中国-休闲商品与服务业-中国出境旅游：质量支出大于数量支出.docx

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1、9 December 2019Global ResearchEquitiesEquitiesGlobalLeisure Goods & ServicesEric LinAnalyst +86-21-3866 8865Qian YuAnalyst +86-213-866 8684Angus ChanAnalyst +852-2971 7530China Outbound TravelUBS Evidence Lab inside: spending on quality over quantityWho are the winners in the 10th UBS Evidence Lab o

2、utbound travel survey?We found three interesting points about Chinese outbound travellers from the 10th UBS Evidence Lab survey: 1) travel intention remains flat YoY; 2) preference for short- haul destinations is higher than for long-haul; and 3) per-trip travel budgets are higher. Overall, we expec

3、t China outbound travel growth (excluding HK and Macau) to slow from 15% in 2018 to 12% in 2019E and 8% CAGR in 2020-21E, while expecting growth for different markets to diverge significantly. We also believe Chinese outbound travellers are focusing more on quality of their trips rather than quantit

4、y, which in our view would be positive for full-service airlines, department stores, and starred hotels.HK a drag on overall outbound travel market growthIn October 2019, UBS Evidence Lab surveyed 3,530 residents of tier 1-4 cities in China. The average number of outbound trips planned for the next

5、12 months by T1/2 residents remained flat YoY at 2.3 trips, while for T3/4 residents was down to 2.0 trips. Survey results show a decline for both Hong Kong and Macau, which we attribute to the ongoing protests in Hong Kong. We view this as a drag on the overall growth of Chinas outbound travel mark

6、et, though it could be a positive for short-haul destinations due to substitution effect.Travel intention skewed toward short-haul destinationsIn terms of popularity, Japan remains the most popular destination, with 29% of respondents planning to visit in the next 12 months. Korea rose one position

7、to second with the highest mindshare gain (+7ppt YoY to 28%). Thailand also rose one place to third, though its mindshare fell slightly. Australia dropped three places to fifth, consistent with a broad fall in the popularity of long-haul destinations (except some European countries).Budget recovery

8、signals more quality-oriented travellersWhile actual spending continues to decline, planned budget for future travel rose a significant 27% YoY, led by higher spending on entertainment, food and accommodation. Shopping budget also rose, though less than other categories as the shift to leisure conti

9、nues. We believe Chinese outbound tourists are increasingly willing to invest in the quality of their trips, as evidenced by higher preference for full-service airlines, starred hotels and department stores. We list our most and least preferred stocks with exposure to China outbound-travel below.Fig

10、ure 1: Summary of stocks exposed to China outbound travelSource: UBS estimatesCompanyReuters codeRatingPT (LC) Exposure to China outbound travelAir China - H/A0753.HK/601111.SSBuy8.90/11.00 Destination for all of its new capacity in Japan is Tokyo, making it more defensive on airfares.China Eastern

11、Air-H/A0670.HK/60115.SSBuy5.20/7.50 Largest carrier on China-Japan routes which contributes half of its profitShanghai Int Airport600009.SSBuy86.28 We expect net profit contribution from duty-free to rise to 90%+ in the next three years.CITS601888.SSBuygg 36 Waiting for the policy relaxations on Chi

12、nese outbound travellers shopping at downtown duty- free shops.Minor InternationalMINT.BKBuy45 00 Acquisition-driven strategy and position as one of the largest hospitality groups in Asia Pacific make it a prime beneficiary of the structural growth in Chinese outbound travel.Trip TCOM.ONeutral35 00

13、We believe Trip will continue to face macro and geopolitical uncertainties in the near term, and we only see growth start to improve in 2H20E.Sydney AirportSYD.AXNeutral8 50 The survey data is incrementally negative for Sydney Airport and suggests there will be headwinds from Chinese travel in the n

14、ear-term and into 2020Airports of ThailandAOT.BKSell63.50 We expect recovery of Chinese visitation but traffic growth limited by slot constraintsAuckland Int AirportAIA.NZSell7 25 Our negative view on passenger growth mainly relates to FY20, but this may spread into FY21 if - NZ cant maintain its sh

15、are of China outbound travelThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 45. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should beIn the October 2019 survey, the

16、 result for retention rates1 was mixed. Among the most popular destinations, Japan, Korea and Thailand all had a 4-5ppt upsurge in retention rates. Taiwan had the highest increase in retention rate, but travellers that visited other destinations in P6M have very low intention of visiting Taiwan in N

