全球-海洋运输业-全球海运业：绿色航运——现在都上船了.docx

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1、Global ResearchGlobal Marine SectorUBS Evidence Lab inside: green shipping - all on board now?9M and counting to IMO 2020; UBS Evidence Lab shipping survey highlightsThe second UBS Evidence Lab survey of 50 shipping executives suggests the shipping industry is better prepared for the upcoming marine

2、 environment rules than it was in the inaugural survey in April 2018 (see our Queries rsuort here). The survey supports our view that IMO 2020 could boost refiners* profits, a view not shared by all given risk of low compliance, which we also disagree with. The sharp rise in intent to retrofit scrub

3、bers and buy new ships to meet the new rules is a surprise, as is interest to scrap obsolete ships. We move from a negative to a neutral stance on Asian shipping and shipbuilding and are selectively positive on refiners and European capital goods.Reaffirm refiners and selected European capital goods

4、 as possible beneficiaries Importantly, 79% of respondents plan to adhere to the new sulphur cap (IMO 2020) by January 2020 compared with 64% previously (UBS-e 80%), while compliant fuel is still most preferred to meet IMO 2020 rules, unchanged at 68%. This supports our view that it will boost refin

5、ers profit from H219 (see page 38 for sensitivity analysis to compliance levels). The sharp rise in intent to use scrubbers for IMO 2020 and backend adoption of BWTS in 2019-24 are in line with our positive view on selected suppliers.But move to a more balanced view on Asian shipyards and shippingWe

6、 move forward the bottom of the global new ship order cycle by one year to 2019 as the survey suggests an increase in the intent to buy new ships to comply with IMO 2020 (28%), albeit from a low base (9%), and general interest in buying new ships from H219. We also expect global fleet utilisation to

7、 rise on increased ship scrapping in 2020-21 due to higher regulatory costs. The survey shows 41% have no fuel cost escalation clauses in their charters. We are selectively positive on dry bulk shipping.Who wins, who loses?We upgrade Yangzijianq Shipbuilding from Neutral to Buy, Samsung Heavy Indust

8、ries from Sell to Neutral and initiate coverage of Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marina Engineering, rating it Neutral. We think it is too early to turn positive on the sector as orders are likely to pick up only at the end of 2019. We are positive on selected European refiners but less so on Asian refiners

9、, given near-term earnings uncertainty. We like Tupras, Saras, SK Innovation, Bharat Petroleum, Reliance Industries and PTT Global Chemical. We view Wartsila and Cargotec as potential beneficiaries of the upcoming marine regulations. We like Pacific Basin Shipping and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines in the ship

10、ping sector.Figure 1: Proportion of fleet compliant with SOX capBAug18 surveyJan19surveyUBS est.100%80%60%40%20%0%79%80%4 April 2019EquitiesGlobalIndustrial40%Current (Jan 2019)Yong-Suk Son,CFAAnalyst +82-2-3702 8804Sven WeierAnalyst +49-69-1369 8278Henri Patricot, CFAAnalyst +33-1-4888 3033Eric Lin

11、Analyst +852-3712 3640Peter GastreichAnalyst +852-2971 6121Tim BushAnalyst +852-2971 6113Magnus Kruber, CFAAnalyst +46-8-453 7311Cheryl Lee, CFAAnalyst +65-6495 5914Jun HaradaAnalyst +81-3-5208 6243Jarrod Castle, CFAAnalyst +44-20-756 88883Yoon ChoAssociateAnalyst +82-2-3702 8805By January 2020Note:

12、 Survey in August 2018 (Wave 1) shows the fleets compliance to both BWTS and SOX regulations. Source: UBS Evidence Lab, UBS estimatesThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Seoul Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 41. UBS does and seeks to do busi

13、ness with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Figure 7: Plan to comply with BWM (multiple choice)Figure 8: Major hurdle for making the fleet 100% compliant wit

14、h SOX cap (multiple choice)Note: Survey in August2018 (Wave 1) shows the fleets compliance to both BWTS and SOX regulations. Source: UBS Evidence LabReplace affected vessel with ships with BWTScompliant shipsSource: UBS Evidence LabWhen asked what the key hurdles to 100% compliance (multiple choice)

15、 are, high cost was the primary reason for the SOX cap rule at 52%. The survey shows uncertainty over best solution and regulation specification has decreased, which answers why there has been an increase in the planned compliance rate, in our view. Interestingly, the lack of installation/shipyard c

