日本物流业：三巨头的第三季度业绩更新.docx

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1、J. R MorganAsia Pacific Equity Research12 February 2019Logistics: Big Threes 3QResults UpdatePoised For Rerating On Six- To 12-Month HorizonJapan Equity Research Transportation, Real Estate, REIT Ryota Himeno AC(81-3) 6736-8639ryota.himenojpmorgan Bloomberg JPMA RHIMENO JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.

2、, Ltd.Japan Equity Research Transportation, Real Estate, REIT Ryota Himeno AC(81-3) 6736-8639ryota.himenojpmorgan Bloomberg JPMA RHIMENO JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.Amid an uncertain market environment, our recommended investment strategy for the transport sector in 2019 comprises: 1) a barbe

3、ll strategyn combining marine transport with railways and 2) a company-specific approach to logistics. Our order of preference among subsectors is: railways marine transport logistics airlines. We expect logistics companies to see rising profits as service prices continue to correct upward, but our

4、share price outlook is tempered by:) waning upward momentum in service pricing, 2) risk of slower freight movement following the upcoming consumption-tax hike, and 3) a potential reaction to 2018s share price gains. This has us advising a company-specific approach to the subsector and recommending N

5、ippon Express, Hitachi Transport System, and Sankyu-all Overweight-as our top picks in view of company-specific catalysts for the first two and a longer-term growth story for the third. Nippon Express一bullish despite likely decline in FY2019 profits: Investors are concerned about 1) risk of a slowdo

6、wn in the air freight business and 2) higher costs in FY2020 (equal pay for equal work implementation, system and other strategic expenditures). We think the former is not fully priced in and accordingly apply a more conservative valuation than previously. We expect the latter to be priced in with t

7、he February 22 announcement of the new mediumterm business plan. We expect equal pay for equal work to add 10 billion in costs and result in profits declining YoY in FY2020. However, we also expect the new medium-term plan to target higher profit margins and an increase in RoE driven by asset sales

8、and shareholder returns and accordingly look for investors to assess it from a longer-term perspective. Sankyu-poised for stable growth: Our bullishness reflects: 1) ongoing demand for plant engineering and maintenance driven by superannuation, 2) rising profit margins (as shorter construction times

9、 and improved operating efficiency drive down CoGS and also as the company avoids unprofitable customers and raises prices), and 3) Sankyus leveraging of its strong staff mobilization capabilities to broaden customer domains and expand execution capabilities. While we see a shortage of near-term cat

10、alysts in expectation of profits falling sharply in IQ FY2019 as the company comes off a major year for shutdown maintenance in 2018, we look for profits to accelerate from 2Q as comps ease and new construction orders come into play. With the long-term growth scenario intact and the near-term earnin

11、gs cycle poised to bottom, we think the shares have corrected enough to make them attractive.Equity Ratings and Price TargetsSource: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates, n/c = no change.AII prices as of 08 Feb 19.Mkt CapRai ingCompanyTicker( bn)Price ()CurPrevPrice TargetCur End Prev EndDateDateNippon

12、Express (9062)9062 JT642,716,4400Wn/cSANKYU (9065)9065 JT326,085,000OWn/cHitachi Transport System (9086)9086 JT343.163,070OWn/c7,630Dec-198,350n/c7,000Dec-19n/cn/c3,750Dec-193,500n/cSee page 35 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does

13、 and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment de

14、cision. jpmorganmarkets Figure 10: Nippon Express: Historical P/EX、Figure 10: Nippon Express: Historical P/EX、Figure 11: Nippon Express: Historical P/BX0.5j_更亦Source: Bloomberg, J.P. MorganSource: Bloomberg, J.P. MorganFigure 12: Nippon Express: Monthly trends (YoY change)18/118/218/318/418/518/618/