17、12M (6-14%).Figure 13: Retention rates fortop destinationsTravelled to in the P6M (from Apr*l9 to Sep-19)KoreaJapanUSTaiwanAustraliaThailandNZMaldivesSingaporeIntention to visit in N12MKorea46%32%32%26%28%25%29%18%Japan43%28%28%35%us19%23%39%14%35%15%18%22%Taiwan34%14%Australia1 J /O21%29%17%31%19%3

18、0%16%28%Thailand22%22%21%26%27%30%19,17%19%NZ15%15%18%28%24%20%Maldives15%15%22%15%20%20%24%Singapore4 4 Q/14 /b19%19%16%27%16%33%16%23%Source: UBS Evidence LabFigure 14: Changes in retention rates (ppt, YoY)86420-2-47-5alodE6s ZN snSEPcun 星 pue=l cualo 上 US.C ucuMrol6 8 0 2- -1 1Source: UBS Evidenc

19、e Lab1 We measure the retention rate as the percentage of respondents who intend to return to the same country/region they had visited in the past six months.UBS ResearchFinding 5: Actual travel spending continued to decline, while planned budget recoveredFigure 15: Total spending pertrip (Rmb)Actua

20、l spendingYoY growth (%, RHS)Source: UBS Evidence LabFigure 16: Planned budget per trip (Rmb)Planned BudgetYoY growth (%, RHS)Source: UBS Evidence LabChina Outbound TourismPIVOTAL QUESTIONS个Q: How has the travel behaviour of Chinese outbound travellers changed?UBS VIEWWe believe Chinese outbound tou

21、rists are increasingly willing to invest in the quality of their trips rather than making more visits. We think this could be a positive for full-service airlines, department stores, and starred hotels, but negative for LCCs and budget hotels.EVIDENCEWhile actual spending dropped, planned budget for

22、 future travel increased significantly (27% YoY), led by higher investment in entertainment, food and accommodation. Respondents indicate lower usage for LCCs and higher preference for starred hotels.Turnaround in travel spending?In past surveys, both average spending on last outbound trip and plann

23、ed average budget for the next trip were trending down. While the actual spending decline continues (Rmb28,500, -8% YoY), planned budget rose 27% YoY to Rmb29,400. Forthe first time since the start of the survey, planned budget has surpassed actual spending.However, for tourists who travelled in P6M

24、 and are planning to travel in N12M (the overlap of P6M and N12M travellers), total planned budget for next outbound trip is 18% lower than actual spending on last trip. The budget decline is primarily due to the intention to spend less on shopping, which we believe could be due to respondents5 tend

25、ency to underestimate their likely spending on shopping: the shopping budget reported in the October 2018 survey is 37% lower than the actual spending on shopping reported in the October 2019survey.Aside from shopping, P6M and N12M travellers reported planning to spend more on all other categories i

26、n their next outbound travel, while N12M-only travellers (those who plan to travel in N12M but did not travel in P6M) report even more aggressive budgets planning.Figure 17: Actual spending and planned budget of travellers who travelled P6M and plan to travel N12MFigure 18: Actual spending in Octobe

27、r 2019 survey vs planned budget in October 2018 survey Actual spending Planned BudgetSource: UBS Evidence Lab Actual spending Oct-19 Planned budegt Oct-18Source: UBS Evidence LabActual spending on shopping declined the most, down 11% YoY, followed by air ticket, food and accommodation, down 5-8%. En

28、tertainment was largely stable.Planned future budget differed from actual spending and increased across all categories to varying degrees. Entertainment, food and accommodation rose the most, up 43%/41%/37% YoY. We believe the increase in planned budget could be due to Chinese travellers paying more

29、 attention to the quality of their trips rather than quantity, as evidenced by higher preference for full-service airlines, starred hotels, and shopping in department stores.Actual spending on shopping declined the most, down 11% YoY, followed by air ticket, food and accommodation, down 5-8%. Entert

30、ainment was largely stable.Planned future budget differed from actual spending and increased across all categories to varying degrees. Entertainment, food and accommodation rose the most, up 43%/41%/37% YoY. We believe the increase in planned budget could be due to Chinese travellers paying more att

31、ention to the quality of their trips rather than quantity, as evidenced by higher preference for full-service airlines, starred hotels, and shopping in department stores.Finding 6: Planned budget for entertainment, food and accommodation up the most amid consumption upgradeFigure 19: YoY change in a

32、ctual spendingFigure 19: YoY change in actual spendingFigure 20: YoY change in planned budgets Oct-18Oct-19Source: UBS Evidence Lab Oct-18 Oct-19Source: UBS Evidence LabIn terms of shopping channels, department store gained 3ppt and 9ppt mindshare in popular and most preferred shopping channel, whic