16、apacity came in quite low at a 24% response. For BWM, the key hurdle remains uncertainty over regulatory specification, followed by cost.Figure 9: Major hurdle for making the fleet 100% compliant with BWM (multiple choice)Source: UBS Evidence LabInterest in smart/autonomous shipping surprisingly hig

17、hThe survey shows that interest in smart/autonomous shipping is high with an More interest in less disruptive average 77% of respondents stating they are either very interested or somewhat technology interested. The interest was higher for conventional, less disruptive technology such as fleet and e

18、nergy management, as well as big data analysis. InterestedNot interestedFigure 10: Interest in smart/autonomous shipping technology100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%FleetBig datamanagementanalyticsEnergyEquipment Smart navigation AutonomousRemoteSmart docking Unmannedmanagement managementnavigationop

19、erationalremotesupportcontrollingSource: UBS Evidence LabHowever, when asked if the technologies are being used, only an average 17% Interest is high but actual usage is replied that they are using the stated technologies. Asked whether they have plans still low to use the technology, only 26% state

20、d they plan to do so. Again, more conventional technologies are preferred while more disruptive ones such as unmanned remote controlling, autonomous navigation, smart docking are less preferred. This is understandable considering the conservative nature of the industry.Figure 11: Smart/autonomous sh

21、ipping technology usage-now and planned Currently usedPlan to use44%44% 44%Big data analytics Fleet Equipment Smart navigation Energy Remote Smart docking Autonomous Unmanned management managementmanagement operationalnavigation remotesupportcontrollingSource: UBS Evidence LabBut shipping outlook de

22、teriorating at the marginThe majority of respondents are still positive on the industry outlook for the next Majority still positive, but far less six months. However, the survey shows that executives outlook for shipping in thethan beforenext six months has deteriorated at the margin, with 56% posi

23、tive, down from 72% in the previous survey. This is not surprising given the trade war and uncertainties in global macroeconomics. The trend is similar for the freight volume outlook, with 42% responding that volume will increase, down from 57% in the previous survey.Figure 12: Outlook on shipping i

24、ndustry in the next 6 months (single choice)Source: UBS Evidence LabFigure 13: Outlook on freight volume in the next 6 months (single choice)Source: UBS Evidence LabHigher cost likely to lead to increased scrappingOur analysis shows that using compliant fuel (low sulphur marine gas oil or LSMGO) to

25、meet IMO 2020 standards could raise the fuel cost by 34-42% of current freight rate, as we expect compliant fuel price to rise given the sharp increase in demand.Compliant fuel could raise costs by 34-42% of the current freight rateFigure 14: Capesize bulk carrier freight rate sensitivity if LSMGO i

26、s chosen to comply with SOX cap in 2020(US$/t)Fuel price in 2020EW Australia - ChinaBrazil - ChinaIncremental freight costvs currentfreight rateIncremental freight costvs currentfreight rateFreight rate sensitivityLSMGO (base case)6731.59+34%4.94+42%VLSFO (implied*)5640.95+20%2.94+25%Current pricesL

27、SMGO price605W Australia -China freight rate4.65HSFO price403Brazil - China freight rate11.65Note: (*) VLSFO pricing is based on implied blending of 7:1 gasoil to HSFO. Priced as of 29 March 2019. Source: Bloomberg, UBS estimatesMoreover, the survey shows that among those that plan to switch to comp

28、liant fuel oil, 41% responded that whether they can pass on the higher fuel cost depends on market conditions, and only 15% stated they will not be able to pass on the higher cost. However, we believe exposure to market conditions is a risk, especially given a weakening global trade outlook.Figure 1

29、5: Pass on the higher fuel cost to customers or not (single choice)41% exposed to market conditions to pass on higher fuel costsYes, as we expect shipping market to improve, leading to higher freight rate 26%No 15%Exposed to market conditions 41%Yes, as our charter contract allows us to pass on the

30、higher fuel cost59%Source: UBS Evidence LabWe believe the higher cost will likely result in the removal of uneconomical capacity through scrapping, idling and constant slow steaming from 2020, especially of old ships. We forecast 47% of the 15+ year-old fleet could be scrapped in 2019-23, with scrap

31、ping as a percentage of fleet would be largely similaracross ship types, except LNG carriers (LNGC) which we expect to be lower.We assume 47% of 15+ year old fleet could be scrapped in 2019- 23EFigure 16: Age distribution of current global fleet21% of fleet is 15 years or olderSource: Clarksons Rese

32、archFigure 17: Global ship demolition outlook-we expect scrapping to increase from 2020TotaI demolition (LHS)YoY chg (RHS)Source: Clarksons Research, UBS estimatesAnd hence, we expect fleet utilisation and freight rates to improve90%85%80%75%70%65%60%55%50%45%Crude tankersProduct tankersBulkersConta