15、718/818/918/1018/1118/12Segment incomeRail forwarding-0.7%-3.6%-0.6%-1.9%3.9%-2.0%-30.5%-22.4%-28.8%-6.3%-0.6%-2.7%Non-charter trucking4.2%1.9%1.1%6.3%9.7%3.7%9.4%7.2%2.8%14.5%9.3%4.5%Charter trucking2.7%1.2%-1.2%0.4%3.0%0.5%4.1%4.7%2.5%7.2%2.8%-0.5%Trucking total3.0%1.4%-0.6%1.7%4.5%1.2%5.3%5.3%2.6

16、%8.9%4.3%0.7%Marine transport11.5%10.3%7.4%8.8%11.3%10.0%4.5%14.0%2.7%17.7%6.4%4.5%Warehousing2.6%3.4%1.1%2.1%3.5%1.6%3.1%3.4%1.5%4.9%5.5%3.5%Air transport (excluding travel)28.6%35.3%42.0%31.8%23.4%25.7%28.2%28.1%23.2%40.9%35.4%13.3%Heavy haulage-13.2%43%-12.6%-1.0%10.0%7.4%17.7%-2.7%6.5%14.4%-0.3%

17、-9.3%In-factory-2.3%-1.3%-1.4%-3.0%8.5%6.8%6.5%6.3%0.6%6.3%4.7%0.5%Others1.7%1.5%-0.1%6.4%8.6%2.9%4.4%8.8%9.9%9.2%13.1%1.4%Total5.8%6.3%5.2%6.6%9.0%6.5%6.0%7.3%3.9%13.3%9.9%2.7%Operating expensesPersonnel costs-0.1%0.0%-3.0%0.0%0.1%2.9%2.2%1.4%0.8%0.1%0.4%0.3%Operational personnel costs-0.6%-0.3%-1.

18、9%-0.7%-0.2%1.8%0.7%0.6%-0.2%-1.6%0.3%-0.4%Administrative personnel costs Transportation costs0.4%0.4%-3.9%0.7%0.4%3.8%3.5%2.1%1.7%1.6%0.5%0.9%30.8%35.2%42.1%32.5%26.3%39.3%12.8%23.3%11.3%38.6%31.7%16.5%Railway-0.1%-3.1%-0.1%0.1%4.7%-2.2%-38.9%-31.8%-36.1%-8.5%-1.1%-2.9%Marine transportation23.0%18.

19、1%7.1%19.3%20.7%12.5%8.9%19.9%12.5%27.0%11.3%12.9%Air transportation70.2%86.7%111.6%71.4%45.6%102.3%69.9%79.0%55.3%86.9%69.1%32.1%Vehicle rental and2.3%3.4%1.7%3.9%9.3%4.5%8.1%7.4%4.6%10.8%9.6%0.9%subcontracting costsVehicle rental costs5.3%3.9%2.7%3.5%7.1%3.7%8.9%8.7%5.3%12.5%6.5%1.9%Subcontracting

20、 costs0.5%3.2%1.4%4.8%10.1%4.3%6.6%5.6%3.4%9.2%11.8%-0.3%Operational personnel dispatching costs Depreciation costs-8.5%-4.1%-8.3%-6.3%40.2%31.9%30.4%32.0%21.1%15.6%15.8%7.1%7.1%5.6%14.1%14.4%13.6%13.5%13.5%12.5%3.0%10.3%8.8%8.0%Facility utilization costs1.7%1.8%11.3%0.6%2.4%1.7%3.0%2.9%4.0%3.3%0.3%

21、1.6%Total4.9%5.9%6.5%.Source: Company data10Nippon Express: Segment PLYmillion0000000000007256o o o o o o o o o o0 6 2 0 4 ucT erf ccf 4o o o o 2 84 1o 80 -9.00975,68,53.o o o o o o o o o oOQ 7 4 cef ccT s4 14oooooooo oooooooo 3405207977,68,55t4 2erf4 1 dio00-8,o o o o oo o o o o0 17 5 200o77,68,54,

22、4 2 3 3o o o 2 8 0 411,-8,99665564691854912 4 6 4 1 8 3 17 5 42 26 2O 74 142915820764 3 6 5 7 3 1 8 640670149 J J J ) 5 ,7 9 8 4 2 125 4 33 5 8 1 O a Q8 49 &87189980790857674 no AD ro 4 4 4 45 4 37 48 63 839Operating profitLogisticsJapanUSEUEast AsiaSouth East Asia, Oceania Transportation security H

