in equity securities issued by this issuer.IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUEDBarclays Bank PLCand/oran affiliate has received compensation forinvestment banking servicesfrom this issuer in the past 12 months.D: Barclays Bank PLC

34、 and/oran affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the next 3 months.FA: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owns 1% or more of a class of equity securities of this issuer, as calculated in accordance with US

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36、 of equity securities ofthis issuer, as calculated in accordance with EU regulations.GD: One of the analysts on thefundamental credit coverage team (ora member of his or her household) has a financial interest in the debt or equity securities ofthis issuer.GE: One of the analysts on thefundamental e

37、quity coverage team (or a memberof his or her household) has a financial interest in the debt or equity securities ofthis issuer.H: This issuer beneficially owns more than 5% of any class of common equity securities of Barclays PLC.I: Barclays Bank PLCand/oran affiliate is party to an agreement with

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39、on-investment banking related compensation (including compensation for brokerage services, if applicable) from this issuer within the past 12 months.L: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.M:This issueris, orduri

40、ng the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) ofBarclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.N: This issuer is, orduring the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (non-securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.O:

41、 Not in use.P: A partner, directororofficerof Barclays Capital Canada Inc. has, during the preceding 12 months, provided services to the subject company for remuneration, otherthan normal course investment advisory or trade execution services.Q: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a Corporate B

42、roker to this issuer.R: Barclays Capital Canada Inc. and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the past 12 months.S: This issuer is a Corporate Broker to Barclays PLC.T: Barclays Bank PLC and/oran affiliate is providing equity advisory services

43、 to this issuer.U:The equity securities ofthis Canadian issuer include subordinate voting restricted shares.V:The equity securities ofthis Canadian issuer include non-voting restricted shares.Risk Disclosure(s)Master limited partnerships (MLPs) are pass-through entities structured as publicly listed

44、 partnerships. For tax purposes, distributions to MLP unit holders may be treated as a return of principal. Investors should consulttheirown tax advisors before investing in MLP units.Guide to the Barclays Fundamental Equity Research Rating System:Ourcoverage analysts use a relative rating system in

45、 which they rate stocks as Overweight, Equal Weight or Underweight (see definitions below) relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team ofanalysts that are deemed to be in the same industry (the industry coverage universe).In addition to the stock rating, we provide industry views wh

46、ich rate the outlook for the industry coverage universe as Positive, Neutral or Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is notthe equivalent of our rating system. Investors should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of

47、all ratingsand not infer its contents from ratingsalone.Stock RatingOverweight-The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe overa 12-month investment horizon.Equal Weight-Thestockisexpected to perform in line with the unweighted expected tot