33、inershipsLNG carriersTotal fleet山cozoz岗ON山Roz山 OZOCXJ山 65Z8SCXJZ.5CXI9SCXI9SZ寸SCXJC05ZCXJSZLsz 05Z%oAs a result, we expect a positive impact on fleet utilisation and freight rates amid a weak demand outlook. We forecast the global fleet utilisation rate to rise for most ship types in 2020-21. Howeve

34、r, we forecast a modest decline in the utilisation rate in 2021 as we expect the LNG carrier (LNGC) utilisation rate to fall due to the sharp rise in orders in 2018. We prefer small bulk shipping to container shipping.Figure 18: Global fleet utilisation rate outlook-we expect the fleet utilisation r

35、ate to improve in 2020Source: Clarksons Research, UBS estimatesUBS ResearchGlobal Marine Sectorreturn 个return 个PIVOTAL QUESTIONSQ: Will regulatory cut-off dates trigger demand for new ships and equipment?UBS VIEWWe expect the start of IMO 2020 regime to be an important catalyst for yards and we fore

36、cast higher demolition to raise freight rates and new ship orders (up 12% YoY). But we forecast scrubber demand to gradually slow and BWTS to firm up only in the second half of the 2019-24 transition period that begins in September 2019.EVIDENCEThe UBS Evidence Lab survey shows increased interest in

37、 buying new ships to comply with IMO 2020 standards, with 28% planning to buy compliant new ships, up from 9% in the previous survey. This comes amid 68% of respondents planning to buy a new ship within three years. The timing of purchase begins from H219 which we view as reasonable, given upcoming

38、marine regulations.Scrubbers, as a planned means of compliance with sulphur rules, have risen to 48% from 21% last year and 50% of respondents have either become slightly or much more willing to buy scrubbers in the past 12 months.BWTS installations are likely to be skewed to the second half of the

39、five-year transition period, with 41% of respondents looking at this time, 33% an even split, and 19% in the first half.WHATS PRICED IN?We believe the market is already pricing in an uptick in new ship orders from 2019 while expecting scrubber demand to remain high, as in 2018, both of which seem bu

40、llish. But we think the market has yet to factor in the full upside to BWTS demand.Highlights from second survey of shipping executivesThe key findings for the shipbuilding and European capital goods industries are: 68% responded that they plan to buy new ships in the next three years with most star

41、ting from H219. More executives are considering purchasing compliant new ships to meet IMO 2020 standards at 28% compared with 9% in the first wave survey. On new ship prices, 44% expect new ship prices to rise in 2019, 38% expected them to remain flat and only 16% expect them to fall. This is reaso

42、nable given the outlook for new ship demand. Our view: For shipyards, we were surprised by the increase in newbuild intent to comply with IMO 2020, although it is from a low base. Also the high interest to buy new ships (68%) is notable but as this is the first wave to ask this question, we will con

43、tinue to monitor this if it materialises. Nonetheless, we raise our new ship order forecasts and pull forward the bottom of the cycle by a year to 2019. Scrubbers as a planned mean of compliance with sulphur rules have risen to 48% from 21% last year and 50% of respondents have either become slightl

44、y or much more willing to buy scrubbers in the past 12 months. 67% of the respondents opting for low-sulphur fuel would require a fuel spread of over US$250 to invest in scrubbers (US$210 current spread). BWTS installations are likely to be skewed to the second half of the five-year transition perio

45、d with 41% of respondents looking at this period, 33% an even split, and 19% viewing the first half. Our view: For suppliers, the scrubber survey suggests higher penetration than our below 20% but we do not revise our scrubber forecast as multiple answers were possible. The backend skew in adopting

46、BWTS is in line with our view.68% of respondents have no plans to buy new ships in the next three yearsNew ship demand stronger than expectedThe UBS Evidence Lab survey shows that 68% of the respondents are planning to either definitely (14%), very likely (36%) or somewhat likely (18%) order newship

47、s in the next three years. Only 14% replied as having no plans. This is more bullish than we had expected. But as this is the first time this question is asked in the survey, we will monitor this optimistic outlook to see if it converts to actual orders.Figure 19: Probability of purchasing new build vessels in the next 3 years (single choice)Source: UBS Evidence LabNew ship orders could pick up from H219Replacement cycle and expansion of fleet key reasons for purchaseOn timing, the survey shows new orders to be immaterial in H119 but likely to pick up from H219. The year-to-date global n