23、eavy haulage andconstructionLogistics supportElimination16/317/318/319/3 CE19/3 E20/3 E21/3 ESales1,909,1051,864,3011,995,3172,150,0002,153,4002,197,2002,235,800Logistics1,522,9611,490,9231,579,1951,694,1001,697,7001,744,0001,779,800Japan1,158,3901,155,7131,188,8801,262,4001,265,7001,293,9001,313,60

24、0US94,69783,83191,396100,000100,000106,000111,300EU84,57979,28696,048116,700116,700119,000122,600East Asia115,068101,746117,487123,500123,800128,100132,400South East Asia, Oceania70,22570,34385,38291t50091,50097,00099,900Transportation security53,80354,78171,83772,60072,60073,20073,800Heavy haulage

25、andconstruction51,39546,98547,60247,00047,00047,00047,000Logistics support410,906403,994443,264488,300488,300488,300493,200Elimination-129,962-132,381-146,582-152,000-152,200-155,300-158,000yoy-2.3%7.0%7.8%7.9%2.0%1.8%Logistics-2.1%5.9%7.3%7.5%2.7%2.1%Japan-0.2%2.9%6.2%6.5%2.2%1.5%US-11.5%9.0%9.4%9.

26、4%6.0%5.0%EU-6.3%21.1%21.5%21.5%2.0%3.0%East Asia-11.6%15.5%5.1%5.4%3.5%3.4%South East Asia, Oceania-0.2%21.4%7.2%7.2%6.0%3.0%Transportation security-1.8%31.1%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%Heavy haulage andconstruction-8.6%1.3%-1.3%-1.3%0.0%0.0%Logistics support-1.7%9.7%10.2%10.2%0.0%1.0%Source: Company data, J.P

27、. Morgan estimates%, of sales2.9%3.1%3.5%3.6%3.6%3.5%3.5%Logistics3.1%3.3%3.8%4.0%4.0%3.9%4.1%Japan3.2%3.3%3.8%4.3%4.3%4.2%4.3%US5.4%5.7%4.9%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%EU1.8%2.6%4.3%1.9%1.9%2.5%2.9%East Asia1.5%1.1%1.6%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%South East Asia, Oceania2.2%3.5%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%Transportation security

28、Heavy haulage and2.9%1.8%2.9%1.2%1.2%1.0%0.5%construction7.2%8.3%8.5%8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%Logistics support2.0%2.5%2.6%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%11Figure 13: Nippon Express: Consolidated PL millionSource: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates Note: Simple cash flow = Net Income + Depreciation14/315/316/317/318/319/3

29、 E20/3 E21/3 ESales1,752,4681,924,9291,909,1051,864,3011,995,3172,153,4002,197,2002,235,800(YoY)8.6%9.8%-0.8%-2.3%7.0%7.9%2.0%1.8%Cost of sales1,628,0371,783,6211,755,4891,702,0061,817,2761,959,8002,002,6002,035,900(CoGS ratio)92.9%92.7%92.0%91.3%91.1%91.0%91.1%91.1%Gross Profits124,431141,308153,61

30、6162,295178,041193,600194,600199,900(YoY)15.5%13.6%8.7%5.6%9.7%8.7%0.5%2.7%(Gross margin)7.1%7.3%8.0%8.7%8.9%9.0%8.9%8.9%SG&A expenses83,56490,49798,837104,863107,771116,300118,700120,800(YoY)12.2%8.3%9.2%6.1%2.8%7.9%2.1%1.8%(CoGS ratio)4.8%4.7%5.2%5.6%5.4%5.4%5.4%5.4%Operating Profits40,86550,81154

31、,77857,43170,26977,30075,90079,100(YoY)23.1%24.3%7.8%4.8%22.4%10.0%-1.8%4.2%(Operating margin)2.3%2.6%2.9%3.1%3.5%3.6%3.5%3.5%Non operating income14,64714,48313,55012,8339,77911,30011,30011,300Dividends & Interests received3,4023,1823,7433,1883,9564,0004,0004,000Equity method profits7967448351,73365