33、h could partially explain the higher shopping budget. Duty-free shopping at airports outside China is expected to decline, falling from third popular shopping channel to fifth. Shopping at domestic airports was up.Figure 22: Most preferred shopping channels in N12MFigure 21: Popular shopping channel

34、s in N12Mairport)airport)domestic airportsdomestic airportsairports of other countriesairports of other countries Oct-18 surveyOct-19 survey Oct-18 surveyOct-19 surveySource: UBS Evidence LabSource: UBS Evidence LabSource: UBS Evidence LabIn the October 2019 survey, fewer T1 /2 travellers showed a p

35、reference for LCCs in outbound travel in at least one of the following circumstances. Top 3 preferred airline brandsAirline taken for outbound travel in P6M Airline considered for outbound travel in N12MAmong other T1/2 respondents, there was an increase in choosing unlikely and very unlikely to use

36、 LCCs in the future.Figure 24: Likeliness to use LCCsFigure 23: Shown preference for LCCs Oct-18 survey Oct-19 survey100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%7%20%72%13%19%68%11%18%71%Oct-18 surveyOct-19 surveyP6MOct-18 survey Oct-19 surveyN12M Likely & very likely Neutral Unlikely & very unlikelySource: UB

37、S Evidence LabSource: UBS Evidence LabThe survey results showed a similar trend for accommodation, with planned budget up 37% YoY and an upgrade from serviced apartments, hostels and backpacker accommodation to 4/5-star hotels.Figure 25: Accommodation type in P6MFigure 26: Accommodation type in N12M

38、or equivalent(or equivalent apartments back-packers higher)apartmentsor equivalent(or equivalent higher)packers Oct-18 survey Oct-19 survey Oct-18 surveyOct-19 surveyFinding 7: Shift from shopping to leisure continues; dining now ranks second among outbound activitiesFigure 27: Top 2 activities in P

39、6M travelFigure 28: Top 2 activities in N12Mtravel Oct-18 survey Oct-19 surveySource: UBS Evidence Lab Oct-18 survey Oct-19 surveySource: UBS Evidence LabSource: UBS Evidence LabSource: UBS Evidence LabSource: UBS Evidence LabDining rises to second most popular activity of outbound travelSightseeing

40、 regained the top spot for activities, but the percentage of respondents selecting sightseeing as a top-two activity dropped 4ppt and 2ppt for P6M and N12M travellers, respectively. Shopping continues to rank second in P6M, but was overtaken by dining for N12M, which gained 3ppt to 48%.Food and cuis

41、ine as one of the top-three reasons for visiting rose 1ppt/3ppt for P6M/N12M travellers, echoing the findings for top activities. We believe the increasing intention for dining supports our view that Chinese outbound travellers are increasingly focused on the quality of their trips.Figure 30: Top 3

42、reasons for visiting (N12M)Figure 29: Top 3 reasons for visiting (P6M)thereOct-19 survey Oct-18 survey Oct-18 surveythereOct-19 surveySource: UBS Evidence LabSource: UBS Evidence LabThe return of independent travellersFinding 8: Reversal in shift from independent travel to package toursFinding 8: Re

43、versal in shift from independent travel to package toursIn the previous three surveys (April 2018, October 2018 and April 2019), we observed a shift from free independent travel to package tours. However, in the latest survey, the trend appears to have reversed, with the percentage of independent tr

44、avellers up 5ppt/11ppt YoY for P6M/N12M travellers.Figure 31: Type of travel for latest trip-T1/2Type of travel for nexttrip-T1/28%13%20%Oct-18 surveyOct-19survey100%9U%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Oct-18 surveyOct-19 survey100%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Free independent travelPackage tours A combinati

45、on of bothFree independent travelPackage tours A combination of bothSource: UBS Evidence LabSource: UBS Evidence LabFor T3/4 travellers as well, the usage of package tours for the latest trip during P6M, but will likely recover for the next trip-similar to the trend we observed in previous waves for

46、 T1/2 respondents.Figure 32: Type of travel for latest trip-T3/4Type of travel for nexttrip-T3/4100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Oct-18 surveyOct-19 survey100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%15%18%68%14%20%66%Oct-18 surveyOct-19 survey Free independenttravel Packagetours A combination of bothFree indep

47、endent travelPackage tours A combination of bothSource: UBS Evidence LabSource: UBS Evidence LabUBS Researchreturn 个Consumption by Chinese visitors to Japan rose, but travel expenditure value per head declinedThe latest survey shows appetite for travel to Japan was maintained, but purpose of travel