32、4800800800Others10,44910,5578,9727,9125,1696,5006,5006,500Non operating costs5,3575,7315,9346,4585,6535,8005,8006,200Interest paid3,1512,8822,7913,4203,2393,3003,3003,700Equity method losses00000000Others2,2062,8493,1433,0382,4142,5002,5002,500Recurring Profit50,15559,56362,39463,80674,39582,80081,4

33、0084,200(YoY)20.9%18.8%4.8%2.3%16.6%11.3%-1.7%3.4%(Recurring margin)2.9%3.1%3.3%3.4%3.7%3.8%3.7%3.8%Extraordinary profits11,4108,7455,4698,39224,3125,0005,0005,000Extraordinary losses14,44719,3298,66811,36561,5515,0005,0005,000Pre-tax Profit47,11848,97959,19560,83337,15582,80081,40084,200Tax20,18222

34、,91722,91023,53929,29331,50031,00032,100Minority Interest591-3196258401,3291,3001,3001,300Net Profits26,34626,38235,65936,4546,53450,00049,10050,800(YoY)10.5%0.1%35.2%2.2%-82.1%665.2%-1.8%3.5%(Net margin)1.5%1.4%1.9%2.0%0.3%2.3%2.2%2.3%Shares o/s at term end (mn)102.6100.2100.196.096.096.096.096.0DP

35、S ()100100110110120145150160Payout ratio38.9%38.4%30.9%29.3%176.5%27.9%29.9%31.9%Dividends10,25810,13611,01310,68711,53013,93214,70016,200EPS ()256.8263.4356.3379.768.1520.8511.4529.1CFPS ()716.0772.6869.1937.4577.71,021.81,045.71,086.4BPS ()4,833.85,310.65,217.75,586.55,519.15,791.26,149.56,509.9Ca

36、pex42,15048,80950,21974,13497,10890,00080,00080,000Depreciation47,10851,00551,33353,55348,93448,10051,30053,500Simple cash flow73,45477,38786,99290,00755,46898,100100,400104,300EBITDA87,973101,816106,111110,984119,203125,400127,200132,600(YoY)10.9%15.7%4.2%4.6%7.4%5.2%1.4%4.2%(EBITDA margin)5.0%5.3%

37、5.6%6.0%6.0%5.8%5.8%5.9%12Nippon Express: Consolidated BSmillionSource: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates14/315/316/317/318/319/3 E20/3 E21/3 ETotal current Assets647,069719,313682,316705,994730,016745,400760,300775,600Cash&Marketable securities186,297207,112189,323212,683198,044213,000227,700242,

38、900Receivables287,870335,150318,872321,756349,038349,000349,000349,000Inventories8,7226,0206,3686,1286,9797,5007,7007,800Others164,180171,031167,753165,427175,955175,900175,900175,900Total fixed Assets730,374734,304802,637815,805788,008829,900858,600885,100Tangible asset505,745492,545502,321518,1235

39、60,240602,300631,200657,900Intangible asset59,20660,087128,173119,45566,59166,40066,20066,000Securities and others165,423181,672172,143178,227161,177161,200161,200161,200Total Assets1,377,4431,453,6171,484,9531,521,8001,518,0241,575,3001,618,9001,660,700Total current Liabilities437,449491,940440,366

40、438,468445,241445,200445,200445,200Payables161,414177,519158,563162,697173,611173,600173,600173,600Short term debt, etc.46,81383,39762,29160,60645,21345,20045,20045,200Others229,222231,024219,512215,165226,417226,400226,400226,400Total fixed Liabilities430,040411,539506,568530,346525,288556,500565,700572,900Long-term debt, etc.269,037245,969305,955334,724352,013383,300392,500399,700Others161,003165,570200,613195,622173,275173,200173,200173,200Total LiabilitiesNet Assets509,954550,137538,018552,985547,494573,600608,000642,600Shareholders Equity497,599497,490521,15852